This has been noted as being almost like a game of rock-paper-scissors:

• Toomey beats Specter, 45/40.
• Specter beats Sestak, 46/42.
• Sestak ties Toomey, 38/37.

Some other numbers for Specter: 46/52 favorable/unfavorable (Rasmussen);  31/59 deserves-reelection (Susquehanna).  The Susquehanna poll also has him leading Sestak in the primary 44/16 and tied with Toomey 42/41, but that may be the usual registered/likely voter difference.  All in all, it’s starting to look like maybe Specter should have taken the hint and announced that he wasn’t going to run for re-election after he switched parties…

Moe Lane

PS: Pat Toomey for Senate.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

With all of the delicacy, charm and raw political skill that they showed in trying to get Gov. David Paterson of NY to quit.

White House Is Taking a More Aggressive Role in State Races

WASHINGTON — The White House’s intervention in the race for New York governor is the latest evidence of how President Obama and his top advisers are taking an increasingly direct role in contests across the country, but their assertiveness has bruised some Democrats who suggest it could undercut Mr. Obama’s appeal with voters tired of partisan politics.

[snip]

More than anything, though, the interventions reflect a controlling style of this White House and of Mr. Emanuel, who employed similar hard-ball tactics to recruit candidates when he was running the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In addition to Mr. Emanuel, the White House political director, Patrick Gaspard, and deputy chief of staff, Jim Messina, keep close watch on all political races.

Via @PatrickRuffini: bolding mine, and reflective of Erick Erickson’s recent first look at ACORN CEO Bertha Lewis’s Rolodex.  One may be forgiven for wondering whether… input on this was sought.

Read More →

[UPDATE]: And if you think those numbers are bad, wait until Specter caves on card check to appease his new owners.  His constituents are purely going to hate that.

Via Hot Air Headlines, nobody loves a traitor.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.

[snip]

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg Luksik 47 - 6 percent.

[snip]

In other trial matchups Specter would defeat Luksik 47 - 40 percent, while Toomey would edge Sestak 39 - 35 percent.

That last bit may be what dooms Sestak’s candidacy… except, of course, that the Democrats are already trying their best to sabotage his (and Maloney’s, over in NY) primary challenge anyway. Meanwhile, the NRSC is backing Toomey, thus avoiding the bloody primary that we were all expecting and dreading before Specter changed sides.

So: thanks for not retiring, Arlen! Make sure that you vote for health care rationing!

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The good news: Pat Toomey’s (R Cand, PA) campaign (donate here) is reporting that he raised 1.6 million dollars in the second quarter of 2009.

Mr. Toomey’s strong first campaign quarter fundraising compares favorably with those of successful U.S. Senate challengers in the last election. In fact, he has raised more than every successful 2008 challenger. In his first quarter as a Senate candidate, Mr. Toomey has raised more than candidates Al Franken (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kay Hagen (D-NC), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Mark Begich (D-AK), all of whom went on to defeat incumbent U.S. senators

The other good news: Joe Sestak’s (D Cand, PA) primary campaign against Arlen Specter (Arlen Specter, PA) is being reasonably well funded.

Read More →

This is good news.

Businessman Steven Welch (R) announced Monday that he will run for the 7th district seat currently held by Rep. Joe Sestak (D), who is expected to run for Senate.

A friend of mine knows Steven well and highly recommends him. The district leans slightly Democrat, but in the coming year it could very well become a Republican pick up, given current polling trends.

The GOP did not get the guy they wanted, Patrick Meehan. Meehan is running for Governor.

Nonetheless, Welch is a self-funder in an expensive market and makes for a good fit in the district.

A little while back Greenberg* Quinlan Rosner put out a poll that showed Specter leading 55-34 over Sestak in the primary. Interestingly, (via DoubleplusUndead, via @JustKarl), one hope for Sestak is apparently that he actually leads Specter among Democrats who know both candidates, 52-44.  The difference is due to the fact that Sestak is only known to about 30% of the PA Dem electorate.

Full disclosure: I don’t care who wins this primary, just as long as it’s won ugly, expensively, and with a lot of promising political careers permanently blighted by petty spite and bitter grudges.  That being said, both candidates have complications:

• Sestak - more accurately, Sestak’s supporters - are probably assuming that getting his recognition numbers up will not erode his lead among voters aware of both.  That may be justified; on the other hand, most of the voters aware of both are probably also more committed or ideological Democrats.  Assuming Sestak runs, how more moderate and conservative voters will react once they take a good look at him will be interesting to see.
• Specter’s major problem?  If  you believe this poll, he faces the problem that if he wants to win the primary he has to start voting the Democratic party line on everything.  No more contrary votes for him, which is going to make it problematical when/if he gets out of the primary to face Pat Toomey**.

This is not the primary campaign that the VRWC contemplated happening a year ago, but it’s got its points.  Believe the internals of that poll, and either way Toomey will be facing a candidate that’s going to be squarely identifying himself with a Democrat who’s more palatable to his base than, perhaps, the Pennsylvanian electorate.  And it’ll be interesting to see just how the parties are perceived next year, because even right this second they’re not really all that far apart…

Moe Lane

*Yeah, the same guy that gave Rahm Emanuel free rent while Emanuel was doing DCCC business with his company. And whose wife put up that legislation designed to gut the organic food industry. What’s your point?

**Who, by the way, comes across as pretty sharp when you talk to him.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

When the Democrat leaders in Washington were negotiating Arlen Specter’s party switch, they were eager to assure him that they would do all in their power to ensure him a clear path to the Democratic nomination for Senate. It’s becoming clear that in doing so, they promised something far outside their power to deliver.

In the 2010 race for U.S. Senate, by a 63/28 margin most Democrats believe Specter should face a challenge from one or more other Democrats in the 2010 Democratic primary in order to secure the nomination (9% are undecided). This suggests most Democrats want Specter to earn his rightful place as the Democratic nominee despite comments by Democratic Party officials and leaders that Specter should be given a free ride in the primary.

In a potential general election match-up between Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat Toomey, Specter leads Toomey by a 46/37 margin (13% are undecided and 4% would support someone else). Among Republicans, Toomey leads Specter 69/21 while among Democrats Specter leads Toomey by a 65/14 margin. Among “super voter” or those who voted in 3 or 4 of the last 4 general elections the race is a near toss-up with Specter leading by a narrow 42/39 margin, while among those who voted in only 1 or 2 of the last 4 elections Specter holds a commanding 50/36 lead. This means lower turnout favors the Republican nominee in this contest, while higher turnout favors the Democrat.

Read More →

It’s not ‘official’, but unless Sestak is sufficiently a practical joker as to send his supporters handwritten phony fund-raising notes, it’s happening. Guess that means that Arlen Specter is going to have to face a tough primary battle after all.

Meanwhile…

Moderate Pa. Republicans warming to Toomey

Moderate Republican leaders have stopped publicly pushing to recruit a less-conservative alternative to front-runner Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, a sign that he has begun to calm concerns about his electability.

Toomey has redoubled efforts to court skeptics in the party establishment in the two weeks since former Gov. Tom Ridge declined to enter the race for the GOP nomination despite the pleadings of prominent moderates.

Karma. It’s what’s for dinner.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Now, meet your likely primary challengers:

Read More →