Looking at the Cook Political Report’s latest competitive race chart is in itself informative - the short version is that of the top 108 competitive races, the following ratios apply:
| Dem | GOP | |
| Likely D | 45 | 0 |
| Leans D | 23 | 1 |
| Toss-up D | 12 | 0 |
| Toss-up R | 0 | 3 |
| Leans R | 1 | 8 |
| Likely R | 0 | 15 |
| Total | 81 | 27 |
…but there’s some interesting things that can be seen with a little sorting. Below is a chart of competitive seats, sorted by Cook Partisan Rating:
Give House Democrats credit: their latest version of the health care rationing bill actually moved the numbers a little. Just not in the way that they hoped.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi introduced the House version of health care reform legislation last week, but most voters are still opposed to the effort.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down from 45% a week ago but unchanged from two weeks ago.
Much obliged; the drop in support from the last time the Democrats unveiled a version of health care rationing was starting to abate, so having this handy reminder of who’s running Congress these days - and the implications - is really, really handy. Some people might quibble that if Democrats wanted to be really helpful they’d have scheduled their latest announcement last Saturday, but I’m not greedy. This will do nicely for tomorrow’s races.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
And if you thought that yesterday’s semi-cryptic blog post from the former was just some prepare-the-Democrats-for-some-bad-news, and not an attempt to raise Republican hopes… well, you were right.
Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey’s next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.
In other words, the partisan Democratic polling firm is reporting that the race has shifted in Christie’s direction by three points, and now has a lead barely out of the MoE. Rasmussen likewise reports that Christie has increased his lead to 46/43, with Daggett at 7%, which is down four from last week. But here’s what may be the important part of that report:
Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.
A week to go. Word is that Quinnipiac will have out something later this week; in the meantime, expect New Jersey to get inundated with even more campaign advertising and national scrutiny .
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Rasmussen hasn’t written the article yet - but they put the new numbers on their BY THE NUMBERS page. And it’s not pretty for Democrats:
| October 2009 | September 2009 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Health Care | 40% | 46% | (6) | 44% | 44% | - | (6) |
| Education | 38% | 43% | (5) | 45% | 40% | 5 | (10) |
| Social Security | 37% | 45% | (8) | 43% | 41% | 2 | (10) |
| Abortion | 35% | 47% | (12) | 37% | 44% | (7) | (5) |
| Economy | 35% | 49% | (14) | 39% | 47% | (8) | (6) |
| Taxes | 35% | 50% | (15) | 40% | 48% | (8) | (7) |
| Iraq | 31% | 50% | (19) | 37% | 47% | (10) | (9) |
| Nat’l Security | 31% | 54% | (23) | 39% | 51% | (12) | (11) |
| Gov’t Ethics | 29% | 33% | (4) | 34% | 35% | (1) | (3) |
| Immigration | 33% | 40% | (7) | 33% | 45% | (12) | 5 |
Note the dives on… everything, really, except immigration issues: the GOP increased its lead in 9 out of 10 categories since last month. But particularly note the Health Care, Social Security, Economy, and Taxes numbers. Does the Democratic Party feel like demonizing their opponents on health care rationing some more? - because I think that the GOP can somehow manage to find the strength to keep bearing up under the Democrats’ scorn.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
It would seem that finally putting out all the various versions, alternates, and fevered mutterings of what the Democrats are trying to call ‘health care reform’ has helped to clarify matters for voters some more. It’s just not clarifying matters in a fashion that will make the current ruling party happy. Rasmussen’s latest snapshot:
Now that the Senate Finance Committee has passed its version of health care reform, 42% of voters nationwide favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down two points from a week ago and down four from the week before.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% are opposed to the plan.
It is perhaps unkind to point out two details about the 42%:
…but it’s probably necessary. Watching the… seven*?… Democratic factions try to reconcile the mess that they’ve created for themselves should be remarkably engrossing.
Moe Lane
*Well, you’ve got House progressives & Senate liberals; like vulnerable House members and ‘moderate’ Democratic Senators, there’s the House/Senate split on outlook to consider. So that’s four. Then there’s the House’s and the Senate’s leadership, with the two groups being barely civil to each other these days. That’s two more. And then there’s the White House, who pretty much caused this mess by letting the other six factions have free rein over the process. So, seven.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Let’s keep this one simple (H/T: AoSHQ Headlines):
Q. Why is it that a bill to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act - one with more than 90 Congressional supporters - will apparently not even make it to the House floor?
A. Because Rep. Barney Franks - who is not one of the supporters - was blunt about why he wasn’t a supporter: the Democrats don’t have the votes for it.
Q. Don’t the Democrats control Congress?
A. Yes.
(pause)
Q. Didn’t they campaign on this is…
A. (Interrupting) They lied.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
MSNBC’s First Read reported last night that the Obama Administration is now saying that illegal immigrants will be specifically prevented from obtaining coverage under the president’s health care proposal. The chage comes on the heels of Rep. Joe Wilson’s (R-SC) “You lie!” outburst during Obama’s health care address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday. Although the president denied from the rostrum of the House chamber that illegals would be covered by the plan, the Administration thought it necessary to make changes to the existing proposal in order to clarify the issue.
But the bigger story the MSNBC missed with its focus on the Wilson flap is found in the second bullet point sent out by the White House last night. The Obama Administration inadvertently confirmed that the president’s plan will begin a slow take over of the health care system by the federal government. How else could this be interpreted?
“Undocumented immigrants would be able to buy insurance in the non-exchange private market, just as they do today. That market will shrink as the exchange takes hold, but it will still exist and will be subject to reforms such as the bans on pre-existing conditions and caps.”
In other words, as the federal exchange takes hold, plans not complying with the federal government’s standards will start to disappear. Eventually, it won’t make any sense for any company to offer health insurance as the federal requirements will make the business of providing health insurance far too expensive, and the premiums far too expensive for the insured.
The result will be that everyone will wind up with no other “choice” than the so-called public option, just as the Administration has planned all along. It took Wilson “calling out” the president’s “misinformation” and “lies” to finally get the Administration to admit it.
The Democrats may simply have to accept the fact that they no longer can automatically count on the trust of the American people on any topic.
| September 2009 | August 2009 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Health Care | 44% | 44% | - | 41% | 44% | (3) | 3 |
| Education | 45% | 40% | 5 | 38% | 41% | (3) | 8 |
| Social Security | 43% | 41% | 2 | 39% | 43% | (4) | 6 |
| Abortion | 37% | 44% | (7) | 36% | 46% | (10) | 3 |
| Economy | 39% | 47% | (8) | 40% | 46% | (6) | (2) |
| Taxes | 40% | 48% | (8) | 35% | 51% | (16) | 8 |
| Iraq | 37% | 47% | (10) | 42% | 42% | - | (10) |
| Nat’l Security | 39% | 51% | (12) | 43% | 47% | (4) | (8) |
| Gov’t Ethics | 34% | 35% | (1) | 34% | 31% | 3 | (4) |
| Immigration | 33% | 45% | (12) | 35% | 43% | (8) | (4) |
Seven out of ten, and one tie. The good news for the Democrats is that they made some decent recoveries from August’s numbers; the bad news is that August was really bad for them, so they’re still trying to make up ground. The most important/topical number there - health care - is probably their brightest spot, but being equally trusted on an issue when you’ve spent the last few years being clearly trusted is not the most welcome news in the world. Particularly when ‘trusting the Democrat’ does not exclude ‘trusting the Democrat to vote the Republican position.’
Moving on: nice to see that the Government Ethics numbers are starting to consistently reflect objective reality, not to mention the Economy ones. I’m interested how much of that is reflected by cap-and-trade - and how bringing that issue back will affect the Taxes question.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Clearly in reference to Jim Cramer’s I’ve-been-saving-this-for-months revenge clip* of a few days ago, the Gallup organization would like you to know that there’s no historical relationship between a President’s approval rating and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Mind you, that wasn’t the argument that got made - Cramer was arguing that this specific President’s disapproval ratings (via Gallup!) were being reflected in the S&P 500 going up - but nonetheless, Gallup felt the need to do that analysis.
Well. Thanks for letting us know.
Moe Lane
PS: Yes, I see the large holes in Cramer’s theory. So does Cramer, probably. It’s still funny that Gallup felt the need to do some repair work here. Clumsily.
I think that this is going to sting the Democrats a little.
| August 2009 | July 2009 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Health Care | 41% | 44% | (3) | 46% | 42% | 4 | (7) |
| Education | 38% | 41% | (3) | 41% | 38% | 3 | (6) |
| Social Security | 39% | 43% | (4) | 37% | 42% | (5) | 1 |
| Abortion | 36% | 46% | (10) | 39% | 46% | (7) | (3) |
| Economy | 40% | 46% | (6) | 41% | 46% | (5) | (1) |
| Taxes | 35% | 51% | (16) | 36% | 52% | (16) | - |
| Iraq | 42% | 42% | - | 41% | 45% | (4) | 4 |
| Nat’l Security | 43% | 47% | (4) | 40% | 49% | (9) | 5 |
| Gov’t Ethics | 34% | 31% | 3 | 33% | 34% | (1) | 4 |
| Immigration | 35% | 43% | (8) | 34% | 40% | (6) | (2) |
Eight out of ten again, and the only sour note is that last month’s Democratic-flavored scandals were not sufficiently public enough to overcome what appears to be the built-in public bias on Government Ethics. On the other hand, we just took first place in health care for the first time in two years, and it’s still fifteen months to November 2010. So, room for development, there. As for the Iraq question… well, for both countries’ sake I’m just as pleased to see that it’s reflecting a relatively quiet situation. The way that our domestic numbers are racking up I’m just as happy to concentrate on those right now anyway.
So, you have to wonder: at what point will the White House decide that it’s time to fold and start a new hand?
Moe Lane
(H/T: @JamesRichardson)
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
[UPDATE] Rasmussen finally put up an article.
Short version: the public trusts the GOP over the Democrats 8-for-10 at this point, and we flipped the Abortion and Social Security categories. That being said, the numbers readjusted themselves in the Democrats’ favor 5-for-10 as compared to last month’s.
| July 2009 | June 2009 | |||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Issue | Democrats | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Health Care | 46% | 42% | 4 | Health Care | 47% | 37% | 10 | (6) |
| Education | 41% | 38% | 3 | Education | 44% | 37% | 7 | (4) |
| Social Security | 37% | 42% | (5) | Social Security | 43% | 37% | 6 | (11) |
| Abortion | 39% | 46% | (7) | Abortion | 41% | 41% | - | (7) |
| Economy | 41% | 46% | (5) | Economy | 39% | 45% | (6) | 1 |
| Taxes | 36% | 52% | (16) | Taxes | 39% | 44% | (5) | (11) |
| Iraq | 41% | 45% | (4) | Iraq | 37% | 45% | (8) | 4 |
| Nat’l Security | 40% | 49% | (9) | Nat’l Security | 36% | 51% | (15) | 6 |
| Gov’t Ethics | 33% | 34% | (1) | Gov’t Ethics | 29% | 35% | (6) | 5 |
| Immigration | 34% | 40% | (6) | Immigration | 29% | 43% | (14) | 8 |
Rasmussen has only put these numbers out here so far, unless I’ve missed it. The shift down for the Democrats may be a trend; it may also be an inevitable result of the Republicans improving their position in eight out of ten categories from May to June. Either way, I don’t think that it’s an accident that most of the GOP increases are in areas that have been in the news for the last month; particularly taxes, and particularly health care. The Democrats may want to consider adopting a strategy of visibly doing nothing at all, on anything…
Moe Lane
PS: Also, the upcoming monthly financial reports for the various committees are going to be very interesting.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
One of Barack Obama’s often repeated promises made on the campaign trail was that he would not raise taxes on the midddle class:
“I can make a firm pledge,” he said in Dover, N.H., on Sept. 12. “Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes.”
He repeatedly vowed “you will not see any of your taxes increase one single dime.”
Some Obama critics have charged that by signing a law last spring that raised the tobacco tax nearly 62 cents on a pack of cigarettes, the president broke his promise. That tax hits the middle-class and the poor especially hard since most smokers fall in one of those categories. Obama apologists argued that the number of smokers is rapidly declining, and the tax only falls on those who engage in a practice which harms themselves, so it really doesn’t affect the majority of the middle class.
Let’s see them spin their way out of this one:
President Barack Obama made another promise this week that you can take to the bank. Well, you can take it there, but forget about cashing it. Like so many of Obama promises, it’s just another lie. Speaking to the American Medical Association Monday, the president insisted that his health care plan will let Americans keep the coverage they have:
“No matter how we reform health care, we will keep this promise to the American people. If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor, period. If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what.”
It sounded so nice, he said it more than twice:
“If you like what you’re getting, keep it,” Obama said. “Nobody is forcing you to shift.”
As with much the prevaricator-in-chief says, those periods he punctuated his assurances with have morphed into commas, followed by a lot of buts, howevers, and excepts.
So, last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than Democrats on four critical topics, and trusted more and/or tied on five. It got a surprising amount of play, given that I hadn’t really thought all that much about it when I wrote it. Besides, it was one month, compared to a very, very, very bad month for Republicans; the numbers could very easily shift by the next month.
| Jun-09 | May-09 | ||||||
| Issue | Democrats | GOP | Diff | Democrats | GOP | Diff | Shift |
| Health Care | 47% | 37% | 10 | 53% | 35% | 18 | 8 |
| Education | 44% | 37% | 7 | 49% | 36% | 13 | 6 |
| Social Security | 43% | 37% | 6 | 48% | 39% | 9 | 3 |
| Abortion | 41% | 41% | - | 41% | 41% | - | - |
| Economy | 39% | 45% | (6) | 44% | 43% | 1 | 7 |
| Taxes | 39% | 44% | (5) | 41% | 47% | (6) | (1) |
| Iraq | 37% | 45% | (8) | 41% | 43% | (2) | 6 |
| Nat’l Security | 36% | 51% | (15) | 41% | 48% | (7) | 8 |
| Gov’t Ethics | 29% | 35% | (6) | 40% | 29% | 11 | 17 |
| Immigration | 29% | 43% | (14) | 36% | 37% | (1) | 13 |
Examining Rasmussen’s trust-on-issues numbers from month to month is interesting enough, but I was interested in the long term trends. So I put together this chart comparing this month’s numbers with those of last October’s*:
| October 2008 | May 2009 | ||||||
| Issue | Dem | GOP | Diff | Dem | GOP | Diff | Cum Shift |
| Economy | 51% | 38% | 13 | 44% | 43% | 1 | (12) |
| Govt Ethics | 40% | 30% | 10 | 40% | 29% | 11 | 1 |
| National Sec. | 47% | 44% | 3 | 41% | 48% | (7) | (10) |
| Education | 53% | 34% | 19 | 49% | 36% | 13 | (6) |
| Healthcare | 54% | 34% | 20 | 53% | 35% | 18 | (2) |
| Taxes | 47% | 42% | 5 | 41% | 47% | (6) | (11) |
| Iraq | 47% | 42% | 5 | 41% | 43% | (2) | (7) |
| Social Security | 49% | 37% | 12 | 48% | 39% | 9 | (3) |
| Abortion | 47% | 38% | 9 | 41% | 41% | - | (9) |
| Immigration | 40% | 38% | 2 | 36% | 37% | (1) | (3) |
I’m savoring the sweet irony here, because the AP was so tucked away in Obama’s hip pocket during the campaign, dissing Sarah Palin and all. Now their reporter Calvin Woodward files this story:
Timothy Geithner, President Obama’s tax cheat Treasury Secretary, doesn’t pay attention to his facts any better than he pays his taxes.
The Associated Press reports Geithner claims Obama has inherited “the worst fiscal situation in American history.”
The facts disprove Geithner’s statement. The January unemployment rate was 7.6%. The revised gross domestic product showed economic activity declined at a 6.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008. Those two statistics demonstrate that far from being the worst in history, this recession still isn’t as bad as 1982 recession which saw 10.8 % unemployment and a 6.4% decline in GDP.
Secretary Geithner also tried to justify Obama’s borrow and tax spending orgy by falsely asserting President Bush “was unwilling to make long-term investments in health care, energy and education.”
Perhaps Geithner doesn’t remember President Bush’s prescription drug program. Perhaps Geithner doesn’t remember President Bush’s advanced energy initiative, with increased funding for clean coal technologies, solar power, wind power, ethanol - including cellulosic ethanol, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. Perhaps Geithner doesn’t remember that federal education spending grew dramatically under President Bush.
Maybe Geithner conveniently forgot about these facts like he, and so many other Obama appointees, conveniently forgot to pay their taxes.
