With news that RINO DeDe Scozzafava has dropped out of the race in NY-23, and with Republican Bob McDonnell seemingly cruising to victory in the Virginia governor’s race, all eyes are turning to New Jersey.  Republican Christopher Christie is slightly ahead in the polls, with the trend going his way.  A victory for Republicans in deep blue New Jersey would send shock waves through the country that would be felt right up to the doors of the White House.

And New Jersey is winnable.  Independent candidate Chris Daggett appears to be fading, as voters who were considering him begin to get cold feet.  The majority of Daggett’s voters say Christie is their second choice, and he stands to gain three to five percent in the polls just from Daggett’s support.

Enthusiasm for incumbent Governor Jon Corzine remains non-existent, no matter how many times President Barack Obama visits the Garden State on his behalf.  New Jerseyans are not happy with Corzine’s performance as governor, and they know that Obama is not on the ballot.  None but the most die-hard Democrat is coming out to vote for Corzine.  Christie is winning among independents by double-digits.

With victory so close, it’s time for conservatives nationwide to step in and help push Christie over the top. 

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National Review’s Jim Geraghty has a tremendously important story. Jon Corzine is trying to build an absentee ballot slush fund to win a recount in the New Jersey Governor’s race. Basically, the Democratic Party has asked the Secretary of State to send provisional absentee ballots out to people whose signatures on their absentee ballot requests don’t match:

In a development that is depressingly predictable, the New Jersey Democratic party is asking the state to provide provisional ballots for all these voters. Those ballots could, presumably, be used to overcome any narrow lead by Republican Chris Christie over Democrat Jon Corzine on Election Day.

Now, let’s be clear how the absentee process works in New Jersey. Third parties can pick up and return absentee ballots.  A couple of weeks ago, a Democratic operative in Atlantic City plead guilty to a lesser charge of tampering with ballots. One practice mentioned in the indictment was the person picking up ballots from people and throwing them out if they weren’t for his candidate.  Another example was:

They allegedly solicited applications for messenger absentee ballots from individuals not qualified to receive them and had the voters not fill in the name of the messenger, so they could fraudulently designate themselves as the authorized messengers or bearers.

And:

They allegedly obtained messenger ballots from the county clerk and submitted them to the board of elections as vote s on behalf of voters who, in fact, never received or voted the ballots or, in some cases, were given only the security envelope for the ballot and were told to sign it. Those voters were not given the opportunity to vote in most instances.

So when ballots are getting into the hands of people who didn’t even ask for them, you have to wonder what is going on.

Suffolk University’s Political Research Center released its latest survey in the New Jersey Governor’s race today, showing Governor Jon Corzine holding a commanding 9-point lead over Republican challenger Christopher Christie, 42-33 percent. Independent Chris Daggett received 7 percent in the poll.

The result caused a minor stir on the Internet. A very minor stir, as even a cursory examination of the internals of this poll shows that it is deeply flawed, internally contradictory, and not at all reflective of the state of the race in the Garden State.

All polls produce outliers, and polling outfits occasionally get a bad sample. But a result this bad this late should never have been released, if Suffolk University wanted to maintain any semblance of credibility. The fact that it was released leads one to believe that the purpose of the survey was not to predict the outcome in the governor’s race, but to influence it.

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Republican Christopher Christie has been hammering Governor Jon Corzine on the issue of taxes in the New Jersey governor’s race of late.  But the New York and Philadelphia media which has deigned to cover the race has wanted to talk about mammograms, traffic tickets, and Christie’s weight.  Chritsie has been relentless in driving the message of lower taxes and slashing state spending as medicine to get New Jersey’s worst-in-the-region economy moving again.

There was another recent candidate for governor in the Garden State who rode the message of lower taxes to victory in November:  Jon Corzine.  Back in 2005, Corzine promised property tax relief for New Jersey’s over-burdened citizens.  Things have not exactly worked out according to plan.

With a little help from the Wayback Machine, Jon Corzine’s 2005 tax promises have been recovered.  And his betrayal of New Jersey taxpayers exposed.

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Gov. Jon Corzine’s (D) campaign is launching a new attack on Republican Christopher Christie’s ethics, heralding news that Christie spoke with former White House political strategist Karl Rove about a possible governor’s race while he was the U.S. Attorney for Newark.

Asked about Christie during a July 7 appearance before the committee, Rove said he never spoke with Christie about his investigations or other actions as the state’s top federal prosecutor. They did discuss the possibility Christie might run for governor, Rove testified.

“I talked to him twice in the last couple of years, perhaps one time while I was at the White House and once or twice since I left the White House, but not regarding his duties as U.S. Attorney, but regarding his interest in running for governor, and he asked me questions about who — who were good people that knew about running for Governor that he could talk to,” Rove said in the testimony.

In an act that stinks of political desperation, the Corzine campaign is attempting to use Rove’s testimony as a basis for calling Christie’s entire extremely successful seven-year stint as U.S. Attorney for Newark into question.

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It’s only July, but time is fast running out on Governor Jon Corzine (D) in the New Jersey governor’s race.  Corzine trails Republican Christopher Christie by as much as 15 points in recent polling, and has only polled within ten points of the challenger twice in the last two months.  Even a visit from President Barack Obama has been unable to buoy the Corzine campaign back into making the race competitive.  Corzine needed to do something to change the dynamic of the race, and his best opportunity should have been his selection of a lieutenant governor running mate.

But rather than make a bold choice that would have signaled a new direction for the campaign, Corzine went with the safe choice, selecting veteran State Senator Loretta Weinberg.  Weinberg is qualified, but at 74 years old she hardly brings energy to the ticket.  And her 17 years in elected state government brings “Trenton insider” baggage to the campaign, exactly the image that is dogging Corzine.  The Christie campaign wasted no time in driving home these points, releasing a mock Corzine-Weinberg movie trailer titled, “You can’t change Trenton from the inside.”

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What worse for a struggling incumbent governor than trailing by 15 points in the polls?  Scores of Democratic Party officials - including a member of your administration - arrested and implicated in a widespread official corruption scheme in an investigation begun by your challenger.

A two-year corruption and international money-laundering investigation stretching from the Jersey Shore to Brooklyn to Israel and Switzerland culminated in charges against 44 people on Thursday, including three New Jersey mayors, two state assemblymen and five rabbis, the authorities said. [...]

Weysan Dun, the special agent in charge of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Newark office…emphasized that the case was motivated by neither religion nor politics — an important point given that the New Jersey governor’s race pits a former United States attorney, Christopher J. Christie, under whom the investigation began, against the Democratic incumbent, Jon S. Corzine, whose administration was not spared in the arrests Thursday.

Agents also raided the home of Joseph V. Doria Jr., commissioner of the state’s Department of Community Affairs and a former mayor of Bayonne.

Corzine called a hasty press conference to denounce the corruption.  “Any corruption is unacceptable — anywhere, anytime, by anybody,” he said.  But if Corzine was hoping to insulate himself from and fallout from the arrests, it may already be too late.

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New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie’s campaign got a shot in the arm today when Quinnipiac released the results of its most recent polling in the governor’s race. Christie has expanded his lead to 12 points over incumbent governor Jon Corzine (D). From the poll:

Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and now holds a 53 - 41 percent lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47 - 38 percent, with 8 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Christie has increased his lead despite a month-long negative ad blitz by Corzine that is seeking to paint Christie as ethically challenged and tied to former president George W. Bush.  The charges are not sticking.  The poll found that only 10% of likely voters say that Corzine’s attacks on Christie’s association with Bush, who appointed him as U.S. Attorney for Newark, are fair.  By contrast, 77% say that Corzine should focus on state issues.

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New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie appeared on Hannity alongside former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a possible candidate for Governor of New York himself, and pledged to lead a resurgence of the Republican Party in the northeast.  His prescription is an approach that emphasizes traditional conservative ideas of low taxes and spending cuts.

We’ve got to get back to basics as a party.  [When] we put good candidates up to talk about our core principles…that’s a winning argument.  And especially in a place like New Jersey where people are suffocating.  There suffocating from the taxation.”

Giuliani agreed, saying that Christie’s core conservative message, coupled with a strong effort in the Virginia governor’s race, will set the table for a Republican comeback in the 2010 Congressional elections.  “We did it in 1994.  This is how a political party comes back, with good candidates that can win.”  Christie seems to be making good on that promise.  The most recent polling shows him maintaining a nine point advantage over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D).

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This is one that we need to pay attention to. Republican Chris Christie is up 6, 42-46, over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

Save Jersey pulls the real highlights:

On the day Chris Christie officially kicks off his campaign for Governor, his campaign is boosted by news of a poll that shows him as the strongest challenger to Governor Jon Corzine. While neither candidate breaks 50% in the ballot test, Corzine is carrying a 50% disapproval rating. Even further, 54% of New Jerseyans say that Corzine does NOT deserve a second term. Christie leads Corzine among independent voters 49%-24% (a margin that would ensure victories in Bergen and Middlesex). 

 Jim Geraghty has more at the Campaign Spot.

Cross-posted from The Next Right.