This has been noted as being almost like a game of rock-paper-scissors:

• Toomey beats Specter, 45/40.
• Specter beats Sestak, 46/42.
• Sestak ties Toomey, 38/37.

Some other numbers for Specter: 46/52 favorable/unfavorable (Rasmussen);  31/59 deserves-reelection (Susquehanna).  The Susquehanna poll also has him leading Sestak in the primary 44/16 and tied with Toomey 42/41, but that may be the usual registered/likely voter difference.  All in all, it’s starting to look like maybe Specter should have taken the hint and announced that he wasn’t going to run for re-election after he switched parties…

Moe Lane

PS: Pat Toomey for Senate.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

They say that nobody loves a traitor. The Pat Toomey campaign wants you to remember that usually one person does, at least: the traitor himself.

Two things:

1. President Obama ripped off former President Bush so blatantly in that speech praising Specter that the former should have paid the latter royalties; and
2. It’s not every day that people are given a second chance to correct the mistakes of a past election.  Pat Toomey for Senate. RedState likes him.

Moe Lane

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Unless you are on RSS, you should see the widget below to give to Michael Williams, Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, and Chuck Devore.

if you don’t see the widget, well, then, you are out of luck, but you should still give.

No sense in being coy about it. We’re not meeting our goal. In fact, the fundraising for these four sucks.

I know cash is tight, but unless conservatives are willing to step up to the plate, we’re not going to get these guys elected and, frankly, the establishment of the Republican Party will keep ignoring us.

Let’s be honest. One of the reasons the left is so head over heels in love with the online left is because of the moonbat ability to turn on the cash. Even Ron Paul’s followers do better than conservatives.

Yes, yes, we can go to the polls in droves, etc., but cash is king in politics. And if we want to be taken seriously, we need to step up to the plate. I know that hacks some of you off. Every time I write stuff like this I get dozens of angry emails from people suffering due to Barack Obama’s economy. I get it. But you need to get it too — you want to change the Republican Party and have a seat at the table, you’ve got to launch a coup against the establishment. And the best way to do that at the present time is support these candidates who are running against the establishment.

Right now, we’ve got 15 days left and we’re no where close to meeting the $250,000.00 goal. If you can’t give, consider at least putting up the widget on your own site or asking other sites to host the widget too.

Have you given yet? Imagine a world where Marco Rubio, Chuck Devore, Pat Toomey, and Michael Williams work together in the Senate with Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn. Imagine a world where they push the GOP to the right in the Senate and stop the culture of capitulation.

Give what you can. Embed this same widget on your website. Let’s raise them some money.

I won’t call this the “screw the NRSC” fundraiser, but I’m sorely tempted.

Each of you has a favorite Senate candidate this cycle. Here are four guys we want to see in the Senate. Let’s try to raise them $250,000.00 in the next 20 days.

Click on the guy you like, learn a little about him, and give him some money. Together, we can move the Senate right.

Okay, Snarlin’ Arlen still has a primary to navigate, but don’t let Sleeze-stak’s military resume fool you, he’s the real darling of the Nutroots. And you know what that means. He’s a died in the wool liberal with a D after his name.

Pat Toomey has a fund raising drive going on for September and it has realistic numbers. If we don’t start competing with the Left on line across the board, including supporting our guys, we’re going to pay an even bigger cost with Obama, Pelosi and possibly Reid running wild after 2010. The time to put an end to this nonsense is now.

At least take a look and consider doing what you can do. Like it or not, as with anything else, money talks and BS walks in politics. Do you want to talk BS, or play the game to win? It’s up to you.

Check it out. And it has a share page here with widgets and such. At least consider spreading the word.

When Arlen Specter switched parties back in April, he realized that some of his former supporters might regret having donated money to someone who was no longer a Republican. He made a concession: “Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle.”

That could wind up being a costly promise. Specter has raised $11 million this cycle, and only has $7.5 million on hand. That said, some donors have a lot invested in Specter and won’t want their money back. And many others might want their money back, but either aren’t aware of his promise or won’t bother to make the request.

Well, the Club for Growth has stepped up to the plate to do something for that latter group. They have offered to contact Specter’s donors and help them ask for their money back. Yesterday they received legal permission to do so:

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:sound effect of mouthful of coffee being sprayed across the monitor:

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

:pause:

Wow.

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This one is of his speech that Toomey did for the Gathering, not the interview afterward: I’m not sure if there is going to be a better video copy of it, so enjoy. Pat Toomey is, of course, the guy who scared Arlen Specter into getting primary challenged by the Democrats instead of the Republicans, which is probably not what Specter had in mind. Such a pity, really.

As the video notes, Toomey also has a book (The Road to Prosperity) out.

Moe Lane

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As you can tell, we’ve been away and busy at the RedState Gathering.

Liz Cheney spoke. She was amazing.

“America needs a commander in chief,” she said, ” not a global community organizer.”

Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Michael Williams, Ken Cuccinelli, Karen Handel, Tom Price, Pat Toomey, Roy Blunt, Jim DeMint, and Rick Perry all joined us in person or via video.

It was an amazing time. Stand by for lots of video and pictures.

[UPDATE]: And if you think those numbers are bad, wait until Specter caves on card check to appease his new owners.  His constituents are purely going to hate that.

Via Hot Air Headlines, nobody loves a traitor.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.

[snip]

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg Luksik 47 - 6 percent.

[snip]

In other trial matchups Specter would defeat Luksik 47 - 40 percent, while Toomey would edge Sestak 39 - 35 percent.

That last bit may be what dooms Sestak’s candidacy… except, of course, that the Democrats are already trying their best to sabotage his (and Maloney’s, over in NY) primary challenge anyway. Meanwhile, the NRSC is backing Toomey, thus avoiding the bloody primary that we were all expecting and dreading before Specter changed sides.

So: thanks for not retiring, Arlen! Make sure that you vote for health care rationing!

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The good news: Pat Toomey’s (R Cand, PA) campaign (donate here) is reporting that he raised 1.6 million dollars in the second quarter of 2009.

Mr. Toomey’s strong first campaign quarter fundraising compares favorably with those of successful U.S. Senate challengers in the last election. In fact, he has raised more than every successful 2008 challenger. In his first quarter as a Senate candidate, Mr. Toomey has raised more than candidates Al Franken (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kay Hagen (D-NC), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Mark Begich (D-AK), all of whom went on to defeat incumbent U.S. senators

The other good news: Joe Sestak’s (D Cand, PA) primary campaign against Arlen Specter (Arlen Specter, PA) is being reasonably well funded.

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A little while back Greenberg* Quinlan Rosner put out a poll that showed Specter leading 55-34 over Sestak in the primary. Interestingly, (via DoubleplusUndead, via @JustKarl), one hope for Sestak is apparently that he actually leads Specter among Democrats who know both candidates, 52-44.  The difference is due to the fact that Sestak is only known to about 30% of the PA Dem electorate.

Full disclosure: I don’t care who wins this primary, just as long as it’s won ugly, expensively, and with a lot of promising political careers permanently blighted by petty spite and bitter grudges.  That being said, both candidates have complications:

• Sestak - more accurately, Sestak’s supporters - are probably assuming that getting his recognition numbers up will not erode his lead among voters aware of both.  That may be justified; on the other hand, most of the voters aware of both are probably also more committed or ideological Democrats.  Assuming Sestak runs, how more moderate and conservative voters will react once they take a good look at him will be interesting to see.
• Specter’s major problem?  If  you believe this poll, he faces the problem that if he wants to win the primary he has to start voting the Democratic party line on everything.  No more contrary votes for him, which is going to make it problematical when/if he gets out of the primary to face Pat Toomey**.

This is not the primary campaign that the VRWC contemplated happening a year ago, but it’s got its points.  Believe the internals of that poll, and either way Toomey will be facing a candidate that’s going to be squarely identifying himself with a Democrat who’s more palatable to his base than, perhaps, the Pennsylvanian electorate.  And it’ll be interesting to see just how the parties are perceived next year, because even right this second they’re not really all that far apart…

Moe Lane

*Yeah, the same guy that gave Rahm Emanuel free rent while Emanuel was doing DCCC business with his company. And whose wife put up that legislation designed to gut the organic food industry. What’s your point?

**Who, by the way, comes across as pretty sharp when you talk to him.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

When the Democrat leaders in Washington were negotiating Arlen Specter’s party switch, they were eager to assure him that they would do all in their power to ensure him a clear path to the Democratic nomination for Senate. It’s becoming clear that in doing so, they promised something far outside their power to deliver.

In the 2010 race for U.S. Senate, by a 63/28 margin most Democrats believe Specter should face a challenge from one or more other Democrats in the 2010 Democratic primary in order to secure the nomination (9% are undecided). This suggests most Democrats want Specter to earn his rightful place as the Democratic nominee despite comments by Democratic Party officials and leaders that Specter should be given a free ride in the primary.

In a potential general election match-up between Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat Toomey, Specter leads Toomey by a 46/37 margin (13% are undecided and 4% would support someone else). Among Republicans, Toomey leads Specter 69/21 while among Democrats Specter leads Toomey by a 65/14 margin. Among “super voter” or those who voted in 3 or 4 of the last 4 general elections the race is a near toss-up with Specter leading by a narrow 42/39 margin, while among those who voted in only 1 or 2 of the last 4 elections Specter holds a commanding 50/36 lead. This means lower turnout favors the Republican nominee in this contest, while higher turnout favors the Democrat.

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It’s not ‘official’, but unless Sestak is sufficiently a practical joker as to send his supporters handwritten phony fund-raising notes, it’s happening. Guess that means that Arlen Specter is going to have to face a tough primary battle after all.

Meanwhile…

Moderate Pa. Republicans warming to Toomey

Moderate Republican leaders have stopped publicly pushing to recruit a less-conservative alternative to front-runner Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, a sign that he has begun to calm concerns about his electability.

Toomey has redoubled efforts to court skeptics in the party establishment in the two weeks since former Gov. Tom Ridge declined to enter the race for the GOP nomination despite the pleadings of prominent moderates.

Karma. It’s what’s for dinner.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Rumors abound that the Pennsylvania GOP and/or the NRSC are flirting with both Jim Gerlach and Tom Ridge.

We know Tom Ridge cannot win in Pennsylvania again in a Republican Primary because of the changed dynamics and demographics from the last time he ran. But what of Jim Gerlach?

The PAGOP and NRSC are flirting with him because Gerlach regularly wins re-election as a Republican in D +2 districts. They forget, however, that Pat Toomey did the same — and with larger margins.

In fact, in 2002, the year Toomey and Gerlach were both on the ballot in D +2, Toomey got 57.4% of the vote and Gerlach got 51% of the vote. Toomey did so without selling out his conservative values. Not so with Gerlach.

In fact, and this is key, Gerlach actually has a more liberal voting record on issues Pennsylanians care about than Arlen Specter. If Specter cannot get out of a Republican primary, how on earth could Gerlach? The answer is he can’t.

Consider these issues:

• Gerlach voted for the Medicare Prescription Drug Act.
• He voted for the Bridge to Nowhere.
• He voted to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to continue borrowing money from the Treasury.
• He voted for the mortgage bailout program.
• He voted for TARP
• He voted against the right of workers to cast a secret ballot for unionization.
• He voted against drilling in ANWR.
• He voted against the same-sex marriage ban.
• He voted against lifting the moratorium on natural gas production.
• He voted for outrageous pork projects like California’s Mule and packers, Missouri’s Jazz Mueseum, Maine’s Lobster Institute, and Houston’s zoo.

While these issues may not matter in a general election in Pennsylvania, they matter greatly in a Republican Primary in Pennsylvania and each of these votes works in Pat Toomey’s favor.

So the question is this: do the NRSC and PAGOP want to spend resources trying to beat Pat Toomey in the primary or do they want to focus on beating Arlen Specter? Because if they rough up Toomey now, they can’t beat him, but they make him very vulnerable.

In the meantime, there are more than 400 days before the 2010 general election. The situation is not static. The historic trends will most likely work in Toomey’s favor.

There is a big call that will happen tonight among Pennsylvania Republican Party Executive Committee members. I’m hearing there will probably be over 100 people involved.

If you know your local party chair, I encourage you to call that person and tell them to get behind Pat Toomey.

The Politico is running a story today that suggests the PAGOP establishment and the NRSC are trying to get Jim Gerlach to run against Toomey (Ridge is not interested in running). Gerlach could hurt Toomey in the primary, but he cannot win the primary.

Call your Pennsylvania GOP representatives and demand they unite behind Toomey.

In what I can only believe is coordination with the Senate GOP Leadership because everyone is on the exact same talking point, I am more than a little disappointed with the wailing and gnashing of teeth coming from the Republican commentariat.

The other day, Senator Jim DeMint told Arlen Specter that DeMint would be backing Toomey. Somehow he is to blame for Specter jumping to his natural party. Nevermind that Specter’s staff says it is because Specter can’t win a Republican primary.

And it is not just that. Everyone from Ramesh Ponnuru to Michael Barone to the Wall Street Journal is collectively wringing their hands about the selfish conservatives and Club for Growth wanting to remain an ideologically pure minority party that can’t win the majority because it shuts out squishes.

That’s garbage and they should know it.

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Will the NRSC staff push former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge to get into the Pennsylvania primary against Pat Toomey?

It would not surprise me to learn that they are leaning that way, convinced that Pat Toomey cannot win, but someone a close friend of George W. Bush and a pro-abort candidate can win.

People seem to forget that Pat Toomey, while in Congress, regularly won a district that leaned Democrat.

Ridge is the only Republican who makes Specter appear conservative. He is pro-abortion, anti-school choice, and pro-tax. He was also not exactly stellar as Secretary of Homeland Security, though the present Secretary there makes him look sharp in contrast.

If the NRSC were to come out in favor of a pro-choice Bushie in Pennsylvania, it would be suicide for their fundraising efforts among conservatives.