One might look at the latest PPP polling data that shows Roy Blunt down by one point to Robin Carnahan and think “oooh, Roy’s not looking so good”. But a quick peek beneath the results shows otherwise.
Back in January, when PPP first surveyed Missouri voters about a potential Blunt/Carnahan race, the numbers came out 45/44 Carnahan over Blunt. Now? The latest shows Carnahan up 43/42 over Blunt. Of course this is well within the MOE of 3.6%. But consider the environment that exists today in Missouri. The “League of Conservation Voters” has been conducting an extensive ad campaign criticizing Rep. Blunt’s stand against “cap-and-trade” legislation. Blunt has made his opposition to cap-and-trade well-known, pointing out the huge utility bill increases that such a bill would foist upon Missourians and the rest of the country. But despite this effort by the Carnahan-supporting group, Blunt’s numbers have barely budged.
It appears that the negative opinion of Barack Obama’s policies, the Democrat-controlled Congress and the general economic conditions have also impacted the polling data. According to the PPP numbers, Blunt leads Carnahan 44-32% with independent voters. As PPP points out, this is a very similar situation to what occurred in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections. PPP’s numbers also show strong disapproval for Barack Obama’s performance (-9 pts) and a 21-point disapproval gap for PelosiObamaReidCare.
