While Obama was taking a bow on his Asian Apology Tour, Quinnipiac released a new poll in which the President’s ratings also took a bow, h/t Ed Morrisey at Hot Air.

Obama’s job approval rating fell to 48 percent in the Nov. 9-16 survey of registered voters nationwide by the Hamden, Connecticut-based university, with 42 percent polled saying they disapproved of the job he is doing.

The Quinnipiac Poll also showed a drop in approval of the Presidents handling of the war in Afghanistan. Voters now “disapprove 49 - 38 percent of the President’s handling of the war there”. In October that number read 42 - 40 percent approval.

Now, don’t misread this as support for the war effort losing steam.

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I thought the President said passing ObamaCare — doing the exact opposite of what the public wants — will help their poll numbers?

Give House Democrats credit: their latest version of the health care rationing bill actually moved the numbers a little.  Just not in the way that they hoped.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi introduced the House version of health care reform legislation last week, but most voters are still opposed to the effort.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down from 45% a week ago but unchanged from two weeks ago.

Much obliged; the drop in support from the last time the Democrats unveiled a version of health care rationing was starting to abate, so having this handy reminder of who’s running Congress these days - and the implications - is really, really handy.  Some people might quibble that if Democrats wanted to be really helpful they’d have scheduled their latest announcement last Saturday, but I’m not greedy.  This will do nicely for tomorrow’s races.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Rasmussen hasn’t written the article yet - but they put the new numbers on their BY THE NUMBERS page.  And it’s not pretty for Democrats:

Note the dives on… everything, really, except immigration issues: the GOP increased its lead in 9 out of 10 categories since last month. But particularly note the Health Care, Social Security, Economy, and Taxes numbers. Does the Democratic Party feel like demonizing their opponents on health care rationing some more? - because I think that the GOP can somehow manage to find the strength to keep bearing up under the Democrats’ scorn.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

It would seem that finally putting out all the various versions, alternates, and fevered mutterings of what the Democrats are trying to call ‘health care reform’ has helped to clarify matters for voters some more. It’s just not clarifying matters in a fashion that will make the current ruling party happy. Rasmussen’s latest snapshot:

Now that the Senate Finance Committee has passed its version of health care reform, 42% of voters nationwide favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down two points from a week ago and down four from the week before.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% are opposed to the plan.

It is perhaps unkind to point out two details about the 42%:

• The current state of affairs means that the number represents support for the hope that there will eventually be an acceptable health care bill.
• Hope is not a plan.

…but it’s probably necessary.  Watching the… seven*?… Democratic factions try to reconcile the mess that they’ve created for themselves should be remarkably engrossing.

Moe Lane

*Well, you’ve got House progressives & Senate liberals; like vulnerable House members and ‘moderate’ Democratic Senators, there’s the House/Senate split on outlook to consider.  So that’s four.  Then there’s the House’s and the Senate’s leadership, with the two groups being barely civil to each other these days.  That’s two more.  And then there’s the White House, who pretty much caused this mess by letting the other six factions have free rein over the process.  So, seven.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

(Via The Campaign Spot) Not that they would ever, ever come out and say so - but when the one truly hopeful poll that one’s had in months for a particular campaign reverses itself the next time it’s taken again, well.  Let’s just say that a handy excuse would be… handy.

The bad poll news comes on the heels of a story circulating in Democratic circles today that the Democratic National Committee is reportedly holding on to its $5 million financial commitment to the Deeds campaign out of concern that the Deeds campaign has focused too much of its attention on the controversial Bob McDonnell 1989 grad-school thesis setting out a hardline social-conservative political agenda for his budding political career and not enough on putting down a framework for what a Deeds administration would do for Virginia.

That’s so clever it’s almost diabolical. Remember: Deeds is the guy that the national party had the least preexisting ties with, so there’s less people to offend here.  And telling him to come up with a new campaign narrative may sound reasonable - until you remember that we’re down to one month before the election. Also, five million dollars is suddenly looking like a lot more money, in this era of anemic Democratic fundraising; obviously, spending it on an election is what it’s there for… but throwing it away on an election is usually not considered smart.

Again, there’s no possible way that the DNC will ever admit that they’re going to cut Deeds loose.  They’ll in fact angrily deny it.  But ask yourself: in their shoes, would you be throwing good money after Creigh?

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. It’s the only way to be sure.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Today Rasmussen Reports issued their first Election 2010 survey of Missouri’s U.S. Senate race that will most likely be between Rep. Roy Blunt (MO-7) and Sec’y of State Robin Carnahan (D-we don’t know where she is). The Rasmussen poll shows a dead heat - 46-46 between Blunt and Carnahan. Both of these candidates are well-known names in Missouri, and earlier polls by other polling firms had shown Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one or two-point lead a few months ago.

Rasmussen breaks down the numbers:

Nearly all the numbers in this early survey show an uncommonly close match between two members of well-known Missouri political families. Blunt, for example, leads by 17 points among men, but Carnahan has a 13-point lead among female voters.

Carnahan captures 84% of the state’s Democratic vote, while Blunt nets 85% of the GOP vote. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Blunt by eight points.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Missouri voters have a favorable view of Blunt, with 18% whose opinion of him is very favorable. Thirty-three percent (33%) view him unfavorably, including 15% with a very unfavorable view. Only 10% have no opinion of the Republican hopeful.

Carnahan has 52% favorables and 42% unfavorables. Twenty-three percent (23%) regard her very favorably and 22% very unfavorably. Just six percent (6%) aren’t sure what they think of Carnahan.

The one number that seemed to stand out, as indicated in bold, was the unaffiliated number, which showed an 8-point lead for Blunt.  This may be a “coal mine canary” indicator of the public’s dissatisfaction with the Dems.

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(Via AoSHQ Headlines) Political identifiers are taking a beating these days. A comparison between this month’s survey by Rasmussen and November’s shows that the public is getting sick of pretty much all of us.

Well, all of us except Ronald Reagan.

Spokesmen from either the Reaganlican or the Reagancratic parties were unavailable for comment.

MoReagan LReagane

Crossposted to MoReagan LReagane.

The first of what will be a daily series of Rasmussen polls charting post-speech opinions on the health care rationing bill is in: as expected, the numbers have shifted in the Democrats’ favor (from 44/53 for/against to 46/51). If that the increase in support is sustained today, we’ll see those numbers increase to a statistical tie (which is what Rasmussen reported the numbers being right after the speech itself). So, good news for the President, right?

Depends on what his actual goal was. If he wanted to shore up his base? Yes. If he wanted to change the conditions of the fight? …No, not really:

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The Democrats may simply have to accept the fact that they no longer can automatically count on the trust of the American people on any topic.

Seven out of ten, and one tie.  The good news for the Democrats is that they made some decent recoveries from August’s numbers; the bad news is that August was really bad for them, so they’re still trying to make up ground.  The most important/topical number there - health care - is probably their brightest spot, but being equally trusted on an issue when you’ve spent the last few years being clearly trusted is not the most welcome news in the world.  Particularly when ‘trusting the Democrat’ does not exclude ‘trusting the Democrat to vote the Republican position.’

Moving on: nice to see that the Government Ethics numbers are starting to consistently reflect objective reality, not to mention the Economy ones.  I’m interested how much of that is reflected by cap-and-trade - and how bringing that issue back will affect the Taxes question.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Thanks in large part to your activities - and according to Rasmussen:

• 49% “have a favorable opinion of those opposing the health care reforms at town hall meetings” (41% last month).
• 59% “say the town hall protesters are citizens reflecting the concerns of their neighbors (49% last month).
• 56% “say that it’s more important for Congressmen to hear the view of their constituents rather than explain the proposed health care legislation.”

And, best of all?  While Democrats disagree on all three of those - Republicans and independents don’t.

So.  Speaking for the Republican party: much obliged.  Can we count on your invaluable assistance, if and when the Democrats in Congress find the courage to again address cap-and-trade?

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The President’s most trusted advisor, David Axelrod told Politico:

“I think it’s fairly obvious that we’re not in the second inning. We’re not in the fourth inning. We’re in the eighth or ninth inning here, and so there’s not a lot of time to waste.”

That is about as good as it gets in terms of any admission from the White House that their signature initiative is in trouble (to continue the baseball analogy, the White House is behind) and the game is winding down.

A mid-August poll by Rasmussen of likely voters put President Obama’s support for a health reform bill at 34% without the public option:

“Just 34% of voters nationwide support the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats if the so-called “public option” is removed. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 57% oppose the plan if it doesn’t include a government-run health insurance plan to compete with private insurers.”

CBS News today had more bad health care polling news for the President:

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49% want the chance to opt out, 37% don’t. This was the sentence that jumped out at me:

A majority of voters under 50 say workers should be allowed to opt out. A plurality of those over 50 disagree.

Speaking as a voter under 50, let me say that both the under-50 and the over-50 positions make perfect sense. I’ve been putting money into Social Security for a quarter-century - and I don’t expect to see a penny of it, a quarter-century from now. Somebody retiring fifteen years from now? …maybe. Enough to roll the bones, at least. For myself, I’m tired of tossing good money after bad.

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I think that this is going to sting the Democrats a little.

Eight out of ten again, and the only sour note is that last month’s Democratic-flavored scandals were not sufficiently public enough to overcome what appears to be the built-in public bias on Government Ethics. On the other hand, we just took first place in health care for the first time in two years, and it’s still fifteen months to November 2010. So, room for development, there. As for the Iraq question… well, for both countries’ sake I’m just as pleased to see that it’s reflecting a relatively quiet situation. The way that our domestic numbers are racking up I’m just as happy to concentrate on those right now anyway.

So, you have to wonder: at what point will the White House decide that it’s time to fold and start a new hand?

Moe Lane

(H/T: @JamesRichardson)

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

:sound effect of mouthful of coffee being sprayed across the monitor:

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

:pause:

Wow.

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The latest report from Rasmussen shows only 42% of Americans now support Congressional Democrats’ and President Obama’s proposal for a government-centric overhaul of the American health care system.

This poll shows that the decline in support for the President’s plan, which began in earnest in late June, has continued unabated. Two months ago, support for the Obama/Kennedy/Pelosi health care overhaul stood at 50%; in July, it fell to 47%, and now, in August, it is 42%.

American opposition to allowing government to overhaul the health care system remains 53%, identical to the late July number.

According to the report:

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those under 30 favor the plan while 56% of those over 65 are opposed. Among senior citizens, 46% are strongly opposed.

Predictably, 69% of Democrats favor the plan, while 79% of Republicans oppose it. Yet while 44% of Democratic voters strongly favor the reform effort, 70% of GOP voters are strongly opposed to it.

Most notable, however, is the opposition among voters not affiliated with either party. Sixty-two percent (62%) of unaffiliated voters oppose the health care plan, and 51% are strongly opposed. This marks an uptick in strong opposition among both Republicans and unaffiliateds, while the number of strongly supportive Democrats is unchanged.

With the popularity of his health overhaul still dropping like it has a millstone tied around its neck, it’s no wonder the President — whose only experience with opposition is engineering union-backed astroturf campaigns for the purpose of preaching “truth to power” — is so anxious to shut off debate, and to have his supporters (and union goons) punch opponents back “twice as hard.”

Further, it’s no wonder that Obama pressed so hard to have a health overhaul bill passed this summer, before the American people could find out what his proposal consisted of, and before Congress had to face those in whose hands their electoral fates lie.

It looks like it’s going to be a long, hot August for the President and his Democratic supermajority in Congress.

The Obamacare plane is losing altitude, has two engines on fire, and is starting a potentially fatal roll to the left.

Karl Rove, writing in the WSJ:

Polls are turning against President Barack Obama’s health-care plan. The political calendar is, too.

On Monday, the Washington Post/ABC poll reported that 49% of Americans approve of his handling of health care while 44% disapprove. What many people missed is that those who strongly disapprove of the president’s approach on health care now outnumber those who strongly approve by 33% to 25%. That presages further decline. Already, 49% of independents disapprove of the president’s approach, up from 30% in April, a staggering shift in 11 weeks.

Mr. Obama is also slipping on the economy. Those who strongly disapprove now outnumber those who strongly approve of his handling of the economy (35% to 29%), of deficits (38% to 19%), and of unemployment (31% to 26%). On Tuesday, Gallup showed Mr. Obama’s personal approval was 55%, down from more than 60% a few weeks ago and lower than the 56% George W. Bush had at this point in his first term.

What is the most interesting about these polls is that they poll “adults” NOT likely voters.

The only major pollster who is polling LIKELY VOTERS, Rasmussen, has Obamacare spiraling in for the fatal inverted tail spin.

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[UPDATE] Rasmussen finally put up an article.

Short version: the public trusts the GOP over the Democrats 8-for-10 at this point, and we flipped the Abortion and Social Security categories.  That being said, the numbers readjusted themselves in the Democrats’ favor 5-for-10 as compared to last month’s.

Rasmussen has only put these numbers out here so far, unless I’ve missed it.  The shift down for the Democrats may be a trend; it may also be an inevitable result of the Republicans improving their position in eight out of ten categories from May to June.  Either way, I don’t think that it’s an accident that most of the GOP increases are in areas that have been in the news for the last month; particularly taxes, and particularly health care. The Democrats may want to consider adopting a strategy of visibly doing nothing at all, on anything…

Moe Lane

PS: Also, the upcoming monthly financial reports for the various committees are going to be very interesting.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Happy Father’s Day.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That’s the President’s lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama (see trends).

Oh, it’ll go back up tomorrow or the next day. That is the nature of these things. Meanwhile…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

So, last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than Democrats on four critical topics, and trusted more and/or tied on five.  It got a surprising amount of play, given that I hadn’t really thought all that much about it when I wrote it.  Besides, it was one month, compared to a very, very, very bad month for Republicans; the numbers could very easily shift by the next month.

They did.

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