I am hopeful that what we’re seeing now in “camp one” are a number of old war horses trying to be the “first mover”, that is, to capture momentum or the illusion thereof early because they know the longer the primaries go on the worse they’ll look. This certainly explains Mitt and Huck and Newt – each one has quite enough baggage to sink a campaign unless they can sink everyone else first.

Camp two are the tricky ones. There is an emotional appeal to Sarah Palin – some of which seems based in the male tendency to protect females perceived as under attack. I am not saying this is either bad or a conscious thing, but .. I find myself asking why so many otherwise rational people refuse to rationally discuss Candidate Palin. If she wins the nomination (and current polls show she can if she wants to…) then I’ll back her, weaknesses and all.

I am solidly in camp 3. None of the old war horses appeal – and I’ll go on making the case against Romney as long as it takes for his campaign to fold, or until he wins the nomination. (and if he wins, I’ll put on my happy smile and cheer for him until the election…) Same for Thune, for what it’s worth. Had he not “waited his turn”, he may have done well in 2008. Too “insider” for this go-round, though.

Right now, I’m watching for dark horse candidates. I like Herman Cain, and hope he decides to make a run. I also like Gov. Barbour. In both cases, they’re accomplished individualists, Barbour has good intel on how D.C. really works, Cain knows how business works and what it’ll take to create jobs.

Interesting to see how this develops. First thing to watch is how long Camp One sticks around once it becomes apparent they’re not connecting with Camp Three.

Mew

Because everyone in Camp Three would like exactly what you’ve said – a true conservative, and a return to founding principles.

We aren’t convinced that the best way to achieve this is with Candidate Palin. Unlike those of you in Camp Two.

If you can explain to me why Palin is better than Herman Cain or Gov. Barbour, then we can perhaps reach agreement, but everything I’ve seen from Camp Two have insisted on making only those comparisons where Sarah comes out ahead – i.e. to Mitt “robot” Romney or “Huckster” Huckabee or “Dictator in training pants” Obama.

Mew

based on her time in government (statements after she quit are out of bounds) to other potential candidates.

Here’s the work part. For every one of the retread clown posse (Romney, Newt, Huckabee) you include, you must include one of the current governors who’s been making noises (Daniels, Jindal, Pawlenty, Barbour).

You may choose to include dark horses like Herman Cain or refusers like Gov. Christie if you wish.

I am no Palin hater. I have been consistent in saying that, should she win the nomination, I’ll back her. I have been consistent in saying that I do not believe she is qualified, I believe she needs more executive experience. I have taken and will continue to hold this position until you convince me.

So. Convince me. Sell me on Candidate Palin.

Mew

but bomb-thrower-in-chief isn’t a generally successful approach either.

This choir member is waiting for the muttering in the pews to end and the preachin’ to start.

Mew

But I’ll also say that Christie shows now interest in running.

Mew

I seem to recall a number of people pushing Jindal to run, back when he was the wunderkind of the Louisiana GOP… and it’s interesting to see how many soured on him after his .. painful .. response to the State of the Union.

Christie is making a number of good fiscally conservative moves. It remains to be seen whether he can go the distance – which is a good test for any Republican POTUS candidate. Not the only test, of course, but .. one good one.

Mew

Seriously, I mean what I say – I arrive at small-government conservatism by a different path than you do, but the result is that we have a lot of the same goals, and should be able to work together if we don’t get caught up in quibbling.

See further reply above.

Mew

Gov. Barbour has a handle on both money and connections.

The RGA (Republican Governor’s Association) raised and spent a ton of money in the 2008 cycle, quite successfully. Haley Barbour headed it up. He also headed up the RNC during the Contract with America period.

Gov. Barbour knows far more than Gov. Palin about how to run a successful nationwide campaign.

Mew

than a record on which to run, right?

Daniels is boring, so according to you, will lose.

Barbour is a hayseed and while that’s okay for you, he’s not gonna win because of it.

Quite a lot of emphasis on how people sound instead of what they’ve actually accomplished.

Mew

Accents matter, unless they don’t. (ask Lamar Alexander and Bill Clinton if their accents mattered)

Exciting oratory matters, unless it doesn’t. (ask Bush 2.0 and Ross Perot if their speaking styles mattered)

At this point, only those who can seriously be called insiders (i.e. Rove, Axelrod, Schrum, etc.) know who’s murmuring because they’re serious about running and who’s just murmuring for the sake of attention.

More importantly, the only ones paying attention to that murmuring are the political junkies; if we were all into football instead, we’d be watching video of off-season practices and listening for rumors of who’s being traded, etc.

My point to the horn section is that it’s too early to count Barbour or Daniels out. You’re right that they’ve got some issues to overcome, but .. so does every candidate… including Candidate Palin.

Mew

Public speaking skills can be improved, though.

I doubt Daniels could ever be the “great communicator”, but …perhaps he could learn a straightforward but less dry style that would set him apart from Obama’s slick oratory without putting the audience to sleep…

Mew

Being under constant attack does not make someone qualified for POTUS. Period. Find another reason for me to support her in the primary. By that rationale, I should be baking Joe The Plumber for veep… but I’m not.

If you haven’t seen anything about Newt, Romney, Huckabee, Daniels, Pawlenty, Jindal, then it’s because you’re not looking. The stories are out there, the early moves are obvious.

The reason for the current round of anti-Sarah stories is because the Dems seem to think they can beat Palin more easily than a “serious” candidate… they did the same thing to McCain in 2006, if you’ll recall.

I would prefer, this time, to wait a while and see how all of the candidates – including Sarah – perform on the campaign trail before I choose one to support. (hint – it won’t be Romney, Newt, Thune, or any of the other “retreads”)

You’re being rushed to make an early decision, rxesteriors. I refuse to join you in this. If Sarah is the nominee, I’ll support her – but if she’s not, I’ll expect you to support whoever the nominee is.

Mew

is much, much smaller than the number of people who create the stories… and while their business acumen is still pathetic (witness plummeting circulation, falling ratings, etc.) there has to be some understanding of manipulation at that level…

Yeah, it’s a reach, but .. it’s not nearly as far a reach as it initially appears.

Mew

…went overseas on trade missions to see what Indiana could sell.

…made it easier for businesses to open factories in Indiana by cutting red tape and lowering taxes.

…encouraged a distributed network of factories in small cities throughout the state instead of putting all the eggs in Gary’s broken basket. (in the 1950s and 1960s, the industrial strength of Indiana was in the steel mills in Gary – this ended in the 1970s and 1980s.. Gary has yet to recover)

…sold off state-owned infrastructure and used the proceeds to reduce taxes and deficits, see above.

Mew

We’re going to go through it every couple weeks until someone sews up the nomination.

Mew

I direct you specifically to this post:

http://www.redstate.com/jaded/2010/11/26/i-will-not-let-the-elites-decide-for-me/#comment-2341

This is in contradiction to what gop2010 has posted.

Please note that Becker’s post (linked above) links to another post that links to the source for his information.

Mew

I meant rein, as in “slow down” but .. as you say, either way it works.

Mew

Reagan completed two terms in California.

Sarah completed half a term in Alaska.

Reagan’s terms in Cali were no picnic either – had to send national guard troops into Berkeley at one point. I don’t recall Palin having that level of domestic problems.

Look, she talks a great game, and if she wins the nomination, I’ll back her, but .. until then, her record of actually doing the job is not so hot, and there are others (Barbour, Daniels, Cain) who have a better jacket at this point.

If she wins the nomination, I’m all in to get her to the White House, but .. I need to know she’s more than a pretty face saying the right words.

Mew

Unless you’d care to cite something in Palin’s record that shows she governed Alaska as a conservative.

Not just an “outsider” to the old boy network. I’ll grant that.
Not just a “Republican”. That’s kinda obvious.

What *conservative* actions did she take, when given a choice?

Reagan sent the national guard into Berkeley to put down protests.
Reagan sent the CHP in to end riots.
Did Palin have any of that to deal with?

Reagan ran Cali during the first of the oil crises. Successfully.
Reagan released a number of his conservative speeches and letters before and during his time as governor.

Palin? Her conversion to conservatism seems to have happened after she left office.

Candidate Palin is a force to be reckoned with, true. She does not have the executive experience to be the second coming of Reagan. Not yet.

Mew

Barbour is chair of the Republican Governors Association, and was responsible for pulling the RNC’s bacon out of the fire in 2010… his campaign had enough money for a “last 72 hours” push, and they did their best to ensure coattails for down-ticket races.

At least get your facts in order.

Mew

To the point where I was a little surprised it was your writing…

The problem with the internet is that the sarc tags have to be written in by hand. We can’t hear your tone of voice or see your eyes rolling unless you write it down. (grin)

Mew

I forget which one(s) but .. they’re not all Republican-only.

Worse, they’re not mostly in the South. Northeast (FICONS) and Iowa (Populists) come first, then the South gets their shot on “Super Tuesday”…

Just sayin’.

Mew

And, at this point, all the candidates including Palin are continuing to work their day jobs.

Hers just happens to be sticking sharp objects into Obama’s hide as often as possible, and raising funds for conservatives.

Mew

Defending Palin from even a perceived slight seems to be an almost autonomic reaction at this point.

Mew

Most of the “anti-Palin forces” are no such thing – they’re people who have questions and haven’t made up their minds.

Are there rabid PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) sufferers? Of course, especially at Daily Kos… At Red State? Mostly people who either disagree that she’s the best candidate, or who haven’t decided.

There are also rabid PDDS (Palin Defender Derangement Syndrome) sufferers – that is, people who let their emotional connection with Candidate Palin override their ability to tell when someone’s asking a question and when someone’s on the attack.

Mew

It wasn’t aimed at you.

Let me try phrasing it another way, though.

For those of us who aren’t currently Palin supporters, who haven’t made up our minds two years before the election, one of the big stumbling blocks is the reflexive anger we get from some of her other supporters when we ask honest questions.

Again, not aimed at you.

Mew

I think it’s a misplaced sense of “female under attack, must defend female”. Defending the female has been reinforced quite a bit by traditional culture, that is, by the culture most conservatives hold, and most progressives reject.

Palin is a woman, under attack, undeservedly. There’s a rush to defense from the conservative side that .. sometimes .. doesn’t even enter conscious thought…. and the defenders react to any perceived threat whether it’s an actual threat or not.

It’s my pet theory, I don’t have any actual science to back it up, but .. it does fit the facts available.

Mew

Palin reminds me almost nothing of my own mother, but … it’s likely to be a valid point for people raised in more traditional families.

The key thing I see in your post is “disrespect to her feels like disrespect to me”, emphasis on “..feels..”. There’s definitely an emotional component to Palin’s popularity that nobody else in either party seems to have.

I’m trying to figure out how to discuss Palin with her supporters without getting a negative emotional response. Evidently, I’m going to need to work on my approach to keep this emotional link in mind. Nobody, and I mean *nobody* in politics has that kind of an emotional reaction in so large a percentage of their supporters.

Thank you very much for your reply. Lots for me to think on.

Mew

My concern is that Palin’s next step – winning over the independents – is not going to be made easier if every independent who has questions steps on an emotional land mine when they approach a pro-Palin person with questions.

Mew