« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Nate Silver Is A Relatively Dumb Liberal Propagandist

Nate Silver is blogger employed by the New York Times. Now this guy is really a fake work of art. Liberals look to this guy for analysis that Obama is going to win. He was a former Dkos blogger known a “Poblano” He writes columns that attempt to mask his liberal bias. He claims to crunch numbers to assure liberals that Obama’s chances of winning this election are extremely high and Romney’s are ridiculously low. Presently this feel-good clown shows Romney has a 71.2% chance of losing to Obama.

Having analyzed polling and number of elections it has been clear to me that Obama is in trouble even prior to the debates. I was able to predict this Silverlode of manure would start doing the liberal walk back. I am very harsh on people that claim to be independent but are masking their true ideology. Not only is his methodology a joke, his common sense is suspect. I have criticized this fake independent before. here

 ”We need to remember that people all across the United States have been bombarded by a biased media, including fake independent bloggers like Nate Silver(lode) over at the New York Times. (he is former DailyKos blogger..Poblano) He gives Obama an approximate 80% chance of winning. Now this is an example of where common sense is no longer common. I say Obama has less the 50% chance of winning and if pushed would go 50/50 today.  Mark my words I am right and Silverlode is full of it. (Watch for the liberal walk back as the election gets closer) This is not 2008. Any reasonable person knows that, as of today, this will be a close election and that Obama has a good chance of being defeated.”

Not only is Nate Silver(lode) relatively dumb his mediocre analysis is slow in coming. All he had to do was read my article on Sept 14th.

Jamesm on Sept 14th: “By mid to late October Romney will have a clear lead in the swing states.”

Nate Silver  Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney

and

Jamesm on Sept 14th: ” Millions of americans are unemployed, our culture is under attack and gas/food prices have risen.”

Nate Silver on Oct 8th: Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals

and

Jamesm on Sept 14th  ”Advantage Romney and we are right back where we started from prior to the conventions.”

Nate Silver on Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast

Yesterday I read this article.  John Nolte over at Breitbart is exposing his slow, liberal feel good mediocre analysis.

“There’s no question that nationally and in the ever-important states that swing, Governor Mitt Romney is not only tied or ahead but also enjoying a real surge after his stunning Wednesday night debate victory over President Obama. The Obama campaign is panicking, the Romney campaign is emboldened, and even the media has been forced to declare the race a toss-up.”

and then concludes:

“But make no mistake, Nate Silver is pure snake oil salesman, no better than a Politico or BuzzFeed Politics. Actually, he’s closer to these lying media fact-checkers that hide behind manufactured facts.

The only difference is that Silver’s spin and bias and lies of omission are hidden behind math.”

 

Let’s go back to what I said on Sept 14th as November 6th draws near

“ Let me state unequivocally that Barack Obama and his allies will be kicked out of power in November. “

Bank on it. Obama is toast.

 

COMMENTS

  • Common_Cents

    saw him on piers morgan the other night, less than impressive, typical liberal propagandist hack.

    • jamesm

      Liberal blogs are going nuts. They really are scared of losing. They look to Nate to lift their spirits. It is sad because he has been slanting the truth to the liberal left and they don’t know that is his job is to make them feel good. The left is about to come crashing down. Nate raised their hopes way too high.

  • braskyw

    Unless the race is too close to call as it stands. That’s probably the truth. There’s no way Obama will be allowed to lose in November. Those who are pulling the strings won’t let that happen.

    • jamesm

      The guy has no strings or clothes left.

  • celador2

    Since I have trouble following his method and system he is hard to refute. I take his work as slanted with a liberal bias and treat it with a grain of salt. He does not dazzle me at all.
    However Nate Silver is often cited but not quoted inside Beltway circles as an expert that liberals and Democrats say is their source for the statistical proof Obama will win.
    “Nate Silver says…”
    His purpose is to provide the election odds information under a maze of formulas and numbers that give credence to the inevitabilty of—an Obama term two, whatever.

    • jamesm

      Here is the deal. This former poker player is bluffing. There is no legitimate system. It’s professional propaganda designed to fool the average voter and confound the independent thinker. Watch this idiot get exposed in the next weeks when Obama loses easily. Nate Silver is completely wrong. An eight year old could be more accurate on Romney’s odds of winning than this charlatan. This is going to be funny and messy for this guy.

      • celador2

        james, your post expresses my gut reaction on Nate Silver’s method or lack of. It is not a method I can replicate and it smacks of self serving convenience for NYT, DNC. Sliver may believe, who can say. I never did.
        Its a bluff he can adjust at last minute. Silver poll statistics are also relevant only because so many Beltways talking heads reference his stats,
        “Nate SIlver says…”

        One such guest cited Silver ‘s numbers months ago and Bill Oreilly replied he was not familar with Nate Sliver. He moved the discussion along.

    • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

      It’s actually SIMPLE to refute. It’s all based on polls.

      When polls had Obama leading by average of 3 pts, what did Nate Silver say? He said that meant Obama had an 75-80% chance of winning.

      Here is the latest poll, one of MANY that now show Romney LEADING BY 5 POINTS:
      http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

      Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
      Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.
      Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points.
      Romney
      also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a
      6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead.

      Common sense says if the polls flip, the probabilities should as well. Last article Nate wrote, he was excusing use of old polls. Fudging. Either Nate Silver will move his probabilities … or he will fuzz it up behind his ‘model’ and give a bogus prediction. Hmmm, lose credibility or cause massive panic among the koolaid drinkers, decisions/decisions.

      • jamesm

        Koolaid drinkers are panicking at DKos. Lets see which of the Kos kids is smart enough to call him out.

  • The_Rebel

    I hate to break it to Nate Silver but, I understand that on Monday’s O’Reilly Factor, the director of the Suffolk University polling unit stated that they will no longer be polling Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, as Romney is going to win them, and they have
    painted those states red.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/suffolk-pollster-were-not-polling-florida-virginia-or-north-carolina-anymore-because-romneys-going-to-win-them/

    • streiff

      that’s their spin, I don’t know that it is true and there aren’t financial reasons for the decision.

      • barleycorn

        streiff I don’t understand your comment. Is there any reason to suspect financial considerations are back of this decision? And even if they were why would they need to spin that fact?

      • The_Rebel

        streiff- I wouldn’t denigrate their decision by calling it spin. In the January 2012 New Hampshire GOP Primary, Suffolk predicted that Mitt Romney would receive 37% of the vote in a landslide win. Romney received 39.3%. Later that month, Suffolk went out on a limb in predicting another landslide win for Romney in Florida, with figures indicating that Romney would receive 47% of the vote. Romney received 46.4%. Not a bad track record.

        I question your inference about financial considerations leading to the decision. Certainly the general election is more important than the Republican primaries, so if they had budget constraints they probably would have eliminated some of their earlier polling. And as celador2 said above, they would be risking their reputation by making a flat-out prediction without facts to support it, rather than just discontinuing the polling without explanation.

        • streiff

          that isn’t the story that is circulating in professional circles.

          • The_Rebel

            What is that story?

          • The_Rebel

            Perhaps this story explains what the Suffolk polling firm was seeing in Florida.

            http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/timesbay-news-9herald-exclusive-florida-poll-romney-51-obama-44/1255882

    • celador2

      That decision was so bold they risk their professional reputation as pollsters if the decision was not correct. But they were willing to go on TV and stand by their decision to poll no more on presidential race 2012 in those swing states.
      The Suffolk guest on O’reilly gave statistical reasons I can not remember explaining why they were polling no more. And they were certain the final results would not change.

  • barleycorn

    Silver is starting to squirm a bit. He can goof around with the numbers to a degree and still maintain credibility but there is a limit and after reading today’s entry I’d say he knows he doesn’t have much room left.

    • jamesm

      Liberals know the game. Show Obama winning. This encourages their base, helps in fundraising and discourages the Republican base. Remember the D+13 samples from NYT/CBS poll? I agree that will try to protect his credibility in the liberal circles but outside of that he is dropping like a rock. They are relying on him to come up with some nonsense that sounds like good common sense to the liberal mind. Should be fairly easy to keep whipping up the secret sauce. :)

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Rather than write an overly-long comment, I added my own diary “ROMNEY LEADS”, amplifying the thoughts here. The polls are … encouraging to say the least. Romney’s lead is not a bounce, a fluke or transitory. He’s in a solid and commanding position even among the D-leaning polls we once questioned.

    What should the left do? Well, they SHOULD Panic. Obama is going to lose.

    Now what should WE do? Solidify Romney’s win and HELP DOWNBALLOT RACES, in particular the Senate.

    Someon please do a writeup on the Senate races. Our Pennsylvania candidate Smith is within the margin of error – so is Josh Mandel in Ohio. These would be huge wins, taking out leftwing votes for Obamacare, stimulus and trillion dollar deficits and putting in fiscal conservatives. We need 8 more wins like that to make this a real victory in November. Can we do it? It’s possible. Reagan swept in about 8 or 9 Senators and a lot of these races are within the MOE.

  • Pingback: The 5 Sexiest Photos Of Poll Guru Nate Silver - News, & Celebrity Gossip | Sabdesi.net | News, & Celebrity Gossip | Sabdesi.net

  • Pingback: A List of People Who Should Never Discuss Politics Again | matt desiena