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“The Audacity of Hopelessness”: John McCain puts up a fight, and the AP gets its facts wrong (again)

I'm sorry, were you expecting better from them?

“The safe political choice” for some time now has been “to support some sort of retreat” in Iraq, John McCain acknowledged today in a speech to veterans and media. “Many observers said my approach [of advocating victory in Iraq no matter what the political cost] would ruin my hopes of becoming President,” he said. “My choice was not smart politics. It didn’t test well in focus groups. It ignored all the polls.”

“I told the truth,” McCain declared. “Sen. Obama told the American people what he thought you wanted to hear.”

He continued:

The country I love had one final chance to succeed in Iraq. The new strategy was it. So I supported it. Today, the effects of the new strategy are obvious. The surge has succeeded, and we are, at long last, finally winning this war.

Senator Obama made a different choice. He not only opposed the new strategy, but actually tried to prevent us from implementing it. He didn’t just advocate defeat, he tried to legislate it. When his efforts failed, he continued to predict the failure of our troops. As our soldiers and Marines prepared to move into Baghdad neighborhoods and Anbari villages, Senator Obama predicted that their efforts would make the sectarian violence in Iraq worse, not better.

And as our troops took the fight to the enemy, Senator Obama tried to cut off funding for them. He was one of only 14 senators to vote against the emergency funding in May 2007 that supported our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. …

Three weeks after Senator Obama voted to deny funding for our troops in the field, General Ray Odierno launched the first major combat operations of the surge. Senator Obama declared defeat one month later: “My assessment is that the surge has not worked and we will not see a different report eight weeks from now.” His assessment was popular at the time. But it couldn’t have been more wrong.

Continued below the fold.

By November 2007, the success of the surge was becoming apparent. Attacks on Coalition forces had dropped almost 60 percent from pre-surge levels. American casualties had fallen by more than half. Iraqi civilian deaths had fallen by more than two-thirds. But Senator Obama ignored the new and encouraging reality. “Not only have we not seen improvements,” he said, “but we’re actually worsening, potentially, a situation there.

[...]

Senator Obama and I…faced a decision, which amounted to a real-time test for a future commander-in-chief. America passed that test. I believe my judgment passed that test. And I believe Senator Obama’s failed.

Fortunately, Senator Obama failed, not our military. We rejected the audacity of hopelessness, and we were right. Violence in Iraq fell to such low levels for such a long time that Senator Obama, detecting the success he never believed possible, falsely claimed that he had always predicted it. … In Iraq, we are no longer on the doorstep of defeat, but on the road to victory.

With those words, John McCain delivered a broadside to the rotating versions of reality on Iraq that the Obama Roadshow has been peddling ever since the success of counterinsurgency operations in Iraq, fueled by last year’s “surge,” became evident to the nation (despite the cacophony of denials designed to discredit a real military success for political gain).

The AP: Confusion or Willful Misleading?

“Obama has called for a withdrawal over 16 months,” writes the Associated Press’ Tom Raum in his recounting of the McCain appearance. Raum, it appears, is either ignorant of, or willfully misleading about, the Iraq policy of Barack Obama. In actuality, Obama pushed for a withdrawal from Iraq that would have begun last spring, with the goal of every U.S. soldier having been redeployed from that country by March 2008, regardless of facts on the ground or a worsening security situation.

The Republican presidential nominee, who has long said that he “would rather lose a campaign than lose a war” (the exact opposite of Barack Obama’s apparent view of both campaigns and wars), reiterated the consequences that would take place should failure in Iraq would lead to. Raum’s inattention to the facts (and reality) carried over to his treatment of this portion of McCain’s remarks, as well. He writes:

McCain laid out a near-apocalyptic chain of events he said could have resulted had Obama managed to stop the troop buildup ordered by President Bush: U.S. forces retreating under fire, the Iraqi army collapsing, civilian casualties increasing dramatically, al-Qaida killing cooperative Sunni sheiks and finding safe havens to train fighters and launch attacks on Americans, and civil war, genocide and a wider conflict.

“Above all, America would have been humiliated and weakened,” he said. “Terrorists would have seen our defeat as evidence America lacked the resolve to defeat them. As Iraq descended into chaos, other countries in the Middle East would have come to the aid of their favored factions, and the entire region might have erupted in war.”

First of all, it is highly unlikely that John McCain’s warnings were limited simply to what would have happened “had Obama managed to stop the troop buildup ordered by President Bush.” Rather, McCain’s remarks addressed the consequences of withdrawal from, and of failure in, Iraq. Again, if Raum had spent enough time to actually educate himself on Obama’s Iraq position, he would have seen that McCain was referring to the consequences of forcing a complete U.S. withdrawal by March 2008 — the policy Obama advocated.

Misunderstanding or Denial of the Effects of Withdrawal?

Second, that “near-apocalyptic chain of events” was also the very real chain of events that had the highest probability of taking place had we pulled out all troops and left a weak Iraq that could not maintain its own domestic security — let alone defend itself from its neighbors — in our wake.

John McCain did an excellent job of using today’s appearance to reiterate the proven fact that the so-called “surge,” and the counterinsurgency strategy it was implemented to carry out, was a success that not only prevented the situation in the middle east from spiraling further out of control, but put both Iraq and America within a stone’s throw of victory in a war that Democrats across the country have been declaring was “lost” for well over a year now.

Further, McCain finally went on the offensive, reminding Americans what Barack Obama’s policy has been — complete withdrawal from Iraq by March 2008, regardless of the situation — and reiterating the disastrous consequences of that policy had it not been prevented by realistic and experienced leaders like the senior Senator from Arizona who decided that failure in this war was simply not an option.

He also — thankfully — reminded his audience that Obama said just days ago that, knowing what he knows now about the amazing success of the so-called “surge,” he would still oppose the change in strategy. “Senator Obama said this week that even knowing what he knows today that he still would have opposed the surge,” said McCain. “In retrospect, given the opportunity to choose between failure and success, he chooses failure. I cannot conceive of a Commander in Chief making that choice.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, that part of the address did not make it into Mr. Raum’s story.

Sour Grapes?

It is unfortunate that the Associated Press couldn’t accurately report these statements and Obama’s position on Iraq. Further, the tail end of the AP report reads like a sour-grapes “look at all the cool things the folks covering Obama got to see, and look what I got stuck covering!” laundry list:

For the most part, the side-by-side images weren’t pretty:

_Obama meeting with leaders in Iraq, McCain on a golf cart in Kennebunkport, Maine, with the first President Bush.

_Obama before a sweeping Mideast landscape, McCain holding a news conference in a supermarket in Bethlehem — Pennsylvania, that is — and narrowly escaping an attack from a tumbling stack of apple sauce jars.

_Obama delivering his trip’s keynote speech at Berlin’s Victory Column, McCain eating bratwurst and chatting with reporters at a German restaurant in Columbus, Ohio.

Look, I know Tom Raum must be a bit put out that he drew the short straw and had to cover an old white guy who happens to be a decorated war hero and tried-and-true patriot instead of the Barack Obama Salvation Tour — but just a little attention to detail would be appreciated, you know?

COMMENTS

  • federalistpatriot

    Your assessment is excellent. I watched McCain’s speech and it is one of the best he has given. Here is a link to the speech, which includes what you quoted and discussed.

    McCain Speech to Hispanic Veterans – 7/25/08

  • kowalski

    It’s about time people started giving John McCain some credit here on the Republican side of the blogosphere. I think he had a very clear idea in mind what was going to be required for victory instead of defeat — and let’s face it — he suffered here at Redstate for a long time because he contradicted people in Washington.

    It’s about time the animosity over that ended, I think. It should end with this post, Jeff. I know that John McCain wants to win the war and always has, and the past differences some people have had with him on that in terms of strategy are just old news at this point. I can’t think of anyone prominent who really was saying what he did at the time: and it was a liability here to mention his name and his position.

    Enough is enough. Republicans are going to lose this election unless they can all come to grips with the fact that McCain was right when he spoke to the media about the war and criticized the Bush/Rumsfeld policy.

    Rumsfeld can write all the books he wants but it’s not going to make that any less true. McCain was one of the people in Washington who were telling it like it was, and it’s about time he started getting credit for it.

    Before Barack Obama takes it all because Republicans and Conservatives are too hidebound and stingy to recognize it. Because that’s what Obama is doing.

    We have some seriously idiotic people in this party but if that’s how Obama gets elected, it has to be the stupidest thing we’ve ever done.

    STOP. NOW. PLEASE. (and I don’t mean you personally).

    • kowalski

      Really to me just as an observer (because I supported Mitt Romney) — I have been wondering for a long time now when you could start mentioning John McCain’s name around here in terms of the overall strategy of the War in Iraq without it turning into an argument against him.

      On this score, Republicans haven’t been much better than Democrats, and it’s about time they cut the cr*p, because Rumsfeld (sorry AE) was a pretty terrible SecDef all things considered. He should have quit before he did, at least a year before he did.

  • kowalski

    To Jeff and AE:

    I say these things with the most profound respect for the things each of you have done: you actually put your lives on the line, you went there and all the rest of us just kicked in some pocket change.

    I don’t know whether history will judge Rumsfeld’s strategy right or wrong ultimately, but the surge itself — you’re quite correct — was something McCain believed in principle for a long time before it was “cool” in the MSM.

    • Darin_H

      Enough is enough. Republicans are going to lose this election unless they can all come to grips with the fact that McCain was right when he spoke to the media about the war and criticized the Bush/Rumsfeld policy.

      It’s the reason I came around so early on McCain’s candidacy after almost despising him a few years ago. Turns out it was my problem, not McCain’s. He was completely correct in his assessment of Iraq, the surge and the need for Rumsfeld to go (I still like Rumsfeld, I think he did a better job as SecDef than many give him credit for though). One thing McCain had been steadfast throughout is his willingness to aggressively fight the war.

  • Darin_H

    beloved lord and savior.”

    McCain told the truth about Obama and they couldn’t handle it.

  • rbdwiggins

    Makes one kind of, sort of, almost, but not quite feel sorry for Raum. The left’s entire narrative regarding Iraq is crumbling right before their eyes.

    President Bush was right, the surge has been an overwhelming success by every measure and benchmark mandated by Congress and Obama was consistently wrong on every strategic issue and every vote he cast against our troops.

    Although they’ll certainly try, they won’t be able to reconstruct their lost narrative.

    RealClearPolitics has posted the text of Sen. McCain’s speech to the 2008 American GI Forum. These paragraphs in particular form the basis of a new narrative for Sen. McCain’s campaign, and they should be incorporated into every campaign speech and press conference between now and November.

    Eighteen months ago, America faced a crisis as profound as any in our history. Iraq was in flames, torn apart by violence that was escaping our control. Al Qaeda was succeeding in what Osama bin Laden called the central front in their war against us. The mullahs in Iran waited for America’s humiliation in Iraq, and the resulting increase in their influence. Thousands of Iraqis died violently every month. American casualties were mounting. We were on the brink of a disastrous defeat just a little more than five years after the attacks of September 11, and America faced a profound choice. Would we accept defeat and leave Iraq and our strategic position in the Middle East in ruins, risking a wider war in the near future? Or would we summon our resolve, deploy additional forces, and change our failed strategy? Senator Obama and I also faced a decision, which amounted to a real-time test for a future commander-in-chief. America passed that test. I believe my judgment passed that test. And I believe Senator Obama’s failed.

    We both knew the politically safe choice was to support some form of retreat. All the polls said the “surge” was unpopular. Many pundits, experts and policymakers opposed it and advocated withdrawing our troops and accepting the consequences. I chose to support the new counterinsurgency strategy backed by additional troops — which I had advocated since 2003, after my first trip to Iraq. Many observers said my position would end my hopes of becoming president. I said I would rather lose a campaign than see America lose a war. My choice was not smart politics. It didn’t test well in focus groups. It ignored all the polls. It also didn’t matter. The country I love had one final chance to succeed in Iraq. The new strategy was it. So I supported it. Today, the effects of the new strategy are obvious. The surge has succeeded, and we are, at long last, finally winning this war.

    Senator Obama made a different choice. He not only opposed the new strategy, but actually tried to prevent us from implementing it. He didn’t just advocate defeat, he tried to legislate it. When his efforts failed, he continued to predict the failure of our troops. As our soldiers and Marines prepared to move into Baghdad neighborhoods and Anbari villages, Senator Obama predicted that their efforts would make the sectarian violence in Iraq worse, not better.

    And as our troops took the fight to the enemy, Senator Obama tried to cut off funding for them. He was one of only 14 senators to vote against the emergency funding in May 2007 that supported our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. He would choose to lose in Iraq in hopes of winning in Afghanistan. But had his position been adopted, we would have lost both wars.

    (Snip…)

    If Senator Obama had prevailed, American forces would have had to retreat under fire. The Iraqi Army would have collapsed. Civilian casualties would have increased dramatically. Al Qaeda would have killed the Sunni sheiks who had begun to cooperate with us, and the “Sunni Awakening” would have been strangled at birth. Al Qaeda fighters would have safe havens, from where they could train Iraqis and foreigners, and turn Iraq into a base for launching attacks on Americans elsewhere. Civil war, genocide and wider conflict would have been likely.

    Above all, America would have been humiliated and weakened. Our military, strained by years of sacrifice, would have suffered a demoralizing defeat. Our enemies around the globe would have been emboldened. Terrorists would have seen our defeat as evidence America lacked the resolve to defeat them. As Iraq descended into chaos, other countries in the Middle East would have come to the aid of their favored factions, and the entire region might have erupted in war. Every American diplomat, American military commander, and American leader would have been forced to speak and act from a position of weakness.

    (Snip…)

    Fortunately, Senator Obama failed, not our military. We rejected the audacity of hopelessness, and we were right. Violence in Iraq fell to such low levels for such a long time that Senator Obama, detecting the success he never believed possible, falsely claimed that he had always predicted it. There have been almost no sectarian killings in Baghdad for more than 13 weeks. American casualties are at the lowest levels recorded in this war. The Iraqi Army is stronger and fighting harder. The Iraqi Government has met most of the benchmarks for political progress we demanded of them, and the nation’s largest Sunni party recently rejoined the government. In Iraq, we are no longer on the doorstep of defeat, but on the road to victory.

    It’s good to see that Sen. McCain has finally decided to join the fight and define his opponent’s incompetence and poor judgment. Better late, than never.

  • Vegas_Rick

    It was great. McCain’s finally on offense and, if he keeps this up, we might have a fighting chance. :)

  • IndependentfrMI

    Obama says he would still say no the the surge even with what he has seen in the war zone. Really, what did he see in the minutes he was there? While posing for photos and basketball what did he see? He must have a magic mirror. With so little time spent there by the junior senator what did he really see? One thing is for sure he stands by the artificial timeline for widthdrawal of troops (to appease war protester backing hollywood). While asking other nations to send more troops to Afghanastan. Another sure thing, Obama says he is against troops in a soverign nations, but he’d send them to Darfur and Pakistan, oh thats right they would be called Peacekeeping missions as in the Clinton Admin.

    • Jungledrums

      You are so right, my friend. We must come to terms with the fact that McCain was and is right about winning the war, even if his approach was not acceptable to us initially. This is a man to be admired. I, for one, can’t bring myself to say that about Obama on any level. Why is it that the conservative media can’t wrap themselves around McCain a little more? If we are to win – they must. *Even that lovable little fuzzball should have McCain on his show once a week from now until the election. *To counteract the liberal love and unabashed adoration for Obama, conservative media and individuals would be well served to start promoting all of the best of John McCain – and those best attributes have broad based appeal. Afterall, perception is reality – I mean, look at some of the absolute creeps in Hollywood that are passing as gods. I wish McCain would stop sending me three pieces of mail a day and would begin producing fabulous, Oscar-caliber, top shelf TV ads. I haven’t seen one single ad in Florida. Like it or not, we are in a visual age. There are voters out there, especially younger voters, who will never read a great article written by a top conservative columnist. But they will listen to Rush, Sean, etc…. and they will watch a stunning TV ad.And, as a busy career woman, I have to say that would be the most likely venue for me to connect with McCain as well.

      • skorrent

        That we wholeheartedly support McCain’s new message. “The audacity of hopelessness.” Pour it on, Johnnie Mac!! More! More!

        Now if you guys promise to leave the evaluation of Bush/Rummy to history, I’ll promise not to respond to McCain’s crowing about being “right since “03″ by whispering that it would likely have taken the draft to sustain as many boots on the ground as he was calling for in ’03. As someone said: “You go to war with the Army you have.”

  • pilgrim

    Sen McCain interviewed by a reporter from The Military Times. Here is the full transcript

    Q: What?s your view about military leaders today?

    McCain: I think General Petraeus is one of the finest military leaders this nation has ever produced. I have equally high opinion of [Lt. Gen. Raymond] Odierno. One of the great ? if there is anything good about conflicts, and there?s damn little, one of them is that over time great leaders surface. Every conflict we?ve ever been in from at the beginning, you have to weed out the peacetime guys who have risen to the top by virtue of talents that have very little to do with battlefield leadership.

    I opposed General Casey being chief of staff of the Army, not because I didn?t honor his service to the country, but because he had supported and advocated a failed strategy. When people do that, they should not be rewarded. I didn?t think that General Westmoreland should be made chief of staff of the Army back during the Vietnam War. Sometimes history repeats itself.

    I met personally with General [Ricardo] Sanchez and [Ambassador] Paul Bremer in Baghdad early on, very early on, and I said you don?t have enough troops here. This strategy is going to fail. You have the looting that?s going on; you?ve got to de-Baathificate. You?ve got to do all these things.

    Why did I know that so well? Because that?s what I was hearing from the sergeants major and the colonels and everybody else including my own background and knowledge, and General Sanchez said I support what we?re doing; we?re doing the right thing. We?re going to succeed. I wish he had realized those things back then that he has stated in the last couple of days. I respect and honor his service to the country. I just think he was wrong, and I think General Casey was wrong.

    But I think we are now bringing forward a generation of Army leaders ranging from junior officers and middle-grade officers to generals that are probably as good or better than this country has ever been blessed with, and I?ve had the great pleasure of meeting them and seeing them, and watching the way they lead and inspire the young men and women who serve under them.

    Q: Do you think the Joint Chiefs are giving good advice?

    McCain: They certainly weren?t for a long time, going along with that strategy. I still think that there?s people in the Pentagon that are not sold on the surge, which continues to astonish me. There?s certainly people in the [Senate] Intelligence Committee because I have unclassified versions of the CIA and estimates as short a time as several, a couple months ago, saying the surge was failing. I think events on the ground clearly indicate that?s not the case.

    Q: As the surge winds down, what happens if you, in fact, need that surge to sustain a successful operation?

    McCain: The American people are out of patience. We all know that. For nearly four years, they were frustrated by the ?stuff happens,? ?few dead-enders,? ?last throes.? That?s why I was a little disturbed at the article in the [Washington] Post this morning claiming victory. I think we don?t want to go that route again.

    And so all I can say is I think that we?re in our last chance in Iraq. In other words, this strategy, which is succeeding, the surge ? actually it?s a tactic, if we want to be technical ? is succeeding.

    I bold-faced the last as an example of Sen. McCain and his disagreements with some of the folks here at RS were just about technical tactics. If you are still bitter with Sen. McCain over this for the good of the country stop being bitter, please.

    • gamecock

      nt

      • Jeff_Emanuel

        • pilgrim

          I mostly am trying to say that while several here were more supportive of other candidates some folks need to stop holding any lingering bitterness that we had about Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain needs our vote this November.

          • Jeff_Emanuel

            …in Iraq.

          • pilgrim

            Every time in 2005 and early 2006 when Sen. McCain appeared on a Sunday morning talk show he criticized the tactics that Gen. Casey and Gen. Abizaid executed in Iraq, and some folks threw stuff at their TV when they saw this.

            After the 2006 mid-term elections Pres. Bush changed the tactics with a surge in Iraq. Sen. McCain supported this tactical change. He did not straddle the fence to see how things were going to go. He just supported the change in tactics.

          • Flagstaff

            Rumsfeld isn’t the opponent, Obama is. What is gained by bashing Rumsfeld?

            I intend to link to the McCain speech and listen to it. The parts that have been quoted sound like he’s finally waking up, which is all we want.

            He should pick a VP who can credibly join him on the attack, doubling the firepower against the Obama campaign. If they take turns speaking evey other day, each can hit a different aspect of why McCain is better. That could force Obama to respond to him, rather than McCain always responding to Obama.