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Obama Campaign Lies About Post-Debate Poll in Order to Claim Victory

David Plouffe (rhymes with “bluff”), campaign manager for Barack Obama, sent an email to Obama supporters this evening claiming victory in last night’s debate and asking for further donations from all and sundry.

Interestingly enough, the email cited a broad CBS poll and a supposedly narrower and more accurate CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll as evidence of Obama’s “breakthrough” performance that “show[ed] that Barack is offering the change we need.”

In his email, Plouffe said:

After his erratic and reckless response to the economic crisis [Ed.- What?], McCain needed a game-changer last night to restore his campaign. He didn’t even come close.

In a CBS News poll, uncommitted voters see Barack as the debate winner. When it comes to the economy, 66% say Barack would make the right decisions versus 42% for McCain.

The CNN poll results are also clear:

Who did the best job tonight?
Barack: 51
McCain: 38

Who would better handle Iraq?
Barack: 52
McCain: 47

Who would better handle the economy?
Barack: 58
McCain: 37

These are not the kind of reviews John McCain needed, but they show that Barack is offering the change we need.

Barack broke through last night with voters who were watching — but we need to get the word out to the millions who didn’t tune in.

Those numbers look very good for the Obama campaign and very poor for John McCain — that is, until you look at (a) the fact that the numbers Plouffe claims from the CBS poll (66% for Obama, 42% for McCain) actually add up to 108%, and (b) the actual CNN report on its own poll, which shows that the entire statement above from Barack Obama’s campaign manager is pretty much one big lie.


From the CNN report on its own poll:

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey is not a measurement of the views of all Americans, since only people who watched the debate were questioned and the audience included more Democrats than Republicans. …

Poll interviews were conducted with 524 adult Americans who watched the debate and were conducted by telephone on September 26. All interviews were done after the end of the debate. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.

The part about “uncommitted voters”? Lie.

The claim that the numbers themselves show Obama blowing McCain out of the water in the debate? Lie.

This poll, which was weighted 41% to 27% in favor of Democrat respondents, as proof of much of anything? Pretty darn near a lie, especially when cast as being a balance, reliable poll of “undecideds” in this election.

Trying to make claims like “Obama is trusted over McCain on Iraq by a five-point margin after the debate,” for example, when the polling sample included 14 percent more Democrats than Republicans, is beyond simply fudging the truth a little bit.

Plouffe’s email was, top to bottom, typically and shamelessly dishonest, and he should come clean about that fact to all of the people he lied to by sending this note.

Note:By the way, what’s with the first-name-only for Obama in all these emails, and the last-name-only for Sen. McCain? I for one find it just a bit creepy…

COMMENTS

  • Danack

    The CBS report available from here is solely uncommitted voters.

    Plouffe never said or even implied that the CNN polls were uncommitted voters – I think you must have assumed that.

    He could have been more explicit, but he’s not being deceitful.

  • NohOne

    “When it comes to the economy, 66% say Barack would make the right decisions versus 42% for McCain.”

    66% for Obama + 42% for McCain = 108%

  • Adelthemystic

    is that with the poll weighted that heavily, Barry didn’t convince ALL those Democrats..

    Go McCain Democrats!

    • Adelthemystic

      because the cbs poll says it was conducted right after the debate. Which means it was after legal calling hours in every time zone except the pacific. Which also means the most respondents that they got were in the western states where the polling is already heavily Democrat. Why would we take that kind of stock in a poll conducted in states where Obama is expected to win anyway? They are by no means representative of the rest of the nation.

  • Tbone

    Drudge is the opinion leader in online news and everyone uses it, both left and right to keep up to the minute on important stories. As such, it generates almost 2 million unique users daily and they would be equally split. It would give a much more equitable view and the sampling is enormous. By comparison, Republicans and independents prefer Fox. Its poll was 84% McCain to 15% Obama. Even the tinfoil hat network MSNBC only had Obama 50% to 35% with 15% draw.

    I think most rational observers would go with the Drudge results as being the best general population indicator.

    WHO WON THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?…

    MCCAIN
    68% 255,597

    OBAMA
    30% 112,881

    NEITHER
    3% 9,464

    Total Votes: 377,942

    • Rod_Patrick

      or voters were allowed to vote more than one (ie. a tie).

      Whatever it is, I’m on your side, NohOne.

      • Jeff_Emanuel

        I’ve seen Drudge’s numbers. It’s closer to 20 million a day.

        • E_Pluribus_Unum

          The question was, ‘Will [candidate X] make the right decisions?’ Not ‘Which candidate will make the best decisions?’

          That’s why the results add up to > 100%.

          • Jeff_Emanuel

            Just more dishonesty

  • DroppingBy

    Why is there so much put into polls? I am a Cowboy fan and don’t cheer untill 0:00 in the fourth quarter because Romo is the quarterback. In summation: Who cares about poll results? Taking notes from past two election, we need to worry more about election results.

    With that said, this was a debate on foreign policy, McCain’s strong suit, and McCain broke even. Granted the moderator started out the the economy, McCain’s burden, McCain should still have “shined like the city on the hill”, but he broke even. I say “broke even” because he should have done a lot better, hence he lost. Obama had nothing to lose IMHO, he just had to show.

    This was actually McCain chance for a correction in the battle of the campaigns and a meager win will not be enough, unfortunately. Also, Obama was able to push his buttons to the point one felt if McCain looked at him he would just explode in a tirade of “knowledge”.

    Also, it is said “it is not by age but by knowledge that wisdom is found”.

    Hopefully we will see McCain’s knowledge and not his age “shine” in the next debate.

    • E_Pluribus_Unum

      Just look for the union label.

  • DroppingBy

    More people need to listen to Pat Buchanan and the meaning of polls in elections. Don’t get your hopes up.

    Let’s mark this one up and move to the next and hope we don’t need a hail mary in the fourth quarter to win the election.

    • SeanH90050

      and you know what happens when Romo has a “Farve Moment”, or Roy Williams lets another receiver run past him, and how it has set the momentum back on the team in the recent past.

      That’s what polls are about, momentum. They can turn quick, just like in football, but it’s always good to have it on your side. Yeah, we’re in the 3rd Q now, but we started behind, and still are.

      Lets at least hope Dallas keeps their Mo going tomorrow vs the Skins!

      • Rod_Patrick

        It only proves that CNN claim is as partisan as FoxNews and the rest of the MSM.

        More importantly,

        I’ll just wait and see how the debate will affect the “polls that I prefer“.

  • Rod_Patrick

    Link

    But as usual, Newsweek’s Romano is downplaying the debate because McCain won it.

    • weave

      Online polls without some sort of authenticated user logons are useless (and even then, if they have open registrations, are still useless). Any computer geek can game a poll after taking just one class in a scripting language.

      • Danack

        Nor were they all from california.

        The people were ‘a nationally representative sample of nearly 500 debate watchers assembled by Knowledge Networks who were ?uncommitted voters?’ – according to the report itself.

        Yeah, it’s not a random sample but a self-selecting group that had volunteered to be contacted about the debate, which could be bogus; just to discount the results because they don’t feel right to you is a bit silly though.

        • zebrapants

          so, jeff was reading the wrong poll results? the plouffe email was accurate?

          • Danack

            ‘jeff was reading the wrong poll results? the plouffe email was accurate?’

            Yes, and yes.

            Oh and for this bit:

            “the fact that the numbers Plouffe claims from the CBS poll (66% for Obama, 42% for McCain) actually add up to 108%”

            It was asked as two separate questions:

            Would make the right decisions about the economy – Among uncommitted voters who watched debate

            Obama Yes 66% No 33%
            McCain Yes 42% No 57%

            i.e. not one question like ‘who would make the right decisions’.

            Obviously the yes % from two separate questions doesn’t have to add up to anything in particular.

          • Danack

            “When it comes to the economy, 66% say Barack would make the right decisions versus 42% for McCain.”

            How is this implying that it’s an either/or question? He’s saying the exact results of the poll – how could he possibly quote them any more clearly?