Do todays polls mean the President is doomed?  Read on and decide what your take is on the prophetic power of polls…..

Ronald Reagan, the nation’s 40th president, became one of the nation’s most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the more routinely average ratings he received while he served in office between 1981 and 1989. Reagan’s job approval ratings in his first years in office were hurt by the bad economy.

Things got worse for Reagan in 1982. The public’s view of the economy remained sour, and the president’s ratings during 1982 stayed concomitantly low, in the 40% range, ending the year at 41%. The 1982 midterm elections were not good ones for Reagan and for the GOP. The Republicans lost about 25 seats in the House.

A clear cause for all of this was the economy. Still, Gallup analysts at the time presciently noted that there was some cause for optimism for Reagan:

10/9/82
***Jobless Rate Is Up To 10.1% In Month. Worst In 42 Years. 11 Million Are Idle – The New York Times***

Throughout the year [1982] a solid majority of Gallup’s respondents have taken the position that Reaganomics will worsen, rather than improve, their own financial situation.

Yet, Gallup consistently has found somewhat more public faith that Reaganomics will help the nation as a whole and even more faith in the president’s program when the question is posed with regard to the long run.

Surveys also indicate that the public has more confidence in Reagan than approval ratings of his performance would suggest. While only one third approve of the way he is handling the economy, close to half express some degree of confidence that he will do the right thing with regard to the economy.

Indeed, although 1983 began for Reagan with a 35% job approval rating — the worst of his administration — things started to look better.

By 1984, Reagan’s job approval ratings were consistently above the 50% line that is a symbolic standard for an incumbent president seeking re-election. In Gallup’s last October poll before the November 1984 election, Reagan received a 58% job approval rating, and he went on to soundly defeat Democratic nominee Walter Mondale by a 59% to 41% popular vote margin, receiving 525 electoral votes to Mondale’s 13.

Reagan continued to soar in 1985, routinely receiving ratings in the 60% range. In May 1986, Reagan received a 68% job approval rating, tied for the highest of his administration.

Reagan’s last two Gallup job approval ratings before he left office were 57% in mid-November and 63% in December 1988.

The highest job approval rating of the Reagan administration was 68% — reached twice, in May 1981 and as previously indicated, in May 1986.

***As noted, the low point was 35% in January 1983.***

MARCH 1982

This The Godfather of American Conservatism, this is the senior Republican senator from Arizona talking, the man who has served as the “conscience” of the conservative movement for a generation.

These days, his ire is aimed at his fellow conservatives, or at least that faction that is trying to strip the courts of jurisdiction over such social issues as abortion, busing and school prayer. “This is not a conservative concept, believe me,” Goldwater said of the campaign on the courts. “I’ve spent my whole life railing against those who use any excuse to get around the law or the Constitution.” The old Arizona battler, who at one point seemed to be surrendering to age, gimpy limbs and younger ideologues, has suddenly begun to shoot holes through a lot of ideas that are described as conservative.

Abortion, he says, should be a private matter; the military budget I should be subject to greater scrutiny; arms control might not be a bad idea. Here is a man who stays true to certain basic principles, yet seems willing to learn as conditions change around him.

“We hope we can stop the others,” he said. “I don’t think anyone on this floor wants another fight, especially over abortion.

These sorts of comments pinch a throbbing nerve in the conservative camp. One of the foremost publications of the right, Human Events, recently printed an article headlined “Goldwater Dismays Conservatives Again.” And Sen. Orrin G. Hatch, R-Utah, said pointedly, “Goldwater has never been known as a constitutional expert.”

In response, the Arizona Republican tells his critics where to go. And while such talk is not ordinarily heard in the Capitol, normally a palace of politeness, Goldwater is not an ordinary lawmaker: candidate for president,

Senator for 26 years, the man who got Ronald Reagan into politics, a professional curmudgeon who has never put tact or delicacy high on his list of desirable political graces. He intends to retire after his current term ends in 1986 and, at the age of 73, he figures he can say anything he wants.

“When you don’t have to worry how people at home will vote,” he said, “you feel much more free to tell what you really think.”

“His chief value,” said Sen. Charles Mathias, Jr., a liberal Republican from Maryland, “is that helps makes people stop and think.”

“Rather than moving with the ideological tides,” said Mathias, “he’s clearly trying to keep his sights on the same landmarks that have always been important to.

Besides, Goldwater believes you can’t legislate morality even if you want to. He says he learned that lesson as a young man in Prohibition when he brewed illicit beer for his father. He fears that the conservative revolution led by Ronald Reagan could collapse under its own moral self-importance.

“I don’t want to see conservatism join with the ills of liberalism,” he said.

Barry Goldwater is a true Westerner, a man who prizes free will and open spaces, and he is particularly perturbed by the linkage of conservative politics with religious leaders.

In his view, they have prix-fixe moral menus: no substitutions allowed. ”They say that you have to go along with them 100 percent or, by God, they’re going to get you,” the senator asserted. “That’s wrong, that’s the way the Communists talk.”

In recent years, Goldwater had virtually dropped from sight in the Senate. He had the worst attendance record in the entire body, and was viewed more as a figure of history than of current consequence. What changed all that was the right-wing attack last summer on Sandra Day O’Connor, the Arizona judge who was the first woman nominated for the Supreme Court.

The senator was irked. He came charging out of the chute like a young bronco with a burr under his saddle, and his continuing fulminations against what he sees as rightwing assaults on the Constitution have garnered wide attention. “Nothing I’ve done since I ran for presidenthas gotten as much press notice as this,” he admitted.

Like many older conservatives, Goldwater has always been suspicious of the Washington press corps, and he chides younger Republicans who “literally can’t go to the bathroom without issuing a press release.”

But no politician likes being ignored, and the “old man,” as he refers to himself, clearly likes all the fuss.

**WE CONSERVATIVES SHOULD BE ANGRY ABOUT THIS SUBJECT**

http://gaslandthemovie.com/trailer/

“What is a conservative after all but one who conserves, one who is committed to protecting and holding close the things by which we live…And we want to protect and conserve the land on which we live — our countryside, our rivers and mountains, our plains and meadows and forests. This is our patrimony. This is what we leave to our children. And our great moral responsibility is to leave it to them either as we found it or better than we found it.”

Ronald Reagan

“If we’ve learned any lessons during the past few decades, perhaps the most important is that preservation of our environment is not a partisan challenge; it’s common sense. Our physical health, our social happiness, and our economic well-being will be sustained only by all of us working in partnership as thoughtful, effective stewards of our natural resources.”

Ronald Reagan

Hydraulic Fracturing FAQs

How does hydraulic fracturing work?

Hydraulic fracturing or fracking is a means of natural gas extraction employed in deep natural gas well drilling. Once a well is drilled, millions of gallons of water, sand and proprietary chemicals are injected, under high pressure, into a well. The pressure fractures the shale and props open fissures that enable natural gas to flow more freely out of the well.

What is horizontal hydraulic fracturing?

Horizontal hydrofracking is a means of tapping shale deposits containing natural gas that were previously inaccessible by conventional drilling. Vertical hydrofracking is used to extend the life of an existing well once its productivity starts to run out, sort of a last resort. Horizontal fracking differs in that it uses a mixture of 596 chemicals, many of them proprietary, and millions of gallons of water per frack. This water then becomes contaminated and must be cleaned and disposed of.

What is the Halliburton Loophole?

In 2005, the Bush/ Cheney Energy Bill exempted natural gas drilling from the Safe Drinking Water Act. It exempts companies from disclosing the chemicals used during hydraulic fracturing. Essentially, the provision took the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) off the job. It is now commonly referred to as the Halliburton Loophole.

What is the Safe Drinking Water Act?

In 1974, the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) was passed by Congress to ensure clean drinking water free from both natural and man-made contaminates.

What is the FRAC Act?

The FRAC Act (Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness to Chemical Act) is a House bill intended to repeal the Halliburton Loophole and to require the natural gas industry to disclose the chemicals they use.

How deep do natural gas wells go?

The average well is up to 8,000 feet deep. The depth of drinking water aquifers is about 1,000 feet. The problems typically stem from poor cement well casings that leak natural gas as well as fracking fluid into water wells.

How much water is used during the fracking process?

Generally 1-8 million gallons of water may be used to frack a well. A well may be fracked up to 18 times.

What fluids are used in the fracking process?

For each frack, 80-300 tons of chemicals may be used. Presently, the natural gas industry does not have to disclose the chemicals used, but scientists have identified volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene.

In what form does the natural gas come out of the well?

The gas comes up wet in produced water and has to be separated from the wastewater on the surface. Only 30-50% of the water is typically recovered from a well. This wastewater can be highly toxic.

What is done with the wastewater?

Evaporators evaporate off VOCs and condensate tanks steam off VOCs, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The wastewater is then trucked to water treatment facilities.

What is a well’s potential to cause air pollution?

As the VOCs are evaporated and come into contact with diesel exhaust fr

If you were asked to judge a policy proposal for addressing a social issue, which would be more important to you, the content of the proposal or the party that wrote it?

Most of us would answer that the specific policies would be much more important than the political party that proposed it. Most of us would be dead wrong.

Political marketers know that they have to target swing voters (undecideds, independents, etc.) with their ads and other efforts because trying to change the mind of committed party members is next to impossible.

In The Neuroscience of Political Marketing described research by Drew Westen at Emory shows political messages were processed primarily in an emotional, not rational, way.

A study by social psychologist Geoffrey Cohen at Yale shows that cognitive dissonance plays a big role in the way people evaluate political issues, and that they will adjust their beliefs (and maybe facts) as needed to resolve that dissonance.

Cohen’s experiment was simple. He organized two groups of subjects, one composed of liberal Democrats, the other of conservative Republicans.

Then, he showed them very different proposals on the topic of welfare.

One policy proposal was very liberal, and involved large expenditures of tax money. The other was harshly conservative, and proposed far lower levels of assistance and expense.

As you might expect, the liberal subjects preferred the free-spending plan while the conservatives liked the restrictive plan.

Here’s the bizarre twist: when the subjects were told that the plan they didn’t like had been proposed by their own party, their attitudes changed and they favored the plan they had initially opposed.

Liberals thought that cracking down on welfare was a good idea, while conservatives found they could justify opening the coffers for this important social purpose. They even wrote essays explaining why the policy they now favored was appropriate.

And, as Neuromarketing readers could anticipate, the subjects were unaware of this influence.

They did think that other people were influenced by party beliefs, but considered their own decision-making to be rational and not tainted by politics.

latest news on neuromarketing, it works like magic…

http://www.research-live.com/features/new-scientist-hails-neuromarketing-test-a-success/4003516.article

http://www.dnaindia.com/lifestyle/report_new-discoveries-in-nuroscience-revolutionise-marketing_1433776

My questions, his words

1. Senator what is your take on the culture war and its influence on conservative politics?

“Well, I’ve spent quite a number of years carrying the flag of the ‘Old Conservatism.’ And I can say with conviction that the religious issues of these groups have little or nothing to do with conservative or liberal politics. The uncompromising position of these groups is a divisive element that could tear apart the very spirit of our representative system, if they gain sufficient strength.

“Being a conservative in America traditionally has meant that one holds a deep, abiding respect for the Constitution. We conservatives believe sincerely in the integrity of the Constitution. We treasure the freedoms that document protects. . .

“By maintaining the separation of church and state, the United States has avoided the intolerance which has so divided the rest of the world with religious wars . . .

Can any of us refute the wisdom of Madison and the other framers? Can anyone look at the carnage in Iran, the bloodshed in Northem Ireland, or the bombs bursting in Lebanon and yet question the dangers of injecting religious issues into the affairs of state?”

2. Is unity or conformity more important to a political cause?

“This is a party– this Republican party is a party for free men. Not for blind followers and not for conformists. Back in 1858 Abraham Lincoln said this of the Republican party-and I quote him because he probably could have said it during the last week or so..

Our Republican cause is not to level out the world or make its people conform in computer-regimented sameness. Our Republican cause is to free our people and light the way for liberty throughout the world.

3. Speaking of liberty can you tell me what are some of your non negotiable values, politics be damned?

“Balance, diversity, creative difference-these are the elements of Republican equation. Republicans agree, Republicans agree heartily to disagree on many, many of their applications. But we have never disagreed on the basic fundamental issues of why you and I are Republicans.

Anyone who joins us in all sincerity, we welcome. Those, those who do not care for our cause, we don”t expect to enter our ranks, in any case. And let our Republicanism so focused and so dedicated not be made fuzzy and futile by unthinking and stupid labels.

Thus do we seek inventiveness, diversity, and creative difference within a stable order, for we Republicans define government’s role where needed at many, many levels– preferably, though, the one closest to the people involved: our towns and our cities, then our counties, then our states, then our regional contacts, and only then the national government.

4. What about the Gay Issue?

“The big thing is to make this country, along with every other country in the world with a few exceptions, quit discriminating against people just because they’re gay, you don’t have to agree with it, but they have a constitutional right to be gay. And that’s what brings me into it.”

To be continued in my next post…..If you are a Republican or a Dem watch this 6 minute video on the Senator and you will be surprised   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7kdLEjb9gM