Senate Update

Connecticut: Former US Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley officially entered the field of candidates vying for the Republican Senatorial nomination. Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri are already running. Sen. Chris Dodd (D) continues to be one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents.

Florida: While one Democratic Senatorial candidate dropped out of the race, another potential contender stated that she may enter. State Sen. Dan Gelber officially ended his Senate campaign in order to pursue a race for the state’s Chief Financial Officer position. He is also a possibility to be tabbed as presumptive gubernatorial nominee Adelaide “Alex” Sink’s running mate for Lt. Governor. Conversely, Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL-3) made a public statement saying she is considering running for the Senate. A self-proclaimed ally of the Meek family – Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) is currently the leading candidate – Brown says that her 17 years of congressional experience is a strong asset for her possible statewide campaign. Republican Gov. Charlie Crist is favored in both the GOP primary and general elections.

Minnesota: The seven-month long post-election process to determine the winner of the November 4th Senate contest entered another phase. Both candidates made their oral arguments before the Minnesota state Supreme Court. Because two of the seven justices were appointed to the original canvassing commission, the case is being heard by just five jurists. Republican Norm Coleman is asking the state’s highest court to overturn a lower court ruling posting leftist Al Franken to a 312-vote victory.

New York: Liberal sources are claiming that Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY-14) is telling colleagues and constituents that she will challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) next year. Like Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY-2) who went right up to the line of forming an exploratory committee only to back down at the personal request of President Obama, it remains to be seen if Maloney actually declares her candidacy.

North Carolina: In an announcement generating little surprise, Elizabeth Edwards (D) the wife of former Vice-Presidential nominee and Sen. John Edwards, stated that she would not challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R) next year. Edwards had been tested in polling against Burr, but hadn’t made any discernable move to enter the race against him.

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Senate Update

Arkansas: Though poll numbers show vulnerability for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), a promising Republican potential contender has decided not to make the race. Former US Attorney Tim Griffin, who according to at least one national poll posted to within single digits of Lincoln, announced he will not make the challenge. Republicans are still searching for a top-tier candidate.

Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac University poll (5/20-25; 1,575 CT registered voters) continues to show bad news for five-term Sen. Chris Dodd (D). Paired with former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2), Dodd trails 45-39%. The more troubling signal for Dodd, however, could be the Senator’s early performance against little known GOP state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. The former Presidential candidate only leads him 41-39%, a clear sign of serious weakness for the scandal-tainted incumbent.

Florida: Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL-22), always keeping his name alive for the open Senate race but never making any concrete moves to get in, officially announced that he will seek re-election to the House. At this point, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) is unimpeded for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Charlie Crist and former House Speaker Marco Rubio are running on the Republican side.

Illinois: After a Chicago press report suggested that Christopher Kennedy, president of Chicago’s Merchandise Mart, Inc. and son of former Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, would announce a Senatorial campaign committee this week, Mr. Kennedy himself refuted the story, saying such a statement is premature. He further said that he has made no final decision to run.

Kentucky: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who held Sen. Jim Bunning (R) to a 51-49% win five years ago, just released a Garin Hart Yang survey (5/12-13; 336 D primary voters) conducted for his new Senatorial campaign. The results show Mongiardo leading Attorney General Jack Conway 43-28% in the Democratic primary. The Conway campaign criticized the poll as having too small of a sampling universe to be statistically significant. Bunning continues to languish as the GOP’s weakest Senator running for re-election. GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, also of Kentucky, and other national Republican leaders want Bunning to retire. Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson waits in the wings.

North Carolina: New polling puts Sen. Richard Burr (R) in significantly better re-election position now that Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) will not challenge him next year. In a new just-released survey, Burr places ahead of seven different NC political figures including Elizabeth Edwards (+11 points), and Reps. Bob Etheridge and Heath Shuler (leading both by 16), in addition to Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (+19 points) who has already said he won’t run. Ms. Edwards, as well, is an unlikely candidate. Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) was not included in the Public Policy Polling survey (5/19-21; 798 registered NC voters), even though he has been the most positive about running after Cooper decided to remain in his current position.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) is reportedly telling supporters that he will challenge Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter next year in the April Democratic primary and will soon publicly announce his intentions. A new Quinnipiac University poll (5/20-26; 1,191 PA registered voters; 561D/517R) has Specter leading Sestak 50-21%. In hypothetical general election pairings, Specter leads former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA-15) 46-37% and Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) 45-36%.

House Update

AL-5: Navy veteran Lester Phillip, currently the Minority Outreach Director for the Alabama Republican Party, has announced a challenge to freshman Rep. Parker Griffith (D) of Huntsville. The Congressman defeated insurance businessman Wayne Parker, Jr. (R) 52-48% in 2008.

GA-9: State Rep. Tom Graves joined an increasingly large Republican primary field, all of whom are vying to replace Rep. Nathan Deal (R), who is running for Governor. Also in the race are is ex-Transportation Commission chairman Mike Evans, former state Sen. Bill Stephens, and County Commissioner Mike Cowan. The GOP nominee is a sure winner in the general election.

MO-7: State Senator Gary Nodler joined the Republican field to replace Rep. Roy Blunt (R), who is running for Senate. Also in the race is fellow state Sen. Jack Goodman and auctioneer Billy Long. The winner of the August 2010 GOP primary battle will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

NC-8: Republican attempts to recruit former Carolina Panthers defensive back Mike Minter into the race against freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) have failed. Minter announced he will not run for Congress next year.

PA-12: Rep. John Murtha (D), under the cloud of a federal investigation that is reportedly examining his Defense appropriation earmarks, has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. Ryan Bucchianeri, a former State Department official and Naval officer this week announced his candidacy. Unless the investigation becomes more serious, Murtha will easily secure renomination for a 19th term in the House.

Governor Update

Alaska: Ethan Berkowitz (D) who, as the 2006 Lt. Governor nominee, lost to the Palin-Parnell Republican ticket and then returned to lose to scandal-ridden Rep. Don Young (R) in 2008, says he will challenge Gov. Sarah Palin (R) next year. The former Vice-Presidential nominee has not stated her own electoral plans for 2010, but most observers believe she will seek re-election. With Berkowitz’s losing record in the past four years, Palin will be the prohibitive favorite should she seek another term.

Alabama: Republican Bradley Byrne, the Chancellor of Alabama’s Two-Year College System, announced that he will run for Governor. Byrne is expected to be a strong contender. Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term-limited. Competitive primaries will occur on both sides. The GOP nominee will begin the general election as the favorite.

Michigan: Republican Attorney General Mike Cox officially announced his candidacy for Governor. Cox joins Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) as major GOP candidates. Lt. Gov. John Cherry is the leading Democratic contender. Recent polls suggest tight primary campaigns for both parties and an equally close general election race. Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is term-limited.

Minnesota: Survey USA (5/18-19; 551 registered MN voters via automated messaging) tested Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) against nine different potential Democratic challengers. The Governor, still deciding whether to run for a third term, leads every potential opponent, most of whom by double-digits. The two closest challengers would be ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (trailing Pawlenty 47-43%) and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (down 47-42%).

Oklahoma: Former Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK-4) announced he will not run for Governor next year. This is a big boost to Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5), who has already made her candidacy official. Early polling pegs Fallin, previously Oklahoma’s Lt. Governor, to double-digit leads over both Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D). Gov. Brad Henry (D) is term-limited.

Virginia: Two new polls basically confirm last week’s Survey USA data that showed former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe pulling away from his gubernatorial primary opponents. Research 2000 (5/18-20; 600 likely VA Dem primary voters) posts McAuliffe to a 36-22-13% lead over former Alexandria Delegate Brian Moran and state Sen. Creigh Deeds, respectively. Public Policy Polling, in their survey (5/19-21; 617 likely VA Dem primary voters) reveals similar, but closer, numbers, and with Deeds in a much stronger position. Their study says McAuliffe polls at 29%, and the other two share 20% apiece. Republican Bob McDonnell leads all potential opponents and is in strong position to convert this state to the GOP column.

SENATE UPDATE

Connecticut: Software company executive Merrick Alpert (D), a former Air Force officer and aide to Vice-President Al Gore, announced his intentions to challenge Sen. Chris Dodd in the 2010 Democratic primary. Sports agent Roger Pearson is also a candidate for the nomination. Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2), state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, and stockbroker Peter Schiff are announced Republican candidates. Simmons should win the primary and is a strong bet to defeat Dodd.

Florida: A new Mason-Dixon poll (5/14-18; 625 registered FL voters) shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) with a huge early lead over Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17), 55-24%. Additionally, the same poll posts Crist to a 53-18% margin over conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary.

New York: Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY-2), previously indicating that he would challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), has changed his mind after President Obama personally asked him to pass on the race. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY-14) says she is still considering running, but Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer (D) will also forego his candidacy after earlier testing the waters.

North Carolina: After polling dead even with Sen. Richard Burr (R), Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) announced that he would not run for Senate next year. Democrats are now searching for a candidate, even returning to ask Reps. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) and Heath Shuler (D-NC-11), to reconsider their publicly stated intentions not to run. Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) is sounding the most positive about running. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker continue to rule out their own Senatorial candidacies. This development is a big plus for the conservative Burr

Oklahoma: While American Hero Sen. Tom Coburn (R) says he will announce his future plans during the first week of June, a new poll shows him standing tall against the Democrats’ strongest possible candidate, term-limited Gov. Brad Henry. A new Public Policy Polling company survey (5/13-17; 715 OK voters) shows Coburn leading Henry 52-40%. Should the Senator decide not to seek re-election, other Republican potential candidates such as Rep. Tom Cole (R-Ok-4) and former Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK-4) run in dead heats against Henry.

Ohio: State Auditor Mary Taylor (R) ended speculation that she would challenge former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman (R) for the GOP Senate nomination. Taylor instead announced that she will seek re-election to her present position. This is good news all around because Portman doesn’t need to spend money in the primary and Taylor’s position has redistricting implications.

HOUSE UPDATE

AL-2: Montgomery city Councilor Martha Roby officially announced her congressional candidacy against freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL-2). This district is one of the most Republican seats to fall to a Democrat in 2008 as Bright out-dueled former state Rep. Jay Love (R) by 1,800 votes. Love is also a possible 2010 candidate.

CA-32: The May 19th special election primary produced two Chu’s for the general election. Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu, a former state Assemblywoman, defeated state Senator Gil Cedillo and financial analyst Emanuel Pleitez, 32-24-13%, to win the Democratic nomination. Betty Chu, a distant relative of Judy’s, won the Republican nomination. The two will square off on July 14th for the right to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis in Congress. Judy Chu is an overwhelming favorite because of the Democratic nature of the district.

CA-36: Marcy Winograd, who drew 37.5% of the vote against Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) in the 2006 Democratic primary, announced that she will run again next year. Harman has been at odds with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the CIA waterboarding controversy and other Intelligence Committee-related matters. The Congresswoman was ranking member of the House panel during the 2005-6 congressional session, but Pelosi did not appoint her as chair when the Democrats re-captured the House majority.

IL-13: Last week, Democrat Scott Harper officially renewed his challenge to Rep. Judy Biggert (R-IL-13). This week, the 71-year old incumbent announced that she will seek a seventh-term in the House. Biggert won by nine points in 2008 and is a bigger favorite in 2010.

MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI-13), who survived her 2008 renomination fight with only a small plurality of votes, will again fend off challenges from her previous Democratic opponents. State Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters both say they will run again. Defeated Mayor Ken Cockrel, who succeeded Kilpatrick’s scandal-tainted son in the Mayor’s office only to lose earlier this month to former Detroit Pistons basketball star Dave Bing, is also saying the congressional race is “of interest”.

GOVERNOR UPDATE

Colorado: Former Rep. Scott McInnis (R-CO-3) officially announced that he will challenge Gov. Bill Ritter (D) next year. McInnis, who retired from Congress in 2004, has been mentioned as a possible statewide candidate ever since. The former Representative has the inside track to the Republican nomination and early polls have even pegged him to a small lead over Gov. Ritter. McInnis has a real shot to win here.

Florida: Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) officially announced his candidacy for Governor, now that incumbent Charlie Crist (R) is running for Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson (R), who was originally expected to follow suit, is now reportedly backing away from launching a campaign of his own. This is a huge boost for McCollum and goes a long way to possibly making him the lone GOP candidate. The state’s Chief Financial Officer, Adelaide “Alex” Sink (D), mirroring the Republican situation, is likely to become the consensus Democratic candidate as, likewise, no major primary opponent is surfacing. McCollum was elected Attorney General in 2006, after serving 20 years in the US House. He twice lost statewide bids for Senate. Sink was elected Florida CFO three years ago in her first run for public office. Her husband, Bill McBride, is a defeated 2002 gubernatorial candidate. The aforementioned Mason-Dixon poll posts McCollum to an early 40-34%. McCollum is under-rated as a campaigner and Sink is over-rated. This will shape up to be a good race.

Iowa: Republican state Auditor Dave Vaudt announced that he will not challenge Gov. Chet Culver (D) next year. So far, the GOP has no strong candidates running. Conservative Rep. Steve King (R-IA-5) has not ruled out a statewide run.

New Jersey: After a Rasmussen Reports poll showed that former US Attorney Christopher Christie’s Republican gubernatorial primary lead was slipping against former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, two new surveys are showing the opposite. A new Monmouth University study (5/13-18; 706 NJ Republican voters) posts Christie to a 50-32% primary lead, while the latest Quinnipiac University Q-Poll (5/13-18; 543 likely NJ GOP voters) pegs Christie’s advantage at 56-33%. Christie continues to lead unpopular Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine by high single-digits.

Oklahoma: The Public Policy Polling survey (5/13-17; 715 OK voters) that forecast Sen. Coburn’s strong standing, also tested the upcoming open seat Governor’s race. Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5) fares best. She leads Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) 48-38%, and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) 50-34%. This is a prime conversion opportunity for Republicans.

Utah: The appointment of Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) as the new US Ambassador to China means that Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert (R) will ascend to the Governorship upon the former’s official confirmation. Herbert will now have to stand for a special election in 2010 to fill the balance of the current term, which expires in 2012. The Democrats’ strongest potential candidates appear to be Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2), Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon, and Salt Lake City Mayor Peter Becker. No one, including Herbert, has made any public comment about whether or not they will enter this new race.

Virginia: The latest Survey USA poll (5/17-19; 502 likely VA Democratic voters) is showing a clear spread in the Democratic primary field. Former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe is the big gainer in the latest survey, and former Alexandria Delegate Brian Moran is badly slipping. The new numbers show McAuliffe with a 37-26-22% lead over state Sen. Creigh Deeds and Moran, respectively. In the general election, where the sample size rises to 1,692 registered VA voters, Republican former Attorney General Bob McDonnell continues to lead all contenders. Against both McAuliffe and Deeds, McDonnell’s advantage is a consistent 46-40%. Paired with Moran, the former AG’s margin increases to 47-37%. A McDonnell victory would be huge for national GOP prospects.

Senate Update

Colorado: Weld County (Greeley) District Attorney Ken Buck (R) officially announced his candidacy for the Senate seat of appointed incumbent Michael Bennet (D). Buck joins Aurora at-Large City Councilman Ryan Frazier as an official Republican candidate. Former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7) is also a potential contender. Polling already shows a close race and this seat is in play for the Republicans.

Florida: It appears that Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will make an official announcement about his 2010 electoral plans next week. It is now better than an even bet that he will run for the Senate. This will set off a wild scramble for the vacated Governor’s post, but Crist will be in a strong position for election to the Senate. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio are the leading Democratic candidates, though the latter has not officially announced her candidacy.

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Senate Update

Arizona: Sen. John McCain (R) will have at least one Republican primary challenger next year. Chris Simcox, the founder of the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps an outspoken border protection group, officially announced his candidacy.

Arkansas: State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren (R) announced he will challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) next year. Hendren, 71, ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 1982, losing the Republican primary. Lincoln is expected to draw stronger opposition later and is surprisingly vulnerable for re-election. Former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is the strongest of the potential candidates.

Colorado: Public Policy Polling completed a new statewide survey (4/17-19; 1,050 CO voters) that showed appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in a politically weakened condition. He trails former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7) by one point, 43-42%, but beats lesser known GOP candidates. Sen. Bennet leads Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier 39-35%; Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck 40-34%; and state Senate Minority Leader Josh Pendry 41-34%.

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Senate Update

Colorado: As expected, African American at-large Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) announced that the will challenge appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). The 31-year old Frazier becomes the first official Republican to enter the race. The seat became vacant when Sen. Ken Salazar (D) was appointed Secretary of the Interior. Frazier is a rising star within the Colorado GOP and is well-positioned to give Bennet a strong run.

Florida: A new Quinnipiac University poll (4/6-13; 1,332 FL voters – 570 Republicans/474 Democrats) suggests that Floridians would prefer that Gov. Charlie Crist (R) run for re-election instead of seeking the state’s open Senate seat. By a margin of 42-26%, voters think Crist should run for Governor and not Senate. Testing primary preferences should Crist decide to run for federal office, the findings show he would crush any GOP opponent, at least at the present time. Fifty-four percent of the Republican respondents would support Crist. Both former House Speaker Marco Rubio and Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL-13) registered only 8% support apiece. Among Democrats, a close battle is ensuing between Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17), who polled 16%, and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio who posted 15%. Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL-22) followed with 8%, and state Sen. Dan Gelber brought up the rear at 5%.

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Senate Update

Kentucky: A new Public Policy Polling survey (4/2-3; 610 KY voters) shows Sen. Jim Bunning (R) losing to all potential challengers. Against Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), Bunning trails 47-33%; the margin is 42-33% when paired with Attorney General Jack Conway; 42-34% against state Auditor Crit Luallen; and 43-36% when the opponent is Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, the man who held Bunning to a 51-49% victory in 2004. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and others have been urging Bunning to retire, and their persuasion must succeed if the GOP is to have any chance of holding the state. Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) polls in the even range when paired with the same Democrats.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Alaska: Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and officials of the Alaska Republican Party have called upon Sen. Mark Begich (D) to resign his seat in light of the Justice Department revelations about former Sen. Ted Stevens. Attorney General Eric Holder dropped all charges against Stevens due to previous DoJ prosecutorial misconduct violations in their pursuit of the 40-year Senatorial veteran. Palin stated that a special election should be called since Begich was elected under false pretenses. Alaska has a recall law, but it does not apply to federal officials.

Connecticut: Quinnipiac University released the results of their new Connecticut survey (3/26-31; 1,181 likely CT voters), showing ethically challenged Sen. Christopher Dodd being trounced by former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) 50-34%. Dodd also trails state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, who officially announced his candidacy earlier in the week, 41-37%. Former Ambassador Tom Foley would beat Dodd 43-35%. The “Senator-for-Life”s’ job approval dropped to 33%. This is the first poll taken since the AIG-bonus flap involving Dodd. Look for Democrats to try to force him out of the race before they lose to Simmons.

Florida: Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14) ended speculation that he would run for the Senate. The three-term Congressman announced plans to seek re-election and said he endorses Gov. Charlie Crist (R) for whatever office, either Governor or Senator, he chooses to seek.

Minnesota: The three-judge panel hearing the Senatorial re-count challenge ruled that only 400 ballots will be re-examined. This is a victory for Democrat Al Franken, as he officially leads by 225 votes. Should Republican Norm Coleman lose before this panel, he could ask the state’s Supreme Court to intervene. The loony-leftwing Franken is now likely to be certified the winner and thus seated in the Senate.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) has already launched a negative media campaign against GOP primary challenger Pat Toomey. The ads connect Toomey to the Wall Street collapse and criticize him for voting to “privatize” Social Security. This action is virtually unprecedented for an incumbent and shows that polls posting Toomey to a double-digit lead over the liberal Senator are in fact being confirmed by the Specter camp.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Arkansas: A new Public Policy Polling survey (3/20-22; 600 registered AR voters) shows some surprising vulnerability for so-called moderate Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). Against former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R), she leads only 46-37%. Paired with state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), her advantage is a similar: 48-37%. The Senator’s job approval number is a lackluster 45:40.

California: Confirming previous speculation, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) stated publicly that he will not challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) next year. Boxer now becomes a heavy favorite for a fourth term.

Connecticut: Research 2000, for the ultra-leftwing Daily Kos national blog, released the results of their Connecticut survey (3/23-25; 600 likely CT voters), and it shows ethically challenged Sen. Christopher Dodd in a bit better position than from last week’s Q-Poll (Quinnipiac University; Dodd trailing Simmons 43-42%). Here, Dodd leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) 45-40%, with a job approval rating of 47:40. The Senator has a much bigger lead when paired with another potential GOP candidate, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri: 51-30%. CNBC business news commentator Larry Kudlow ended speculation that he would run for the Senate via public announcement earlier in this week.

Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) may soon take his most definitive step toward running for the state’s open Senate race next year. Insiders claim that he will now form a Senatorial exploratory committee before the state legislature’s scheduled recess on May 1. Democrats will virtually concede the Senate seat to Crist in order to try and win what promises to be a competitive gubernatorial race.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Ohio: A new Quinnipiac University poll shows a wide open US Senate race in the Buckeye State. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leads former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman 41-33% in the large sample poll (1,299 respondents), conducted from March 10-15. Portman trails Jennifer Brunner (D), the very partisan Ohio Secretary of State, 39-34%. Meanwhile, the same survey shows Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leading former Rep. John Kasich (R-OH-12) by a sizable 20-point margin, 51-31%. The poll is particularly good news for Portman because his statewide name ID is only 32%. Of the people who can identify him, his favorability ratio is a strong 25:7.

New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) announced she will not run for the Senate next year, thus giving fellow ultra-liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2) a clear shot at the Democratic nomination. No decision as yet regarding whether former Sen. John Sununu (R) will get into the race. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is retiring. Should Sununu not run, former Gov. Steve Merrill (R), whose popularity ratings topped 65% when he left office, has not ruled out a Senatorial attempt.

New York: Democrats are about to tear themselves apart over appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Ten of her former New York congressional colleagues signed a letter to the state Democratic chairman demanding that the party stop promoting Gillibrand without mentioning the other potential candidates. Reps. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY-4), Steve Israel (D-NY-2), and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer (D) are all considering the race. Not surprisingly, McCarthy and Israel were among the ten members who signed the letter.

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