Rick Santorum’s rise was certainly enabled by his dogged determination.  But it was also enabled by the arrows that every other anti-Romney candidate took before him.  Rick certainly made his ascendancy a lot more difficult on himself by not removing the Specter stick in the eye of long-time conservatives.

For Rick’s campaign to gain steam as needed to not be this cycle’s Huckabee, Santorum must thrive in Jim DeMint’s back yard.  The 2004 Specter v Toomey race was an event of enormous impact on how DeMint became who he is today.  Thus far, Santorum’s response to the Specter objection is insufficient to excite the South Carolina conservative base.

There is a simple solution that will remove the stick in the eye and open the door to a much more energized conservative rally to the Santorum camp.  When the Specter objection is raised, simply respond:  “I understand that frustration.  I can assure you:  As President, I will not get involved in Republican primaries.”

Anything more panders.  Anything less fails to rally in DeMint’s back yard.

RedStaters,

It appears on paper that Rick Santorum holds at least as many (possibly more) positions that show respect for all three legs of the conservative stool (economic freedom, social issues, strong defense) compared to the other candidates.  Additionally, Rick does not appear to have some of the personal baggage that might plague some others.  Yet he continues to have difficulty gaining traction in this race.  Why? 

I have my own opinion about this and why I continue to pause about getting on board with supporting his campaign (which I will share in the comments area soon), but rather than biasing the discussion in a particular direction by placing my thoughts here, I want to keep the questionwide open and ask you to comment by addressing the following questions:

From your perspective, what are 2-3 positive things about Rick Santorum as a candidate?

What are 2-3 things that give you pause about Rick Santorum as a candidate? 

Why do you think he is not getting traction among the base thus far? 

Is there anything he could/should do to address this?

Thanks for your consideration of these questions.

Summary:  Yes, we Cain!

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the late September 2011 Primary Preference Poll – Pick 5.

Yes, this poll was conducted just prior to the announcements by Chris Christie and Sarah Palin that they would not be running.  But rather than harming these results, this polling methodology captures data deep enough to show to whom the respondents are interested in moving based on that news. 

LEGALESE:  This poll is not affiliated in any way with RedState management.  The following results are simply descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed the directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll.  This is not generalizable beyond the description of the valid participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating and letting me have a little fun!  Please look to participate in the next survey:  Date TBD.

METHODOLOGY:  RedStaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.  For the 5^th choice only, the respondent was permitted to (though encouraged not to) say that he/she would not vote in the primary given the remaining options.

[Please bear with the slight alignment problem in the tables below.  Evidently there is a bit of a problem pasting from Word...]

I am very happy to announce that participation grew tremendously compared to the activity in the May and June polls (May had 105 responses yielding a sample size of 102 while late June polling had a set of 147 responses yielding a sample size of 146).  I hope we continue to grow participation as the primary season heats up!

For a review of May’s results, see here.

For a review of June’s results, see here.

For this late September (September 25 through October 1, 2011) primary preference poll, I received 1,528 survey responses.  However, the data needed to be cleaned for erroneous submissions [multiple voting (QUIT ACTING LIKE A DEMOCRAT!) as well as naming the same candidate more than once].  For what it’s worth, this cleansing of voting errors had a greater impact on Sarah Palin’s first preference numbers than on any of the other candidates.  For the 1,424 who accurately participated in their preference submissions, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

But what happens when Rudy and Christie don’t run?

Given the relatively low numbers for both of these candidates, I will list out their second preferences quickly and move on…

Rudy’s 2 supporters’ second choices are Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich, respectively.

Christie’s 14 supporters move to Herman Cain (6), Rick Perry (4), Mitt Romney (3) and Rick Santorum (1).

None of these shifts have significant impact on the RedStaters’ results above, but…

What happens because Sarah isn’t running?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

* Of the 41 first-Sarah-then-Rudy voters, their 3^rd preferences are Herman Cain (12), Rick Santorum (11), Newt Gingrich (8), Jon Huntsman (2), Rick Perry (2), Mitt Romney (2), Michele Bachmann (1), Gary Johnson (1), Buddy Roemer (1), Chris Christie (1, whose 4^th choice is Newt).

**Of the 6 first-Sarah-then-Christie voters, their 3^rd preferences are Herman Cain (3), Newt Gingrich (2) and Rick Perry (1).

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie gives us the following Top Choice results:

Cutting the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities… 

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 1,424 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, or Top 3?

Main takeaway:  Sarah Palin’s Top Choice support among participating RedStaters was strong but additional support was not wide-spread.  Herman Cain currently has broad appeal across participating RedStaters.

Named in Top 2:

Named in Top 3:

Removing Christie, Giuliani and Palin from the results…

Named in Top 2 from among existing candidate pool:

Named in Top 3 from among existing candidate pool:

2^nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani supporters in this survey move when they are not in.

Who are the 2^nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who first chose Herman Cain (326 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 326 Herman Cain voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Added cut:  Now that Palin and Christie (and assuming Giuliani as well) are not in the running, of the 745 Herman Cain supporters, their resulting 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Ron Paul (148 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 148 Ron Paul voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Rick Perry (105 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 105 Rick Perry voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Mitt Romney (35 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 35 Mitt Romney voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Newt Gingrich (30 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 30 Newt Gingrich voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Michele Bachmann (16 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 16 Michele Bachmann voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Jon Huntsman (14 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Once Christie, Giuliani and Palin are removed, the 14 Jon Huntsman voters’ 2^nd choices are:

Those who first chose Rick Santorum (10 voters) also liked (2^nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Those who first chose Gary Johnson (9 voters) also liked (2^nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Those who first chose Buddy Roemer (2 voters) also liked (2^nd choice – once C, G &/or P removed, as needed):

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th choices must come into play?

Based on the Top Choice results (after removal of Christie, Palin and Giuliani), Roemer is the first candidate eliminated due to being the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getter – Huntsman – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter – Johnson – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter – Bachmann – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Based on the results of Round 5, the lowest vote-getter – Romney – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 6):

Based on the results of Round 6, the lowest vote-getter – Santorum – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 7):

Based on the results of Round 7, the lowest vote-getter – Perry – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 8):

Based on the results of Round 8, the lowest vote-getter – Paul – is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 9):  (FINAL RESULT!!)

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 1,424, thanks for your participation!  If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll.  Keep an eye out for it!

[NOTE FROM MANAGEMENT - Though it should go without saying, this poll is neither official, nor sanctioned by RedState management, nor any more scientific or accurate than any online poll posted in the diaries of any other open community website by a community member. As Ron Paul's results have amply demonstrated over the last four years, interactive/internet polls are rarely dispositive of actual status, sentiment, or electoral potential in any setting, let alone when posted in the community forum section of an open community site (the final line of this blog post should provide one of many major clues why that is).  Bearing that in mind, feel free to enjoy reading this diary and participating in its poll.   -JE]

RedStaters -

It is time once again to check the pulse of the RedState community.  It has been quite an eventful last couple of months in the development of the Republican presidential field.   Now’s the time to get an updated measure of RedStaters’ presidential primary preferences.  NOTE:  Make sure to look over the full list of candidates provided.  Beyond the current candidates, I have also included Christie, Giuliani and Palin to capture their potential impact on the race if they were to enter (as explained below). 

Please take one minute to go here and participate in the poll. 

–

How this is done – the Pick 5 framework:  From the list provided, simply cast your vote for your #1 preferred candidate.  Then, assume that your #1 preferred candidate is no longer available to choose:  who would be your candidate of choice among the rest?  Do this again for your 3rd, 4th and 5th choice.  You will have to pick your top 5 choices.  [Note: For the 5th choice, I do give you an option to say you would not vote in the primary, but please do not use this if at all possible.  Usually at that stage you would still vote - if nothing else, voting for someone as a vote against someone you perceive to be even worse!!  ;o) ]

I hope this will become a monthly (or so) snapshot of the leanings of RedState participants – giving an indicator of shifts and trends in the attractiveness of the various campaigns.

Please participate in the September edition of this poll and encourage others to participate as well.  It only takes a minute.  It would be great to get a large set of RedStater responses to analyze.

And…  DON’T BE A DEMOCRAT!  Participate once – but only once – for this September survey.

Working with the assumption that at some point very soon the Boehner plan will pass (the typical DC outcome of these things…), House Republicans would be most inept if they passed it today.  If I were the last few Republicans to give in to the arguments of the Speaker, I would hold out until around 5:00pm on Monday, August 1st. 

Don’t give Harry Reid (or the President) any time.  Passing the bill on Friday or Saturday or Sunday gives the Senate time to react and throw an even worse hot potato back into Boehner’s lap when time expires.   

Don’t enable bad actors.  Don’t give in until Monday evening.

The rise of Bachmann, the emergence of Perry, the presence of Palin, and the slippage of Cain & Pawlenty.

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the late June 2011 Primary Preference Poll – Pick 5.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll. This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating! Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely sometime in August.

METHODOLOGY:  RedStaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.  NOTE:  I did not foresee Thaddeus McCotter announcing his candidacy.  Thus, the potential for his support at this time was not registered.  Nothing against Rep. McCotter, but at this stage in the process, I do not see this omission as significantly impacting these results…

I am happy to announce that participation grew from the inaugural poll in May (105 responses yielding a sample size of 102) to the June (June 26–July 2) polling set of 147 responses (yielding a sample size of 146).  I hope we continue to grow RedStater participation as the primary season heats up!

For a review of May’s results, see here.

For the 146 who accurately participated in their preference submissions, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

But what happens if Sarah Palin doesn’t run?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah Palin gives us the following Top Choice results:

But what happens if Rick Perry doesn’t run (but Sarah Palin does)?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from his absence are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

But what happens if neither Sarah Palin nor Rick Perry run?

Using the 2^nd (and sometimes 3^rd) choice of those whose preferences were Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from their absences are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without both Sarah Palin and Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

Cutting the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities…

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 146 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, Top 4, or Top 5?

[Main takeaway:  Sarah Palin’s Top Choice support is strong but additional support is not wide-spread.  Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have the widest appeal among RedStaters at this time.  Herman Cain and Tim Pawlenty rise as Sarah Palin fades.]

Named in Top 2:

Named in Top 3:

Named in Top 4:

Named in Top 5:

2^nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah Palin and Rick Perry supporters in this survey would move if they were not in.

Who are the 2^nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (25 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (15 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Mitt Romney (12 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Herman Cain (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Ron Paul (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose John Bolton (4 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Rick Santorum (4 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Newt Gingrich (1 voter) also liked (2^nd choice):

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th choices must come into play?

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich is the first candidate eliminated due to being the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Huntsman and Johnson – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Santorum) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Bolton) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Based on the results of Round 5, the lowest vote-getters – Cain and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 6):

Based on the results of Round 6, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 7):

Based on the results of Round 7, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 8):

Based on the results of Round 8, the lowest vote-getter (Palin) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 9):  (FINAL RESULT!!)

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  I’ll get Thad McCotter in there next time.  That sneaky fellow!

I’ll try to keep an eye out for other potential candidates as well…

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 146, thanks for your participation!  If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime in August.  Keep an eye out for it!

RedStaters -

It has been quite an eventful month in the development of the Republican presidential field.   Now’s the time to get an updated measure of RedStaters’ presidential primary preferences.  Please take one minute to go here and participate in the poll.

–

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the inaugural Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll.  This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating!  Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely mid-late June.

Redstaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their first, second, third and fourth picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.

Of 105 responses received during the week of May 22-28, 2011, the vast majority (102) followed the directions for inclusion in the poll results.  (For the 3, next time please do not enter the same name for two different placements).  For the n=102, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

But what happens if Sarah doesn’t run?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

[For these Redstaters, Sarah Palin’s entry would take out almost all of the oxygen in the room for Bachmann, Bolton and Santorum – and lessen the first choice appeal of Cain.]

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah gives us the following Top Choice results:

Let’s cut the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities… 

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 102 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, or Top 4?

Named in Top 2:

Named in Top 3:

Named in Top 4:

2^nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah supporters in this survey would move if she was not in.

Who are the 2^nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Herman Cain (29 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (24 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Mitt Romney (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Ron Paul (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose John Bolton (1 voter) also liked (2^nd choice):

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th choices must come into play? 

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich and Santorum are automatically eliminated due to receiving no Top Choice votes.  Round 2 is conducted based on also eliminating Bolton as the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Bachmann, Huntsman, Johnson and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  Who to include?  Who to exclude?  Due to this concern, I did have an extra question regarding who should have been included on the survey list.  Results:

I will take this feedback (combined with upcoming news reports and prospective candidate announcements) into account in future survey activity.

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 102, thanks for your participation!

If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime during the week of June 19^th.   Keep an eye out for it!

Who do you prefer in the Republican Presidential race?  Who else would you be most willing to support?

Please take a moment to participate in a simple but effectively-designed presidential primary poll (through SurveyMonkey) that will give a glimpse into understanding the dynamics of support for various candidates among active RedStaters at this time.  Not only will this poll give an indication of first preferences among the responders, it will also give an indication of who is waiting in the wings if a candidate falters or withdraws.

How this is done – the Pick 4 framework:  From the list provided, simply cast your vote for your #1 preferred candidate.  Then, assume that your #1 preferred candidate is no longer available to choose:  who would be your candidate of choice among the rest?  Do this again for your 3rd and 4th choice.  You will have to pick your top 4 choices.  [Note: For the 4th choice, I do give you an option to say you would not vote in the primary, but please do not use this if at all possible.  Usually at that stage you would still vote - if nothing else, voting for someone as a vote against someone you perceive to be even worse!!]

The deadline for participation is Saturday night, May 28th. It only takes a minute to participate.

My plan is for this to become a monthly snapshot of the leanings of RedState participants – giving an indicator of shifts and trends in the attractiveness of the various campaigns.

Please participate in this quick poll of your top choices and encourage others to participate as well.  It would be great to get a large set of responses to analyze.   Thanks for your consideration!