Who do you prefer in the Republican Presidential race?  Who else would you be most willing to support?

Please take a moment to participate in a simple but effectively-designed presidential primary poll (through SurveyMonkey) that will give a glimpse into understanding the dynamics of support for various candidates among active RedStaters at this time.  Not only will this poll give an indication of first preferences among the responders, it will also give an indication of who is waiting in the wings if a candidate falters or withdraws.

How this is done – the Pick 4 framework:  From the list provided, simply cast your vote for your #1 preferred candidate.  Then, assume that your #1 preferred candidate is no longer available to choose:  who would be your candidate of choice among the rest?  Do this again for your 3rd and 4th choice.  You will have to pick your top 4 choices.  [Note: For the 4th choice, I do give you an option to say you would not vote in the primary, but please do not use this if at all possible.  Usually at that stage you would still vote - if nothing else, voting for someone as a vote against someone you perceive to be even worse!!]

The deadline for participation is Saturday night, May 28th. It only takes a minute to participate.

My plan is for this to become a monthly snapshot of the leanings of RedState participants – giving an indicator of shifts and trends in the attractiveness of the various campaigns.

Please participate in this quick poll of your top choices and encourage others to participate as well.  It would be great to get a large set of responses to analyze.   Thanks for your consideration!

RedStaters -

Gingrich is in.  Huckabee is out.  Cain is in.  Daniels is out.  Pawlenty is in.  Palin is ???

As the Republican presidential field is taking shape, the existence of so many personalities vying for your support creates an interesting dynamic that would be great to explore.

Please take a moment to participate in a simple but effectively-designed presidential primary poll (through SurveyMonkey) that will give a glimpse into understanding the dynamics of support for various candidates among active RedStaters at this time.  Not only will this poll give an indication of first preferences among the responders, it will also give an indication of who is waiting in the wings if a candidate falters or withdraws.  (For instance, what impact would Sarah Palin’s entry into the race have – and who will be most affected?  OR Which candidates are most correlated in their supporters?)

How this is done – the Pick 4 framework:  From the list provided, simply cast your vote for your #1 preferred candidate.  Then, assume that your #1 preferred candidate is no longer available to choose:  who would be your candidate of choice among the rest?  Do this again for your 3rd and 4th choice.  You will have to pick your top 4 choices.  [Note: For the 4th choice, I do give you an option to say you would not vote in the primary, but please do not use this if at all possible.  Usually at that stage you would still vote - if nothing else, voting for someone as a vote against someone you perceive to be even worse!!  ;o) ]

I hope this will become a monthly snapshot of the leanings of RedState participants – giving an indicator of shifts and trends in the attractiveness of the various campaigns.

Please participate in this inaugural poll and encourage others to participate as well.  It only takes a minute.  It would be great to get a large set of responses to analyze.

The deadline for participation is Saturday night, May 28th.  Thanks for your consideration!

Just a quick note to wish each and every one of you a very merry Christmas and to invite you to “take just a minute” to hear an upbeat get-in-the-mood-for-Christmas tune.  It is available to hear at amaze.fm (a site previously promoted by Hugh Hewitt on his radio show).

Enjoy!

Jon Bingham

In Louisville, KY, the KY-3 district has long been assumed by the NRCC and other pundits to be safe for John Yarmuth (D).  No NRCC money has been invested here to support Todd Lally.  However, this week’s polling by the Louisville (or as I like to say – Liberal) Courier Journal & WHAS11 (through SurveyUSA) shows the race within the margin of error at 50-46.  This is a prime additional pickup opportunity for many reasons (see here for background and here for an effective ad to support). 

Make the wave even bigger.  I put in another $33 for the 3rd today.  Will you join me?

Moe – interview???

With so many races vying for attention, it is nice to see KY-3 get noticed by National Review (in the front page’s video line-up) for a clever ad exposing 4-year incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth’s past positions and statements – “Golden Gaffes” per NR.

For background on KY-3 and why it is a great (and much needed) opportunity, see this.

With the quarterly fundraising deadline fast approaching, please join me in donating “33 for the 3rd” to give this ad some airtime in the final weeks of the campaign.

Moe, can you set up an interview?

Fellow Red-Staters:

To institute fiscal sanity in the nation’s capitol, the first order of business in 2010 must be to secure the House in overwhelming fashion.  With that in mind, it is time for me to call your attention to Louisville, KY and the removal of Congressman John Yarmuth.  Kentucky’s 3^rd District has all the necessary ingredients to be a very consequential pick-up for Republicans in 2010. 

Brief history:  While a reputed pro-life, blue-dog Democrat Ron Mazolli dominated this district for 24 years, more recently, Republican Anne Northup served the district for 10 years until narrowly losing in the 2006 election to Yarmuth.  The general shift in electoral sentiment at that time swept her out with so many others.  Obama-mania made Yarmuth’s re-election bid in 2008 (against Northup once again) an easy contest.  However, Mazolli’s conservative claims and Northup’s prior successes demonstrate that KY-3 has conservative tendencies and is a great pick-up opportunity in this electoral environment. 

2010:  What a difference a year (2009) makes.  The hard-left agenda of Obama, Reid and Pelosi has exposed the full extent of Yarmuth’s own radical ideology.  Unlike some of his Democrat colleagues who have tried to hide the level of their liberalism, Yarmuth has wholly embraced every leftist cause and thereby sought to rise quickly toward House leadership.  He views himself as a rising star – and many in DC may agree.  But he has “left” Louisville behind.  Given his consistently extreme-liberal positions, he has nowhere “left” to go.  Simply put, repealing and replacing John Yarmuth in 2010 is very significant to the course of our future as it will be eliminating an aspiring future head of the leftist movement.

The great news:  Todd Lally, the Republican nominee in 2010, is an excellent challenger for this race.  Todd, a life-long Louisvillian with an extensive and impressive military background, is the high quality, next generation Republican we need to successfully contrast with Yarmuth.  With Todd, this race is not simply an attempt to oust a bad actor with just anyone.  Lally’s positions of 1) government restraint to enable a return of private sector growth, 2) a strong national defense and border security, and 3) a respect for life and related issues present a well-rounded candidate worthy of RedState support.  From the healthcare takeover to reckless spending to impending tax increases to illegal immigration to cap-n-trade to card check, the contrast will be very clear.

In the May primary, Todd demonstrated impressive attractiveness as a candidate by garnering over 50% of the primary vote in a 4 candidate race.  [One thing I particularly liked about this result…  This decisive win occurred even though the NRCC and the Liberal Courier-Journal (as I like to call it) had tapped another Republican candidate in the race as their preferred choice.]  All primary candidates (to their credit) have united to strongly support Lally in the general.  Recent polls show Todd well within striking distance even as the Liberal Courier-Journal tries to ignore his candidacy to hamper his growth in name recognition and popularity. 

33 for the 3rd:  Continuing to raise Todd’s name ID and remind voters of Yarmuth’s actual record will remove this political wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing from Washington.  Todd needs to amass the sufficient base of funds to ensure his message can penetrate in the district.  Good news:  In the most recent quarter, Todd Lally out-raised Congressman Yarmuth.  Locally, the momentum and interest is on his side.  However, now is the time for RedStaters to step up and support him in this significant campaign.  At this time, join me in donating “33 for the 3^rd.”  (Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?) 

Parting thought:  In 2006, one of the early races that indicated it would be a long and bad night for Republicans was KY-3 – Yarmuth beating Northup.  In 2010, let’s welcome back fiscal sanity with an early call for Todd Lally – leading to a great night for the country. 

33 for the 3^rd. 

Hey, Moe – contact him and set up an interview??

Cross-posted at www.ruminationsaspirations.blogspot.com

The Indiana Republican primary contest presents a wide range of personalities for consideration.  In order of initial name ID, the candidates are:  Dan Coats, John Hostettler, Marlin Stutzman, Richard Behney and Don Bates, Jr. 
 
Erick Erickson has whole-heartedly endorsed Marlin Stutzman.  I must agree. 
 
But why is choosing Stutzman so important at this time?  Simply put, consider how unusual 2010’s political climate is.  The highest initial name ID is not essential to success in November.  We cannot afford to squander the great opportunity we have to advance the next generation of principled, conservative leadership. 
 
But why not Dan Coats?  Dan Coats is last century’s Senator.  The Republican Establishment mentality thinks supporting Coats is a way of playing it safe in this race. This reveals the perpetual lack of vision that plagues those who are much more Republican than they are conservative.  To my fellow conservatives who remain tempted to “play it safe,” please consider:  If you can’t support the best choice for conservatism’s long-run future in 2010, when would you ever?  You will never have the courage to question the Establishment mentality that has brought the party to its current low.  Choosing Dan Coats gives us a very short term fix and aborts the long-term potential of the next generation:  Marlin Stutzman. 
 
But why not John Hostettler?  To those favoring Hostettler, I would ask you to support Marlin in 2010 for a number of reasons.  First, such a split will likely give us Coats.  Second, the potential of a Hostettler-Ellsworth matchup is not the best narrative for this fall.  Last, please consider:  We need Hostettler to challenge and defeat Lugar in 2012.  Hostettler is the one candidate with enough spine and legislative background to contrast against Lugar’s record effectively in such a challenge.  Marlin is better suited to take down Ellsworth.  Hostettler is better suited to retire Lugar.  Let’s work together wisely to get the two best possible Senators in 2010 and 2012.
 
But why not Behney or Bates?  There is a time when one should recognize that a candidate has not gotten the traction needed to truly be competitive.  I appreciate both candidates’ willingness to step forward with the desire to serve the state and the country, but now is not the time for them in this capacity.  Continued support of Behney and Bates simply splits the vote to make it easier for Coats to prevail.  Please move toward Stutzman who better understands and appreciates the values and principles that drive you.  [Coats better understands and appreciates Washington’s values and principles.]
 
No, Marlin Stutzman is not the most dynamic personality in politics.  He is simply solid and principled with an unassuming manner.  He knows who he is and where he came from.  If given the opportunity this fall, Hoosiers will agree with his positions and warm to his demeanor to proudly elect him to be the next Senator from Indiana.
 
This is a teachable moment for the grassroots to correct the Republican Establishment.  Let’s help them learn not to short-change our conservative future with a falsely-assumed safe choice.
 
Go Marlin!

Cross-posted at http://ruminationsaspirations.blogspot.com/

Dear Democrat Congressman:

You cannot hide by voting on Sunday and you cannot fool the American people about the vote.  We fully recognize the game being played - trying to find a way to pass this takeover by one vote.  Judging your fitness for office will not be based on whether or not you voted for the bill, it will be based on whether or not this bill passes.  If it passes, you are responsible for enabling and ensuring its passage.  Such a demonstration of Democrat Party arrogance and ugliness will make 1994 trivial by comparison.  Vote no – and convince your colleagues to vote no or ALL of you will be held to account in November.

Cross-posted at http://ruminationsaspirations.blogspot.com/

The final message to wavering House Democrats should be:

We understand the game.  We will not be fooled.  You are trying to have it both ways – trying to give as many Democrats as possible cover by passing this healthcare takeover plan by a one vote margin.  You, yourself, are likely angling to be able to vote ”no” while being okay with its ultimate passage. 

“But I voted against it!” won’t protect you.  If this bill passes, you own it. 

Not only do you have to vote “no,” you must convince your fellow Democrats to defeat this bill.  Anything short of that and every one of you will own the consequences in November.

At this point in time, November 2010 is looking very strong for Republican gains in both the House and the Senate.  Takeover of the House is likely.  Amazingly, takeover of the Senate now appears at least remotely possible.  However, as conservatives, not every Republican gain would be a gain for the conservative cause.  Rather, a 2010 Republican takeover of the Senate could destroy the emergence of conservative governance we so desperately need to occur in 2012.  We need patience, wisdom and possibly even restraint.

Simply stated, Mitch McConnell (or any other R leader) would be effective on most issues as the minority leader of 48 Senators (filibuster opportunities against poor D leadership), but horrible as the majority leader of 51 because that majority includes Collins, Snowe, Graham, McCain, Lugar, and the like).  Given the likelihood of a Lieberman (or other) defection, either 50 or 51 elected Republicans would absolutely be the worst possible outcome for 2011-2012. 

Let’s be careful what we wish for and work toward.  Each 2010 race needs to be purposefully developed as either a conservative Republican gain or no Republican gain.  In the euphoria of all of the possible gains in 2010, some gains would do great harm.  The Supreme Court, our national security and our future economic condition remind us that we need a 1980 in 2012 much more than we need a 1994 in 2010.  

Best case scenario:  +32 in House and +7or8 in Senate  (Obama and the thoroughly weakened, smallest of Dem majorities are primed for 2012 removal.)

Workable scenario:  At least 50 House seats (significant House takeover) and +7or8 in Senate (the frustrations with the Senate may still be laid at the feet of the Democrats and Obama)

Likely long-run conservative failure due to short-run Republican gains:  +40 or more (House takeover) and +9or10 (Senate takeover)

—–

Currently:  41 Republicans

Hold these R incumbent seats (but replace a couple R incumbents with conservatives in the primaries?):  AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IA, LA, NC, OK, SC, SD, UT (best replacement opportunity here!) 

Hold these open R seats – choosing the closest thing to the Rubio in each:  FL, KS, KY, MO, NH, OH

New Republican seats that could come, in order of likelihood (choose  :

42) ND (who is the Rubio here?)

43) DE (looks like this pickup is a given)

44) IN (Go Marlin Stutzman!)

45) AR (who is the Rubio here?)

46) PA (Toomey takes down Specter)

47) NV (who is the Rubio here?)

48) CO (who is the Rubio here?)

——

49) CA (Chuck Devore is worthy of support for #49.  Otherwise, no.)

—–

50) IL – Is a 51 seat majority with Mark Kirk and Joe Lieberman in the mix really a benefit to the conservative cause?  That’s a movement killer.

But what happens if we were to develop a way to run the table by replacing CT, NY, MD, WA and WI as well?  Who knows?  I doubt that will develop, but I did not anticipate saying bye to Bayh…  Stay tuned…

Cross-posted at www.ruminationsaspirations.blogspot.com