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Phoned-in Palin attack FAIL

In which Politico urinates on our legs and tells us it's raining.

Many years ago, when I was but a teenaged college student, my political science professor taught me a valuable lesson. He returned a paper I had written with a grade of 37 on it and the following scribbled in the margin in angry red ink:

Your paper is all supposition. Where is your supporting evidence?

I learned from the experience. You can’t just phone it in and expect to be taken seriously.

In today’s Politico, another college professor, Jeremy D. Mayer, phones one in. We are told in italics at the bottom of his article that he’s an associate professor and director of the master’s program in public policy at George Mason University.

Early on in his piece, Prof. Mayer claims that Gov. Sarah Palin is unelectable as a presidential candidate. He presents no supporting evidence for that claim. No poll numbers, nothing.

He then says that Palin as a presidential candidate would be like Rev. Jesse Jackson was to the Democrats in the 1980s. The professor does list a number of reasons why Jackson was unelectable and concludes that no other candidate could criticize Jackson without the risk of losing the support of black voters. He says criticism of Palin would similarly cost her opponents the evangelical vote.

But Mayer follows that with another unsupported claim:

Her inability to appear even minimally competent made her one of the rare vice presidential nominees to damage the ticket in November.

What credible evidence does he offer for this? None. Perter Kirsanow wrote at National Review’s The Corner that Palin actually helped the ticket:

Prior to the selection of Palin, McCain’s campaign wasn’t exactly lighting up the Republican base. The names Romney and Pawlenty were generating mostly yawns. Palin’s selection electrified the base like no other candidate on a GOP ticket since Reagan. It caused many wary and dispirited conservatives to reconcile with the top of the ticket. Even though the media onslaught against her may have had an effect on the ticket’s final numbers, I’m not sure there’s any evidence that those numbers would’ve been higher had someone else been the VP nominee. My guess is the reverse is true.

But a guess is not good enough. Let’s look at some numbers:

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republican voters say Alaska Governor Sarah Palin helped John McCain’s bid for the presidency, even as news reports surface that some McCain staffers think she was a liability.

Only 20% of GOP voters say Palin hurt the party’s ticket, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Six percent (6%) say she had no impact, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable. Only eight percent (8%) have an unfavorable view of her, including three percent (3%) Very Unfavorable.

When asked to choose among some of the GOP’s top names for their choice for the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year — Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.

Three other sitting governors – Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Charlie Crist of Florida and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota – all pull low single-digit support.

These findings echo a survey earlier this week which found that Republicans were happier with their vice presidential candidate than with their presidential nominee. Seventy-one percent (71%) said McCain made the right choice by picking Palin as his running mate, while only 65% said the party picked the right nominee for president.

But these are Republicans. What about swing voters? Mayer says:

Palin’s vapidity, inexperience and hard-right social views drove many moderates and conservatives into neutrality or the Obama camp.

He furnishes no evidence to support the claim, of course. Are you seeing the pattern here?

Mayer’s unsupported claim is shot down by statistics:

Of the 60 percent of voters who told exit pollsters Sarah Palin was an “important factor” in their decision, 56 percent voted for Sen. McCain. Those who said she was not an important factor voted for Sen. Obama by a 64 to 33 percent margin.

People who thought that Palin was a factor did make up a quarter of Obama’s vote. But that doesn’t mean that opposition to Palin “drove” those voters away from McCain. There could have been any number of other factors at play. It’s not exactly the mass exodus of voters claimed by Mayer and other political hit men who are gunning for the governor.

Now you would think that an associate professor and director of the master’s program in public policy at George Mason University could at least present a more compelling case against Sarah Palin than what he offers in this article. But, like most attacks on the governor, this one was phoned in, and it’s just another Politico hit piece.

Which begs the question, Where is Professor Mayer coming from? Some insight may be found by examining his political financial contributions. For some reason, Politico left Mayer’s 2004 donation to John Kerry out of their all-too-brief bio information in the italicized line at the end of the article. I wonder why? Perhaps the good professor’s credibility as an unbiased political expert would be somewhat diminished if the reader suspected he might be shilling for the Democrat Party. Gee, do ya think?

In another Politico article Mayer argued for a McCain-Lieberman “fusion” ticket. The professor needs better graduate research assistants. As J.A. Culvahouse explained, there were legal roadblocks to Lieberman’s viability as a potential McCain running mate:

“Five states have sore loser statutes,” he said, “[making] it very difficult for someone who’s not a member of the Republican Party to become the vice presidential nominee if they only switch parties to become a Republican shortly before the convention.”

Mayer is one of those Democrat donors who argue that liberalism is what the Republican Party needs to solve all of its problems. Yet none of them can tell us how more liberalism will bring considerable numbers of disaffected Reagan Democrats and social conservatives who were angry with McCain back into the Republican Party.

The Democrats and Vichy Republicans are going to have to do better than this to take out Sarah Palin. I’ll give it a grade of 37 out of a possible 100:

FAIL

Update: Manly also calls BS on the professor.

- JP

COMMENTS

  • Aaron Gardner
    • Mike gamecock DeVine

      told me that knowing the arguments were fine but that you hade to out up actual witnesses and evidence to get to the jury!

    • Mike gamecock DeVine

      told me that knowing the arguments were fine but that you hade to out up actual witnesses and evidence to get to the jury!

  • JadedByPolitics

    I don’t NEED to be told by the likes of Politico who is or is NOT acceptable to run for the Republican Party….Politico is just a bunch of DC insider hacks!

  • 6eorge Jetson

    and McCain failed utterly thereafter to articulate Democrats culpability in it.

    In fact, his “I’m not George W Bush” campaign slogan actually exacerbated it.

    Do I have granular polling data to support this? No. Did McCain’s likelihood of winning as measured by the trading price of profit-motivated speculators on the intrade exchange correlate very well with the downward plunge triggered by this Sept 15 event? You betcha!

    • Alberta

      Rasmussen (spelling) I think had a poll that showed the week before the sky fell that Mac was winning, im pretty sure. Id look for it but too lazy.

      Our side did have the momentum at least up to that point, and the trend was going to take Mac to a winners position, but again, sky fell and Mac didnt point out that Frannie was a Dem Fiefdom.

  • marshmom

    Isn’t it ironic how so-called “professors” and “ivy league educated” people can skate by on their titles instead of their substance?? Ahem…..Obama, Krugman, this guy and MANY others.

    It takes a real pseudo-intellectual to come up with and to be persuaded by this crapola (I know, I’m using very technical language).

    Thanks for the analysis………..

  • Aaron Gardner
  • olsmithie

    The more they hate her, the more convinced I am that she is worth watching!

    As for PHDs knowing anything, some do, some don’t. Some have common sense, some can just recite textbooks.

    Most that I know never held a real job, (like the ‘O”) or couldn’t cut it and ran back to academia to hide out.
    The most refreshing professors were retired from the real world after many years and went back to education.
    If you fit none of my stereotypes, let me apologize now, but titles don’t mean squat to me until I know if there is substance, a test Mayer fails miserably.

    Good job, Josh

    Regards

    • http://www.braindeadrepublican.com Michael DeWeese

      Palin’s popularity draws parallels to Dear Leader ZerO after the 2004 elections. Although she seems lacking in national office merits, so did a certain community organizer. They see this and want to nip the bud before it blooms completely as their Dear Leader ZerO did. A lot of folks here look at Sarah Palin somewhat askance because of her lack of credentials. But her popularity can not be denied, we just have a healthy skepticism of idolizing an unproven political figure. Perhaps during the next 2-3 years, if she survives the attacks on her, she will have earned respect as a political heavy weight and kept her popularity. Baptism by fire so to speak. The attacks by the left may in fact strengthen her. When Achance begins to chant ‘Palin, Palin’, we will know.

      • olsmithie

        The “proven” figures mostly take me mentally back to our last unpleasant experience.
        Not saying all were like Mac, but I’m excited about the possibility of fresh blood with excitement and character (and speaking skills) running on the 2012 ticket.
        Palin, Jindal, or who knows!

        Thomas Sowell points out in a NRO article that we may not be able to hold out for the perfect candidate or we risk another 4 years of Obama, a thought that I am sure is true, but troubling.

        I will have my ear to the ground listening for Achance!

        Regards

        • azaeroprof

          I really don’t think we’ll EVER see Achance chanting “Pailn! Palin! Palin!”. I’d settle for, say, 3 Palin posts in a row without some negative comment from Art. I’m even skeptical about that, but hey, with God all things are possible, right?

          • olsmithie
    • JoeG

      N/T

  • Finrod

    [ remainder of dialogue from _Clerks_ omitted to comply with posting rules ]

    • Aaron Gardner
  • bobojake

    If Palin would of been turned loose on obama in Michigan we wouldn’t be worrying about obama destroying the United States.
    We would still be battling the Washington Politicans but at least palin would be on the Taxpayers side.
    Right now the middle class hardworking taxpaye have nobody fighting for them in Washington

    Stop the mad man obama now.

  • Rod_Patrick

    I’m lazy.

    Besides, I don’t want Josh commenting on my diary and giving me a rating of 37 out of 100.

    And, I don’t visit Politico anymore.

    • Josh Painter

      I seriously doubt that you could write more poorly than Prof. Mayer, and I know you can support your arguments much better than he.

      You’ll get no 37s from me.

      - JP

      • Rod_Patrick

        Thanks, Josh.

        Write more diaries please. Don’t mind my foolish comments. He he he!

  • rascalofearth

    clearly both newt and palin believe they will be the gop presidential nominee in 2012. and although there are many more who will be in the fight the htese 2 are best positioned from a money and media perspective to be the early leading contenders. call it a brawl for the heart or head of the gop. newt, clearly running based upon his dissing of the gov, disagreeing with the host on hannity’s show, and becoming ctaholic in an obvious effort to win PA is already running full time for the job…..building a base organization and developing the intellectual arguments he believes will propel him into the wh. gov palin is going for the heart of the gop…making highly emotional appeals to the base. eventually each will annoint a specific attack dog to go after the other while leaving the candidate blood free. hers will be religiously based and there is much to go after newt from that pov. his, most definitely a woman, will be intellectually based…arguing she simply, as most Americans believe based upon listening to interviews with the gov herself, lacks the brain power for the oval office. in the end i think neither will prevail. that while mitt and huckster may be attractive….i believe the gop nominee is not yet even in the shadow of the growing campaigns.

    • Rod_Patrick
    • JustLeaveMeAlone

      Your post could have been written by the Geo. Mason prof.

      “Clearly both next [sic] and palin [sic] believe they will be the gop presidential nominee…”

      Clearly? Can you please give some factual, logical basis for your assertion? Grammar aside, I believe you are saying that Newt Gingrich believes he and Sarah Palin believes she will be the 2012 GOP nominee.

      I just don’t see evidence of that. Do they hope for it? Perhaps. Newt has been more vocal as to his aspirations, but neither appears to be smug about their prospects.

      As to the “money and media perspective”, again, facts please — not merely anecdotal evidence. Sure, Newt appears to be using Hannity’s show as his personal PR machine (and if I hear Sean say “Mr Speaker…” one more time, I’m going to change the channel), but Sarah Palin has been in Alaska doing her job. What “highly emotional appeals” has she made? Because I missed them.

      Also, please cite proof of “as most Americans believe…” that Sarah Palin isn’t smart enough to be president (not that such a believe would mean anything — think Ronald Reagan).

      I’m not in the tank for either of them, or for anyone else. It’s way too early. But please, if you are going to opin, opin. Don’t state things as facts that simply are not.

  • rascalcat

    No, she does not have a problem with most Republicans, but she has a huge problem with Independents. Both parties and especially the GOP need the majority of Independents in order to wil elections. Therefore, she is unelectible, as is.

    • Aaron Gardner

      you shouldn’t post in ignorance…..you especially shouldn’t double post in ignorance.

    • gekster

      What do you have to back your statement up?

  • rascalcat

    No, she does not have a problem with most Republicans, but she has a huge problem with Independents. Both parties and especially the GOP need the majority of Independents in order to wil elections. Therefore, she is unelectible, as is.

    • Aaron Gardner

      I think you may want to try again.

      • Aaron Gardner

        Rascalofearth was blammed back in october of last year…..now the same account is posting on this thread and a new rascal account is posting as well….that is quite the coincidence….no?

        • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
          • Aaron Gardner

            either way…Rascalcat still didn’t read the article or else he/she would have seen that less than half of voters who said Palin was an important factor went for Obama…not really a mass exodus as Josh points out.

        • Streiff

          but it looks like Huffington Post gave him parole or something.

          • JustLeaveMeAlone

            along with the occasional punctuation. Still a bit light on facts, though.

          • Aaron Gardner

            it always knows….;^)

    • Josh Painter

      In an Opinion Dynamics poll taken in January, Palin’s unfavorables among independents had dropped (improved) by six points since the election. Her overall favorable/unfavoravle rating among independents was 46/47 just before the election. It was 46/41 in January. If she can build on this improvement, she will be in great shape with independents.

      Read ‘em and weep:

      http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/011509_poll.pdf

      - JP

  • crux

    Governor Palin struck a chord that resounded with conservatives who had been dying of thirst in the political landscape. Much to the dismay of RINOS and milquetoast republicans, she is STILL a conservative star. No matter how often her political enemies try to diminish her, she is still a STRONG force to be reckoned with. She is a straight shooter, courageous to a fault, and unafraid to articulate conservative principles.

    Beltway insiders should accept this, and quit trying to foist another dem-lite or “progressive” republican on us. Or we’ll be in that proverbial desert for a very, very long time.

  • smitch61

    I am telling you, I am old enough to remember ALL of Carter. I can tell you the media hated Reagan, Palin is a threat and she can beat Obama if she chooses to run.

    • JustLeaveMeAlone

      God forgive me, I actually voted for Carter in 1976. I was young and stupid, and I paid a very large price for my ignorance.

      My mom used to talk about Gov Reagan, and I’d roll my eyes. I remember how much the media hated him, how much they portrayed him as an old man who wasn’t all that smart. He was simple, he was demagogue, he was a lightweight who didn’t grasp details. That was the Conventional Wisdom on Ronald Reagan, not only before he was elected, but quite a while after.

      He took office in 1981, and the stock market promptly went down 25%. It wasn’t until August 1982 that his “voodoo economics” (i.e., supply side) took hold and the Bull Market of the 1980s began.

      While RR may not have been able to quote statistics all day long or policy-wonk everything to death, what he could do was INSPIRE. He could set a course, a direction, and find the people to handle the details. That’s what a Leader and a Chief Executive does.

      • bobojake

        and this 4 th of July lets see if we can have a 50,000,000,000 million T-Party

      • scarlos

        In the same way Kennedy and FDR were leaders. They were confident in themselves and the American People, and knew that a little optimism goes a long way.

        Though I agree with smitch61. Reagan faced a mountain of media attacks for being a “right-wing extremist” and still pulled off two of the most lop-sided victories in modern US history.

        And given the mass erosion of political support for Obama’s policies, (in 3 months his approval index dropped 28 points) we could possibly see a similar blow-out of in 2012 as we did in 1980.

        • JoeG

          Richard Nixon’s re-election was the most lopsided in popular vote and the second most lopsided EV tally.

          Reagan beat him in 1984 for the EV tally. 1980 wasn’t even close to the EV margin of 1972.

          • scarlos

            Reagan did 8 points better in 1984 than in 1980, FDR did 3 points better, etc.

            Nixon had much of the same trend, and a considerable advantage of running against a person who was arguably had the worst campaign of any candidate in the 20th century.

            I greatly appreciate any and all “keeping me honest” posts–I make plenty of mistakes when if comes to remembering things off the top of my head

  • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

    I’ll probably get flamed for this response, but I think you go too far in your complaints about the blog. I read it myself, and don’t really see a problem with it. The guy talkes about perceptions, and anyone that followed even a little of the media’s coverage of Palin knows there were successful in painting her very much the way Mayer describes her.

    The fact is, much of the populace is still lazy and will get the majority of their information from the mainstream media. I don’t really agree with his conclusions because I think he goes too far to compare her to Jesse Jackson, but there are some similarities there. Sure, he didn’t provide links, but his article wasn’t a research paper either, was it? It was an opinion piece based on generally accepted perceptions created by the mainstream media during the campaign.

    • Finrod

      .

      • gekster

        Back in 68 and 72 the people were not fooled by the radicals and thier canidates and voted for some type of sanity.

        And as with Bush, not to many people claimed to have voted for him, but did.

      • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

        Like it or not, some of the perceptions stated in the article or valid. Whether they’re accurate or not doesn’t matter, they’ve successfully painted the picture that way for some. Whether it will be enough I can’t say. I did say the author went too far imo, but so did this blog’s response.

    • Josh Painter

      - JP

      • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

        It’s called “poisoning the well”.

      • Achance

        out of all of us who sometimes write opinion and have given money to Republicans. I agree with you about the thin reasoning he applies, but the fact that he wrote a check doesn’t make him a hack anymore than writing one to a Republican might make one of us a hack.

        • Josh Painter

          No evidence, just bashing. No disclaimer by Politico.

          - JP

  • Josh Painter

    You have to back up your opinions with some evidence. Your op-ed doesn?t have to read like a research paper, but you have to present evidence to win your case. Your arguments have to be based on something to be compelling.

    It’s not like my journalism degree is all I have going for me. I worked in real world journalism for 20 years, so I do know a thing or two about it. But that was years ago, back before the Fourth Estate became a fitth column for the political Left.

    - JP

    • Swamp_Yankee

      … We’ve let the MSM rule our roost too long. They won’t quit until they get some passive mush or some lame duck to lead our party.

    • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

      I don’t believe the perceptions mentioned needed to be documented. They’re basic assumptions for a good number of people on both sides of the aisle. The fact is, the left was successful in making Palin look uneducated, even though I think it’s not accurate. There are also some moderate independents that are concerned about her religious connections. I had one I know even say she was nothing more than another Pat Robertson, and that’s the only similarity I agreed with between Palin & Jackson.

      • Aaron Gardner

        The polls that are out there don’t support the idea that the left was successful in affecting independents…except in a positive way…her favorable/unfavorable ratings have gotten better not worse with independents.

        The left is selling the perception that they beat her when the reality is McCain beat himself and dragged her down with him.

        • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

          Palin on the ticket was clearly a net positive. It wasn’t even close. The effect on independents was there though, and won’t be fully known until(if) she runs at the top of the ticket.

          It’s also true that McCain lost it himself in the end. Palin had nothing to do with that (and was prevented even from helping).

          As I’ve said before, Palin’s primary appeal was her unwavering desire to help those that cannot help themselves, rather than the typical politician who wants to help those that will not help themselves. It was truly a breath of fresh air.

          It won’t be enough though to run at the top of the ticket. Time will tell whether or not she can establish a broad base of support and overcome the negatives with which the MSM successfully branded her. And complaining about that won’t help. She, or someone in her camp is going to have to figure out how to overcome it.

          • Aaron Gardner

            I still disagree on whether or not the MSM was successful in branding her because the poll Josh referenced in a comment above shows that She has already gained back most of the favorability that she has lost…and it is trending back to her higher ratings.

            As you say though we won’t really know the impact of the MSM branding until we see some solid polls in 2011…if she indeed runs.

          • http://nighttwister.blogivists.com NightTwister

            You admit Palin lost favorability. That means the MSM was successful in reducing it. She’s mostly out of the spotlight now, so it makes sense that it would go back up, and I’m glad for that.

            As you say, we’ll see in a couple of years how it plays out. Should be an interesting primary season, and I for one hope it doesn’t go for two years again, but I have no hope that that will be the case.

          • Aaron Gardner

            As far as your point….I think we are both right…they initially succeeded…but aren’t any longer. Hopefully the trend will continue and Palin will beat the perception the MSM wishes to propagate.

  • Dencal26

    Actually both Jackson and Obama are both community organizers who are well know for their oratory skills. Neither one has ever been a successful elected official as Palin is. Obama was a below average US Senator.

    Jessie and Obama give decent speeches and little else.

  • davo119

    John McCain was approved by the MSM to be the Republican nominee. Cross voting in the early primaries assured the disaster. Unfortunately for the lefties McCain did the unexpected with the selection of Palin as his running mate.
    With her acceptance speech at the convention they realized what a horrible mistake they had made and feverishly went after her like the pack of rabid dogs they are. McCain was dismissed as peripheral and a full court press was launched against Palin.
    As they continue their relentless attacks 6 MONTHS AFTER THE ELECTION, it is glaringly obvious that they remain mortally threatened by her very existence.
    As the MSM’s death spiral into oblivion proceeds I believe Sarah Palin is their last desperate attempt to remain relevant. Too bad for them. They are only adding to her experience and making her stronger.
    The expansion of the conservative base is directly proportional to the growing awareness of the utter incompetence of Obama and I believe Palin is positioning herself to take full advantage of this reversal.

  • Josh Painter

    Their attacks on Palin are now (actually, since January) having a boomerang effect.

    are having a boomerang effect.

    In the same poll I quoted above, this question was asked: ?Do you think Sarah Palin has been treated fairly or unfairly by the press??

    The overall response was 58% Unfairly, 35% Fairly

    85% of Republicans said unfairly. 58% of independents and even 41% of Democrats agreed with them.

    If the drive-bys keep this up, they will only generate more sympathy for Sarah Palin, and some of this sympathy will become support for her.

    Americans love the underdog. They cheer for the underdog. Especially if they perceive that the underdog has gotten a raw deal.

    - JP

    • Rod_Patrick
  • clifwest

    If Sarah will keep her cool and continue hammering away at the Liberal power house she might well be in line to run in 2012. I just hope that there is enough of our nation left to govern after the Liberals have destroyed almost every vestige of our Constitution and run our nation so far into debt that it can never recover. Unfortunately, the Liberals are not just in power, they intend to make sure they stay in control. Inch by inch, law by law, they intend to make running against them almost impossible. They will take control of our very lives and when the American people realize what has happened, it may be too late to turn it around. On a positive note, George Soros is seventy-eight and no one lives forever. However, if you believe in the adage that only the good die young, he may well reach one hundred and still be calling the shots for our nation throwing his billions where they count, electing any Liberal regardless of qualifications. What Conservative Democrats like me and the Republicans need are a few billionaires on our side for a change and our own media. The media we have is solidly in the Liberals’ pocket so they are no use to honest Americans. We need a media that hasn’t been brain washed, one that has been educated. One thing we do know for sure, Sarah Palin is for real and wasn’t put together with silly putty like some people we know!