Although it has yet to see combat in the air, the F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter is the object of an intense dogfight on Capitol Hill. The debate has made for some strange bedfellows. On one side, there are the antis - the Pentagon, Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin and Sen. John McCain among them - who want to wrap the program up and shut down the production line. One the other, the pros - Sen. Saxby Chambliss, Sen. Chris Dodd and the Air Force Association - who want to see more of the advanced fighters built.
The Raptor is beyond impressive:
The F-22, which entered service three years ago, blends key technologies that formerly existed only separately on other aircraft - or not at all. Its stealthiness will make trigger-happy combatants shoot at birds. It has agility, air-to-air combat abilities and penetrability far beyond that of the F-15 Eagle which entered service 33 years ago. It cruises at Mach-plus speeds without using fuel-guzzling afterburners.
No other fighter on the planet can touch it. So what’s the problem?
The advanced fighter has plenty of issues, if you listen to its critics. They say the Raptor costs too much. The aircraft’s supporters say that argument is a straw man:
Originally the Air Force requested up to 762, but that was progressively cut to 648, 442, 339, then 277 before the current 203, of which 134 have been built.
A major criticism of the Raptor is the cost - about $339 million per aircraft. But much of this reflects a wisely added ground attack role and a sneaky but common ruse used to cut weapon procurements. Technology development costs are fixed. So each time an order is reduced, per-unit prices go up. Critics slashed the F-22 order, and then cited the “stunning” per-unit cost to slash away again.
This game has played out with one weapon system after another, helping explain why an initial plan for acquiring 132 B-2 Spirit bombers ended with a pitiful purchase of 21. But the current per-unit cost for each additional F-22 is around $136 million, according to the Air Force.
Even at $136 million, the F-22 is not cheap. Some have suggested building more of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters instead of Raptors, but the two aircraft were designed for different missions. The F-22 is an air superiority fighter, designed to replace the F-15. The F-35, on the other hand, was conceived as a multi-role fighter, and its mission depends on the version and branch of service :
USAF: F-35A air-to-ground strike aircraft, replacing F-16 and A-10, complementing F-22 (1763aircraft);
USMC: F-35B – STOVL strike fighter to replace F/A-18B/C and AV-8B (480 aircraft);
UK Royal Navy: F-35C – STOVL strike fighter to replace Sea Harriers (60 aircraft);
US Navy: F-35C – first-day-of-war strike fighter to replace F/A-18B/C and A-6, complementing the F/A-18E/F (480 aircraft)
Also, the F-35 suffers from its own version of sticker shock. According to a 2007 GAO report:
Total projected acquisition costs have increased by $31.6 billion since 2004. The program has confronted delays in several “key events,” including the start of the flight test program, delivery of the first production representative development aircraft and testing of critical mission systems.
The average cost per airplane, the report said, has risen from $82 million to almost $95 million. That figure is sharply at odds with the government projections, which ranges from $47 million to $60 million, depending on the variant.
Others have proposed that instead of producing more Raptors, we should simply keep flying the F-15. But that option is not without a downside:
If necessary, the Air Force says it will try to fill the F-22 shortage by keeping F-15s flying to 2025. It won’t work. Even eight years ago, “some foreign aircraft we’ve been able to test, our best pilots flying their airplanes [from other countries] beat our pilots flying our airplanes every time,” then-Air Force chief of staff Gen. John Jumper told Congress.
Two years earlier, the independent Federation of American Scientists (FAS) noted that the Russian Sukhoi Flanker Su-27, which entered service eight years after the Eagle, “leveled the playing field” with the F-15. Su-27s, both Russian-built and Chinese-pirated copies, are now in arsenals around the world.
Nor are enemy fighters our only worry. Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) have improved dramatically in recent years. The country’s S-300 system is “one of the most lethal, if not the most lethal, all-altitude area defense,” noted the International Strategy and Assessment Service, a Virginia-based think tank, three years ago. China also has the S-300 and the Russians announced in December they’ll soon sell units to Iran…
“Only the F-22 can survive in airspace defended by increasingly capable surface-to-air missiles,” declared Air Force Association President Mike Dunn in December.
Another criticism leveled at the Raptor is that it is too costly to maintain. The Washington Post, in an article highly critical of the F-22, reported:
The United States’ top fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-22, has recently required more than 30 hours of maintenance for every hour in the skies, pushing its hourly cost of flying to more than $44,000, a far higher figure than for the warplane it replaces, confidential Pentagon test results show.
The aircraft’s radar-absorbing metallic skin is the principal cause of its maintenance troubles, with unexpected shortcomings — such as vulnerability to rain and other abrasion — challenging Air Force and contractor technicians since the mid-1990s, according to Pentagon officials, internal documents and a former engineer.
The Air Force Association responded to the Washington Post’s criticisms by issuing a rebuttal fact sheet:
Assertion: The airplane is proving very expensive to operate with a cost per flying hour far higher than for the warplane it replaces, the F-15.
Facts: USAF data shows that in 2008 the F-22 costs $44K per flying hour and the F-15 costs $30K per flying hour. But it is important to recognize the F-22 flight hour costs include base standup and other one-time costs associated with deploying a new weapon system. The F-15 is mature and does not have these same non-recurring costs. A more valid comparison is variable cost per flying hour, which for the F-22 in 2008 was $19K while for the F-15 was $17K.
Assertion: The aircraft’s radar-absorbing metallic skin is the principal cause of its maintenance troubles, with unexpected shortcomings.
Fact: Stealth is a breakthrough system capability and it requires regular maintenance, just like electronics or hydraulics. The skin of the F-22 is a part of the stealth capability and it requires routine maintenance. About one-third of the F-22’s current maintenance activity is associated with the stealth system, including the skin. It is important to recognize the F-22 currently meets or exceeds its maintenance requirements, and the operational capability of the F-22 is outstanding, in part due to its stealth system.
Assertion: The F-22 is vulnerable to rain and other elements due to its stealthy skin.
Facts: The F-22 is an all-weather fighter and rain is not an issue. The F-22 is currently based and operating in the harshest climates in the world ranging from the desert in Nevada and California, to extreme cold in Alaska, and rain/humidity in Florida, Okinawa and Guam. In all of these environments the F-22 has performed extremely well.
The Raptor’s supporters argue that 187 units of the aircraft are not enough:
Strategically, 187 F-22 Raptors simply isn’t an adequate number for a future war against China and/or Russia, and the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), also made by Lockheed Martin, simply doesn’t have the Raptor’s air-to-air combat capability, so it can’t fulfill the same air-superiority role against the latest Russian fighters, let alone their Gen-5 fighters that are currently either under development or on the drawing board–and Russia likes to export their fighters. DefenseReview would therefore feel much more comfortable with a quiver of at least 1,000 Raptors–preferably half of them in two-seat “Super Raptor” form–for a war against the Dragon and/or the Bear. Both countries (China and Russia) are currently developing low-observable, supermaneuvarable 5th Generation fighter aircraft, and Russia’s latest 4th-Gen. Sukhoi and MiG aircraft currently being exported to other countries are arguably superior to our latest F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft in a number of aspects.
The plane’s critics answer that argument by saying that China is not likely to be a threat to the U.S. for some time to come, and Russian 4th Gen. fighters are overrated. If the Russians and the Chinese were not so willing and even eager to export their fighters, the threat argument would hold water. But the opposite has been the case. The problem is not that the Russians export their Su-27 (as the Su-30M), it’s who they are willing to sell it to. They have provided Venezuela with an admittedly few of the aircraft, but what’s to keep the Russians from letting Iran have them? There was a report in The Jerusalem Post in 2007 that just such a deal was in the works, but Sukhoi officials flatly denied it. Still, we don’t know what Putin might do depending on the situation.
But the Su-27 and Su-30 are not the future of the Russian Air Force. Sukhoi is developing its own fifth generation fighter to counter the F-22. The T-50 PAK FA is intended to replace the Su-27 and the MiG-29. Will they produce more than 187 of them? The Russian Air Force has 200 MiG29s and twice that many Su-27s in service,so the math is not hard to do to answer that question.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S. Senate, it’s not hard to understand why Chambliss and Dodd want more Raptors to be built. The Lockheed Martin plant where F-22s are assembled is located in Chambliss’ home state of Georgia, and the Pratt & Whitney facility which builds the Raptor’s engines is in Dodd’s Ohio. Chambliss and Georgia’s other Senator Johnny Isakson wrote an AJC op-ed in defense of the fighter. The Raptor program means jobs, of course, and in an economy that is shedding jobs like a Golden Retriever sheds fur in August, jobs are critical. It’s easy to understand their concern. It’s not just their states that will be affected if F-22 production is allowed to cease. Parts of the fighter are made in 40 of the nation’s states,.
But even some of the fighter’s defenders agree that is not a valid reason to continue producing the F-22. The fighter should be a weapons program, not a jobs program. The Heritage Foundation bases its argument for building more Raptors on what it calls “a growing air power fighter gap” and says the need for the advanced fighter is based strictly on the issue of defense:
Congress and the Pentagon should carefully examine the inherent capabilities and qualities of each model of fighter to verify that it can fulfill these requirements and defeat the technological challenges that may be posed by future challengers.
Congress must ensure that the U.S. military maintains both its technological edge and adequate numbers of aircraft to maintain U.S. air superiority well into the 21st century.
Meanwhile, the Congressional dogfight continues over the F-22:
“The House added $369 million for advanced procurement of 12 aircraft in FY2011. The Senate, last week, added $1.75 billion to buy seven aircraft, effectively providing all funding up front for the new aircraft, unlike the House, which leaves more budget wiggle room.”
President Obama has threatened to veto his own defense bill if it is presented to him with funding for any continuation of the Raptor program included. He has characterized any further spending on the program as “wasteful.” The way the president has thrown money away, he is perhaps not the best Washington figure to make that argument. But then neither is John McCain, who interrupted his presidential campaign to go to Capitol Hill to help save the Porkubus. Perhaps these two guys should just shut up and let Gates do the talking.
- JP

1000+ >1/2 "Super" F-22 Raptors....
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 2:20PM EDT (link)Plus I would suggest
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
kowalski, I have been sick...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 2:23PM EDT (link)…getting on the next gen replacement for the F22 right away given that it will take 30-50 years before we field its replacement (XF-##).
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
What's wrong with the Raptor???
6eorge Jetson Friday, July 17th at 2:23PM EDT (link)It doesn’t fit into Zer∅’s plan of “just another country”, devoid of exceptionalism and the responsibilities that go with it.
Hold off on that Mammogram for 10 years
Expensive Platforms Lose in Battle
Ron Robinson Friday, July 17th at 3:08PM EDT (link)Let’s simply look at what actually happens to expensive platforms in the field, in combat.
Turns out that frequently, the generals and admirals make the decision that they do not want to risk their highly expensive toys in a target rich environment.
If the assets are not risked in the first place, then they cannot win the battle.
That means a win for the enemy while still in the ‘diplomatic standoff’ stage of a conflict because the generals/admirals report to the CinC that they don’t feel confident going in.
If battles could be won or last depending on the capabilities published in last years’ Janes then expensive platforms might be a good deal.
But with expensive platofrms like these, we lose the jump in the early stages of a conflict because we can’t just deploy a squadron - we must deploy an entire wing or the high maintenance requirements cannot be met in the field. PLus the current emphasis on force protection means these platforms can’t take the risks they were intended to mitigate.
Everybody seems to forget that preparing for war means preparing to fight.
________________________________________
Ron Robinson
e-Commerce Exec at 800Cart.com eCommerce who blogs at watchcenter.blogspot.com For over 15 years, his firm has assisted over 10,000 small merchants to quickly and easily ’self serve’ their businesses to e-commerce prosperity.
So M-60 Tanks are Better Than M1 Tanks?
Repair_Man_Jack Friday, July 17th at 3:15PM EDT (link)Maybe we should also scrap all of our Bradleys, and ride M-113s into battle instead.
Hope is not a plan. Change is not always good.
Actually, AH-47 and CH-64 Helicopters...
Repair_Man_Jack Friday, July 17th at 3:22PM EDT (link)Have among the highest Per Unit Acquisition Costs of any systems the US Army owns and operates. They are both currently being flown at 10 life-years per FY Optempo. They are all having to be taken home and immediately reset after deployment due to much higher usage rates than they were originally designed for.
Hope is not a plan. Change is not always good.
I have to think you mean...
Taniwha Friday, July 17th at 3:51PM EDT (link)CH-47 and AH-64, unless a lot more has changed than I thought since I last rode in them in 1990…
————————
Proofreading would be my friend....
Repair_Man_Jack Friday, July 17th at 10:04PM EDT (link)Thank you.
Hope is not a plan. Change is not always good.
Except for Vietnam, we don't fight this way...
Fred Maidment Friday, July 17th at 11:10PM EDT (link)The US Military has learned, the hard way, that obliterating the enemy as quickly as possible is the best way to fight a war. Slow build ups only increase enemy resolve and give the enemy time to prepare defenses. Having just a “squadron” to fight a war is ill-advised and dangerous.
“Force protection” is best achieved by destroying your enemy through superior firepower and advantageous fighting position, not limiting your engagements. Thankfully, most of our generals today have learned this. Hopefully, future generals will know this, also.
How to Start a Business - Fred’s News
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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
- - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791
It's he future, and current, CinC that worries me. nt
TNJim Friday, July 17th at 11:14PM EDT (link)“No. You can’t” -Moe Lane
"The" not "He" nt
TNJim Friday, July 17th at 11:15PM EDT (link)“No. You can’t” -Moe Lane
and now this bill has a hate crimes attachment
bk Friday, July 17th at 3:08PM EDT (link)Collins, Snowe, Lugar, Murkowski, and Voinovich joined the 58 Dems to enable cloture on adding this completely unrelated amendment to the bill. Lovely.
Sunk Vs "To-Go" Costs
Repair_Man_Jack Friday, July 17th at 3:14PM EDT (link)If the R&D is done already, and the anti’s are slamming the F-22 on the basis of PUAC, they are maroons. A good 25-30% of that PUAC is fixed and already spent. That’s like walking away from buying a house and forfeiting your down payment money and getting nothing in return. Dumb!
Hope is not a plan. Change is not always good.
I'm A Hawk, But I Think The Military Also Wastes A Lot Of Money
DavidSage Friday, July 17th at 3:23PM EDT (link)I think there’s a knee jerk reaction among conservatives that EVERY military expenditure is valid, no matter what the cost. I happen to think we waste a lot of money on military hardware, especially in a post-Cold War world.
What hostile country are we going to have dogfights with that we need such an expensive aircraft? These types of programs were developed when we still thought we were going to be competing with Soviet Migs. Our current aircraft technology is many generations ahead of any Mig fighter plane.
There are all sorts of military projects and equipment that actual military leadership in the field have said we don’t want or need, but because of high paid lobbyists, they get shoved down the military’s throat, at the taxpayer’s incredible expense. Members of Congress like Murtha just want the high paying projects in their district, and the political fundraising from these military contractors that go along with it. It has nothing to do with National Security.
I supported Reagan’s build up of the military, and I know it was instrumental in winning the Cold War, but I think that buildup was under the assumption that at some point we would scale back once the threat of Soviet expansion was over. I think President Eisenhower’s (a former 5 star general) warning about the Military Industrial Complex during his farewell speech is something we should never forget.
5*'s n/c
BillM Friday, July 17th at 7:05PM EDT (link).
STEVENS, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which SCALIA, J., joined.
We also cut the military after WWI
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:31PM EDT (link)That worked out well for us didn’t it.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
And after WWII, and after Korea, and after Viet Nam,
Achance Saturday, July 18th at 5:59AM EDT (link)and after the fall of the Soviet Union, and after the Gulf War. Americans can’t get over thinking that war is like a football game; you win and go home to screw the cheerleaders. Then, when some new evil, and sometimes a resurgent old evil, raises its head, we must desperately and expensively re-arm. We do it over and over and it is always the same party in power which does it!
This time, though, we’re going to do it differently. Comrade Obams and the Politburo seem intent on making the US a very mediocre nation, one that nobody else will fear or envy. They think that will give us peace. I think it will give us horror, horror that will make 9-11 pale in comparison. There are very bad people out there thinking that the odds are pretty good that should they do an EMP burst over North America or even launch a nuclear attack against one or more US cities, that the US will merely want to talk about it. Unfortunately, they’re probably right.
In Vino Veritas
"Go home and screw the cheerleaders."
Wing Zero Thursday, July 30th at 12:01AM EDT (link)Dude, that was funny!
You raise very good points. We as a nation aren’t good at predicting the next war. That’s why I want to fill the skies with Raptors, and give grunts whatever tools they need to keep safe.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
Making Air-to-Air Cost-Effective and Combat-Effective, Too
Ron Robinson Friday, July 17th at 5:05PM EDT (link)Gave it a little thought since my last comment. The F-22 costs $332 million per copy. The Predator costs $8 million per copy.
The Air Force says they will probably incline toward unmanned fighters in the future anyway.
Take the cost of 3 of these F-22s and devote them toward developing a version of the Predator intended for an air superiority role.
Pucker factor for opposing pilots and generals: instead of facing one plane, you are now facing 40. You might shoot one down, but the enemy (us) has not lost a pilot (and thus no SAR effort to distract the enemy). No captive pilot to put on TV. 39 more are still gunning for you and your forces right now.
Aircraft carriers now carry 350 planes instead of just 90; that more than triples the value of one carrier deployment. What was once bunk space for the pilots is now munitions storage for more air-air missiles (you will need them).
As noted elsewhere, the F-22 has to be programmed to limit its performance to keep the pilot awake and aware thru high-G turns and maneuvers that can and do produce pilot black-outs. Instead, let the machine produce all the performance it is capable of — without a human pilot on-board.
If you want to make opposing generals wet their knickers (and ours say ’so what?’), this is the way to do it.
________________________________________
Ron Robinson
e-Commerce Exec at 800Cart.com eCommerce who blogs at watchcenter.blogspot.com For over 15 years, his firm has assisted over 10,000 small merchants to quickly and easily ’self serve’ their businesses to e-commerce prosperity.
Kudos. This is the best argument.
DFLer Friday, July 17th at 5:24PM EDT (link)Time to move on from investing huge amounts of money per unit in manned planes when unmanned planes can do most of the same work for a fraction of the cost. Chambliss and Dodd can pound sand.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles augment...
Fred Maidment Friday, July 17th at 10:38PM EDT (link)…not supplant. There will be a role for unmanned fighters in the future. They will never replace the creativity and ingenuity of our pilots.
Well, maybe someday when we build SkyNet and start manufacturing Terminators…
How to Start a Business - Fred’s News
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“I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.”
- - Thomas Jefferson, to Archibald Stuart, 1791
We had better build lots of predators, then...
Josh Painter Friday, July 17th at 6:41PM EDT (link)to take out those 500+ 5th Gen’s the Russians will build, jic.
- JP
“An armed society is a polite society” - Robert A. Heinlein, “Beyond This Horizon” (1942)
As Noted...
Ron Robinson Saturday, July 18th at 1:57PM EDT (link)You get 40 UAVs for every one F-22. Building LOTS more of them would be no big trick. Even the F-22 itself cannot single-handedly attack that many targets.
And it would be a repeat of the way we won the Cold War - force them to spend themselves into bankruptcy in order try try to respond to our capabilities.
________________________________________
Ron Robinson
e-Commerce Exec at 800Cart.com eCommerce who blogs at watchcenter.blogspot.com For over 15 years, his firm has assisted over 10,000 small merchants to quickly and easily ’self serve’ their businesses to e-commerce prosperity.
We went here with guns vs. missiles. Guns won.
Achance Saturday, July 18th at 6:03AM EDT (link)Even the best computers are stupid compared to a man of more than room temperature IQ. Maybe one day, but not this day.
In Vino Veritas
OK, since I can not address all of the stupid anti-F-22 arguments...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 7:44PM EDT (link)that I have read on this board, all I can say is that some of you F-22=bad people have some very poor misconceptions of warfare and the future of it. The F-22 is an air superiority weapon, and the cost is sunk as pointed out by Repair_Man_Jack.
You all against the F-22 Raptor are selling the american military down the road, and you may live, or die to regret it.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
I dont know enough about the raptor program to respond specifically
kyle8 Friday, July 17th at 8:10PM EDT (link)but there is absolutely no time in the near or intermediate future in which our air superiority will be challenged. The Soviet air force is a shadow of it’ former self and is using old equipment.
The Chinese have a lot of mediocre planes and we would have a hard time against them in a land war in Asia, But if we have to fight the Chinese in Asia we are doing something wrong in the first place.
The only other air forces that might last more than an hour against us are the French, the British, and the Israelis, and they are at least on paper our allies.
Furthermore, the future of air combat looks like it might fall increasingly upon the drone plane.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle
I do not know if I agree with you kyle8...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 8:28PM EDT (link)I would say right now you may be right, but that small fleet of raptors will not be able to compete against the numbers of the Russians and Chinese, plus I do not have the full confidence in the F-15 as capable as it used to be. Right now the Russians and Chinese would just have to send in a squandron large enough so that a fleet of four F-22’s could not deal with, once ammo is spent and visual contact is made the F-22 will have to rely on all of the Mach 2 plus to get away from the Russians.
I do not believe warfare is moving completely to drone, the human brain is still the best computer for the buck plus drones rely upon human control and communication with a loss of both the drone is useless, that is unless you want to venture down the road of AI. Didn’t anyone see Terminator?
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
drones are very much the future...
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:18PM EDT (link)Someone mentioned above that the F-22 is so fast/agile that it has been setup to under-perform so the human can keep up.
Now I ask you if we _already_ have reached the limits of human capability in this kind of flight what makes you think we wouldn’t want to remove the human from the equation?
Now imagine the F-22 with the cockpit removed from the plane and placed on the ground somewhere in the US. Just like playing a video game, yet just as effective as if the person was up there flying the plane himself….. but better
HOTUS
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:25PM EDT (link)Hands On Throttle and Stick
A pilot spends most of his time looking OUTSIDE the aircraft. You’d never get enough cameras or the right interface to replace the pilot.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
who's to say...
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:30PM EDT (link)there is no camera in a “cockpit” attached to a swivel (also called a neck) that is set to auto pan with the movements of the head of the guy back home controlling it?
Relay
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:38PM EDT (link)What happens if that relay gets broken, or jammed?
What happens if something craps out in the middle of a mission?
What happens if that camera goes on the fritz?
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
what kind of question is that?
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:40PM EDT (link)What happens to a normal F-22 when the engine goes out?
The advantage though is in my case nobody dies, and more than likely the lost aircraft is cheaper.
We have 2 engines in that Fighter.
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:43PM EDT (link)It can fly home one.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
just extra redundancy
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:50PM EDT (link)That a drone does not need
Well, it depends on what technology is on the drone
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:54PM EDT (link)doesn’t it.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
I'm not sure whose physics class you failed...
youngling Saturday, July 18th at 12:54AM EDT (link)but there is an insurmountable problem with this whole “virtual cockpit” concept. It’s known as lag…an autopan feature requires a computer to analyze the “pilots” head movements and transmit them to the plane, then the camera moves and the images must be transmitted back to the virtual cockpit where the “pilot” is. Since the absolute fastest way we can transmit information is at the speed of light (via radio waves, which are just light waves we can’t see) the distance involved produces lag time, not to mention the processing time required to interpret the commands from the moving head and then to execute those commands…have you ever played a flight simulator on a computer that barely met the system requirements? or on a computer that almost met them? Lag is bad, and in a dogfight, it will kill you - in this case, no human dies, but we still lose the fight…not an acceptable solution
“Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.”
Ronald Reagan
Germany's not half-bad, either nt
aesthete Friday, July 17th at 9:22PM EDT (link)Guilt is a rope that wears thin.
-Ayn Rand
“I am a freeman in a free state!”
-Last words of Dumnorix, chieftan of the Aedui, 54 BC
We've never been good at predicting the next war
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:29PM EDT (link)Which is why we NEED the Raptor and UAV’s.
I’m all for placing a small UAV with a group of soldiers to increase SA on the battle field.
I’m all for sending out a Reaper to take out an IED maker.
But should we get into it with Russia and China, I want a Raptor there, taking out SAMs, Flankers, and MiGs.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
It's not the Chinese's planes that bother me...NT
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:39PM EDT (link)1-21-09 - We are so screwd
No, Me Either...
tsquare Friday, July 17th at 10:34PM EDT (link)‘Never get into a land war in Asia…’
You need to read more about this...
Fred Maidment Friday, July 17th at 10:44PM EDT (link)…both the Russians and the Chinese are building air-superiority fighters equal or superior in capability to our own 4th-Gen F-15s and F-16s. And as stated in the article, they just love to export their fighters.
Of the 4th-Gen, only the F-18 E/F, which arguably is Gen 4.5, can go toe-to-toe with the best fighters the Russians and Chinese can offer. And it’s mission isn’t air superiority.
I don’t buy the drone argument, either. Computers aren’t creative. They don’t innovate, intuit or act in unexpected ways. They simply aren’t “smart” yet. That is a dream of the future. We need F-22s today.
I’m reminded of the arguments that lead the to development of the F-4 prior to Vietnam. “They won’t need a gun, they’ll have missiles.” Missiles that fail. “They won’t need to dogfight, they’ll shoot the enemy down from miles away.” Yeah, that works when you’re attacking big, lumbering nuclear bombers, not fighters like the MiG-17 and MiG-21.
I’m seeing history repeat itself, and I’m very disturbed.
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Here We go again
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:20PM EDT (link)Alright People,
I dare say I’m the ONLY one on this board/website to have ever been associated with the Raptor in any way, shape, or form.
I will say this here and now, you will NEVER take a fighter pilot completely out of the cockpit. There are too many variables that one must consider in the heat of combat that computers, satellite relays, and a boat load of sensors can not compensate for.
Besides, to ESTABLISH air superiority, one must eliminate 2 threats:
1. Enemy Air Craft
2. Enemy ground based weapon systems. (mostly Surfaces to Air Missles - SAMS)
No UAV now, or in 30 years, will be capable of the kind performance it will take to take down an SA-10, SA-20, or the future upgrades and follow ons to those systems.
Second, enemy air craft capabilities are not always public. Neither are ours. Unless you are the President, an engineer that designed the plane, or someone currently stationed at Langley, Alaska, Tyndal in Florida, or Nevada, I’m SURE you are not fully aware of what this plane can do.
Air to Air combat is not what you see on Iron Eagle, Top Gun, or Transformers. If a four ship of flankers each carrying 6 radar guided missiles is a formidable group.
A G-limiter is not only found on the Raptor. Many late model aircraft have this feature.
Again, we’re talking UNCLASSIFIED here. Were I to let loose all the details, most of you would surely understand why the Raptor is needed.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
you know what happens to people who say never...
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:27PM EDT (link)The end up being wrong
I am not saying we have the tech now, but there was a time when GB hard drives, and GHz CPU’s would have been called insane.
The bandwidth will happen, the latency issues will be resolved, and the human interface will be optimized (or dropped altogether (see Terminator)).
Now if this is 10 or 50 or 100 years out I dunno
Dave
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:35PM EDT (link)I’m a former AF 1N0. I know what air combat is like. I also know what a Surface to Air Missile system like the SA-20 can do.
You simply CAN NOT build an Air to Air fighter without someone at the controls.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
maybe.
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 9:48PM EDT (link)You might be correct in that drones will never be able to perform air combat just like a human would…. but that does not mean they cannot perform air combat, replace humans in the air, and even be a superior alternative.
You do not know what kind of tech we will have in 50 years, neither do I, but as someone who works with computers every day I have seen how fact the technology has advanced, I even have a computer controlled aircraft at home as an RC toy these days…. throw a GPS unit on it and its a “military drone” (minus the payload capacity, and the range
)
http://imgur.com/n2qCz if you want to see a pic of it
As someone that worked with the F-15 AND F-22
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 10:10PM EDT (link)You can’t take the pilot out of the plane when it comes to Air to Air combat.
To replace the man, first you have to have a system capable of flying and landing the Aircraft. Second, if you don’t have an Artificial Intelligence flying the jet, you need a relay so someone can sit at his console and control the thing. Relays need time, they also need either satellites, other Aircraft, or ground control.
Think about a future mission for the F-22.
This will be a deep strike mission. (cut off from communication a possibility due to jamming) The F-22 has to take out a “double digit” SAM protecting a high level target (leadership, expensive equipment) and do it while taking out an attacking squad of flankers.
The human brain can think independently as where all our “unmanned” systems now relay on a programmer or pilot to operate them.
Then… there’s the whole issue of experience. Most guys flying these types of missions are Majors and above - not some straight out of flight school LT.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
im not discounting any of that...
dave_in_atl Friday, July 17th at 10:29PM EDT (link)I think first of all you should assume that in the future there will be something way better than today’s satellite links. I would also expect with our current progress in quantum mechanics we will have developed wireless communication systems that are effectively unjammable (and this is assuming they don’t already exist).
Also I would not necessarily discount the AI flying the jet scenario just yet. I think its way to tempting not to happen if it becomes possible.
You'd be required to move faster than the speed of light
Wing Zero Tuesday, July 28th at 4:37PM EDT (link)if you want to make communications with jets more efficient.
Besides, do you think Obama would “invest” money in future weapons systems? No. He’s not going to push for any fighter beyond the Raptor, which our scientists should be working on right now…
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
Obama has been proven as the greatest
izoneguy Tuesday, July 28th at 4:40PM EDT (link)Weapon of Mass Destruction to hit America - evah!!!
“When the government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Thomas Jefferson
come on Wing Zero total dis' on me here...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 9:34PM EDT (link)dare say I am the “only”, man I am just totally disappointed, sheesh total dis… Doesn’t it suck that 10 years in federal prison and 250k in fines is not worth being right on this one.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
10 years?
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 9:36PM EDT (link)That’s light for what I thought spilling secrets would get me…
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
maybe I have the numbers backwards 250 years and 10k in fines?-nt
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 10:06PM EDT (link)“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
That
Wing Zero Friday, July 17th at 10:11PM EDT (link)And every member of Red State will be doing paper work for the next 70 years.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
It is 10 years and 250k if the procescute
Richard Mullins Friday, July 17th at 10:23PM EDT (link)So you can only hope that this was an innocent mistake and they will let it go.
For more on my views, go my wordpress site:
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For more on Happy jet airlines, go here:
http://happyjetairlines.wordpress.com
For a good dose of satire go here:
http://thesquash.wordpress.com
For more of I like to do a lot:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42008626@N03
yea! I do know something! 10 years 250k...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 10:30PM EDT (link)they sure did pound that repercussion home.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
It's double the jail time for this as opposed to hazordous materials in luggage
Richard Mullins Friday, July 17th at 10:41PM EDT (link)5 years and/or 250k in fines for having hazardous material in your luggage.
For more on my views, go my wordpress site:
http://rpmullins.wordpress.com
For more on Happy jet airlines, go here:
http://happyjetairlines.wordpress.com
For a good dose of satire go here:
http://thesquash.wordpress.com
For more of I like to do a lot:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42008626@N03
or that you're a Democratic member of the House of Senate -nt-
civil_truth Saturday, July 18th at 4:27PM EDT (link)And Rightly So!
No one disputes how awesome the F-22 is.
jeffreywturner Friday, July 17th at 10:34PM EDT (link)However, there is an issue here of necessity.
I mean really, air to air, how many countries are there that have a SIGNIFICANT inventory of fourth generation fighter aircraft that are so advanced as to REQUIRE the use of F-22’s to combat them?
There are only a couple of countries that even have prototypes comparable to the F-22.
The simple fact is that there isn’t a single MASS-PRODUCTION adversary fighter out there that the F-15 doesn’t already provide us air superiority over.
I think the move to more of the F-35’s is a good one. Most of our enemies now and for the forseeable future are using IED’s and roadside bombs, not advanced fighter aircraft.
The roughly 200 F-22’s already finished/slated will be more than plenty for us.
“Life is too short, can’t we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?”
The F-22 Is Preemptory
IJB Friday, July 17th at 10:53PM EDT (link)If you have the greatest air-to-air fighter since sliced bread, 2 generations ahead of what everyone else has, you (or any of the other guys) won’t even bother trying to challenge us on it.
Personally, I’d like to see us have at least 250 of these things (over 300 would be better), for exactly the reason I’ve outlined.
As for the F-35, it’s fine, if you assume that every conflict from here on in is going to be just like Iraq, etc. I, for one, *don’t* assume that.
Plan to fight a war on equal terms...
Fred Maidment Friday, July 17th at 10:57PM EDT (link)…and prepare to lose.
The problem isn’t one of equivalency. It’s a question of superiority. You want the best pilot in the best plane with the best weapons. Period. We did not have this at the start of WWII and we lost a $#!&-load of pilots to the Japanese. Our planes were only equal in Korea, but our pilots were superior, and that helped a lot. We didn’t have the best plane–ever–during Vietnam.
The fact is, we’d rather not fight an air war in the air. We’d like to take out every enemy plane while it’s still vulnerable and defenseless on the ground. Each time in Iraq, we largely succeeded.
Our next war likely won’t be against a tactical dunce like Saddam. When that war comes, we will face the best 4th-Gen fighters the Russians and Chinese (and possibly the Euros) have to offer. Many of these planes are equal to or better than our 4th-Gen birds. Add to this, we have needs for these aircraft all over the world. In addition to fighting a war, we’ll still need a presence everywhere else. 187 birds just isn’t enough.
The F-35 simply isn’t capable of the air-superiority role that the F-22 can do. It’s like asking a F-350 Superduty to do the job of a Semi Truck-and-Trailer. The F-350 is powerful and capable of many things, but only that Semi can pull that 45,000lbs load up the Great Smoky Mountain passes at 50 mph.
Similarly, the F-35 is a capable little fighter, but only the F-22 is going to be able to go toe-to-toe with the T-50.
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It's more the advanced training of US pilots than the technical superiority of the F-15...
rbdwiggins Friday, July 17th at 11:40PM EDT (link)The F-22 Raptor corrects the technical and performance deficiencies of the F-15C.
When the F-22’s “necessity” becomes clearly obvious, it will be too late.
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan
This is such a simple thing to decide on principle....what would Reagan do??.....
Aaron Gardner Friday, July 17th at 11:01PM EDT (link)PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH
If you’re against the Raptor, especially at this late stage when we have already made the major investment, then you might as well be against SDI too.
Reagan was right. “And that’s the way it is”. RIP Walter Cronkite.
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What I was Coming in to say...
tsquare Friday, July 17th at 11:06PM EDT (link)“The roughly 200 F-22’s already finished/slated will be more than plenty for us.”
There are plenty of reasons for this and we’ll get to some of them in a moment but the one thing I’m surprised at is:
No one has yet mentioned our VAST superiority in pilots, and training. All other things being equal we could give China… or Russia a hundred Raptors, and a year later… assuming that they could keep them all flying that long, our guys would clean their clocks. What… 3x, 4x training time in plane per month plus sim time? Plus OPFOR training. In any type of fair fight our guys will win. Our guys having the Raptor makes it an even more of an unfair fight.
As to why we will never need more than 200 of them… this is simple: we will never have a theater large enough to need them. In essence we don’t have an Army large enough to need control of an airspace larger than a country say the size of Iraq… or Taiwan. 100 along with ground attack planes along with Taiwanese forces and I think you have it covered. That also leaves out the fact the for us at least Taiwan would be mostly a Naval war.
The other option against China is in support of India. This too would likely see the F-22 in a support role clearing a smaller area of the overall battle space to cover an attack, a counter attack or a withdraw under fire. Indian aircraft would be covering most of the battle space.
Additionally, we could expect a very conservative kill ratio of 5 to 1. Could China commit 500 front line fighters to either one of those battle spaces? If not they loose. AND all this is before any loses from air to ground attacks and SAMs. One of the reasons we are still flying heavy bombers is to take out their planes on the ground or and worse their air fields and aircraft support. Can’t fly the next sortie if you can’t land and get fuel and new arms.
That leaves Russia and I’ll just add that guys… the Reds aren’t a com’n through the Fudda any time soon. Enough said.
Want more than 200 F-22s? Get back with me when the Army adds four NEW heavy Divisions. Then we’ll talk.
Um...
Wing Zero Tuesday, July 28th at 4:56PM EDT (link)“No one has yet mentioned our VAST superiority in pilots, and training. All other things being equal we could give China… or Russia a hundred Raptors, and a year later… assuming that they could keep them all flying that long, our guys would clean their clocks.”
We would have 100 raptors disassembled and being reverse engineered by the Chinese… but our pilots have better training.
However - The Chinese are seeking parity with our pilots. Give them 5 or 10 years, about the time we’ll get into a war with them… it won’t be pretty.
You need better pilots and air craft… it’s not an either or option.
1-21-09 - We are so screwd
The F-22 is a waste of money
nod90 Friday, July 17th at 11:17PM EDT (link)This program is an example of why the Bush White House ran up a huge deficit. There is no need for it, but it was kept going as a jobs program and to please well connected defense contractors.
The US military faces a crisis. The new generation of weapons costs 3-5 times as much as the weapons bought in the Reagan era. One for one replacement of the existing force structure is unaffordable. When the old systems wear out there will be huge declines in numbers and probably in combat capability. It is true that the news systems are more capable but in many scenarios the added capability will not be relevant.
The strength of the USAF lies in a combination of good aircraft, good missiles, AWACS (airborne radar), good electronic warfare and very well trained pilots. The Su-30 MKI is a good airplane, but a third world country is not going to achieve parity with the USAF just by buying it.
The only countries that can really compete with USAF would be Britain, France, Germany, Israel and Japan. The last two depend on US equipment and could be crippled by cutting off spare parts. The Europeans could field about 500 Eurofighter and Rafales against 200 USAF F-22s. It would be an interesting war, but the USAF would probably still win.
The bottom line is that there is no realistic scenario for which more than 200 F-22s is needed.
Some would like to claim that Russia and China are working on their own “5th generation” aircraft which would be more capable than the Su-30. This has been discussed for years. A prototype of the Mig 1.42 was shown some years ago but the Russians seem to have decided that it was unaffordable and the project is going nowhere.
Others would like to claim that the F-22 is needed to counter the latest Russian surface to air missiles. They tend not to mention that the Russians are working on a radar which supposedly can detect stealth planes. Nor do they talk about other cheaper ways to deal with the latest Russian hardware. Nor do the mention that the Russian missiles are quite costly and that not too many have been sold abroad.
OMG, you have got to be kidding me? Have you not read the thread on F-22?-nt
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 11:26PM EDT (link)“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
If I may as a scientist and engineer, I want to build the tech around the soldier...
DONTREADONME Friday, July 17th at 11:41PM EDT (link)therefore, the next generation fighter aircraft will have to outperform all that today’s technology has to offer.
More specifically, right now the human physiology is the problem not the brain. We need to find a way to force the human body to maintain consciousness during extreme g-forces. I do not believe the drone is the next level of combat.
For now, the F-22 is the bang for the buck and is a force multiplier, too many people on this thread have given you great arguments for the continuation of the F-22 Raptor. The next generation fighter that will kick the F-22 out to the sky will require R&D and the entire DoD acquisition process which will take decades to complete, so do not stop full original AAO for the purposes of saving a buck for Zeros domestic programs. Let us not kid ourselves that is exactly why they are cutting these big programs.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
I don't disagree with you DTOM
mbecker908 Friday, July 17th at 11:57PM EDT (link)but I will note that my Marine Corps son’s favorite aircraft is the Warthog.
Ugly. Slow. Almost no-tech. But if you’re a ground pounder and you need help against armor, it’s your BEST!!!!! friend.
thats why you will never...
DONTREADONME Saturday, July 18th at 12:24AM EDT (link)here me say that I believe the F-35 is a suitable for the flying tank. Yeah, MC-35 or whatever they name it may have a small radar cross section but to sit around over the target in the bright of day taking fire (like the pictures in the link below) and ripping targets with dpl U lead is amazing. Plus my first GI Joe aircraft was Cobras A-10 version and the second was the Joes F-14.
http://www.aircraftresourcecenter.com/Stories1/001-100/0016_A-10-battle-damage/10.jpg
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
The A-10, America's Stormovik.
Achance Saturday, July 18th at 6:32AM EDT (link)Only trouble is, you have to have air superiority or an aircraft like that is just a target. I’m not the greatest fan of qualitative superiority. Sure, the Panther was better than either the Sherman or the T-34, but look at the numbers; 15K Panthers, 50+K for both the Sherman and T-34. You can be the best that ever was and you can’t deal with odds like that.
If you look back at the Battle of Britain, it wasn’t the dogfights between Spitfires and Hurricanes and Me-109s that decided it. It was the discipline of the British pilots to forego the dogfight and home in on the bombers. That’s your worry should we have to deal with a Red Chinese attack on Taiwan. Sure, the F-22 can handle anything the Chinese could throw up as escort, but what if the Chinese just decide to accept the losses, which they can, and just drive past the combat air patrol. It becomes another game then.
I just can’t think of a time in modern warfare that qualitative superiority won in a prolonged combat. If you’re superior enough and can land the knock out punch in the first few seconds of the first round, that’s one thing, e.g., the first Gulf War, but if the enemy is still standing after your first shot, quantitative superiority seems to be the game.
In Vino Veritas
Qualitative superiority will only get you so far.
mbecker908 Saturday, July 18th at 12:27PM EDT (link)Israeli pilots v non-Israeli pilots flying the same planes…
that's why I want 1000 F-22 original...
DONTREADONME Saturday, July 18th at 12:46PM EDT (link)AAO. I also believe that it is important to have a range of different aircraft in sufficient numbers to overwhelm an enemies ability to defend against all of the variants.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
Qualitative superiority +
LibRick Saturday, July 18th at 3:55PM EDT (link)increased complexity can = hanger queens. Ultimately, it’s about the numbers you can muster in a given moment as well as the training of the drivers. The F-22 is not yet ready for this. You only get bang for the buck if the aircraft can launch.
On the other hand, once the F-22 is sorted out, it’s pretty cool that it can target and kill multiple aircraft before those aircraft even see them in the combat envelop. That’s a force multiplier worth factoring in.
I’m for measured development of the F-22. In the near term though, I agree, that a quantitative response is money better spent.
Airframes Have Limited Life Spans
ntrepid Saturday, July 18th at 2:18PM EDT (link)I’ve only scanned through the sixty-nine comments here so I’m not sure if anyone has touched on this but one of my concerns is that 187 aircraft in 2009 is not 187 aircraft ready for war in 2020.
The training required for new pilots and to maintain the best of the best in experienced pilots puts many hours on life-limited airframes over the years. These things wear out and once the line is shut down, producing new ones will be next to impossible.
Ntrepid
Proud Member for 4 Years and 10 Months
“Everybody has an agenda. Except for me.” - Michael Crichton, State of Fear.
considered as part of the SE lifecycle planning to disposal of the F-22...
DONTREADONME Saturday, July 18th at 4:12PM EDT (link)to account for; therefore, expanding the airframes through modularity replacements and newer variants to increase service life. F-22 A,B,E/F all those variants will come in handy as LL are returned from the field from ops.
Oh, by what you are saying todays F-22 variants may not be the best suited variants for war in 2020, and to allow these current models to limited the force come 2020 we should not expect the same superiority as they F-22 enjoys now.
“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth
Happens every time Dems get control.
Josh Painter Saturday, July 18th at 12:26AM EDT (link)They cut the military to the bone, Reagan had to build it up again. Then under Clinton they repeated the mistake, and GWB had to almost literally start over from scratch. Now Obo the Clown and his two-ring congressional circus is making us weak again. they are cutting the planned expansion of the missile defense program and telling us less than two hundred of the most deadly fighter the world has ever seen are sufficient.
The F-22 was planned and designed to be a compliment to the F-35 JSF, each making the other more effective, but only in the numbers originally planned for. Cutting back on the Raptor will actually make the F-35 less effective.
Meanwhile, the F-15 is beginning to get long in the tooth. Fighter airframes, unlike those of heavy bombers, are subject to additional stress by supersonic flight. We wont be able to fly the 15 much beyond 2025. If the F-22 is abandoned now, then we will have to start all over from scratch after that point. And whatever air superiority fighter lies beyond the Raptor is dead certain to be much more costly then than the 22 is now.
Not keeping the line open is shortsightedness and sheer stupidity. And as Ron White says, “You can’t fix stupid.”
- JP
“An armed society is a polite society” - Robert A. Heinlein, “Beyond This Horizon” (1942)
ADATT - the new approach to hardware
lthurwitz Saturday, July 18th at 9:40AM EDT (link)A civilian contractor buddy of mine says the new buzz and dollars to follow is All Drones All The Time. So keep those kids on their video games.
It's time to r-u-m-b-l-e.....
harlan Saturday, July 18th at 11:46AM EDT (link)In a matchup, the F-22 will kick the F-35’s ass 100 out of 100 times.
So, I say let’s scrap the F-22 and build more F-35’s. Definitely. No contest.
It’s the democrat way.
Nicely balanced piece, Josh.
LibRick Saturday, July 18th at 1:44PM EDT (link)Here’s my two cents. I worked on F-15s in the 70’s (avionics) when they were a new platform. Pilots used to go afterburner right after take-off and ascend straight up — just to show off. Man, that was awesome! We’d all stand on the flight line just to watch!
The down side was that they fell below a 40% combat ready rate, sometimes hitting 20% (lots of 12 hr. shifts to improve this) But it got sorted out, and today, the F15 holds the record (see Jane’s) as the most successful air superiority fighter. F-15’s now maintain a pretty good combat ready rate…but that took almost 20 years to achieve.
The F-22 is beyond amazing. In one exercise, a single Raptor defeated multiple F15s. The problem, as most of you former zoomies must know is that combat worthiness depends on combat readiness. The Raptor will likely need a decade to mature.
So, a force of just under 200 aircraft will help keep costs down as further development eventually yields a C, D, or E model that is mature, cheaper and more reliable. In the mean time, and under the short term threats we currently face, let the Eagle keep flying and buy the time needed for the Raptor to completely replace the F15 as our first line air-superiority fighter. It makes good financial sense and opens the door for great future F-22 contracts.
I have associates that work on the Raptor program. so news of any cuts affects them. But they are all great engineers and will be deployed on other programs, some already have been.
For the reasons I touched on. I think the downsized F-22 program makes sense and ultimately will give America, a mature ultimate fighter, at a reasonable cost.
LibRick..I have a question about the cost...
Aaron Gardner Saturday, July 18th at 1:55PM EDT (link)Josh said in the piece that the cost per unit actually increases when you order less units. This is pretty much standard for anything..buying in bulk is god business.
So, with that said, are you saying that regardless of the per unit cost being lower it would be more expensive in the long run because of maintenance costs?
If so, does that take into account the increased per unit cost if we were to do short orders spanned over 10-20 years?
And would there be any comparable saving created to cover the costs by decommisionig the F-15’s and the maintenance costs incurred by them.?
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Good point, Aaron
LibRick Saturday, July 18th at 3:06PM EDT (link)Obviously, per unit cost is higher on decreased volume. But that’s not the big picture. Maintenance costs are also higher per unit on initial introduction as well as training and theater deployment cost.
An important factor is that maintenance and flying time uncover design weaknesses. (all new platforms have them) These are addressed and logged for the current build. They are ultimately incorporated in the next major build (new suffix) along with further mission capability requirements.
With the current deployed force build of just under 200 aircraft , all this will be sorted out and upgrade costs will be lower because of a reduced fleet to retrofit. When the next order occurs, (and they will) changes and upgrades will be incorporated in that build. Many of the current Raptor aircraft will undergo a complete upgrade to a new model. I’ve been involved in complete model upgrades for F-111’s and they cost almost as much as a new aircraft…in that case anyway…but they were a “unique” (meaning dog) case.
The sunk costs on engineering, fixtures, and manufacturing along with known changes/fixes usually reduce upgrade / build costs yielding a cheaper, better aircraft.
Replacing an aircraft like the F15, is not just a matter of decommission. It also involves huge costs for conversion of maintenance, processes, training. peculiar equipment, etc. to deploy the replacement aircraft. The current reduced deployment of Raptors, will still drive this and ultimately bring the cost of the next generation down.
The F-22, is poised to be the F-15 replacement. Right now it’s a matter of messing with the full roll out timeline. All military weapons platforms have a development time (even after deployment) measured in decades, not years. Future orders are inevitable… unless the platform is a complete dog.. not likely in this case.
I would be BSing if I stated, as fact, that a slower build and deployment would yield substantial savings. It may or may not. Military contracts and costs are complex and difficult to predict. I do know that cutting the production right now won’t hurt our mission readiness and may help the next build to be far better and cheaper.
Key question, LibRick
civil_truth Saturday, July 18th at 3:32PM EDT (link)…and one that is more rhetorical than factual, as you will see.
I defer to others here a RedState who understand military contracting and weapons development, which I don’t have the background. However, you do make a what seems from my inexperienced perspective a reasoned case for limiting this round of purchases of the F-22 on “gamma testing” grounds - that we’ll be better off viewing the first generation as a debugging tool so that future F-22’s can do much better rather than buying the first model version up front.
So here’s the question: do you really believe that the current Adminstration headed by Obama really has any intentions to continue to develop the F-22 with an eye towards future purchases of an improved model - or is their intention to shut down the pipeline completely, asserting that the U.S. will never need more than the current numbered purchased?
If the former, then this decision to limit purchases is arguably a good investment in our future. If the latter, then we’ve got a big problem brewing down the line, and we’d better stock up now before the plug is pulled.
Now neither of us are privy to the inner counsels in Washington, but given the history of past post-Vietnam Democratic administrations, such as Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, and the way they defunded military programs to raise funds for domestic programs, my gut and the evidence to date tells me that these new guys want to shut down the pipeline, since I’ve reading much more the arguments that we don’t need this plane.
You’re the first person with the argument you’ve presented, but you aren’t forming Administration policy.
Especially when I see who are the civilian people making the decision, and how many subscribe to to the anit-military 70s America as an imperialist power view, given that many come out of that era, which I had to live through too - so I recognize the language and phrases. Along with my hearing in the background the view that the “military-industrial complex” is responsible for starving social programs, and that if we cut them off at the knees, the “peace dividend” would be enought to bring a social utopia.
This puts in me in awkward spot, as how to sort out between what may be an optimal approach and the realities of the guiding philosophy of our Washington leaders - both in the Administration, as well as the same Congress people who railed against funding the military when they last held unrestrained power.
Essentially, it’s a matter of distrust. And in this post 9-11 world, that’s a bad spot to be in.
And Rightly So!
What Obama wants
LibRick Saturday, July 18th at 4:27PM EDT (link)or is perceived to want is irrelevant, given the long development time of successful weapons platforms. At best, he has 7 1/2 years. The F-22 is already in service and will remain so. Perfecting it will take more than a decade and it will likely serve for up to 30 years to come. (think F-15, B-52, etc.)
At some point within that time-frame, the cost of maintaining, upgrading, or replacing F-15’s will equal or exceed the cost of procuring F-22’s. Another administration will probably be making that decision.
In the mean time, if your concern, like everyone’s, is 911esque world terrorism, then I would submit that overwhelming numbers in cutting edge F-22’s won’t help. The F-22 is an air superiority platform and functions off the notion that the enemy has advanced air power. Osama and his minions don’t command an Air Force.
I don't think you quite responded to the dismantling concern
civil_truth Saturday, July 18th at 5:07PM EDT (link)It doesn’t matter if we perfect the F-22 in ten years if the production line has been dismantled such that no more planes can be built. That is something that this Administration can do: if they tell the manufacturer that there will never be any more purchases, I doubt the manufacturer can justify leaving all that porduction equipment idle hoping for a change of mind.
Not to mention, who will want to work in R&D if you’re never going to build any more planes. It becomes a self-fulfilling, mutually reinforcing process which cannot be reversed in a timely fashion by a future administration.
We see this going on with our nuclear weapon R&D, which multiple articles have documented will become virtually defunct in a few years as those with experience die off, as we refuse to fund weapons modernization. And since Obama has written that he wants to ban nuclear weapons, continued inaction may well serve his purpose by default - at least regarding the U.S.
(BTW, I was not connecting the F-22 to fight Osama; rather my “post 9-11″ reference was referring to a world outlook of complacency under Clinton particularly that 9-11 should have shaken us out of, but we seem to heading back to.)
And Rightly So!
LibRick...thanks for the response...
Aaron Gardner Saturday, July 18th at 3:50PM EDT (link)My take from it is 6 in one hand half a dozen in the other. Or the cost is the cost whether up front or incremental.
That said I concur with what Civil wrote above, you just never know if this will be the last purchase allowed when you have a Leftist Dem in charge of the purse strings.
Aaron’s Archive
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Generally speaking, prices go along a curve
aesthete Saturday, July 18th at 3:32PM EDT (link)i.e., either buying very little of something, or a lot of something, has increased costs per unit, and somewhere in between is the sweet spot where cost per unit is low. IDK what the price curve looks like for the F-22s, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the costs of making more F-22s (logistics, infrastructure, phasing out of older models, training, etc.) would outweigh the short-term benefits of having more of them. In my ignorance on this issue, I do think that we should have enough so that there will be existing infrastructure and pilots ready for if we ever needed to rapidly expand the program, but I don’t know enough about that sort of thing to tell you how much that “some” would be.
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A clear and thoughful post
LibRick Saturday, July 18th at 4:50PM EDT (link)What is enough? Right now, “some” looks like just under 200 aircraft. That’s a large enough number to do a thorough debug as well as eventually being the mature platform of choice for future military inventory. Is it enough? Who can say. Please keep in mind that the F-22 was designed to replace older aircraft and not to address any new threat. Those older aircraft are still in service and still up to the task at hand.
Please know, that the F-22 is already in the inventory. Based on past performance, it will get cheaper and better and eventually replace the F-15. It has unique and amazing design specs. It will be around for many decades.