Lincoln, Republican Challengers Tied in New Poll


Harry Reid Lost Two Democratic Senators Today

As Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas navigates the political minefield of health care reform, the two-term Democrat may be hewing a more conservative course in the wake of a new poll by Public Policy Polling which found her in a dead heat with three potential Republican challengers despite scant name recognition.

PPP, whose sampling of voters skewed Democratic, found that only 36% of respondents approve of Lincoln’s job performance, while 44% say they disprove. In March of this year, the same outfit found that Lincoln maintained an approval rating with a 5-point positive spread.

The three would-be GOP challengers polled included state Senator Gilbert Baker, Huckabee fundraiser Curtis Coleman and Harvard-educated lawyer and U.S. Army veteran Tom Cotton. Among them, Baker performed the best; however a majority of Arkansans—ranging from 78% to 83%—were unsure of their opinions on the three men.

“You couldn’t get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator,” said PPP’s Dean Debnam.

With Obama’s health care proposal fairing worse in the polls than former President Clinton’s defeated reforms of 1994, Lincoln must take into consideration the consequences of supporting the President’s contentious legislation in a state whose voters ten months ago gave Republican John McCain 59% of the vote.

What’s more, the hemorrhaging of Democratic support to wavering public opinion raises a serious dilemma for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and poses an acute challenge to the President’s legislative agenda, as Democrats today lost their filibuster-proof majority with the death of Senator Ted Kennedy.

Reid must accept the political reality that Lincoln, who previously bucked party leadership on the cap-and-trade legislation designed to reduce carbon emissions and the reauthorization of banking infusion, may be the next casualty in the polarized health care debate.

UPDATE: Republican Party of Arkansas Chairman Doyle Webb responds:

“It’s obvious that Sen. Lincoln is vulnerable, and her approval rating of just 36% reflects the fact that she no longer represents the values of Arkansans.  It’s clear the people of Arkansas reject the liberal agenda she supports in Washington D.C.  Recent health care town halls have shown us that Arkansans want leaders who protect their interests, not control their lives.”

Cross-posted at Skepticians.com.

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The View From Arkansas

Spartan4Life (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 2:21PM EST (link)

I live here in Northwest Arkansas, the home of Walmart. It is a strange state politically. While very conservative, both fiscally and socially(our county is dry, for example), most of our elected officials are Dems, including the Gov, both Senators, and 3 of 4 house members. Last bastion of the Dixiecrats, I guess.

In any case, the scuttlebutt here seems to be that Bob Johnson, the term limited president pro tem of the State Senate is mulling a primary challenge to Lincoln. He would run to her right, portraying her as too close to Reid/Obama. The feeling is that he would be a stronger general election candidate and that since the Arkansas GOP is a little discombobulated that he would have a good chance of holding the seat. This strategy has been floated in multiple places in the press this week so I am thinking a challenge to Lincoln is likely.

Should be a fun one to watch.

Baker

DerKrieger (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 8:38PM EST (link)

I saw Gilbert Baker speak at the June Benton County GOP meeting. So far he’s my personal top pick.

BTW- I work at WM and live in Bella Vista.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690

 
 

Arkansas

Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 2:44PM EST (link)

Spartan 4,

What is your view as to who would be the strongest R in the race and is he a solid conservative. One would think that 2010 should be an excellent year to field a conservative from a state like Arkansas which didn’t even vote for Obama at the hight of his popularity.

I Would Think Coleman

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 2:51PM EST (link)

would be formidable if he could get Huckabee’s machine behind him.

Huckabee knows a couple in the race and hasnt endorsed anyone, but he is very close to Coleman.

Coleman

Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 3:04PM EST (link)

Do you know what his politics are?

Coleman Seems Solid

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 3:10PM EST (link)

I’m not from that area, but checked him when he announced. He has a site.

http://www.curtiscoleman.com/

 
 
 

Not Familiar Yet To Say

Spartan4Life (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 3:04PM EST (link)

We have only been here less than two years and I don’t know these candidates well enough. I will pay attention and report back on how things are playing out.

Up here in Benton County it is staunchly Republican. We probably have 12-15% of the state’s population and I think McCain beat Obama here 67-33. I would think whichever candidate takes hold in Northwest Arkansas will be the strongest statewide, also.

Huckabee is an interesting figure here. Not as popular here as he is in other parts of the country. I think as a GOP governor in a Dem state he got raked over the coals pretty good in the media and some of it stuck. Think Palinized.

 
 

Huckabee Needs to Run

proudgop (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 10:16PM EST (link)

Huckabee should really run here

He could be leader in US Senate and Lincoln looks very vulnerable

Not so sure he's all that in Arkansas

SteveLA (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 10:22PM EST (link)

proudgop

I’ve never seen a lot of commentary here on RS or other places about how Hucka is seen in Arkansas so it’s not clear if he has a base in his home state. Maybe someone who lives ether in Ark or surrounding can comment.

______________________________________

Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests

 

I wouldn't hate Huck for Senate

aesthete (Diary) Wednesday, August 26th at 11:34PM EST (link)

(As to the “leader” part, I’m not so sure about that, but another seat in the Senate would be fine.)

Still, he, infuriatingly, hasn’t expressed any interest in running for the seat, so hopefully he’ll do the next best thing and campaign for the Rep. in the general (assuming he’s well-liked there, of course).

The act of defending any of the cardinal virtues has today all the exhilaration of a vice – G.K. Chesterton

 
 

Game on! Time to clean house & senate!

illinois (Diary) Thursday, August 27th at 3:03AM EST (link)

It took 8 years, a couple wars, far left wing media, zealots, jolly-wood and Chicago thuggery shaking down banks to contrive a perfect storm to elect Barry and his goons. Recall the 2000 election—look at the animosity that W came in with. And, it’s taken 7 months of Barry Barry Barry Barry 24/7 world-wide——and look what he’s done for conservatives. Indeed, Barry is a savior and miracle worker! Thank you dear leader Barry!

Good old Barry has raised the dead (near dead and demoralized conservatives) and created a ground swell of regular ordinary people getting off their couches to vote him and his goons out. The dear leader Barry has totally and completely over done himself—–and convinced people like my 82 year old mother in law, a rabid left wing life long Dem and my other WI Dem in-laws—–and he has miraculously convinced them what a left wing loon he and his goons are. Last fall my mother in law and in-laws were ranting and raving about getting rid of the evil Bush!!! I tried to tell them about our former Illinoisssss senator dear Barry—-but they wouldn’t have any of it. But, Barry and his left wing Dems performed a miracle that I never dreamed could happen. Last weekend talking with my WI in-laws—-they’re scared out of their minds about our dear leader Barry—–they’re watching tv and paying attention——and they’re wanting to get rid of Barry and his Dems. A miracle in WI has occurred!!! Somebody needs to tell the Vatican! As for Barry bussing his goons to events now—–they’re paying attention and they get it about what’s going on. When Feingold recently said he didn’t think they would get a bill this year—and he’s never seen such intensity in his career——–those are my life long Dem inlaws that Barry has miraculously transformed into voting Repubs. Right on Barry!!! Keep at it!! for the first time in my adult life—–I’m proud of my former Illinoissssss senator Barry!!!!

 

Arkansas is Ready for an Independent

zeus Wednesday, September 2nd at 1:45AM EST (link)

Blanche Lincoln is trying to hang on to her seat and is in such an awkward spot. Her only saving grace is to vote for corporate America interests because they give her the money. With that she hopes she can stem the tide of dissatisfied Arkansans across the state. So far she may be facing a primary challenger and the survivor of the 12 candidates running as the Republican Candidate. They have shown their true colors, by racist comments, elitism and infighting. Not to mention a lack of funding. The winner of that race will join Lincoln, a to be named Green Party Candidate and the Independent Candidate Trevor Drown. With so many independents unhappy in Arkansas, and favoring Drown, a former Green Beret, known as a common man for the people, it will be difficult for Lincoln to spend her way back to Washington. Her only saving grace at this point is to continue to pork up on the contributions and try and spin some kind of story that she really cares for Arkansas. However, there is a point where even too much money becomes obscene and people realize she is bought and paid for. That point is rapidly approaching.