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Early 2012 Posturing: The Money Game; UPDATE

A kinder, gentler year for Republicans, 2009 witnessed the flipping of two governorships–one in the newly-designated purple commonwealth of Virginia–and the Senate seat long-held by the late Ted Kennedy. The prospective 2012 Republican contenders, too, have capitalized on the base’s renewed vigor, with early front-runners pulling in–and dolling out–millions for their political action committees.

Mitt Romney’s Free and Strong political action committee raised just shy of $3 million and contributed $120,000 to Republican state and federal candidates in 2009, according to a year-end finance report released Friday by the group.

Handicapped by late entry, Tim Pawlenty’s group, Freedom First PAC, raised only $1.28 million last year. Pawlenty aides note, however, the committee was organized in October and fundraising totals account only for the fourth quarter, whereas Romney’s committee has been operating all year.

In the fourth quarter, Pawlenty transferred $395,000* to Republican candidates — a figure more than double what Romney’s PAC contributed over the entire year.

Fox News Channel personality Mike Huckabee’s Huck PAC performed far worse than expected, reporting Saturday the group raised a meager $800,000. The year-end finance release failed to mention how much, or little, the committee had contributed to GOP candidates and causes, but according to OpenSecrets.org, the group had contributed only $10,000 by January 10, 2010.

Unlike the committees of Huckabee’s likely rivals, Huck PAC’s value is found not in its war chest, but in its expansive and ever-growing network of volunteers, who made more than 60,000 voter contacts for PAC-endorsed candidates, according to the committee.

While PAC expenditures are regarded by would-be nominees as a necessary investment in their eventual campaign, such as the situation is for Pawlenty and Romney, Huckabee’s early pockets are surprisingly shallow, which will inhibit his ability to curry favor with party faithful.

PAC operatives for each committee will argue the metrics for judging each committee differ, but the ultimate arbiter in politics is cold, hard cash; who has it, who knows how to get more of it, and who shares it will win the popularity contest we have come to know as the presidential nominating process. On this count, Pawlenty is, hands down, the front-runner.

UPDATE: An informed reader emails to say I have conflated Pawlenty’s operating expenditures with his political disbursements, noting that the Minnesota Governor only contributed $16,800 to federal candidates in 2009.

Presently, it’s unclear if that figure accounts for monies contributed to state candidates, state Republican parties and GOP causes. It is worth noting, though, that of Romney’s $120,000 in contributions, 56% went to state candidates, parties and causes, so a similar trend may exist in Pawlenty’s reporting.

I have requested clarification from a Pawlenty aide and will update further when appropriate.

UPDATED II :P awlenty aides do not dispute the $16k figure, but hasten to point out that the committee was formed in late in 2009 with a balance of 0.

While the PAC has already contributed (significantly less) to many of the same candidates as Romney, including Doug Hoffman, Rob Portman, Scott Brown, and the Minnesota Republican Congressional delegation, they intend “to support many other candidates as we get into election season this year.”

Apart from those candidates endorsed and supported by the committee, aides offered this interesting caveat: Pawlenty headlined numerous Republican fundraisers for candidates and committees — none of which would be represented in the report. While his team asked supporters to donate directly to Brown’s campaign, TPaw himself held events for the Iowa, South Dakota, Michigan and Ohio state Republican parties.

Cross-posted to Skepticians.com.

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COMMENTS

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    …Romney, Pawlenty (my governor), and Huckabee listed as the top three presidential hopefuls for the GOP does not inspire confidence. I’m sorry.

    • qsclues

      As a fellow Minnesotan, I’ll echo that sentiment. That being said, at this rate, Obama could lose to a head of lettuce in 2012. I’d simply like it to be a very conservative head of lettuce.

    • edwlstr

      these guys were the “top three”? Sounds like the same old NRSC has-been or never-was gallery. Romney maybe (for his economic acumen) but when Hucklebuck should have dropped out, he stayed on as a spoiler for McCain ( a Charlie Crist pick), as a result, guess who’s the president? Pawlenty shifted hard to the right after he decided to run, I don’t like that. Sounds like he’s not a true conservative. Better than all this 2012 speculation? Maybe we should concentrate on 2010 congressional races and emasculate Obama with heavy wins in both houses. That will hold him in place until we can send him back to Kenya in 2012….One thing is for certain, if the NRSC likes him he’s probably a RINO.

  • sharonmcp

    I’d feel a bit easier if the list included the name of Mike Pence or Jim DeMint.

    • bs61

      I agree – I’m tired of the same old recycled republicans, it’s time for a change! Allen West is great – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP2p91dvm6M

  • IJB
    • acat

      The proto-candidates are trying to both attract big backers and build “working relationships” with other influential pols at this point – they’re not really talking to us, and not to Joe Sixpack – other than in a “any press is good press” way.

      I don’t have a strong objection to any of ‘em, although if this is the best the GOP can do, it’s .. really not good… and I suspect that part of the reason these guys are getting so far ahead of the cycle is because they know they could be picked off by a strong candidate later on.

      IMO, the best news out of the bunch is that Pawlenty’s PAC is backing other candidates – that’s the kind of thing that I like to see – favor-trading or not it’s building the team.

      Mew

  • Scope

    and, you can consider Pawlenty a recycled, as, he was at one time considered a front runner for McCain as VP. His PAC bombed, as he did as any kind of exciting candidate. You can’t implant fire in the belly, and, Pawlenty just doesn’t have it. Huckabee couldn’t raise money the last time, and, he can’t raise money this time either. I guess Romney’s wife will not allow him to bankrupt the family in order to buy the presidency. By 2012, the field will have totally changed, and, that’s a good thing.

    • Mike

      …Romney is worth around a quarter of a billion dollars, and raised most of his money last time. There’s very little chance that he’ll actually bankrupt his family :D

      I’d like to see if Pence could transition successfully into a national candidate, but that doesn’t happen with House members too often. DeMint is only attractive to us, unfortunately; and he’s incredibly valuable to us where he is — I hope, for those reasons, he doesn’t run. My favorite for a dark horse? Senator John Thune.

      Of course, we have the 2010 elections to get through first, and then assess where we are, from a partisan standpoint. So let’s focus on that, first.

    • 6eorge Jetson

      before the special election?

      We’ve never seen the Tea Party force/influence before. Methinks someone presently in office that champions small government will emerge to win the nomination and presidency. Someone presently in a position like Jim DeMint or Mike Pence.

  • Credo

    I know it’s early, but what about Bob McDonnell?

    • varia

      I think he would be a great candidate too, but if he were to run, he’d have to start at least by the end of this year, which is right in the middle of his first and only term..

      Though he was technically a lame duck since the day he stepped into the Gov mansion, I think that if he commits his time to making VA a better place, he will be in a great position to run for either the senate in 2014 (Against Fmr. Gov. Warner) or for president in 2016.

      Running right in the middle of his term I would think would not sit well with the voters and kind of give Dems ammo to criticize him similar to Palin (“He’s just like Palin in cutting and running in the middle of his term, he didn’t fulfill his promise to voters!”)

      Then again, a certain ND Gov. recently announced his candidacy for the Senate.

      Don’t get me wring, my preferred ticket right now would be Thune/McDonnell or vice-versa. In fact, having any conservative Gov. at the top of the ticket would contrast with Obama’s lack of experience as an executive and be a great winning point for us.

      • Scope

        and the Democrats are already accusing him of using his position as Governor, and the Virginia taxpayers money, to run his campaign for president. There is no question the Dems fear him, and they should. His landslide win included Repubs, Independents and some Dems. A bill had already passed in VA, shortly after the federal ban was lifted in the Bush admin, to sell leases for off shore drilling starting in 2011. Kaine sent a letter to Salazar to delay the sale. McDonnell recently sent his own letter asking not to delay the sale, as the state already has some major oil companies interested in purchasing the leases, has completed the studies to determine how much oil and gas is there, and the process was on schedule. Salazar told McDonnell he would get back to him with an answer. Then Salazar made a public announcement that he was adding more restrictions, and was going to make it harder to accomplish. In Obama’s SOTU address he said something about expanding drilling in the US. Who’s lying? McDonnell must be stopped from being the Gov of the first east coast state to accomplish drilling. If he accomplished that, he would shoot right to the top of the Republican presidential list, and, Obama can’t have that. I think that the only reason Obama even brought it up in his SOTU lecture was because he knew McDonnell was doing the Republican counter speech.

      • Credo

        I look around at all the candidates being offered (Romney Pawlenty Huckabee) and they are less than impressive. I agree it’s way too early in his term of office to seriously speculate. He ran a masterful campaign in Virginia and I hope he continues this in actually governing. He actually has Warner and Webb joining him in allowing oil exploration off the Virginia coast.

        For whatever it’s worth, McDonnell has far more real experience than the current occupant.

        I’d like to see him take on Warner if that’s in his plans. It may not be out of the realm of possibility to see him as the VP candidate – that generally takes only a 3 month commitment.

  • Illinicon

    Money raised: $ 732,767
    Money spent: $276,200
    Money given to candidates: $ 10,000 (5 K to McCain and Murkowski)

    Is it usual for a PAC to spend that much on adminstrative costs? Given the buzz surrounding her since the elections I am a bit surprised she hasnt raised more.

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00458588&cycle=2010

    • Illinicon

      the last report was the PAC gave was on June 30, 2009, but still if the second-half fund raising matched the first then she still only raised only about 20k more than Pawlenty.

  • republicants

    Her totals are very solid considering how little fundraising she has done compared to Pawlenty and Romney. I look for her to step up the fundraising bigtime now that she has a gig on FoxNews. Newt is rolling in PAC Money.
    She has done pretty well for little effort so far. Given Huckabee’s poor fundraising she is the likely favorite to win Iowa. Romney is not the answer and never will be. I expect Bob McDonnelll to battle Palin, Pawlenty, and possibly Thune for the nomination. Newt will probably make a run. At this stage I for anyone other than Romney. Mike Pence is fantastic and so are Rubio and Ryan. Rubio will be president someday.

  • Tbone

    flats. Everytime she dances with these guys, they look short.

  • Section9

    Big Time.

    I mean, as night follows day.

  • mathews

    but NO mention by Red State??

    • http://www.skepticians.com James Richardson

      When I authored the post. She was not intentionally left out; candidates/PACs report these figures on their own time, some sooner than others.

  • Carol Tarasewicz

    I agree it is too early and we need new candidates, not recycled from 2008. I don’t see how Huckabee can be a candidate for us, he is a RINO from Hope. I do not like him one bit, he was a liberal governor and pardoned at least two that went on to kill again. How many more could there be?

  • http://rgeorgedunn.blogspot.com R. George Dunn

    Romney was the choice of the nationalist 2005 RNC. When we the people said no, up steps Michael Steele, hoping to regain the RINO Nationalist power for President by attending to the name Pawlenty. Both are getting money from the corporates and leading in funding.

    Gov Huckabee nearly won the 2008 primary had it not been for the hatchet job of lies by Fred Thompson in the SC Debate. Mike spent 1/10th that amount of some in the race and did so well.

    It is way too early to be wasting energy on 2012 when 2010 is so vitally important to the Quest. Let us stop squabbling and get back to saving our Constitution. Jobs will be returned by FairTax please.

  • gazinya

    I saw a video clip of Mich. Congressman. His name is Thad McCotter. It was the first time I had seen or heard of him. He sounded like the type of person we need to re-fill our Right Wing Party with. He is a Repuliban, duh, and he is conservative. He spoke to the truth that abidding by the Constitution would have eleminated many of our problems and by returning to the Constitution would solve many of our political and economical problems. These are the people I would like to see. Uncompromising on principle and aware that a moral government is a better government.

    Off topic but there must be many people like me who are way over tired of the commercials that suggest ‘This is the time to buy gold.’ Whille I’m out buying a couple of pounds of it, I can drop it in the trunk of my Royce. Sheesh.

  • joebgardener

    I think he would have crushed O in the debates and quite possibly eeked out a narrow win in the general.

    He offers the best combination of executive experience and real world fiscal acumen. I still don’t see a stronger candidate in the GOP.

    Romney/Daniels 2012!!

  • morstar150

    I keep hearing comments about Mitt Romney and 2008, and who we need in 2012. That is crazy! 2008 is gone. There are so many reasons why the Republicans didn’t win including there own ineptitude. All of these Republican come lately’s are poping up simply because true Americans are now standing up. The revolution is happening now! Look for what you can do now, not two years from now.

    Does anybody kow that there is a special congressional election primary about to take place in two days?

    Stop getting hung up on the past, and start getting involved in the now. The future will take care of itself.

  • edwlstr

    Nov. 2, 2010 is Emasculate Obama Day. EOD . Scott was just sharpening the blade in Massachusetts. And next November the impatient blade will start it’s tiny but important work.

    • dudette

      Thanks for the laugh edwlstr

  • kuksool

    For 2012, I think its best if we go with a clean slate. No retreads. No Huckabee, no Romney, no Fred, no Rudy, and no Sarah.

  • kuksool

    For 2012, I think its best if we go with a clean slate. No retreads. No Huckabee, no Romney, no Fred, no Rudy, and no Sarah.

    • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

      … or two time loser and “California Squish/Schweiker lover” Reagan would have been excluded.