The AP and CNN have called Arizona for Donald Trump, as expected. Arizona is the third largest of the winner-take-all states, so it definitely hurts for the whole pile of 58 delegates to go into Trump’s column. However, it looks like there might still be some hope from tonight.
First, although it’s far from a foregone conclusion at this point, it looks highly likely that Trump will still not clear 50% in tonight’s returns. Still. Three weeks after Super Tuesday and he still hasn’t cracked 50% once. This means that #NeverTrump is here to stay, whether he likes it or not.
Second, it looks like the non-Trump votes of Cruz and Kasich might top Trump combined – even though early voting began when Rubio was still a candidate. This is significant. If Kasich somehow regains sanity or meets with an unfortunate accident of some sort, there is still time for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce. I think it is safe to assume by now that anyone who is not yet with Trump is highly resistant to joining him ever.
Also, turnout was astronomically high in Arizona. While Trump has been turning out his own horde of voters, Cruz and Kasich were able to tap into an equivalent anti-Trump sentiment, and turnout those voters.