Here is my Monday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt. New Hampshire – BO 52.8 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.2; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.2 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.9 and JM 45.1. Obama wins New Hampshire. Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 43.7; | Read More »
Here is a Sunday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt. New Hampshire – BO 52.7 and JM 42.0; Undecideds 5.3; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 3.3 will break 2/1 for JM. Prediction given these assumptions: BO 52.8 and JM 45.2. Obama wins New Hampshire. Pennsylvania – BO 51.3 and JM 44.0; | Read More »
Here is a Thursday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt. Pennsylvania – BO 52.3 and JM 42.8; Undecideds 4.9; BO will overpoll by 1 pt.; Undecideds, less 2.0, 2.9 will break 5/7 for JM and 2/7 for BO – based on 2008 Democratic Primary Performance. Prediction given these assumptions: JM – 45.8 BO 52.2 Ohio | Read More »
With just more than two weeks left before the November 4th presidential elections, political junkies are just entering their favorite time of year. The constant checks of the various polls, taken state by state, and website after website offering each of us an opportunity to create our own electoral map — establishing the permutations under which our candidate will reach that all-important 270 electoral votes. | Read More »
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