Suffolk University’s Political Research Center released its latest survey in the New Jersey Governor’s race today, showing Governor Jon Corzine holding a commanding 9-point lead over Republican challenger Christopher Christie, 42-33 percent. Independent Chris Daggett received 7 percent in the poll.
The result caused a minor stir on the Internet. A very minor stir, as even a cursory examination of the internals of this poll shows that it is deeply flawed, internally contradictory, and not at all reflective of the state of the race in the Garden State.
All polls produce outliers, and polling outfits occasionally get a bad sample. But a result this bad this late should never have been released, if Suffolk University wanted to maintain any semblance of credibility. The fact that it was released leads one to believe that the purpose of the survey was not to predict the outcome in the governor’s race, but to influence it.
Let’s start with the sample. Suffolk surveyed 400 New Jersey residents, 360 of whom said they were likely to vote in the governor’s race. The small sample size leads to a relatively high margin of error of 5.5 percentage points. Worse, however, is the make-up of the sample. Just 83 total respondents out of 400 (21%) identified themselves as Republicans versus 135 respondents (34%) that said they were Democrats. Critically, as we’ll see later, independents made up the lion’s share of the respondents with 46 percent.
There are more independents in New Jersey’s electorate than affiliates of the two major parties. But the 13-point split between Democrats and Republicans is far of the mark. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a few hundred thousand. But the split in New Jersey is much closer to 32-28-40 than this poll’s massively skewed result. It’s no wonder, then, that an overly-Democratic sample would produce an overly-Democratic result. But digging further into the cross tabs reveals a sample that should be full of Christie voters.
Two-thirds say that the state is off on the wrong track, and 32 percent list either taxes in general or property taxes specifically as their most important issue. Another 26 percent list jobs or the economy as the number one issue. Still another 15 percent list either corruption or the budget as their biggest concern. All of these are themes that the Christie campaign has been using to hammer away at Corzine for almost two full months. Taken together, just under three-fourths (74%) of respondents say that they are voting on the basis of one of Chrisite’s issues, yet the poll directors think this jibes with a Corzine win.
How can this be? This sample is very confused about what it is going to do next Tuesday. Seventy-two percent say their mind is made up about how they will vote, versus 24 percent who say they could change their mind. But 55 percent say that they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent have a favorable view of President Obama, but a third say that Obama’s endorsement of Corzine makes them less likely to vote for him. Among the independents, Christie is winning by 5 points, while 55 percent remain undecided. There may be a story in these results, but it is certainly not one that gives any high degree of confidence that Corzine is winning this race, let alone blowing Christie away.
That begs the question, why would Suffolk release this poll with all of its obvious problems? It’s difficult to imagine that the polling director looked at these scatter shot results and thought this was an accurate appraisal of the state of the race. A polling director concerned about the reputation of his center might have thought twice about releasing this data this close to an election, when there is a high degree that people will remember just how wrong it is likely to be.
On the ground in New Jersey, Daggett’s poor performance in the final two debates has stopped his campaign dead in the water. Republicans are quietly encouraged that his campaign peaked too soon, and they expect a good percentage of his voters to come over to Christie, or stay home.
Meanwhile, Corzine’s “momentum” – which was always really a result of Daggett’s rise, not a Corzine comeback – has been completely stopped by the corruption conviction of former Bergen County Democratic Party chair Joseph Ferrirero. Bergen is the wealthiest and most populous county in the state, and Christie has been hitting it hard, trying to reclaim the once Republican stronghold. Ferriero’s conviction plays right into the Christie campaign’s hands.
Make no mistake, next week’s election will be close. Statewide Republicans don’t win very often in New Jersey, and it is something of a surprise that Christie is this close this late. But there are no moral victories. Having been in the lead most of the summer, Republicans want a win in New Jersey to go along with an expected victory in Virginia’s governor’s race.
To get it, Republicans will need a high turnout among their base, a lower-than-normal turnout among Democrats, and late-deciders and independents to break Christie’s way. All of this is well within reach, and much of it is likely given Corzine’s position in reputable polls. Suffolk latest effort scratches it off that list.

Suffolk
proudgop Monday, October 26th at 9:54PM EDT (link)Suffolk poster is bought and paid for by Corzine
There is new PPP poll tomorrow and supposedly Daggett’s favorable numbers are going down
NJ deserves its fate
DerKrieger Monday, October 26th at 9:56PM EDT (link)…if it reelects Corzine. All remaining productive citizens need to pack their bags and decamp to friendlier states.
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” - Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence (OBAMACARE – mine), the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Daggett's polling numbers recently may have been inflated...
joshputnam Monday, October 26th at 10:30PM EDT (link)…by his position as the only alternative to Corzine and Christie in many of these polls. The one good thing about this poll is that we had more of a simulated ballot; all 12 candidates on the ballot were named. As a result, Daggett lost his position as the only (polling) alternative to the two major party candidates.
The question: Does that disaffected support go to any of the several other candidates or does it come back to either Corzine or Christie?
More at Fronloading HQ.
An interesting story on Daggett
Scope Tuesday, October 27th at 12:27PM EDT (link)From NRO online today, in The Campaign section- (Sorry, I can’t link only this story, so here’s the whole thing)
Chris Daggett Knows the Score
New Jersey independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett is not a stupid man.
He can read a poll, and he has to know that New Jersey governor Jon Corzine’s numbers have barely changed at all since Daggett’s numbers started rising in the race. He knows that Republican Chris Christie has lost a considerable lead. He knows that the smallest percentage he could get and still win the race is about 34 percent (and then he has to hope each rival gets about 33 percent).
He knows that the highest he’s been at is 20 percent, and he’s been at 7, 13, 19, 11 and 7 percent recently. He knows his name will be hard to find on several counties’ ballots. He knows that the Phillies-Yankees World Series is perfect for keeping residents’ minds off politics, and news coverage at least partially focused elsewhere.
He knows that you don’t see candidates jumping 14 or 20 or 25 points in the final week. He knows he doesn’t have the money of H. Ross Perot or the name recognition of Jesse Ventura. Thus, he knows he’s not going to win. And he knows that his most likely impact on the race is to ensure another four years of Governor Corzine.
Chris Daggett “worked” for Jon Corzine by serving on a state commission; the position was unpaid. Daggett is now saying that he wouldn’t turn down a job offer from either rival if either one won, but he knows Chris Christie will never offer him so much as a piece of gum.
He knows Jon Corzine throws around money like it’s water to help secure his political aspirations.
Is Chris Daggett explicitly helping out Jon Corzine or fishing for a job in Corzine’s second term? No, of course not. But he’s not a stupid man.
I’d also note that twice, in 24 hours, I’ve heard a voice on the radio mentioning Daggett as a “more conservative” alternative to Christie, which just doesn’t hold water. (The first was Mark Davis sitting in for Rush, the other was Tim Farley on XM POTUS Morning Briefing.)
Yes, Daggett wants to reduce property taxes — heavily focusing on those most-likely-to-vote senior citizens — but he would offset that lost revenue by extend the existing 7 percent sales tax to a wide range of personal, professional, and household services, including services provided to individuals by professionals such as lawyers, accountants, and architects. This is what has the RGA hitting Daggett for wanting to tax your haircut and dry cleaning. In a Creigh Deedsian manner, Daggett’s spokesman says he would only increase highway tolls “if no other viable options are found.”
His plan for imposing a cap on municipal, county, and school-district budgets based on the Consumer Price Index is a really intriguing idea that would almost certainly run into fierce opposition in the state legislature. A Republican governor might have a shot of twisting enough arms to do this; the same plan from an independent with no allies in either party will be DOA.
Sadly, this is the case for a lot of Daggett’s agenda items — they’re not bad ideas, but they’re pipe dreams without similarly reform-minded state legislators. Do you think Daggett will have more pull with Democrats than the teachers’ unions when it comes to “replacing lifetime tenure with five-year renewable performance based contracts, with merit pay opportunities, both for new hires and for teachers who do not currently hold tenure”?
My favorite proposal is Daggett’s happy dream of “abolishing pensions and health-care benefits for part-time legislators, aides and political appointees.” That would be swell, but you would be trying to persuade the state legislature to cut their own benefits and pensions.
In a law that almost seemed aimed at Corzine, Daggett wants to “impose a ‘luxury tax’ on political candidates who spend more than twice the public financing limit in gubernatorial elections, with 33 percent of the excess to be shared among rival candidates in proportion to the amount of money they have raised.” In other words, if you spend too much money, you have to give a portion to your rivals. I’m not sure about the constitutionality of that, but the point is moot until you have a state legislature that is even bothered by the Corzines of the world throwing around lots of money. Right now, Democrats hold moderately healthy majorities in both chambers, and they think Corzine’s campaign spending is hunky-dory.
The passion of Daggett’s supporters doesn’t change the fact that the winner on Election Night will have a last name that starts with “C.” Daggett’s efforts are ensuring that it’s Corzine . . . and he doesn’t seem all that bothered by that scenario.
10/27 09:54 AM Share
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So, if all of the above is true, it appears that Daggett is only in the race to help Corzine. He’s running on policies that may sound fiscally responsible such as “Lowering property taxes” or “putting a cap on school budgets” or “abolishing benefits for part-time legislators” but, in doing so he hopes to pull votes from Christie. As everyone knows, when you have spoilers in a race, it always hurts Republicans. Corzine is without doubt one of the most corrupt politicians, and, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that he himself set up and funded the Daggett campaign.
My Guess Is That Most Daggett Voters Will See Through This And Ultimately Go To Christie (nt)
IJB Tuesday, October 27th at 12:54PM EDT (link)My wife and I...
Rightshift Monday, October 26th at 10:33PM EDT (link)… live in a beautiful part of the state of NJ… but…
we’re already looking at houses in Texas… I don’t think the dichotomy could be any wider… I’ve personally met Jon Corzine… likeable guy… but anyone that can be so bent philosophically should be occupying a room at Greystone Park… if you’re not sure what that is see here.
“Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim - when he defends himself - as a criminal.” — Frederic Bastiat
Well have you decided on a house down here in Texas?
Richard Mullins Monday, October 26th at 11:27PM EDT (link)if You still undecided, I’ll put a bug in the ear of real estate office down the road to see about any houses here in Spring(close to Houston, but with more trees than people).
For more on my views, go my wordpress site:
http://rpmullins.wordpress.com
For more on Happy jet airlines, go here:
http://happyjetairlines.wordpress.com
For a good dose of satire go here:
http://thesquash.wordpress.com
For more of I like to do a lot:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42008626@N03
Not yet...
Rightshift Tuesday, October 27th at 8:37AM EDT (link).. we’re going to make a trip down for a few days and check Dallas and San Antonio…
… but Houston isn’t out of the question either
Your resource would come in handy, Thank you! 
“Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim - when he defends himself - as a criminal.” — Frederic Bastiat
Boston Based
Swamp_Yankee Monday, October 26th at 10:33PM EDT (link)Suffolk is a university based in the very heart of Boston. The poll is usually legit, but staffed by poli-sci students. Like Quinnipiac, they are decent on local races and the the nail on the hed once in a while.
But I think it may be subtle push polling combined with resondents telling the pollster-students what they want to hear. Sometimes something as simple as an inflection or an accent to sway a response.
Not Dead Yet!
9 points? Good!
Tbone Monday, October 26th at 10:37PM EDT (link)This should allow lazyass Democrat voters to stay home.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
stay home ... whether that means a house or a graveyard
bk Tuesday, October 27th at 12:32PM EDT (link)They don’t need all the dead voters if Corzine’s going to win without cheating.
Polls as rigged political tools
mfarmer Monday, October 26th at 11:08PM EDT (link)It’s becoming increasingly difficult to trust any polls — they’ve become partisan tools and practically useless.
Hope It's An Outlier
DavidSage Monday, October 26th at 11:17PM EDT (link)My guess is whatever Daggett is polling at will be cut in half when the ballots are actually cast, and most of those votes will probably go for Christie.
Third party candidacies usually collapse as people don’t like voting for someone they know has no chance of winning, and clearly, the state dislikes Corzine with his 30% approval ratings. Daggett really has no innovative ideas or issues, his only claim to fame is that he’s an independent. The only reason the media has promoted him so much is they know his candidacy hurts the Republican. I’m sure he’ll get around 5%, but after you’ve sliced that up it’s probably about a 1-2% net gain for Corzine.
Still, I could see Daggett bleeding off just enough to put Corzine over the top. I would like to see some more polling, but usually when I see people complaining about how accurate the polls are, it means the campaign is losing.
If Republicans sweep both New Jersey and Virginia though, it’s going to set off a political earthquake in Washington.
Not only that
redtillimdead Tuesday, October 27th at 12:03AM EDT (link)The big earthquake will come when Doug Hoffman wins NY-23. No, scratch that. When Hoffman wins, it will set of a tsunami, earthquake, volcano, and hurricane in Washington
Nancy Pelosi can kiss my asstroturf.
Perhaps the Suffolk U poll only included their buddy professors at NJ colleges? <nt>
6eorge Jetson Tuesday, October 27th at 12:03AM EDT (link)nt
I was convincing myself
JoeG Tuesday, October 27th at 1:05AM EDT (link)No way could this country vote Obama in over whatshisname and the polls must be wrong. Sadly I was wrong.
I sure hope this isn’t a repeat.
Last Stand for NJ Conservatives
treeofliberty Tuesday, October 27th at 7:03AM EDT (link)This is the sense I’m getting from so many people I know in real life and comments over the web.
The feeling and one in which I share, is that if the GOP can’t win this year, with all the tea party momentum, the unpopularity of Corzine, unemployment at 10%, in an off-year election which typically favors Republicans if all this can’t result in a GOP victory I throw up my hands and leave the state to those with more patience than myself.
If Corzine wins: I’ll be fully prepared to put New Jersey along with Massachusetts and California as most liberal/worst run states in the union and I never thought I’d be saying that.
I sadly agree...
Rightshift Tuesday, October 27th at 9:03AM EDT (link)The thing about NJ is that the most populace county is Bergen which lies right across the river from upper Manhattan, and has been solidly Republican since I was a wee tike! Roughly 75%, so its a stronghold.
Its the only county in NJ that still has “Blue” laws, meaning no businesses are allowed open on a Sunday with certain exceptions. (Parents had a bakery so Sunday morning pastries and fresh coffee MMMMM!!! But I digress), the matter comes up for referendum every so often to repeal the Blue laws and it gets voted down resoundingly. People still believe in honoring the Lord’s day of rest.
Unfortunately, the work ethic found in Bergen County doesn’t translate to the surrounding counties or the rest of the state, too many people demanding freebies from the state (The Freeloaders), and an Assembly (The Looters) all to willing to capitulate at the expense of the working people & small business (The Producers… WHERE is John Galt?)! People wonder why the cost of living is so damn high here, you need go no farther than the cesspools known as Newark, NJ, Camden, Atlantic City, and their outlying counties.
If the exodus figures are any indication, New Jersey has a net loss of 450,000 people in the last few years (5 I think), Thats equivalent to the cities of Jersey City, and Newark getting up and leaving en masse! (New York State had a net loss of 1million in the last 10 years)
A poll of people under the age of 50 stated that nearly half (49%) would leave the state if they had the means. Not too mention the nanny state mentality is out of control! So the only thing carrying the state Republican wise in any real strength is Bergen County out of 21 counties in the state. The rest appear to be either split in blue favor or are heavily blue.
Its only going to get worse, It appears that more people are recipients of various forms of public dole in NJ, and the people providing it are shrinking… sooner or later, its going to collapse under its own weight, we probably should thank Corzine, he just hastened the inevitable demise by about 3 decades sooner.
I’m a gun owner in this state, and I’ve decided its time to Jet… I don’t want the boys in peaked hats and french blue uniforms banging on my door saying “Hand ‘em over!” … Funny… I just remembered my grandfather in Germany in 1939, (A story my mother told me)… The boys in Brown showed up on his doorstep making the same statement, only his were “lost” in a field somewhere in a box wrapped in burlap and oil… something about “over his dead body”… the german translation is vague LOL…. not too mentiong the uniforms look strikingly similar… coincidence? LOL
“Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Sometimes the law places the whole apparatus of judges, police, prisons and gendarmes at the service of the plunderers, and treats the victim - when he defends himself - as a criminal.” — Frederic Bastiat
that sounds ominous
bk Tuesday, October 27th at 12:34PM EDT (link)If NJ has a net loss of nearly half a million even after taking into account “rich” people who have fled NY, that sounds pretty severe.
On Bergen
Mark Impomeni Tuesday, October 27th at 8:16PM EDT (link)I have lived in Bergen County my entire life. While you are right that it is the most populous county in the state, it it no longer a Republican stronghold. The blue laws are still popular, but they have nothing to to with the Lord. It’s traffic that drives votes in favor.
Democrats hold all the Freeholder seats and the Executive. The only countywide elected Republican is the County Clerk, and she is a pro-choice moderate. Joe Ferriero left no stone unturned in turning Bergen blue. That’s why he’ll be in federal prison soon.
Christie has been pushing hard here, especially in the wealthier towns north of Route 4. The southern towns are decidedly Corzine territory: blue collar, union, largely non-commuters, more populous.
The game in Bergen is to hold Corzine’s advantage down, not win it outright. But Christie can do that, especially after the Ferriero conviction.
If Corzine gets his usual margins in Bergen, Hudson, and Essex, there won’t be much Christie can do. That said, I think Democrats, minorities especially, will be staying home in droves next Tuesday.
———————–
Damn the Obama! Full speed ahead!
Polls showing Corzine up
Scope Tuesday, October 27th at 12:32PM EDT (link)must be broadcast, especially across the state of NJ. That way they can have cover for all those manufactured out of thin air, fradulent votes for Corzine. Doesn’t ACORN have the best ability to do what they do in close races?
Also, I hear that Christie has new campaign ads out tying Daggett to Corzine.
Polls showing Corzine up
Scope Tuesday, October 27th at 12:32PM EDT (link)must be broadcast, especially across the state of NJ. That way they can have cover for all those manufactured out of thin air, fradulent votes for Corzine. Doesn’t ACORN have the best ability to do what they do in close races?
Also, I hear that Christie has new campaign ads out tying Daggett to Corzine.
New Poll From Rasmussen, Christie Leading
crosley Tuesday, October 27th at 1:07PM EDT (link)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor
Christie 46, Corzine 43
One item I heard that’s really hurt Daggett is he won’t rule out taking a job in the Corzine administration. I think it’s obvious Daggett and Corzine are in cahoots.