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Obama’s lead down to two points in Pennsylvania

The Sarah Palin/Joe the Plumber populism could be paying off

By: Mark Kilmer (Diary)  |  October 22nd, 2008 at 03:13 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

John McCain and Sarah Palin have spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania of late, and team Obama might have an internal poll showing the race in the commonwealth tightening fast.

[M]uch buzz today surrounds the apparently inadvertent leak of an internal poll by Barack Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania that supposedly showed the Democrat leading there by only 2 percentage points — a much-slimmer margin than independent surveys have recorded for him and one that would make the race for the state a tossup.

An e-mail from a local Obama aide expressing concern about the internal poll’s findings ended up in the queue of a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre, Pa.

Meanwhile, PA Governor Ed Rendell, an erstwhile Hillary booster, has sent Team Barry two e-mails suggested that Obama get his tail back to the Keystone State before he loses its 21 Electoral votes.

Given McCain-Palin’s ongoing activity in the commonwealth, I’ve wondered if their internals also showed a race within the margin. If that’s what Obama’s seeing, John McCain has a bit of a wider path, taking a State which had not gone Republican since GHWB in 1988.

Rendell, Obama, and Jack Murtha have already excused a possible loss in Pennsylvania, citing racism. It’s is an insulting excuse.

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COMMENTS

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  • LibRick

    I commented sometime ago about how worried Obama was about Penn. It did seem a bit strange that based on the external polls, both the Obama and McCain campaigns have been spending so much time and resources there. This little nugget you report adds some perspective.

  • Woodywoodchopper

    The Obama campaign might have done that to get their people back to work.

    Sean Quinn over at fivethirtyeight.com reported that in PA:

    What we’re seeing on the ground with volunteering, especially with public polls showing double digit leads in Pennsylvania, is that the “flake rate” for volunteers is higher. “Flake rate” is the term for how the percentage of people who sign up to do a canvassing or phonebanking shift, and then don’t show up. It tends to happen when a candidate’s supporters get complacent. And it can happen in a hurry.

    The Real Clear Politics poll aggregator still has a clear Obama lead in the state, but one that has declined a few points recently.

  • ILLINOIS_CONSERV

    Whats your gut feeling on PA?

  • Lysander

    I am curious, any redstate members from PA??? If so what’s it like on the ground there regarding GOP grassroot efforts. Is McCain making any progress in the Murtha districts?? Scranton??? Philadelphia suburbs??? And also what about the traditionally red counties. Is there greater turnout there??? I would appreciate any reply.

    • PaRep

      & so does Fast Eddie Spendell, Sarah is going to Beaver Pa. That is Union Central in Western Pa. Reagan Democrats & at this late date you don’t send a Candidate whether it be VP & Presidential candidate unless you have polling that it will help you

      There are NO HEAD FAKES at this point!!!

      Also I am wondering if Obama’s Carpet bombing of ads in battleground states are having a detrimental effect & that is why they took Biden of the Trail for a Day & Obama is “going to Hawaii to see his ailing Grandma”

      Wonder if the have polling data that it’s hurting them

  • yellowteef

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703

    • PaRep

      to sign up & tell us this

      • neum432

        nt

        • yellowteef

          hey, if you’d rather live in fantasyland and remain uninformed…have at it.

          • Tim_Schieferecke

            n/t

          • neum432

            You seem to be the person to ask a poll question. Mike Barone just said on Hannity that he thinks D’s may have a 10pt advantage on party ID this election. Trying to be optimistic here but, that is a pretty tall order to overcome if what he said is accurate. Any thoughts?

          • PaRep

            .

          • PaRep

            when you live in the Fishbowl that is Washington D.C.

            Also he was employed by Peter D Hart the LIBERAL POLLSTER before becoming a “Journalist”

          • janis

            Drudge reported this morning that AP has the candidates within one point of each other.

            Does that qualify as old news, too?

            (And brush your teeth, that yellow look is never a social winner.)

          • PaRep

            This is from his Wikipedia profile

            Background

            Barone graduated from Cranbrook Schools in 1962. He received a bachelor’s degree from Harvard University in 1966 and a law degree from Yale Law School in 1969. He is a native of suburban Detroit, Michigan. Although his political viewpoint is center-right today, in the 1960s he worked as an intern for Jerome Cavanagh, the Democratic mayor of Detroit.[1] He was also a supporter of George McGovern in 1972. [2]

          • neum432

            registrations being actual voters showing up on election day across the country. Maybe a couple of pt. advantage on party ID for D’s would make a little more sense, but not 10pts. thanks

          • yellowteef

            if you don’t want to admit to yourself that this story emerged 8 days ago, then that is your prerogative. do you have a suggestion for toothpaste? leftover pan grease hasn’t been working.

          • janis

            my bad. On the other hand, I assume that voters in PA were included in the AP poll, wouldn’t you? And if The One weren’t in trouble in PA, then why would Rendell be urgently requesting that he come back?

            As to the pan grease, maybe you need to include the stuff that gets burned onto the pan at the bottom. That’s pretty gritty and might just do the trick.

          • Lysander

            He also mentioned on the radio that the number of Republicans and Democrats was at about 37% in 2004. There is no way that there has been a 10% increase in 4 years.

          • Lysander

            Who are you fooling?? If you want to real discussion fine otherwise, your wasting your time here. Perhaps some commie blog would be where you belong.

          • Mark_Kilmer

            high-energy events. People here are excited. I think McCain-Palin will own everything west of Hershey (Harrisburg), including Allegheny.

            That said, a lot will depend on Obama’s GOTV in Philly, and with the “flaking” described earlier, that might be a problem for him.

            I’d like to see McCain do well in the NE and take one of the Philly exurbs, like MontCo.

            Two weeks is a long time, still, but the McCain-Palin campaign seems to be pretty well placed right now.

  • LisaDe

    Suburbs, outside Philly. Chester County. (Very affluent area) Highly republican, Also, big population of mexican (mushroom workers) and moving south, very rural. Driving to work, all I see are McCain signs. A few Obama. There is a democratic office something or other in town from here, I believe the closest Republican one is about 20 miles.

    In the mushroom area where I assume to be very Dem, all I see are McCain signs. Last election, alot Kerry. I cheer ever time I pass through.

    In my store, I have had a “Vote” box just for fun and to do some polling on my own. Been up about 2 months. The customers seemed to like it. So far, 57 votes McCain. 13 votes Obama.

    Actually Joe Bidens house is about 10 miles from here. It doesnt seem to have made a bit of difference!

    Alot of people I talk to say that they couldn’t believe Obamas and Murthas comments about clinging to our guns, us being racists and rednecks. I think those comments really affected the PA voters. With the exception of Philly and Pittsburg, I believe the people of PA are overwhelmingly for McCain. Even Philly, to me, is not exactly off the charts Democratic and I have no info concerning Pittsburg. Again, I think the demeaning comments struck a cord here!

    • Mark_Kilmer

      in Murtha’s district (PA-12), which would bode well for Murtha opponenet Bill Russell. McCain owns the middle, and he’s doing well in the entire west (including Allegheny). Otherwise, I just don’t know.

      Like I said, I’d like to see him do well in the NE — and he could — and pick off a county around Philly.

      • PaRep

        voters will show up & the INEVITABILITY BS that they & their Accomplices in the Media are constantly running out there

        AS Chester James Carville said “If you want to know who the loser is it’s the Candidate relying on new voter”.

        • Mark_Kilmer

          and I honestly don’t put much credence in their attempts at analysis.

          We do not know how accurate this report might be, just like we don’t know the accuracy of what the polls report. It is, however, a tonic for the troops, so to speak.

          Remember, if his were a clever Axelrod ploy, it would have been leaked to the Inquirer, not the LAT.

  • conservativechick

    he says there’s no way it won’t go McCain; you can read all his posts over at FR

    • PaRep

      .

  • JLenardDetroit

    As many early States that go into either contenders column matters in the overall outcome (see: Voting Psychology, Bandwagon effect). For that reason, if the State of PA were to lean to going for McCain/Palin you can rest assured the MSM will be slow to call it to prevent any positive Republican sway (as I go into detail in: Why MSM calls/reports when States go Blue).

    We must continue the good fight in pointing out all the issues including Why the country cannot afford an Obama Surrender Doctrine/Dividend. Obama’s arguments get dumber and dumber as we get down to the wire trying to shake his “spread the wealth” comment and now having to dodge Biden’s latest reasoning why Obama should not be President in letting the cat out of the bag on Obama “will be tested” remark (alot of Diaries here on that one).

    • yellowteef

      I’m not here to enlighten you on anything. We both know that you and I would have a grand canyon like chasm in our characterization of a “real discussion” so we can just leave that be.

      However, if you’d like to argue whether this piece of information is at least 8 days old, I’d be happy to oblige.

      Perhaps you can enlighten me on some Einsteinian theory that justifies it being passed off that way.

      • LisaDe

        I’m so exhausted from the whole thing that I can’t even spell right any more!

  • Staunch_Libertarian

    What good is it to gain PA if we lose Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina?

    I really am concerned about this tunnel vision on Pennsylvania. It is a state that has reliably voted Democrat nationally even if it is close in the count. I would worry more about states easier to hold like North Carolina and Virginia.

    • pwest

      McCain is not going to lose North Carolina; if he does, then we are in for a long night!

      As for CO and NM, Palin has campagined in both; maybe, she will return.

      McCain/Palin seem to be focusing on PA, NH, OH, VA and MO. You guys, am I missing one?

      PS,

      Thanks for all the help over at my first blog post!

      • jgatts

        I live in PA and I know very few people who are voting for Sen. Obama. If you drive around you will see 7 or 8 McCain signs for every 1 Obama sign where I live. I even know people who are voting for the first time to make sure Obama does not win PA. If they think just because someone is a blue collar worker they are going to vote for Obama they are mistaken. We all have dreams of starting a business or using our money to invest in our futures, not give it to the government. In PA, we know we need a leader who is ready and has the experience and the character to keep us safe and keep the American dream alive.

        • pwest

          did you hear what Rush said today as he signed off; he said Gallup’s newest poll said that Palin is a bigger drag on McCain than George Bush.

          Now, we know that is just BS, but it goes to the point I made in my blog post. The MSM is setting the stage to blame Palin for a McCain loss, so that she has no political future.

          Folks, you got to wake up. If you want Palin, then you gotta vote McCain/Palin.

          Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!

          • jgatts

            McCain is doing well in NEPA, they just want you to think that because Biden lived in Scranton everyone is voting for him but trust me they are not! The Philly area is the only area where I think Obama is clearly leading, but don’t count out the rest of the state!

          • PaRep

            I have honestly seen it as McCain taking PA from day one… I see no chance Fauxbama takes PA. His support on the ground is the weakest of any D since Dukakis.

            I am not predicting a McCain blow out in PA, but I do see him winning it.

            Kerry squeaked by on the skin of his teeth, with the state machine and the base fully behind him. Fauxbama doesn?t have either of these.

            I?m frankly amazed every day I go through the traditional white lower and middle class neighborhoods and see absolutely no signs of support for the guy, relative to most elections.

            He hasn?t brought large amounts of the Hillary voters home, and he?s not going to. Mark PA up for McCain this year.

          • jwl1975

            Where do you live? As you know Pennsylvania is a big, diverse state. Just becasue your area isn’t Obama crazy doesn’t mean other parts, in and around Philadelphia aren’t. I grew up in suburban Philadelphia and continue to follow all the sports teams there. On Philadelphia fan message boards, there are definitely more Obama supporters than McCain supporters.

            Going by your logic, Obama is going to win Virginia with 90% of the vote because all I see here in Arlington are Obama signs.

          • Lysander

            especially when you come here filled with heavy rhetoric but empty substance. I don’t take any polls seriously for your information so I don’t think I need to be resorting to any of Einstein’s theories. However, you are the one who comes here saying its 100% flawed so that mean’s the burden is on you to prove it. Hard to do since every single poll fluctuates to drastically all the time. On another note showing links to the dailykos is not going to add to your credibility.

  • TomKawczynski

    I live in Allegheny County, and Democrats are leaving the Obama ticket in droves. I think there is enthusiasm with the young and in the Squirrel Hill/Oakland crowd for him, but many older Democrats that are talking are supporting McCain. Different reasons, some better than others, but of the Union Democrats I know, I’d say a majority are voting for McCain and these are their supervoters.

    I was at the Johnstown Rally for Palin and the McCain Rally at Robert Morris. Having been to my share of Republican events, what continues to strike me is how many women have been coming out. If it is indicative, I think the story that no one is telling but that may prove decisive is that Republican women are inspired.

    In the general area, it seems like McCain is making gains in the surrounding counties. I see a ton of signs in Westmoreland County and Butler County, where I have been spending some time.

    It seemed even more pronounced in Johnstown as Murtha continues causing problems for the Dems.

    • bs

      b) Even if you COULD figure out how to do it, no one would care, as the people here are about as likely to read something on DKos as they are to vote for The Obamination that is Desolation.

      But thanks for sharing.

      • PaRep

        That is Bovine Excreta

        • Mark_Kilmer

          knows Pennsylvania very well, also. This election has turned into Philly vs. the rest of the State. Barry needs to ring up huge turnout totals in Philly and hope McCain’s stay down in the cities further west. McCain needs to dominate in the west and score some in the NE and the counties near Philly to offset Obama’s potential Philly turnout.

          It can be done.

  • Brandozilla

    McCain yard signs are EVERYWHERE. To the point that if I see a Obama sign, I really take notice.

    I spend most of my time however, in a very rural small town part of the county though.

    The rally at Lehigh U, was supposedly PACKED, although I couldn’t make it due to work.

    • ocleverone

      One of the things to remember is McCain is preferred with military, retired military, etc. in a 3 to 1 margin over Obama.

      Virginia has the largest contingency of military, retired military, and their spouses, who tend to vote similarly, in any of the 50 states (or 57 in Obamaworld).

      I truly believe one of the reasons people felt halfway comfortable with Webb was because he played on his previous military experience/connections.

      • aaronbg

        You can see the Colorado schedule here.

        • PaRep

          told him they were giving up on Colorado, AstroTurfing by the media

          • PSDA

            The number of military families in Virginia hasn’t exploded over the past twice years, but the number of federal workers in the Northern Virginia suburbs has.

            I live in Virginia, and based on demographics (as opposed to polls), I see Pennsylvania as much easier nut to crack.

            You have to realize also that the voting African-American population is TWICE as large in Virginia as it is PA, while PA is over 50% Roman Catholic, according to figures I’ve seen.

  • Finrod

    Here’s the link. They’ve only done one poll previously (ever, actually), back on Sep. 18, which seems a lifetime ago now, but back then they had PA tied, 45-45. Actually they’re polling all the Big Ten states, so it’ll be interesting to see where they have OH MI IN WI MN IA all coming in; the only one not within 5 points in their previous poll was IL.

    • PSDA

      You did leave out a state–Nevada. If McCain is going to win, I believe that the election could very well come down to Nevada.

      Personally, I anticipate McCain winning North Carolina, Missouri, Florida and Ohio, but losing New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico.

      In this scenario, Pennsylvania and Nevada would hand him the election. Pennsylvania is the tough one, but if he gets that, it’ll be a long election night because Nevada polls don’t close until 10 EST.

      The problem with focusing on VA over PA is that if McCain loses PA and wins VA, then he still has to take two out of three of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Or (and this a wildcard) win Colorado and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

      Problem is that McCain’s resources are spread thin and Obama is flush with cash. Also, I believe that New Mexico is hopeless.

      So he has, in my estimation, two choices.

      • Focus on trying to win uphill battles in Virginia, and Colorado, and then bring home the very winnable state of Nevada.

      • Or focus on trying to win an uphill battle in Pennsylvania and then bring home the very winnable state of Nevada.

      It’s really a choice of fighting two very difficult battles or just fighting one.

      It’s Virginia plus Colorado plus Nevada (or Maine’s Second District) OR simply Pennsylvania plus Nevada.

      • ocleverone

        But it isn’t a done deal for Obama by any means. In fact, I think that Virginia will stay Red this election.

        After the Washington Post absolutely pulverized Allen with the Mawcaca, hints of racism, and other nasty articles, he lost by 9,000 votes and didn’t have near the following that McCain/Palin does. Also Virginian Republicans have a tendency to come out in force for Presidential elections, not so much in the off years.

        McCain and Palin have been seeing events with 25,000 people in attendance. There are McCain/Palin gear all over. I see 10 times more visual support for McCain than Obama.

        Not all of those Federal workers you mentioned are going to vote for Barack. Add to that the 700,000 military community, I think McCain’s going to do just fine.

  • SeriousLaff

    McCain shouldn’t give up on Colorado, he should give up on getting the Hispanic vote. As usual his attempt to reach over the isle has done no good. He won’t win their votes. He could gain on the immigration issue.

    He should go after Obama on the illegal alien drivers licenses, heathcare for illegals, lack of a border fence and everything else that will happen if Obama gets in office. It would also help expose the pro amnesty Senate wannabes.

    • Nick09

      I live in Virginia also and I know that it’s going red. You live in Arlington. Arlington has a heavy black population so of course you’re going to see more Obama signs there. I live in Fairfax and I’ll tell you right now that I see about 10 McCain signs for every 1 Obama sign.

      Secondly northern Virginia is democratic compared to the rest of the state which is more conservative. I’ll tell ya right now that those pollers aren’t polling people down in rural Virginia, they’re polling people in northern democratic Virgina.

      Next time you’re going to make an assumption please know your facts first.

      • Incredible

        Look at the demographics, etc.

        1. Hispanics (from Hispania?) and Africa Americans are only a small percent of the population. McCain being popular with moderate whites, male and female, is going to have a much bigger impact than the mythical “new voter” turnout.

        2. The state outside of Boulder is a typical right-leaning state with the bonus of a lot of military and Evangelicals.

        3. Obama consistently under-performs his polls.

        4. Sarah Palin. She drew 11-15,000 people for an 8am rally. I had to get up at 4am just to be in the first coupla thousand through the gate. Then she drew ~22,000 in a town of about 100,000. This ties into point #5.

        5. Down-ticket races and ballot initiatives are going to drive turn-out. The Schaffer race, the card-check initiative and even the abortion outlawing issue is going to push conservatives to the polls.

        No doubt that this state, and the whole election, is going to be a tight run thing, but I’m confident in my prediction.

        • PSDA

          I don’t know how John McCain, of all people, would have any credibility taking on and trying to expose “pro amnesty Senate wannebes.” Unfortunately, this is not an area where John McCain has much of leg to stand on.

          This will be one of two huge ironies if McCain goes on to lose this election.

          If he loses (and I do say ‘if’), then two major reasons will be:

          1). How otherwise red states have been swamped by leftists who are here and voting because we haven’t controlled immigration for decades.

          2). And McCain-Feingold. A law which keeps McCain from being able to tap his supporters for money to answer the media’s lies.

  • MuskegonCritic

    Woohoo! Only 11 more points to go!

    PA Polls

    • kyle8

      funny how doing the more conservative thing would have served him so much better in both cases.

      • Moe_Lane

        …but do you think that you might want to try answering Mark’s post with something better than snark? – Because his argument is pretty implicitly “there may be something wrong with the external PA polls,” so just repeating said polls isn’t actually doing anything meaningful.

  • olderthangandalf

    Yard signs are a notoriously unreliable indicator.

    It also doesn’t mean much that McCain is winning in a given area, unless that area is metro Philly or Pittsburgh. Bush lost in 2000 and 2004 and yet carried just about every county outside of Philly, Pittsburgh and Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

    The issues are how big turnout will be in the urban areas, who wins the suburbs, and how close Obama can keep to McCain in the rest of the state. In other words, it’s not whether McCain is going to win around Harrisburg or along I-80 (he better), but how big he wins around Harrisburg or along I-80.

    You know it’s not a blowout because both campaigns are contesting the state actively. One campaign can be mistaken (as McCain seems to have been in contesting Iowa so much), but probably not both of them. This is a state that can still be won or lost.

    One interesting thing about Pennsylvania is that it’s not an early voting state. There are absentee ballots, but of the traditional “I won’t be in my home precinct at all on election day” type. That’s going to put real pressure on both sides – but especially Obama in the urban areas – to get their voters to the polls in that narrow time window and have the withstand the long lines.

    Obama is well organized and active all across the state, including the red areas. In the rural areas I’ve visited, the McCain people are pretty well organized as well, but more in a grass roots way.

    • Arlingcon

      Nick, Arlington has a microscopic black population. I’m pretty sure it’s under 10%.

      You’re probably thinking of Alexandria, which has a largeish black population. 

      Off-topic - Is there a primer for this XML stuff somewhere on the site?
  • SeriousLaff

    However, McCain could:

    1. Say he has learned his lesson on immigration (he says he got the message).

    2. Admit his stance nearly cost him the nomination.

    3. Warn voters that Obama and the Democrats running for the house and senate have such an extreme position on immigration that it threatens the security of this nation.

    Drivers licences, no border security, voter fraud, in state tuition, healthcare for illegals, increase in work visas (as unemployment is going up), an end to e-verify will all be law unless someone in the Whitehouse or the Senate is there to stop them. It is a popular stance to take. Even Harry Reid was for eliminating citizenship for anchor babies when he first ran for reelection.

    • mostman79

      I remember last month when they released their polls. People basically laughed at them. They had odd numbers – like Indiana tied -last month!

      Anyway – I don’t think their reputation is going to improve any today. As an Obama supporter, I would like to believe them, but no way.

      Go check them out – they are way off base. No way is Indiana +10 Obama – no way.

      • Pentagon16

        he didn’t say it WAS a D+10 sample, he stated it was not more than that like some polls have,

        and that it may be possible it is up to 10. Hopefully it is only +4/5 and we win..

        • Moe_Lane

          …and a smart guy.

          • PaRep

            from HamiltonJay @ Free Republic

            Fauxbama has gone from 26% of his adds being negative to something like 78% of his ads being negative… you don?t do that when you are winning folks. Fauxbama is done, and he?ll lose PA.

            OH voter fraud is the only real issue left in this campaign that could threaten McCain/Palin winning.

          • neum432

            nt

          • oneman

            I can see how Palin is seen by the far right as a great canidate, however the fact of the matter is that a growing number of people don’t see her the same way. She has a shrinking appeal to independents and Reagan democrats that see her as being not ready for the job. Personally I couldn’t agree more with that assesment and think she was a horrible choice at this point in her career. She needs much more seasoning to be seen as viable by anyone other than the far right. Maybe 4 years from now.

  • oneman

    showing him with only a 2 point lead I think he would be spending alot more time here. I’m not even sure of the last time he was in PA. Rendell my be correct however in being pessimistic about the polls for Obama. It kinda shows a sense of taking PA for granted from Obama. Living in Central PA my whole life, I know there are indeed a lot of people who won’t vote for a black man. Not a majority, but enough that could make the difference.

  • SirGladiator

    why McCain is still targeting Pennsylvania is because of that lack of early voting that you mentioned. The fact that he may be behind there doesn’t really matter until people are actually voting, and since they wont vote there (other than absentee of course) for another 9 days gives him a maximum chance of victory. Of course I still think Michigan was even MORE winnable than Pennslyvania, but they made their choice so hopefully they can at least win this one.