On “The only poll that counts is on Election Day” and other Self-Deceptions


Ignoring the polls didn't work so well in 2006.

Apropos of nothing, I’m going to quote something Ace wrote a while back on polls. Anyone who’s familiar with my RS history would know that I’m not writing this to be discouraging, but instead to avoid us repeating the mistake we made in 2006.

Simple; we cannot afford to continue ignoring/dismissing polls with results we don’t like with the same set of excuses. Polls as a whole are useful indicators for letting us know whether we’re headed in the right direction and whether we need to change course or maintain our heading.

Remember that George W. Bush promised us in 2000 that as President, unlike Bill Clinton, he would ignore the polls. And as has always been his wont, he kept his promise. And how. Personally, I thought he meant polls when it came to decision-making, not the thorough refusal to even care about the opinions of his countrymen when it came to their President and his policies and try to bring them around.

We need to stop trying to console ourselves by dismissing polls we don’t like with the same old excuses. Knowing where we are helps us get to where we’re trying to go – we should know if we’re five points behind, not pretend we’re even. Ace laid them (the excuses) all out nicely …

  • Sampling favored Democrats.

  • Polls always favor Democrats, especially weekend polls, because Republicans are out of the house doing stuff.
  • There’s a lot of time left/debates can change everything/a week is a year in an election season/most undecideds or soft leaners only make up their minds 72 hours before the election, or in the voting booth itself.
  • Polls have been wrong before. Dewey defeats Truman. Kerry’s six-hour presidency.
  • The margin of error applies to both candidate’s levels of support. A +/- 3 point margin of error means that either could be plus or minus three points, meaning the whole poll can be off six net points.
  • Every poll will be outside the margin of error 5% of the time.
  • Some other polls show [the Republican] doing better/[the Republican] has internals showing him doing much better.
  • … state polls show some reason for optimism.
  • The Bradley Effect.
  • [The Democrats'] [voters] are unreliable voters.
  • [The Democrat] is effectively “the incumbent” in this election and most undecideds will break 70-30 in favor of [the Republican].
  • The only poll that counts is on [Election Day]

The last one particularly sets my teeth on edge. It’s time to win. Better we see clearly rather than through rose tinted glasses.

My 2 cents.


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I agree

pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:30PM EDT (link)

that’s why we’re so glad McCain’s finally taken the gloves off. Listen, a lot of people will be tuning in for the debate tomorrow night.

I thought McCain “suspended” his campaign to create a viewership for the Friday night debate with Obama; and he did get more viewers than the BUSH/KERRY Friday night debate in 04. But each step he has taken has been calculated to build support. Folks we were clammering last week for Freddie/Fanny, but he couldn’t until after the Bill was passed and signed: See Nancy Pilosi here!

Now that it has been signed, notice Palin didn’t go there on Thursday when 70 million watched. But tomrrow just like McCain’s speech at the Convention was watched by more people, that debate will be watched by more people. This is McCain’s chance to get Obama in a Townhall setting and hopefully tear him a new one.

The old dog has a few tricks up his sleeve. If he can do half as well at the debate as he did in the speech, look out.

I looked at a couple of polls; PA you’re a poll guy, so look as well. It seems McCain has been losing Republican support if you dig deep in the internals; hello, he can get that back!

So do be in denial; instead, be engaged and enraged until NOV 5th, or we will say hello Pres Obama in Jan!

Pam

 

I Assume You Are Reacting To Jaded's Diary

Strelnikov (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:31PM EDT (link)

Given that the polls are biased most probably, and contain inaccuracies, one can still say that they indicate a trend to Big Brobama.

We have gone through endless reasons why: fatigue with Republicans/W, believing the lies of Big Brobama because of media bias, younger voters voting for the younger and more telegenic man, etc. etc. etc.

So what is McCain supposed to do with the information from such polls? How does he handle a poll saying that Obama can handle the economy better than he can, despite all evidence to the contrary?

Or that people believe in Big Brobama’s class warfare agitprop?

Too often we have seen McCain follow the poll and become more like Big Brobama: fire the head of the SEC, blame Wall Street greed, more regulation instead of less but BETTER regulation, etc.

Incredibly, he then does something NOT indicated by the polls and by constituent outrage: voting for the “bail-out” which as predicted has not calmed things down in the financial markets!

Ignore the polls at your peril indeed!

But beware of the illogicalities indicated by polls: as mentioned many times, polls show the DEM Congress with a 9% approval rating. They say 60% of Americans think random people picked from a phone book could do at least as well as, if not better than, the DEM Congress.

So how does one proceed?

As of November 4, 2008, the Code Words will be: “Klaatu – Borada – Nikto!”

 

Well I personally will continue to point out the inaccuracies in the polls...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:37PM EDT (link)

but feel free to dump on my diary all you want! Very big of you to do so with your own instead of dirtying mine up..

I have changed quite a few minds this election with the type of information I have provided on the bias in polls and how they will become clearer within 2 weeks because the lying pollsters want to gain some credibility.

I however do not JUST bring up the lying polls, I show people media bias as well and again have changed minds though I must admit the MSM media is making it easy because they don’t even hide their bias anylonger….as a foot soldier in this Presidential battle I will continue to USE whatever I find relevent and you can do the same.

No,

pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:41PM EDT (link)

I’m sorry I meant to say don’t be in denial.

Strelnikov we’ve seen three polls today that show McCain within four; four is doable.

I’m saying McCain is building support; he lost support last week among Rep over the bailout; he had to hold his fire until it was signed.

Now that it has been, the gloves are off. He will go down fighting, and his base will go down with him. No one is declaring victory; we’re just saying fight, fight, fight!

Turn out! Turn out! Turn out!

Pam

Jaded: We Agree To A Certain Degree

Strelnikov (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:51PM EDT (link)

The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll just out a few hours ago also shows Obama pulling ahead.

The Wall Street Journal is hardly a friend of the Big Bro! I doubt they like the results of their own poll, but even if NBC does help to pay for it, I doubt the WSJ would openly allow a large left-wing bias to show up!

Still, the odds are good that it is probably still biased somewhat and so I, at least, agree with you, and with other commentators, that such polls can be used to demoralize us.

But I do believe e.g. the polls showing outrage against the bail-out being at 2/3 was probably close to being accurate, and so McCain lost an opportunity to run against the Bail-Out Dem Congress. Assuming that all the polls were wrong in showing a large degree of outrage is an assumption with great peril!

As of November 4, 2008, the Code Words will be: “Klaatu – Borada – Nikto!”

Jaded, agree there are some shenanigans going on with many of the polls

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:53PM EDT (link)

I’ve never seen an election where they are all over the map like this. And you even have the usually reliable Rasmussen getting some of the results in the primaries really really wrong.

But I do agree that polls are good for showing trends and momentum. No matter how you slice it, the momentum has been toward Obama the last few weeks. I think it is important to fight like you are behind if you want to win.

Using the old football analogy, the prevent defense only prevents you from winning.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

Amen

pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:02PM EDT (link)

to that!

Pam

Believe it or not Jaded, I wasn't responding to your diary.

Martin Knight (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:07PM EDT (link)

But in all fairness, after reading it, it certainly seems like I was. Go figure.

UMMM the News division is Not the Editorial Page Isn't

PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:13PM EDT (link)

Astroturfing Polls

PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:21PM EDT (link)

You can answer you are a Rep. & you’re voting for Obama, You can tell them you’re an Ind. & you’re voting Obama

That is why along with Operation Chaos from El Rushbo the MORON Pollsters think these R’s have turned to D’s PERMANTLY

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HEY...HERE'S A POLL YOU CAN'T MISS...

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:23PM EDT (link)

Dext time you’re driving through your neighborhood…start looking for McCain signs….Try looking for McCain bumper stickers when you’re stuck in traffic…or look for them when you are passing traffic or on cars that are passing you…

Not many around huh? I live in TX and we were poluted with Buch/Cheney bumper stickers and yard signs in 2000 and 2008. Didn’t see many Dole Kemp stickers or signs in 1996 though there were several in the church parking lot. I don’t see any McCain bumper stickers in church either.

This congress and this party has done more to destroy this party and squandered more opportunities in the last 4 years than in the last 70 years combined…I’m embarrassed to call myself a Republican any more…

MarkTwain 3

Ace, that wouldn't have anything to do with

Brian Simpson (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:41PM EDT (link)

the fact that Obama charges for his signs while McCain doesn’t?

Add that to your list Martin.


| My RedState archive |
Important principles may and must be inflexible. ~ Abraham Lincoln

McCain signs are up in my neighborhood...

Fallon (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 8:19PM EDT (link)

I have a sticker on my car and I live in Illinois! I purchased the yard sign and bumper sticker off the McCain website shortly after Sarah Palin was announced as McCain’s running mate. Before they came, I got an email saying the campaign was overwhelmed with orders and that they were sorry for the delay.

I try not to sound like a Pollyanna but it seems as though Obama’s questionable campaign financing and unsavory associates are starting to stick to him a little. His teflon suit is getting nicked and scratched and the Sun-Times reports on their website that “Federal prosecutors have asked a judge to indefinitely postpone Tony Rezko’s sentencing on corruption charges — admitting for the first time they are undergoing discussions with the political fund-raiser.”

McCain/Palin can still win this but everyone must get to the polls and vote on November 4th. No pouting and no sour grapes. It’s not over until we say it’s over, and it’s definitely not over!

In West Texas

jimmuy8 (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 9:32PM EDT (link)

where I’m at, I’m seeing a whole lot more R yard signs than 2004. Been driving through the same neighborhoods for the last 4+ years and lots of houses that had nothing in 2004 have a sign now.

OTOH: Was in Vegas over the weekend, saw several Obama shirts, doesn’t mean NV is going Obama.

 
 
 
 

Point well made and taken, Martin

stang (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 11:15PM EDT (link)

Not dismissed, but properly discounted.

In light of your diary here, I would amend a statement I have made to “The only poll that counts is the one on November 4, but all the other polls are important and you dismiss them at your peril.”

You will admit that the poll taken on Nov. 4 is the only one that will result in the award of elective office. This is the poll we must focus our energies on winning.

We already know the game is rigged. BigMedia is manufacturing their own news complete with polls and ObamAcorn is manufacturing their own votes. The BigMedia polls that will be/are/have been taken and blasted at us ad nauseum, are to serve the purpose of discouraging Republicans from going to the polls while simultaneously measuring the results of same for the Democrats and BigMedia. In that respect they are instructive but suspect as predictive. The narrative surrounding this is exetremely important and needs maximum exposure but actual poll results have limited utility to Republicans due to congenital defects.

Voter turnout will be critical to either candidate in winning the upcoming election and it is that which moves polls and voter butts from divan to polling booth that needs amplification.

Since we have opted not to manufacture our own votes, (I understand it’s a felony), it is imperative that the Republican message is enunciated loudly and clearly.

Obama this and Obama that will dither daily poll results, but will not move those butts to vote without being buttressed by the Republican message of who we are and the values and principles we stand for. It is that message that differentiates us from the Democrats. We must be careful not to drown that message out in a frenzy to move polls that don’t count.

The poll I would like to see:

Have you voted in the last three elections? Yes/no

Will you be voting in the upcoming election? Yes/no

Will you be voting Republican? Yes/no

Really? Yes/no

Important Notice:

As the Democrats are the home team this election cycle, Republicans will vote first on November 4 with Democrats voting last on Nov. 5.

Thank you for your cooperation,

The Commissioner

And recommended.

“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any farther obedience, and are left to the common refuge which God hath provided for all men against force and violence.”

John Locke

My point....

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:45PM EDT (link)

I see Obama stuff al over the place in San Antonio…and he charges for his stuff as you say…

Not so McCain…

I don’t want to be gloom and doom but in San Antonio anyway…things don’t look good based on the anecdotal evidence I see here.

MarkTwain 3

I hope you're right about this...

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:47PM EDT (link)

My observations are only valid for San Antonio TX but there is an almost complete absence of any McCain signs of Bumper stickers…maybe that will change in the next couple weeks….let’s hope and pray!

MarkTwain 3

I very much agree with you on this...

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:55PM EDT (link)

McCain/Palin can still win this but everyone must get to the polls and vote on November 4th. No pouting and no sour grapes. It’s not over until we say it’s over, and it’s definitely not over!

So why is it that I’ve seen McCain Surrogates in the last 3 days going out blowing the horn that the Republicans are gonna lose their behinds because everything is going against them so send us you money and campaign for us anyway….how are they helping the Party and or their candidate with that crap?

It’s not bad enough that McCain has blown every opportunity till now to take the fight to the enemy and is mavericking his way to a loss in November…It’s not enough that the squishes running his campaign have stood on Sarahs neck and almost ruined her by over scripting her and not allowing her to be the Conservative she is…but McCain seems to be incapable of not attacking Republicans and or helping them win…and/or minimizing losses in the House and Senate…

I’m livid with this campaign!

MarkTwain 3

Agreed re: the shirts...

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:59PM EDT (link)

and my evidence is purely anecdotal and confined to my observations in San Antonio as I’ve mentioned above…but there is a noticeably gloomy atmosphere vsv Republicans in San Antonio.

MarkTwain 3

Hmmm

Brian Simpson (Diary) Friday, October 10th at 2:06AM EDT (link)

Somehow I read your post wrong. Never mind the previous entry.


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Important principles may and must be inflexible. ~ Abraham Lincoln