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Not To Rub Anyone’s Face In It But …

... I told you so!

By: Martin Knight (Diary)  |  November 5th, 2008 at 11:36 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I hope and pray that we have seen the absolute last of the “Ignore the Polls! Ignore the Polls! They’re all Lying! Ignore the Polls! Turn Out! Turn Out!“.

We comforted ourselves with this same fairy tale in 2006. I’m really really hoping that yesterday put this stupidity to rest … or do we really need to be hit again for the third time?

Once (again!), it turns out the polls were pretty accurate. Like they were in 2006 (when we lost), in 2004 (when we won) and 2002, when most of our guys that we’re seeing being booted out of the Senate by their electorates were being voted in by the very same people.

I remember tearing my hair out about it in 2006 to no avail – i.e. they can’t all be lying, I said. Ignore the polls! Turn out!!! were the shrieks in response. Heck, in 2006, even the Republican internal polls were being dismissed by some of the smartest of our regulars.

This time, I couldn’t bring myself to refight old battles again. I’ve always thought part of being a conservative is resisting the urge to see the world through Rose-tinted glasses. Well, the past few weeks have been a revelation.

This is one of those situations where I really wish events proved me wrong. Unfortunately, I was right. {shrug: Yay for me …}

We have races next year (VA and NJ) to pay attention to. I sure as heck hope that never again would anyone who screams “Ignore the Polls!!!” be taken seriously again. We’re supposed to be smarter than that.

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COMMENTS

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  • PaRep

    I was wrong I was half heartedly believeing the polls were cooked, BUT deep down inside I knew that McCain would not get the Undecideds & I’s that he needed He ran a HORRIBLE Campaign with a HUGE assist from ROVE & GWB

    • Uma_Richie

      Someone had to keep the fight on.

      So how do feel about Barletta for Gov? I would have loved to see Kanjorski go down in flames, but I do believe that Lou’s talents would have been wasted in DC.

      • MelZ

        but you know, I just had to hold on to some hope.

        Last night the last words I said to my husband were, “hey this is the media speculating….we won’t really know until tomorrow”. I knew they were empty words…but at that point the beer just was not doing enough.

        • Moe_Lane

          …is that the second that enough people do the predictive powers of said pollster will start to degrade. It’s like a law of the universe, or something. :)

          • PaRep

            I was clinging to hope I knew was not based on fact, McCain was not going to get the undecideds & I’s

            But I don’t think any Rep. could have won in this enviroment

          • E_Pluribus_Unum

            Several of those had him up by obscene numbers, and it was so cleary, CLEARLY designed to influence, that it’s easy to ignore what is so clearly NOT designed to be accurate.

            That they ended up pretty close to accurate is more a testimony to media thuggery than to real legitimate predictive powers.

        • c17wife

          You make a very valid point.

          However, I am holding people like you and Zoot accountable now. Those of us “whiteys” aren’t going to be able to question one GD thing Barack does lest we be called RACIST! So, it is up to you, conservative men and women of color, to step up and challenge his nonsense. It’s also time for other conservatives of color to recruit at the grassroots level, publically help sell the brand and lastly, run for and win local, state and national office. The GOP has much to offer the black community, but we have to have help convincing them. I hope you are willing to step up to the plate.

          • ZootSuit

            Seriously, if you think a policy or even the character of the President-elect is faulty, don’t be afraid of criticizing him. Hey, I am definitely not afraid of being called an “Uncle Tom” for doing so.

            Let’s not fall into the politically correct games of the Left. Besides, if I think you’re being racist, I will call you out on it.

          • ZootSuit

            Whatever happened to BlackMaverick, the former BlackRepub?

          • alchemist17

            Some polls were right … but many were wrong. This wasn’t the popular vote blowout of 10-15% that some polls were predicting, and the battleground states in the end were very close (even if Obama took more than expected).

            The argument that the race is closer than expected and turnout were key I believe were both valid statements given the polls. And it’s better to fight to the end than to give in, regardless of the polls.

            In the end, the campaigns themselves need to understand the polls – we, the voters and enthusiasts, can suffice to support the candidates and get out the vote in most cases. If you, as an individual, are happier ignoring the polls feel free (unless you’re also a candidate).

          • kyle8

            nt

          • ZootSuit

            It does happen but it is surprisingly rare. Or at least, it doesn’t happen to my face. Among my many liberal, even Leftist friends and acquaintances, I and my ideas are always treated with the utmost respect. Perhaps I have two “advantages”:

            1) At least those who know me and/or know my history know that I am … well … a Black nationalist. See my sig.

            2) Not trying to be funny or arrogant but I am intelligent, articulate and “clean” (okay, I am trying to be a little funny) and express my conservative ideas quite cogently. In a civil debate — and believe it or not, most debates are civil — even my philosophical adversaries respect that.

            Actually, I would like to add a third reason why I think I am not called an “Uncle Tom”:

            3) I am principled enough to be honest about the failures of Republicans. For example, since I have consistently criticized Bush for his big-government ways, I think people (i.e. my more liberal colleagues and friends) have been much more open to my criticisms of Obama’s big-government plans.

            I honestly and truly believe that if we conservatives had been more consistently and vocally opposed to Bush’s “compassionate conservatism,” conservative principles and the Republican Party would have been far more successful both this year and in 2006.

          • c17wife

            on here. My point is this-if we are ever going to effectively reach out to minorities, it is going to come from people like you, Martin, and Michael. You guys can call a spade a spade. Because of the “narrative” now established, we “whitey” can not. Or if we do, you guys are going to have to have our backs.
            Barack Obama is not bringing racial equality to this country. He, and especially his wife, seem to have an agenda that is designed to make “whitey” pay for a while. That is only going to cause BIG problems in Bubba-ville. And I think you know that.

          • ekevlar11

            that the polls were skewed or wrong.

            Dashed.

  • mbauer

    The number of posts about the poll conspiracy made me think I was surfing a Ron Paul forum.

    It’s really simple, Rasmussen has proven to be a great pollster. He has a small MOE (generally 2% for a 95% level of confidence), and we was incredibly accurate and consistent. I’d like to see Redstate just endorse Rasmussen and be done with any debates on polls. If we are watching any races incredibly closely, just keep the Rasmussen data somewhere on the page, and take that as the next best thing to fact.

    • PaRep

      I know this sickening feeling all to well My Penguins lost in the Stanley Cup Final last season & the Pirates Have broken my heart in the playoffs, BRAVES series, 1 out away from the World Series UGGGGH !!

      But this soon shall pass & the Sun came up today it will set tonight & so on

  • Magnificat

    And we are not few. The majority of immigrants are Christians and Catholics, and the older generation cling to old world values that are more consistent with the GOP line. Prop 8 has already passed in California, and prop 4 (restricting minor’s abortion) looks like it’ll be narrowly defeated. The record number of blacks voters probably voted FOR prop 8 while also voting for BHO.

    The Democrats have a hold on Latinos and Asians because they’re more lenient on illegal immigration and support sham minority empowerment measures like affirmative action. They coddle militant, anti semitic types who believe uncle Sam is a racist white establishment.

    To be frank, I can’t really credit either party for doing much for immigrants. Of course, the democratic party is supposed to be sympathetic to minority’s, and that concept is good for a laugh.

    I don’t have to imagine the BHO presidency will be like. It’s already happening in Dem dominated California. If you voted for BHO elsewhere, I guess those people could actually afford to live in places like San Francisco.

    I wish BHO luck, but I’m not optimistic.

    • eburke

      diary this morning the results of the CNN exit poll which show 89% of Pubs but only 78% of conservatives voted for McCain. That tells us two things – 1) there are a lot of Dems who consider themselves conservatives; and 2) our ‘campassionate conservatism’, ‘biparisanship’, and ‘New Tone’ have rendered ourselves so indistinguishable from the Dems/Socialists that 22% of conservatives could discern so little difference between the GOP and the Socialist/Dems that they voted for the most Marxist candidate in our history.

      I am formulating a diary in my head re: where we went wrong and how we can get on track but until time avails itself but I am convinced that McCain blew an opportunity to win this election when he failed to tap into the visceral anger of the American people over the bailout bill. Had he blasted the whole pork-laden debacle as an example of politics as usual, combined with blasting Dodd, Frank, and Obama as contributing to this mess as a result of their hefty FM/FM donations, he could have in one fell swoop show he was the agent of change in this election.

      If he was going to suspend his campaign, he should’ve gone to Washington, assumed the bully pulpit the campaign afforded him and made good on his promise to ‘name names’. Massive bonus points would’ve been awarded by the electorate by showing a break with Bush not in words but in actions. Instead, he went the ‘bipartisan’ route and became indistinguishable from Obama on this crucial issue.

      What might have been. Sigh!

  • DRP

    Fact Check.org Link

    I’m pretty sure it’s going to end up being nothing.

    • ZootSuit

      If McCain had said and did that, I think he would have won the election. He would have:

      1) Been right (and Right) economically. I actually do think something should have been done but the major thing that should have been done is not take the taxpayer’s money in the first place. That is, at least temporarily (and if possible, permanently) suspend capital gains taxes. The sad thing is, even as everyone realized that the problem was one of credit availability and capital liquidity, so very few even among Republicans thought to not take (i.e. tax) people’s capital in the first place. Even most Republicans thought the solution was more government spending.

      2) Distinguished and differentiated himself from George W. Bush. That would be the high-profile end to the meme that McCain was just “Bush’s third term”; especially with Obama supporting the bailout.

      3) Done what was politically popular. Every poll I have seen indicated that people opposed the bailout package by about 2-to-1, especially when it was first introduced.

      But instead of doing that, McCain … well … what might have been.

      • DRP

        This post was responding to something.

        • eburke

          n/t

          • Martin_A_Knight

            When Gwen Ifill asked about the cause of the financial crisis and Palin responded with the milquetoast “Wall Street greed” BS, I immediately realized that McCain was too gosh-darn “bipartisan” to do what needed to be done.

            For all his shouts about “making them famous” he failed to deliver when it would have mattered.

          • gamecock

            None.

            I disagree with your premise. I don’t think polls drive turnout to a significant degree. If they did, we would have had higher turnout. But I think that the bad polls did drive us to higher turnout than if they had been better.

            What the poll obsessors usually do is not try and drive turnout, but, rather, tell us we CAN’T WIN NO MATTER WHAT. THAT IS THE PROBLEM.

            Obsessing over gloom and doom depresses turnout for us.

            Campaigns need to direct resources based on internal polls.

            But most of the poll obsession here was to try and set up I told you so moments like this or try and get us to move left.

            None have any bearing on trying to win. Time is better spent attacking the other side and touting our vision.

            MAK, you seem to confuse the actual election with the talk about the election.

            Of course, anyone can read polls and make predictions.

            So what?

            Trying to win is what I am about. Ever coached a team? Ever played for a team in which the coach told you that you were going to lose?

            of course not.

            You seem to think it vital that we all “be prepared” to lose and that if we all just accepted defeat sometime between defeat Nov 7, 2006 and Nov 4, 2008, that somehow “things” would be better?

            Not getting it.

            What I do get is analyzing why we lost. Polls are useful for that. But once we have our candidate, poll obsession is quite pathologically useless.

            Love ya MAK.

          • gamecock

            First read this

            http://www.redstate.com/diaries/martinaknight/2008/nov/05/not-to-rub-anyones-face-in-it-but/#c76718

            An additional point: I don’t think turnout urgency helps except for the last few days and that poll trailing is only makeweight.

            They have to want to vote for the candidate on substance first, and second. That is the main motivator.

            Therefore, I see the months out poll obsessions as mostly defeatist. Most that post polls, do so to tell us all how we can’t win.

          • Martin_A_Knight

            Look … polls are useful. Used and reacted to properly, they can make the difference between victory and defeat.

            Bush (whom I still don’t regret supporting way back when) famously promised the nation that he’ll never allow polls to influence his actions as President. After Clinton, I remember everyone thinking that was a swell idea.

            Except that Bush took it too far.

            His White House ignored the polls(!), ignored the polls(!!), ignored the polls(!!!) until his polling numbers are now only slightly north of that of the Ebola virus.

            2006 – the entirety of the GOP ignored the polls(!!!) banking on Turn Ooouuuttt!!! – essentially wiping out any chance of changing tactics and strategy that could have helped us hold on to a few seats.

            2008 – again. Ignore the polls(!!!) We ignored not just the “Who are you voting for?” polls but polls telling us what was uppermost on voters’ minds. Persuadables were thinking “The Economy“, we were pushing “Ayers!“

            Frankly, GC – as a cheerleader, you’re without peer. But campaigns do not hinge on morale alone. Far from it. Strategy and tactics play a much bigger role and we cannot make them work if we’re going to keep ignoring information just because we don’t like what we’re seeing.

            We’ve tried this twice already. We don’t need to get hit thrice to know that “Ignore the Polls!!!” is a loser.

          • bcb1

            It’s a serious flaw of the left and the right to say “ahh, the polls are all wrong and flawed and biased and blah blah blah” when they aren’t going your way.

            But it’s just not true. Yes, some polls are partisan. But even those are often very close.

            Look at Kos’s poll by Research 2000. Extrememly close to the actual result this year, and they provide all of the crosstabs and back-end info as well. Like them or not, their poll was at least transparent.

            The old standby of “ignore the polls” and “the only poll that matters is the vote on election day” is no more helpful than closing your eyes and covering your ears and saying “la la la la I can’t hear you”.

          • Moe_Lane

            Martin’s right: we let ourselves ignore the polling data, and we shouldn’t have. But Mike’s right, too: we ignored the polling data because it was being used as a weapon against us by a media eager to whale on all opposition to their candidate. The fact that it was increasingly correct polling data doesn’t mean that it wasn’t deliberately done.

          • gamecock

            I have no problem with internal use of polls for tactics, so long as the party doesn’t decide to abandon principle because a poll says a majority wants to go left.

            You understand that I managed tow WINNING campaigns for congress.

            But that is not what poll obsession is. Poll obsessors use them to say we CAN’T win. That is what i fight against.

            You simply didn’t respond to what I wrote.

            What is there to “ignore the polls”? OK, I read a poll. We trail. And?

            suicide?

            We campaign on what we believe in and try and persuade. We attack the other side.

            The polls say we are going to lose. Should we read those polls and give up? That’s what goes on here. A bunch of navel gazers that think it makes them look smart to cite and poll and tell us we are going to lose.

            Not getting your point.

            My point is always that we not give up.

            yes, campaigns should use poll data on issues and tactics

            But what happens here is the win/lose numbers are thrown around all the time to discourage people or to satisfy some jimmy the Greek dream.