If I didn’t know better I’d think I’d been drinking. From the New York Times, and yes I usually refer to them as the DNC TalkingPointsMemo, but apparently some editors were out with hangovers today.
This story popped at an opportune time. We’ve been having an interesting discussion over here, a diary written by a brand new Redstater. It’s worth reading. Anyway, one of the points of discussion was mortgage modifications. My opinion – yes, I do have an occasional opinion – is that The BoyPresident™ is just trying to prop up the real estate market with a few hundred billion of our dollars and it’s a total waste of both time and money. Think of burning cash to stay warm on a bitter cold Phoenix winter night in the 60s.
The residential real estate market is a total mess. Pay no attention to any positive spin by the national realtor organizations, and if you need to know why just look at their newsletters from about 2004 through 2008. Bottom line, the market is buried in supply. MLS is choked, banks are holding REO off MLS in quantities about equal to what’s on MLS. God only knows how many people would love to sell for whatever reason but can’t because they’re upside down. Banks are holding off on trustee sales (foreclosures) because they can’t deal with the inventory they’ve got so we constantly hear stories of people living in homes for a couple of years and never making a payment. Banks loan portfolios are crap. Well, maybe they’re not quite that good. BofA is holding about 6% of their residential portfolio at 90 days delinquent. Wells Fargo is over 11%. Don’t look for those delinquencies to cure. The top five banks are holding almost $100 Billion in 90+ day delinquencies. And it’s rising fast. You can research the details here if you’re interested. Have alcohol handy.
Oh, and to throw another pebble on the pile, about 18% of FHA mortgages are delinquent. None of those properties have any equity. Option ARMS are going to adjust this year, mostly in the second half just before the election, and those are going to drive a stake through the heart of what’s left of the high end housing market. Lenders are going to raise the minimum credit score for an FHA loan from 620 to 660 in short order. If you’ve got a score below 660 and an application that’s not already approved, don’t expect to see it approved anytime soon. The net effect of raising the minimum score (remember FHA had no scoring requirements until about a year ago) will be to take out about 35% of the currently eligible buyers from the market.
OK, now to the NYT article, starting with the shocker of a headline:
U.S. Loan Effort Is Seen as Adding to Housing Woes
Followed by this:
The Obama administration’s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts now contend it has done more harm than good.
Since President Obama announced the program in February, it has lowered mortgage payments on a trial basis for hundreds of thousands of people but has largely failed to provide permanent relief. Critics increasingly argue that the program, Making Home Affordable, has raised false hopes among people who simply cannot afford their homes.
Emphasis is mine.
And then we get to the part that I’ve been harping on for years.
Mr. Katari contends that banks have been using temporary loan modifications under the Obama plan as justification to avoid an honest accounting of the mortgage losses still on their books. Only after banks are forced to acknowledge losses and the real estate market absorbs a now pent-up surge of foreclosed properties will housing prices drop to levels at which enough Americans can afford to buy, he argues.
[...]
As of mid-December, some 759,000 homeowners had received loan modifications on a trial basis typically lasting three to five months. But only about 31,000 had received permanent modifications — a step that requires borrowers to make timely trial payments and submit paperwork verifying their financial situation. [Note: trial modified loans are said to have default rates well in excess of 30%. There are no reliable published numbers on this and I don't expect to see any. MRB]
And then we get to the bottom line…
The biggest source of concern remains the growing numbers of underwater borrowers — now about one-third of all American homeowners with mortgages, according to Economy.com. The Obama administration clearly grasped the threat as it created its program, yet opted not to focus on writing down loan balances.
“This is a conscious choice we made, not to start with principal reduction,” Mr. Geithner told the Congressional Oversight Panel. “We thought it would be dramatically more expensive for the American taxpayer, harder to justify, create much greater risk of unfairness.”
Mr. Geithner’s explanation did not satisfy the panel’s chairwoman, Elizabeth Warren.
“Are we creating a program in which we’re talking about potentially spending $75 billion to try to modify people into mortgages that will reduce the number of foreclosures in the short term, but just kick the can down the road?” she asked, raising the prospect “that we’ll be looking at an economy with elevated mortgage foreclosures not just for a year or two, but for many years. How do you deal with that problem, Mr. Secretary?”A good question, Mr. Geithner conceded.
“What to do about it,” he said. “That’s a hard thing.”
And the bottom line, gentle reader, is that the asylum is being run by the inmates. I said, a couple of years ago, that if the government would stay out of “fixing” the market it would stabilize in about five years. A whole bunch of home owners would be renters (actually, most are simply “renting from the bank anyway”), the banks would take a pounding and real estate would be at market levels and could recover. At the time I estimated that if Uncle got involved the problem would last ten years. I was wrong. At this rate it will last at least twenty and the pain will be a whole lot greater than even I could have imagined.
It’s time, Timmy, to do the “hard thing”. That’s why you make the big bucks.
Jeff Emanuel
Neil Stevens
Fascinating.
acat (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 12:23AM EDT (link)I’ve never had an ARM. Never had an interest-only. Always put something (usually whatever I netted out of the prior house) down, so always had some equity. Barely made it out of the previous house – sold it in between the first and second big drops… and the house we’re in now is a long-term keeper with some improvement potential.
Still, every month I know the equity is dropping as the value evaporates, and the mortgage payment stays the same.
Depressing, but .. what else to do?
Mew
——

Caveat Suffragator
That was an interesting article
izoneguy (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 12:42AM EDT (link)That was an interesting article. When will the idiots in Congress wake-up to the fact that the Administration is incompetent ?
And as Obama keeps destroying the small business environment,
growing numbers of delinquent borrowers will simply lack enough income to afford their homes and must be eased out.
Those who had once simpered: “I don’t want to destroy the rich, I only want to seize a little of their surplus to help the poor, just a little, they’ll never miss it!” – then, later, had snapped: “The tycoons can stand being squeezed; they’ve amassed enough to last them for three generations” – then, later, had yelled: “Why should the people suffer while businessmen have reserves to last a year?” – now were screaming: “Why should we starve while some people have reserves to last a week?” – Atlas Shrugged
Sounds like the NYT had been reading your posts!
hawkpwr2000 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 12:53PM EDT (link)Very timely articel with the discussion we were having yesterday.
As several people have suggested, if a buyer can’t afford his house today, he is not going to be able to afford it a year from now…even with loan modification.
Especially not in this economy.
If somone is delinquent on the mortgage, they are also likely delinquent on other bills, taxes, car payments, etc. These bills aren’t going away.
It is unlikely that these homeowners are also paying for repairs and manitanence on their homes. So the value of the home is dropping even more.
MHA is just delaying the foreclosure process, and causing more damage
Please read Ethan’s real estate articles at examiner.com
www.examiner.com/x-31875-Macon-Real-Estate-Examiner?showbio
Visit his website at: www.warnerrobinsrealestateguy.com
...and must be eased out.
mbecker908 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 1:20PM EDT (link)The definition of mental masturbation.
OK, in most states the process works like this (or it takes a tad longer):
So, you have a financial disaster of some variety. Under current law you have a minimum of seven months to move out without making a payment. This administration wants to “ease” this how?
BTW, California “helped out” distressed homeowners in their state and foreclosures dropped dramatically. Until the extension expired and then guess what? Yep, a very sharp increase in foreclosures.
amen becker and I have said (and you too I think) that the faster
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 4:05PM EDT (link)the real estate markets can reach bottom, wich they must do before recovery, the better. Obama’s policies have slowed that process.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com and Charlotte Observer columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
It's like peeling a band-aid off
ceili_dancer (Diary) Tuesday, January 5th at 1:13AM EDT (link)If you have hairy arms(I do) and try to pull the band-aid off slowly all you get is prolonged pain and probably more damage than pulling it off quickly. Or, if you have had to wax anything, think 40 year old virgin, is it better to get tweezers and pluck them out one by one, or just get it over with and heal up. Sorry for the mental visuals.
As always, it's hard to comment on the inner workings of the Oba-maladministration
Flagstaff (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 1:19AM EDT (link)without sounding like a ‘hater.’ Perhaps it suffices to say that they behave typically short-sighted in housing matters as they do in everything they touch.
I understand they have now effectively taken over GMAC or are planning to. This could throw another monkey-wrench into the US auto market, far bigger than the dislocation caused by Cas for Clunkers because this will be company-specific.
Eventually, the facts will be so clear that even the NYT will have to get it right most of the time, instead of occasionally. By then, too late to do much more than try to mitigate the damage, which will probably not work either.
Buffett Rule #1: “Tax rates don’t matter if you don’t pay your taxes”
– Unnamed tax adviser to Warren Buffett, Leavenworth, KS, 2011
Buffett Rule #2: “A parrot in every pot and two Volts in every garage”– Jimmy Buffett, at a seance in Margaritaville, 1977
Oh, with cash for clunkers...
mbecker908 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 1:51PM EDT (link)A bunch of folk who had older cars that were PAID FOR, took them to their local dealership, traded them in for new cars (on which the price had just been raised) and took on car loans and greatly increased insurance bills.
First, my guess is that most of those folks couldn’t qualify for “A” paper. Just a guess, there are no published stats. Thus, their payments are going to be significantly higher than the “advertised rates”.
Second, given the current state of the economy, I wonder how many of those folks are going to be able to keep up their new payments and higher insurance costs.
Expect to see repos coming on the horizon.
This absolutely SUCKS...but it's true none the less
AceInTX (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 9:25AM EDT (link)San Antonio has one of the best markets in the country which means we suck less than everyone else….Our board of REALTORS has been diligent at keeping the market on a slow and steady growth path while other markets like Austin were going through huge boom and bust swings…but the last several years of Bush’s “Opportunity Society” saw a huge glut of builders coming into San Antonio and buying up every farm and ranch in site to build cookie cutter neighborhoods in. I couldn’t find enough tracts to sell to my Builder/Developer Clients. the Builders had to do an addendum to their contracts forcing buyers to agree not to live in their houses for two years before selling it because prices were rising so fast people were going to the bank to burrow the money on a new construction home and buy the time it was built they’d put it on the market and flip out of the deal with $20,000 profit. This lead to a huge bubble and San Antonio hasn’t even seen it burst yet. Now we’ve got more houses than there are buyers, less money being lent buy the banks, more foreclosures on the books as well as off….and we’re sinking fast.
Imagine how much worse it will get THIS year
bk (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 9:42AM EDT (link)Obama and the Dems will say any failure (in the unlikely event they admit anything failed) is because the program was too limited and we just need to spend more money to make it right.
And on top of that, 2010 is an election year, so they will do everything in their power to make things appear to be on an upswing by the summer. Screw 2011 – they can worry about it after the elections.
The adminsitration is NOT incompetent.
Kenny Solomon (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 9:58AM EDT (link)Everything they’ve done, are doing and will do is on purpose to collapse the nation so they can ‘save’ it and “fundamentally transform The United States”.
This is far bigger than one item and as far as real estate goes, yeah, the residential market is hanging on by a mere thread of micro-fiber.
But the commercial real estate market is a timer-already-set nuclear detonation at optimum air burst height.
Everything I’ve heard from people involved on all sides of commercial real estate translates to a one-word event: Titanic.
If you haven’t noticed, commercial real estate construction is basically non-existent compared to even a year ago.
Kenny, not only the "non-existent" commercial real estate....
penguin2 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 10:48AM EDT (link)construction, but the vacant commercial properties sitting idle everywhere and have been for some time. I don’t have the stats for available sq. footage, and my remarks are anecdotal, but I live in a strong military economic based area, and we have loads of empty strip malls and failed good name department stores, which are now vacant as well in the big malls, to say nothing of all the little empty slots in those malls.
I keep wondering how long a big commercial realty group or business can write off the taxes as a loss and still keep going.
Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills
Conservative Education: Suggested Reading List
Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots
If I could figure out where to put pics then link to 'em here, I'd show y'all some scary stuff.
Kenny Solomon (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 12:31PM EDT (link)The newer open-air strip malls here are at maybe 60% capacity for retailers. maybe 1 in 25 current construction sites are still going and all of those are at a highly reduced rate.
Just a few short years ago – maybe three, Broward County where I live was THE hub of growth here in Flori-duh.
Where the Office Depot I use is, they’re the only thing open – the other five retailers in the spaces went under in the past 12 months.
Our new town center construction site is completely shut down and a small part of the land gets used for a farmers market one day per month.
I can keep going, but it gets too depressing.
I’m seriously lucky to have a job right now – company I work for is a contractor to two school districts…… a small business…… real small, but we’re the top of the line – not bragging.
We install and program/service the surveillance systems and access controls……. You would think that’s a big thing right now, kind of essential.
The budget for one county was basically reset to zero and the other got cut at least 60%.
The company had over 25 people working at the beginning of November. There are now 12 of us,,,, including the owner.
Kenny, you are on target
blugrass Saturday, January 2nd at 12:38PM EDT (link)and it seems not too many are. How many areas are the trying to take, or have and each one has its own scape”GOAT” harry, nancy, timsie, janet what a list. His royal Obombness can whack em any o time and make it all better and a bunch of jollydogooders will suck it all up.
what a suckee bunch of dog pile
whrs mu squrrllgun Ma
I don't want to be on target........ except.......
Kenny Solomon (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 2:03PM EDT (link)…….except with my scary-looking toys that go bang.
Hey, with all this health care talk, it sure would be a shame if any of those companies failed due to any new daunting and overburdening regulations coming down from The Regulatory Nudger (Sunstein). Maybe teh gubmint will have to “invest” in the companies to ensure their survival as “independent” businesses and keep their insanely large amount of commercial real estate occupied and off the market.
Nah….. never gonna happen. After all, why would teh gubmint and our Dictator In Training Pants want to take over any businesses ? What could they possibly want in return ?
(Hey, is that snarky enough, or will anybody reading think I’m completely and totally serious ?)
The gist of this article is that our tax $$$ are being used to prevent "affordable housing", right?
David123 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 2:05PM EDT (link)If/when the market correctshousing prices come down [become "affordable"], right? Some people get foreclosed out of houses they can’t/won’t pay for and banks lose money on bad mortgages [that they maybe shouldn’t have issued in the first place. But there’s been a ton of tax $$ given to banks, so even if they lose money they shouldn’t go bankrupt.
David123
Question on linking to a diary
hawkpwr2000 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 2:39PM EDT (link)mbecker,
I am writing a short article on the MHA for examiner.com.
My question is if it’s ok to link to a diary in an outside website, for example examiner.com?
More to the point…do members here want random/outside people reading diaries?
I would like to offer a link in the article for people to read some reaction to the NY times article.
thanks
Please read Ethan’s real estate articles at examiner.com
www.examiner.com/x-31875-Macon-Real-Estate-Examiner?showbio
Visit his website at: www.warnerrobinsrealestateguy.com
The answer to all of those questions is yes.
mbecker908 (Diary) Saturday, January 2nd at 2:50PM EDT (link)Actually, like it or not, anytime anybody posts anything on a blog it becomes public domain. Goes for Redstate, Kos, whereever.
Just provide a link and remember “fair use” and have at it.
As I've been saying for over a year now ...
ZootSuit (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 9:51AM EDT (link)When the housing bubble burst, the government’s response was, “Blow Harder!”
I would say that any idiot could tell you that that would not work but, truthfully, I don’t think the idiots in the White House could.
***** Unrepentant African-American nationalist, Unapologetic African-American conservative!
55555
Kenny Solomon (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 10:04AM EDT (link)That’s about the bestest most gooder description I’ve heard.
Everyone, especially me, keeps usin’ all them big kollej woidz, when we all know we can say much more with less bandwidth.
Cheers and thanks, Zoot !
Thanks, I actually first used that phrase to explain the situation to some liberal friends
ZootSuit (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 10:12AM EDT (link)And believe it or not, they got it!
(As a side note, a couple of them no longer like Obama. It’s just that they still like Republicans even less.)
***** Unrepentant African-American nationalist, Unapologetic African-American conservative!
David123, seems health care will become more costly
blugrass Sunday, January 3rd at 10:42AM EDT (link)with OHarrrrrycare if the housing mess trashes out and work is scarce, and money is not available will housing be affordable again? Just asking.
MA load upthu scattur’gun
Secret to fixing the housing crisis....Pirates!
hawkpwr2000 (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 4:08PM EDT (link)Came across this headline in the New York Times…
Pirate Cash Suspected Cause of Kenya Property Boom
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Property prices in Nairobi are soaring, and Somali pirates are getting the blame.
“The hike in real estate prices in the Kenyan capital has prompted a public outcry and a government investigation this month into property owned by foreigners. The investigation follows allegations that millions of dollars in ransom money paid to Somali pirates are being invested in Kenya, Somalia’s southern neighbor and East Africa’s largest economy.
Even as housing prices have dropped sharply in the United States, prices in Nairobi have seen two- and three-fold increases the last half decade.”
__________
Unfortunately, we have our own pirates, but they are not helping our economy.
Please read Ethan’s real estate articles at examiner.com
www.examiner.com/x-31875-Macon-Real-Estate-Examiner?showbio
Visit his website at: www.warnerrobinsrealestateguy.com
This really isn't from The Onion. --- It's an AP story, researched and everything.
Kenny Solomon (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 4:42PM EDT (link)http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/sns-ap-af-kenya-pirate-property,0,3897058.story
The entire thing could beco………
Every single one of th…….
Those mothe……..
I can’t think of anything…. not even snark.
I gotta go to the range again.
Ethan, that's at least a 10. Heh. nt
mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, January 3rd at 7:22PM EDT (link)I'm hoping for a localized commercial real estate crash...
revivefederalism (Diary) Tuesday, January 5th at 3:21AM EDT (link)Centered on the headquarters of the NY Times
I was under the impression that The Fed had to do something
jayburd (Diary) Tuesday, January 5th at 5:46PM EDT (link)about the money supply they massively increased to prop up banks and grow government through the phony stimulus bill. Otherwise there will be significant inflation which would hurt distressed borrowers even more as well as new purchasers. And we know what higher interest rates will do to the default rate. Deflation it seems, would wipe out equity. And it seems to me that with the massive bank bailout, they can just bide their time until the housing market collapses and come in and pic up the pieces. They (at least the golden boys) really don’t have to do anything except twiddle with cash until the bottom arrives. Oh, it’s our cash by the way.
One of my heroes- Ralph Smeed’s blog- http://smeedonstate-ism.com/index.htm
“What’s the matter? Don’t you want to win the war?” – Capt. John Birch
“If the Nation can issue a dollar bond it can issue a dollar bill.
The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good also. The
difference between the bond and the bill is that the bond lets the
money broker collect twice the amount of the bond and an additional 20%.Whereas the currency, the honest sort provided by the Constitution pays nobody but those who contribute in some useful way. It is absurd to say our Country can issue bonds and cannot issue currency. Both are promises to pay, but one fattens the usurer and the other helps the People.” – Thomas A. Edison
This brings up a discussion I had last night...
Raven (Diary) Wednesday, January 6th at 10:24PM EDT (link)We have the Fed printing and printing and printing, ad nauseum…
This is going to lead to…
High inflation, right? Perhaps even “hyper-inflation.”
We also have the rest of the world seeking security in the Euro in case the Dollar folds.
Simultaneously, we have England (the driving economy behind the value of the Euro), threatening to withdraw from the E.U. and the Euro. I am SO watching those upcoming elections…!
Let’s assume all of this actually happens:
1)The dollar crashes due to inflation and
2) England withdraws from the E.U. causing the Euro to crash.
What does that leave the world with?
Only 1 note worth the paper it’s printed on: The Pound Sterling.
England could very well save us all if they carry out their threats…
…sorry for the threadjack, folks…
“If you do not have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.”
Luke 22:36
The upside of the article is that banks
Raven (Diary) Wednesday, January 6th at 10:19PM EDT (link)Are reducing the number of qualified borrowers to those most likely to pay on the loans (FICA scores of 660 and up).
Those with lower scores either have bad credit (won’t pay on loans) or no credits (don’t take out loans and just pay cash).
“If you do not have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.”
Luke 22:36