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Hmmm. Interesting results over there…

By: mbecker908 (Diary)  |  September 2nd, 2011 at 11:02 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

At HotAir…

A little background first. I think it’s common knowledge that I don’t like “candidate specific” polling this far out and I absolutely hate internet polls. So, I will be making no claims about the efficacy of this one. But it’s interesting nonetheless.

HotAir tends to be home for lots of fans of Sarah Palin. I’m not accusing HotAir of being biased or being in the Palin Camp, only that lots of her fans (not necessarily Shriners, just fans) seem to hang out there. And it’s reflected in their monthly GOP Presidential polling results. Palin has come in first in their poll every month for a very long time, I think it’s safe to say every poll, but I’m not sure about that. I am sure that she’s been way ahead of the crowd in every poll I’ve seen at HotAir. Until today.

Palin’s numbers dropped for the second consecutive month, but the news is that Perry’s numbers have not only overtaken Palin but are higher than she’s ever been at 48% of respondents favoring the three term Governor from Texas. Palin is still holding onto second place in the HotAir poll by a wide margin at 32%.

Equally interesting is the second round where the pollsters ask for your choice if your first choice isn’t running. Perry comes in first there too and Palin drops to number four.

I’ll be interested to see the commentary after the next couple of debates, we’ll likely find out if Perry is a flash in the pan or if he really has “the mo”.

COMMENTS

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  • azaeroprof

    Hey, I’m an engineer. I even plotted my wife’s contractions for our first-born. She still tells that story.

    The results are not real surprising. The interesting thing I see is that Palin’s support, even considering the drop in the last 2 months, is pretty much right where it was at the beginning of the year. Perry’s rise seems to come at the expense of Cain, Bachmann and several of the lower-tier candidates. I interpret this as folks seeing Perry as the most viable (I hate the word ‘electable’) alternative to Romney.

    If Palin does jump in, there will be a battle to be the anti-Romney. Right now, those odds favor Perry. But he hasn’t yet had the media colonoscopy that Palin has had. If he comes through that OK, then he’s in good shape. If they find any ugly polyps, Palin would be in line to gather up his supporters (assuming she hadn’t self-destructed by that point).

    As far as the Palinites go, they will remain faithful to her until the end, whenever that is. If she doesn’t run, I see virtually all of them jumping to Perry and he becomes a juggernaut at that point. I think most of us are comfortable with Perry, but are waiting to see if he survives the initial round of scrutiny. I have no illusions that he is more electable than she is, but a few big mistakes could change that. For our sake, I hope he doesn’t make any!

    • aesthete

      would be more accurate than “more viable”: I’ve never really gotten the impression from Palin fans that viability was as big a concern for them as perceived conservatism, especially as regards Palin v Romney.

    • acat

      I wonder if there’s some “placeholder” effect driving this. That is, the idea that some percentage of Palin’s supporters have been waiting for the real candidate, and think that they see him in Perry…

      I note that Perry effectively took support from pretty much everybody in this poll – every bar ticks down at the far right -it’s just most noticeable for Palin.

      Mew

    • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

      I doubt the media is going to do much in terms of ripping Perry, TX is a big and hostile media market for conservatives and Perry has a long history of fighting back directly. See the couple of instances already in his campaign for example.

      To my thinking, the next two debates are going to make or break him. If he does really well, I think all of the marginal candidates are out and will be supporting Perry. If he’s just OK, the marginal candidates are still out but will be silent. If he bombs, it’s a new day and Palin has a real opening.

      We’ll see, and it’s going to be really interesting.

      • rightwingmom52

        If Palin and Perry are indeed good friends, is it a stretch to think they’ve talked strategy? I’ve wondered if Palin is waiting to announce to see how Perry does in the debates. If he does well, she can endorse him and continue doing what she’s doing (which I like by the way). If he makes any big mistakes, she can enter the race and draw heat off of him and even other candidates because the media and libs will focus on her. Just a thought.

        • acat

          If Palin jumps in because Perry stumbles, it does take the heat off him.

          She’d have to have a way out, a way to shift her followers back to Perry at a future point, though .. otherwise we end up with Candidate Romney.

          Mew

          • azaeroprof

            Here are the 4 possibilities as I see them today:

            1. Palin gets in. Perry does well, Palin ultimately bows out and endorses Perry.
            2. Palin get in. Perry flops. Palin becomes the anti-Romney and we have a battle.
            3. Palin stays out. Perry does well, swamps Romney quickly.
            4. Palin stays out. Perry flops, Romney wins easily.

            I think the most likely scenario is #1, and as a Palinite, I’m perfectly OK with that scenario. The second most likely is #3. I’m happy with that one as well, but it concerns me. It would send Perry to the general election as a not-well-tested national candidate. Having Palin in the race as a formidable, yet friendly, sparring partner will IMHO prepare him better for the all-out war he will get from Obama and his MSM minions.

            #4 is my ultimate nightmare scenario. It will leave us with an unexcited base, another wishy-washy candidate, and someone I don’t really trust in the White House.
            #2 would make for the best theater and would likely end up with a Romney/Palin or Palin/Romney ticket.

            There are of course, additional scenarios if Perry doesn’t do very well but doesn’t flop either, but I’ll wait until Palin announces one way or the other before I start proliferating scenarios.

          • rightwingmom52

            …

          • acat

            If Perry and Palin are both in for Iowa, then …

            #5 Perry and Palin both attract some support, split the conservatives, and Romney wins.

            Mew

          • azaeroprof

            But I think it’s unlikely. Perry’s got so much stronger of an ‘electability’ argument that I don’t see Palin approaching his support unless she does particularly well and he does at least mediocre if not badly. And if she has had that good a 4-5 months, then it’s a whole new ballgame and I won’t dare to predict what will happen.

            But I really don’t see Romney going any higher than he was before Perry’s entry (~25%). Right now he has no real competition for the “squishy middle”, so I’d say 70-75% of GOP voters are in the “Oh God, not Romney” category and will rally to the strongest conservative in the race.

          • rightwingmom52

            (and assuming she wouldn’t well herself), if this was a planned strategy between her and Perry, if it worked and Perry pulled ahead, I could see her getting out and throwing support to Perry. After all, she’s already been called a quitter, so that wouldn’t be anything new. Maybe the pay-off would be a position in the new administration which would be a fun thing to watch considering how much the left hates to see her rewarded in any way. The bonus is that I don’t think Perry much cares what the media thinks and would enjoy sticking it to them as well.

  • aesthete

    Something must be wrong…

    • acat

      making it hard to vote multiple times. I still think it overstates support for Luap Nor, just .. not as much as it could without the multiple vote block.

      Mew

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    and her bandwagon thins out.

  • Raven

    I could have sworn she promised a “big announcement that no one will be able to miss” on September 3rd.
    Am I imagining that?
    Where’s the announcement?

    • azaeroprof

      She said that Sept. 3 would be a major address, but just about a week ago said definitively that there would be no announcement today.
      In a separate interview and/or question (I don’t recall which), she said that if/when she announces her candidacy, you wouldn’t be able to miss it.
      Originally, I thought she could wait until mid-October to announce. But Perry’s late entry and vault to the top of the polls leaves her in a position where (at least I think) she needs to announce a decision in the next 1-2 weeks.

    • Scope

      some Palin staffer said a few weeks ago that she wouldn’t be announcing a run today, but would give her supporters an indication of where she was headed. By not making any comittments today, but saying “This is what my plan is” she has kept her supporters hanging on yet again. There are no more ideas after her speech if she will or she won’t.

      The last thing I would have expected from her today were attacks on the front runner, and, one she campaigned for and supported for his Gov. race. That is if she really was going after Perry, and it was not just media speculation.

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