And this one could be a BIG one.

As you will recall, after getting the hay bashed out of their heads last week by Scott Walker, two memes came out of the election. The first, “we was outspent”, I deconstructed here. The second, “yeah but Obama is beating the pants off Walker” crumbled today.

Let me be clear, I don’t put a whole lot of credence in polling this far out. Honestly we don’t even have a really good handle on what the biggest issues will be, other than I doubt the economy will be replaced as #1, the only question is how big a hole we’re going to be in come September/October. I’m not writing this to predict a Romney win in Wisconsin, although I think that’s a very probable outcome. I’m writing to rub in for last weeks story lines.

Let’s get a sample of the swill that was being tossed around just a few days ago. First, from The Daily Beast and Michael Tomasky:

Forget this media silliness: Wisconsin will be blue in November. […]

Folks, if ever there was a day in the history of Wisconsin polling that should have shown Romney within spitting distance of Obama–or even ahead, given the obviously massive pro-Walker turnout–it should have been yesterday, which was the biggest and most enthusiastic day for Republican politics in recent state history. Yes, Romney should have been ahead, or at the very least tied. Instead, the same electorate that gave Walker this huge win said it would reelect the president handily. On the presidential level, Wisconsin is a blue state.

Then there’s the LA Times:

Voters on Tuesday said by 51% to 45% that they would vote for Obama if the presidential election were being held today. They also said they thought Obama would do better than Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, at handling the economy.

The Times did note one important thing that reinforces my position that all the money spent in Wisconsin by both sides would have been better spent buying Mrs908 a new house and another Hawaiian vacation. Heck, there’d have even been a few bucks left over.

The exit poll results also indicate that much of the spending in the recall campaign – more than $60 million disclosed to date – was probably wasted. About 90% of voters said their minds were made up before the campaign began.

Then there’s the Christian Science Monitor weighing in:

Wisconsin voters also preferred Mr. Obama over Mr. Romney to deal with the economy, 43 percent to 37 percent, according to the ABC News exit poll. On “helping the middle class,” Obama beat Romney, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, 47 percent to 36 percent.

Obama’s lead over Romney is smaller than his 14-point victory over John McCain four years ago in Wisconsin, a battleground state that political observers still tend to see as leaning Democratic.

OK, got that? Nothing to see here, move right along.

Except today, there is something to see, at least for those who were willing to invest so much in ink and pixels proclaiming that Obama was going to be just fine in Wisconsin based on the exit polling, which by-the-way missed Walker’s margin of victory by about five points.

Today, along comes Scott Rasmussen with a bucket of cold water.

Mitt Romney now leads President Obama for the first time in Wisconsin where the president’s support has fallen to its lowest level to date.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Prior to this survey, Obama’s support in the state has ranged from 45% to 52%, while Romney has earned 41% to 45%. […]

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters in Wisconsin approve of the job Obama is doing, while 52% disapprove. These findings include 27% who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. These ratings are comparable to those measured nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

I really don’t have a whole lot to say about this, certainly with respect to a prediction, but with reference to the soothsayers, I would pass this along… HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Heh. Hmmm.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Gonna be an interesting summer.