Credit Default Swaps, Free Markets, Canaries, and Ostriches


Greece today, Portugal, Spain, and Italy presently. Europe is close to the edge. And we know this how? There is a canary in the coal mine known as the credit default swap (CDS). As anyone who reads the financial press knows, CDS’s were created by the devil to help corrupt pseudo-capitalists steal from honest, hardworking capitalists. They amount to cynical bets that honorable capitalists and socially responsible governments will default on their financial obligations. Many famous pundits and politicians write books extolling the virtues of capitalism, yet at every opportunity they trash actual free markets that deliver bad news.

The CDS marketplace is barely free and transparent. Only insiders get to trade in it. Yet even with all the restrictions, the poor little CDS canary is singing its mournful dirge  If only we could shoot the damn canary, the problems would all go away. Investors would be lining  up to lend money to the PIGS (four nations) which cannot possibly keep all the promises they have made to their citizens. But the canary’s song is of default and economic chaos. The ostriches who mold public opinion blame the messengers as they always do.

The good ol’ USA stands ready to bail out Europe. The proposed financial reform act has some good ideas in it, but as a whole, it appears designed to move Wall Street to Shanghai. I propose an amendment. Starting in 2020, the official language of the United States should be Chinese. And the official language of Europe? Why, Arabic, of course.


Open letter to the Republican House Policy Committee


I’m very disappointed in your lack of interest in ideas from anyone not already on your staff. No interest in  information on budget deficits, none on health care, none on financial “reform”.  Not even the courtesy of a reply.

You just keep plodding along with the same old failed ideas that the American People have rejected time and again.   The only sensible thing I have seen is Paul Ryan’s analysis of entitlements, but that is much too honest to publicize extensively.

Not that you are any different from other GOP “leaders” or “policy makers”.  I get the impression that the Party’s top goal (tied with defeating Democrats). is marginalizing Sarah Palin, rather than in tackling hard issues with new ideas. The deficit towers over all other issues. Crippling Wall street is surely not going to help anyone but Shanghai’s nascent financial powerhouses.

I have always thought that working within the GOP was the best way to preserve our liberty. The Tea Party as an alternative looks more attractive every day. I’ll still be supporting selective Republican candidates over their dangerous opponents. But the opportunity to reshape the national debate is unlikely to recur any time soon.

Pop quiz: Name three asset classes that are not legitimately describable as derivative products.

Too hard?    Name one.


A letter to Melissa Bean, Blue Dog


I just sent an email to Melissa. Probably not a good use of my time.

I was very disappointed in your vote for the health care bill.

It seems that you are just another soldier in Nancy Pelosi’s army. You care more about her opinion than your constituents’ opinions.

The irony is that this bill will likely never be implemented. It is the spark that will ignite a generation of polarization and acrimony in American politics.  Whoever ultimately wins, it will leave a hard core of bitter citizens. Not since the Civil War has the nation been so divided. It cannot end well.

No doubt you believe you did the right thing. After the inevitable court challenges and elections fought over repeal, health care will be worse than before. You will find that the CBO has underestimated the costs and over-estimated the revenues. At a time when entitlements are driving the entire free world into financial disaster, you have gambled with the future of America.

Next step: Kill the rest of the economy with an energy bill whose only purpose is to line the pockets of traders allied with your party. Betray Israel. Betray all our allies. Appease Iran. Mortgage our future to China.

And all you will have to show for it will be the satisfaction that you did Nancy’s bidding, and Rahm’s. I beg you to wake up.


How angry are you, and not just at the Democrats?



st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) }
<!– /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:”"; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-fareast-font-family:”Times New Roman”;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} –>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:”Table Normal”;
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:”";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:”Times New Roman”;}

Is anyone else here sick of the way Fox News has been sliding ever closer to the msm? Last night, Geraldo could hardly contain his glee at the events transpiring. Krauthammer is considered a conservative. Yeah right. That smooth soft-spoken style he uses to assure us he and only he understands what is going on is getting old and annoying. Should we work for repeal? According to him, it would be a waste of time. I’m sick of “public” conservatives who go to all the right cocktail parties and hobnob with enemies of the Constitution. I am uncomfortable calling people out publicly like this, but it is enough already.

For all the talk here about RINOs, when the chips were all in the pot, every Republican in Congress voted with us. Poor Michael Steele gets no respect from RedState. Yet he was on the air calling for repeal and with a mission to fire Nancy Pelosi.

Let’s concentrate our fire where it belongs. Every Democratic politician is presumptively an enemy. Don’t eat with them. Don’t drink with them. Don’t tickle them in the gym.

You can see the Democrats’ strategy emerging. Oh…people will be so happy that their 25 year old slackers can remain on the family insurance policy. Can’t they now?

The one internal criticism we should take to heart is that neither our GOP leadership nor we have been able to adequately respond to the many lies told by the “progressives”. I can’t get any traction for my call to stop taking the word of the CBO. I have heard the talking point that 45,000 Americans die each year BECAUSE they have inadequate insurance. Has anyone publicly challenged this lie? I haven’t seen it My apologies to our best commentators if I missed it.,

Do you really want to save babies? I remember 40 or so years ago the impact that the “Silent Scream” had on me. I lived in Ann Arbor at the time and a pro-abortion  referendum failed. Sadly, Roe swept that away. Imagine what a creative conservative film-maker could do with avatar technology. We don’t have to only play defense.

Don’t just chide Democrats who seem to think Jerusalem belongs to the Arabs; curse them. Next time some clowns claim that only a trillion dollar bailout could have saved the world banking system, challenge them. Next time the feds violate the Constitution by unilaterally voiding legal contracts between bondholders and publicly traded companies, call it what it is: theft!.

Don’t just be skeptical about climate change. It is total crap. We need to freeze all the initiatives which prevent us from using our coal and shale resources to attain energy independence. Oh yeah…it might even help the economy. lol

Iran has been training Taliban to kill our soldiers. That, my friends, is an ACT OF WAR. As long as we tolerate that, we will never defeat the terrorists. Should we invade Iran? Of course not. A few days of shock and awe will get them to think twice about what they’re doing. And no help rebuilding should be offered.

No doubt, this rant is incomplete. Please stay angry.

Category:

Why does catastrophic insurance get such a bad rap?


I remember some twenty years ago Dan Rostenkowski, at the peak of his power,  being booed and chased by medicare recipients for supporting legislation which provided an extraordinary safety net to the elderly, including unlimited care, a drug benefit, and other protections. As best I can remember, they opposed it because the affluent elderly would have had to pay an increased premium to partially cover the new benefits.

The legislation was repealed. I hate to support a liberal initiative, but it is too bad the bill was repealed.

It has always seemed to me that the one area where the federal government ought to step in is that of catastrophic coverage. No private insurer can take on an unlimited liability in case of a new pandemic or natural disaster. or even the few unfortunate individuals with horrible chronic ailments. A government backed “umbrella” policy may not be pure capitalism, but seems in the spirit of of conservative thought.

Ironically, the current proposed legislation seems to address catastrophes with one hand while the other hand takes it away with IMAB and QALY (aka death panel). Lifetime caps and  canceled policies will be a thing of the past. So too with restrictions based on health or pre-existing conditions. Sure you can get coverage but the catch is that Peter Singer will decide who gets to use that coverage.

Nice trade, America. You get a fanatical death cultist instead of insurance companies who just want to make a buck.

Whether your insurance is provided by private insurance companies with government regulation, or a public option, what counts is the contract. Should insurance cover pedicures and massages? Most people would say no. Should it cover unlimited all out treatment of cancer? You betcha!

A few clear-cut standardized contracts with carefully crafted language (in English) would be a good idea. Additional features can be optional.

Private insurance can handle the pricing of those contracts. It should be made easy to form a nonprofit or mutual insurance company. Interstate competition should be allowed. The one thing that will give potential investors or customers pause is the hard-to-price catastrophe insurance. Let the government be the re-insurer of last resort.

Having a backstop on losses will permit Insurance companies to offer no-cancellation insurance. Life insurers do that today.  The idea is that once you are insured as a member of a particular risk pool, you have a perpetual right to remain insured as a member of that pool. If you wish to change policies, the new company must continue that coverage if they want your business. The government can offer some protection against bankrupt companies or other financial tricks.

Since the umbrella coverage risk is spread over all citizens, it is reasonable that tf be financed by taxation. Perhaps, a new payroll tax would make sense.

Having addressed cancellation, limits and pre-existing conditions, there is still the question of arbitrary rejection of claims.

The first step is to demand a list of non-covered procedures or treatments, written in plain English. Anything not explicitly excluded should be covered. Frivolous rejections should be severely penalized.

The details of deductibles and copays and premiums should be left to the free market.

I bet a few clever recent ivy league lawyers could write a bill of ten pages or less covering these provisions.

A separate bill providing some sort of subsidy to those who can’t afford the market rate can provide as much welfare as the voters want. Preferably it should be in the form of a tax credit or deduction.

That’s another ten pages or so.

The defense rests.

Category:

I heard Steven Moore on Fox News make a joke about how you can


have more medical care for less money by paying for China’s care too.

I’m not saying he read my diary entry here from October, but I  thought it was pretty funny.

Alas, the rest of RedState seems to have ignored it. (pout, pout).

http://www.redstate.com/mikerazar/2009/10/28/a-brilliant-idea-courtesy-of-the-cbo/

One more thing…In all this health care coverage, has anyone seen, heard or read a single journalist who has been careful to distinguish between annual deficit projections, ten year deficit projections, and the national debt.


When it comes to the health care debate no lie is too brazen.


The CBO is either venal or incompetent, maybe both. There is no conceivable way to cover more people, improve care for everybody, train more doctors and save money, all at the same time. Haven’t these clowns ever heard of the law of supply and demand? Every failed socialist/communist regime learned that lesson the hard way. Citizens will learn that lesson the hard way when their cancer is being treated by a nurse practitioner and grandma is denied an angioplasty.

Even without the health care bill the ten year deficit will be two to three times higher than the CBO projects.Their math wouldn’t stand up in a decent undergraduate stat. course.

Too bad the average journalist hates math and loves to trust self-proclaimed experts. No problem. They are really good at ferreting out sexual misconduct between consenting adults. And even better at whiny moralizing. Too bad we can’t at least get the spouse-cheating journalists to shut up.

And maybe even require a little math and science education for them too.

Category: ,

The Great Reconciliation Scam


The Democrats may be immoral and corrupt, but they are not stupid. Here is their REAL PLAN.

1. House passes Senate bill with no changes, after promising Stupak and others that the Senate will use reconciliation to fix it, IF NECESSARY.

2. The bill goes to a conference committee, where some “minor corrections” are recommended.

3. They go to the Senate floor with an amendment to the bill to ban public funding of abortion.

4. The trap is set. A somber Democratic leadership apologizes for trying to use reconciliation and puts it up to the Senate in the usual way.

5. Case 1: Republicans filibuster the changes and the bill goes to the White House with public funding for abortion alive and well. Republicans are skewered by the left for their hypocrisy in VOTING FOR abortion.

Case 2: Republicans decide they can’t in good conscience permit case 1, and vote unanimously to block the funding of abortions. The bill goes to the White House without public funding for abortion.

Am I being paranoid? Do we have a counter strategy?


How should we regulate capitalism?


Hey populists! Do you want to know how to punish the fat cats? Put the shareholders in charge of the companies they supposedly own and force managers to act as fiduciaries should. Government regulators are either ignorant or venal. People with their own money at stake have a genuine interest in getting it right.

It was not naked greed that caused the meltdown; it was greed dressed up in sophisticated embezzlement clothing. Remember, managers aren’t intrinsically capitalists; owners and creditors are the capitalists.

And one more thing. As the left likes to point out, corporations aren’t people. A bail out helps some real people (the con artists in management) at the expense of some other real people (the suckers, aka bondholders and unborn taxpayers). Unwinding complex transactions may be painful, but it would not bring the system down. All it would do is spread the wealth (lol) from the losers to the winners. No actual wealth would be lost.

And while I’m at it, mark-to-market also had nothing to do with it. I don’t care what Steve Forbes and Newt Gingrich say.

If this doesn’t set off a discussion, I give up. :)


IMAB + QALY = Death Panel


ONE MORE TRY…

I am probably too upset to write coherently on this topic. I apologize in advance. I will try to include all the relevant facts and an anecdote or two.

I’m betting the lame street media have never told you about QALYs and IMAB. If Fox news has, I must have missed it. Maybe they should spend less time interviewing stupid “experts” on Tiger Woods and sex addiction. (Full disclosure: I was addicted to the dream of it as a teenager).

A QALY is a “quality adjusted life year”. It is a mathematical measure (model) of life expectancy adjusted by an expert’s opinion on how good one’s life is likely to be and for how long.

http://heapol.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/21/5/402

The pure mathematics behind the QALY is weak; the applied math is nonexistent. The people who developed it are a disgrace to their profession and immoral to boot. Rahm and Zeke Emmanuel love it; Peter Singer worships it. He especially likes to apply it to young children before and after birth.

IMAB stands for “Independent Medical Advisory Board”. Nancy Pelosi (censored crude sexual reference) on it. The lame streeters never heard of it. Democratic talking points never mention it. Republican talking points never mention it. Erick has pointed it out several times here, getting few comments. So have I.

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2009/12/22/making-the-death-panels-permanent/

http://www.redstate.com/mikerazar/2009/12/07/the-palin-principle/

IMAB is established in the health bill. Though I don’t completely understand how, it is out of order to ever bring it up again in Congress if the bill passes.

IMAB will use QALYS and other ethically challenged criteria to determine who gets what care.

IMAB with QALY looks like a death panel, sounds like a death panel, walks like a death panel, and functions like a death panel. But Democratic Congressmen and left wing pundits assure us there are no death panels in the bill. Keith Olbermann uses his dying father as a prop to assure us that there is a life panel in the bill. We are fascists even to question it. He is referring to a harmless provision that doctors can be paid for optional end of life counseling. He claims that’s what we are referring to. But that is a cynical lie. As conservatives the last thing we would do is to discourage consultations with doctors, clergy, and families on these private matters. What we object to is turning the decision over to an unelected panel of political hacks whose decisions cannot be appealed.

This morning on Fox and Friends, the usually sharp Steve Ducey fawned over that weasel Anthony Weiner who swore that there are no death panels in the bill, and whoever says so is a liar. Don’t the Fox producers do any preparation? And Fox is by far the best.

Maybe Beck or Limbaugh has raised it. If so, I missed it.

We can’t just blame Fox. Correct me if I am wrong, but even our best GOP leaders, people like Cantor, Ryan, McCotter and Bachman, have failed to make this a central issue.

It is not too late. If the staffs of any GOP Congressmen or other leaders or commentators read this, please do something.