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Rick Santorum surges in Iowa due to the support of the ”Tea Party”

By: mikeymike143 (Diary)  |  January 4th, 2012 at 02:43 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are tied in a very close race to win the Iowa Republican caucus. And the lesson that was learned in 2010, was once again on display in 2012.  People constantly talked about how well financed and organized the Romney and Paul campaigns were, but us tea partiers turn out to vote!! And elections are decided by votes, not by who has the biggest staff or the largest war chest.

Site polling showed that Santorum received the most tea party votes. Iowans that were seeking ”a candidate with high moral character” also made Rick their top choice.

So what happens now? I see Mitt winning in New Hampshire and Newt or Rick taking down South Carolina. That leaves Florida as the key state in this race. My home state is Florida and I am active in politics as part of Tea Party Fort Lauderdale so I will give my opinion of who will win in Florida, and why.

The tea party movement is very strong in Florida. And the 2010 election results will show that. Tea party favored candidates knocked off well funded establishment Republican candidates in every primary race from governor(Rick Scott) to senator(Marco Rubio). This is also the state that gave Herman Cain the big bump with his Orlando straw poll win.

I think the race will be down to four candidates by then. Romney, Gingrich, Paul and Santorum. I will review all four candidates.

Mitt Romney will do well with seniors, but being ”the establishment favorite” is normally the kiss of death in Florida. Just ask Charlie Crist.

Newt is very bright and will hold his own here. And I see him and Mitt fighting it out for second place.

A racist loon like Ron Paul will not win in Florida. Unless they change the primary rules to let Al-Qaeda members vote.

That leaves Rick Santorum. Florida is the type of state where you want to be the ”three legged stool of conservatism” that Ronald Reagan talked about. The tea party in Florida tends to be really conservative about social and national defense issues . IT ALSO OVERWHELMINGLY VOTES REPUBLICAN!!!! And Rick Santorum is exactly the type of candidate that conservatives in Florida will support.

With Perry and Bachmann dead I can see the majority of those conservative voters going over to Santorum.  And with a Florida win, I think that Santorum will pick up all the financing and organizational staff that he needs to win the Republican primary.

SANTORUM IN 2012!!!

COMMENTS

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  • LibertyWins

    great post my friend! After our little scuffle its nice to know we are on the same boat after all. Let’s bury the hatchet!

    Thank God our prayers were heard about Ron Paul. His brief delusion with the Presidency is thankfully over. Missed the bullet on that one!

    It appears my man, Rick Perry, is done. He will likely drop out no later than losing South Carolina. Therefore, I reluctantly withdraw my endorsement of Rick Perry. A great man, just not his time.

    It appears that Rick Santorum is the last Anti-Romney and Anti-Paul standing, not to mention the last true conservative remaining. Therefore, I officially endorse Rick Santorum for our nominee for President of the United States. Santorum 2012!

    Keep up the good work in Florida! It may come down to Florida to lay the foundation for a Santorum nomination.

    I happily recommend your post!

    PS- Keep it classy brother! Please stop with the all CAPITALS! It just distracts from a great message.

    • tonotisto

      4 weeks or so ago

  • http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

    As always – you are a terrific writer and have the curve on Ron Paul too.

    Your Florida thoughts are especially on target!

    • mikeymike143

      and my primary purpose in politics will always be to oppose that racist loon and his nutjob cult followers!!!!

      • mikeymike143

        rick will do very well in both south carolina and florida

        • Scope

          with those talking about the SC primaries, including a discussion going on right now on CNN, SC has a major number of Evangelicals, but, they will not make their minds up on the social issues alone. They pride themselves on supporting the most socially conservative candidate that can win. I just heard again that they have a large population of Veterans, which I listed in another post as being near to 400,000. John McCain was not the most socially conservative candidate over Huckabee in 2008 and he won there. I remember reading where the Veterans went big for McCain. Perry already has much of their support. If Santorum doesn’t get money quickly, and a decent ground campaign in SC, chances are he won’t win there. Do you think Santorum can get all that together in two weeks, especially the ground game? Perry’s is already set up.

          • mikeymike143

            and if this was the 2008 primary i would 100% agree with you.

            but the one factor that santorum has going for him is ”tea party” support. i am very active in the tea party movement and we are specifically set up to operate without an ”already in place ground force” and ”lots of money for advertizing”.

            and charlie crist and mike castle both can attest to our success at being able to do that. : )

          • thirstyboots

            South Carolina is where insurgents – regardless if they become insurgents by winning in Iowa or New Hampshire.

            It crushed Huckabee in 08, McCain in 00, Buchanan in 96, Robertson in 88, etc.

            People underestimate how establishment oriented are South Carolina republicans (a consequence of the fact that the GOP is a dominant party at local level). They’ve voted for the eventual nominee every single year. Never failed one. Regardless of how moderate or conservative the candidate is.

            I’m fairly sure they’ll vote overwhelmingly for Romney. He was the one leading before the Gingrich surge and now with Gingrich imploding he’ll get back to the lead.

          • thirstyboots

            “where insurgents go to die”.

            Plus, ideologically South Carolina republicans aren’t very committed. They can vote for a conservative like DeMint, a conservative more libertarian leaning like Sanford, a moderate republican like Graham… very diverse electorate. More: very pragmatic. They like to pick winners.

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

            enough competent at campaigning conservatives run in the first place and too many conservatives split the vote. The good news is that SC is better at choosing than either Iowa of NH.

          • thirstyboots

            Reagan was the prohibitive favorite in 1980 that was surprised in the Iowa caucus by Bush – who run a campaign a la Santorum.

            Bush wasn’t even close to being the establishment candidate.

          • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

            The Reagan win doesn’t fit the narrative unless the narrative is “next in line” and not establishment.

          • tonotisto

            http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/iowa-ethanol-industry-celebrates-romney-santorum/291411

            Perry and Bachmann did not sign on to Ethanol.

            The wallet matters, the Ethanol lobby wants the Pork back.
            Makes me wonder if Perry’s anti-pork stand against Santorum in Iowa actually hurt Perry’s numbers.

        • http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com abierubin

          that I loved this diary so much that I linked to it in my diary today on red state, on my blog, and on c4p.

          Great Job!

          http://www.redstate.com/abierubin/2012/01/04/less-than-a-month-ago-i-was-questioned-why-i-even-bothered-writing-about-santorum/

          http://thethinkingvoter.blogspot.com/2012/01/no-longer-will-i-follow-myth-spread-in.html

          http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/01/no-longer-will-i-believe-the-myth-spread-in-2008-and-which-is-being-repeated-now.html

  • mikeymike143

    that bodes well for him in states like south carolina and florida.

  • mikeymike143

    santorum will do very well in the south

  • snowshooze

    I continue to be hopeful for Perry but I have to defer to your expirence in predictions. Mine aren’t worth much.
    I don’t know much about Mr. Santorum, I have considered him to be a flash in the pan.
    I thought about starting a Santorum thread… and realized immediately that about all I know of him is his name.
    Oh, and that he is a murderer of innocent ducks…
    How is his warchest?
    I caught only a snippet of Rush today, and it wasn’t good.
    I would be led to believe he has a Big Government Big Spending habit. That is not what I consider a conservative attribute.
    Honestly, I can’t see the path.
    Of course… it is a long row to hoe yet.
    Additionally, I wanted to check into your blog and measure the temperature.. I was unable to find it.

  • avagreen

    I don’t let anyone make up my mind for me.

  • mikeymike143

    Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, coming off his photo finish with Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses, is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party

  • mikeymike143

    (CNN) – Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum raised more than $1 million since finishing second in Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses, a source close to the campaign said.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/04/santorum-raises-more-than-1-million-in-one-night/

  • mikeymike143

    it was just supposed to say ”Santorum raises more than $1 million in one night”. so much for trying to work and blog at the same time. LOL