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Decent Gallup bounce for Obama.

Rasmussen's apparently will be tomorrow.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  August 28th, 2008 at 12:47 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

48 – 42 (+6 Obama) on the Gallup Poll; Rasmussen’s currently tied at 47/47, but the explanatory text suggests that tomorrow’s numbers are going to be more Obama-friendly (they float the concept of a possible ‘modest lead,’ which means… I have no idea). While this technically represents Monday through Wednesday, today’s numbers probably are not taking into account the Wednesday lineup of speakers, which means that the full impact of Bill Clinton’s speech will not be reflected in the polls until tomorrow, and the full impact of Barack Obama’s until probably Saturday. The first is further better news for the Democrats; the second will be good or bad, in direct relation to Obama’s speech.

All in all, based on today’s Gallup number, I think that seeing a +10 bounce for Obama by Saturday in either it or Rasmussen is a good minimum criterion for being able to say that Obama had a successful convention. McCain’s people were suggesting +15/+16, of course, but that was just them having fun.

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  • aaronbg

    when Obama is not the focus he gets a bounce….when the focus returns to Obama…his numbers will drop….again…;^)

  • spainishirish

    It would have been nice to know the immediately “before the speech”/”immediately after the speech” differential. I think the McCain campaign thus far has done a highly commendable job of blunting any Obama momentum, and see no sign they will let up.

  • spainishirish

    but so far it has been fairly accurate. The more the public sees of Obama the less it likes him. As a concept, he’s great. As a living empty suit, not so much.

  • aaronbg

    …I meant it as fact…but thanks for reiterating the point….;^)

  • A_Texan

    As an obsessive reader of tracking polls, both this year and in ’04, I found that Rasmussen was the most stable, rarely showing much of a bounce one way or the other. And in ’04, fairly accurate in the end, showing a small Bush lead.

    My guess–Gallup will show Obama at +10 in post-DNC polling, Rasmussen at +5 or so, and the average of polling probably at +7 or +8.

    But with one catch, perhaps McCain’s VP announcement will blunt this bounce.

    And with a decent RNC, McCain will be tied or slightly ahead (+2 or so) ten days from now.

  • bk

    is that on any channel except FNC, anyone watching is seeing a string of liberal guests and hosts praising every speech and action as the greatest thing ever. Tonight they might as well show Matthews having to take a cold shower during Obama’s speech.

    During the GOP convention, are all these networks going to have all liberal guests (we already know about the hosts) blasting every word as soon as it is spoken?

    You can see where the average person watching most networks will get inundated with all the Obot KnownFacts at both conventions.

  • spainishirish

    it’s hard to distinguish.