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Recap of the NY-20 race.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  March 31st, 2009 at 10:12 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

  1. Scott Murphy (D) is ahead by 65 votes.  Nobody’s calling this race just yet.
  2. There are somewhere between six and ten thousand absentee ballots that need to be counted.
  3. They’re not being counted tonight.  They’re not being counted for another week. (Via AoSHQ)  You see, we do, in fact, actually learn from our mistakes.
  4. The deadline for overseas absentee ballots is actually April 13th.
  5. All that being said, just because we haven’t lost yet doesn’t mean that we’ve won, either.  Don’t assume that the absentee ballots are going to flip this race dramatically.
  6. If you still have nervous energy to work off, Rosanna Pulido (the candidate for IL-05) would love your help.

I believe that covers it. So everybody have a bite to eat, or something.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • youthgrunt

    I have to ask the question. In early reporting, people kept saying that this was a Republican district. My questioning mind said, “if this is a Republican district, why was it represented by a Democrat?”

    Can someone give me the real deal on the makeup of this district?

  • scarlos

    WHich means Republicans get 3% more than their national average in that district.

    McCain got I think about 48-49% of the vote, which fits this designation.

    As for the label of “Republican District”, it’s among the most Republican in New York. Which isn’t really saying that much actually.

  • youthgrunt

    Why was it represented by a Democrat? It sounds like a R +3 is really a D. Very confusing.

  • gwynsmom

    More Red in ’09 than it was in ’06:

    http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6177/ny20-dem-performance-map

  • gwynsmom

    https://www.icontribute.us/jimtedisco/initiative/recount

  • gwynsmom

    http://blogsforvictory.com/freegraphics/ny20recount.gif

    and link it to

    https://www.icontribute.us/jimtedisco/initiative/recount

  • scarlos

    It’s for presidential elections, not state or district-wide ones. Individual candidates can differ greatly from the head of their tickets on policy or other factors, which is why there is a democrat representing an R+17 (Utah 2nd), an R+18 (Texas 17th), and an R+19 (Idaho 1st). All three of those people hold substantial differences from BO on certain issues (well, at least they claim to) which is why they keep getting elected.

    Kristen Gillebrand (the previous representative) for example, was rather socially conservative, which helped her in her campaigns.

  • Simplicio

    Gillibrand’s Republican predecessor was something of a mess, and had a police report regarding a domestic violence call from his house released just before the election. So I don’t think you can draw much of a conclusion about the political leanings one way or another by the fact Gillibrand was a Dem.

  • smitch61

    Is there a deadline for oversea ballots only? the local news said (Detroit local) that they have until the 13th to vote absentee. That would be a little unfair right? Is this true does anyone know?

  • gwynsmom

    Regular absentees have to have been postmarked by yesterday and received by Friday. Military ballots have until next Monday. All have to be received by the 13th.

    Ballots have been impounded. No counting until Monday the 6th.

  • Section9

    This is a district that has, at last report, a 70,000 voter Republican margin. You have to be Hitler to lose here.

    But we managed it.

  • paulincolo

    It looks to me like true identification is… well 50/50.

  • AngstFree

    http://www.ichwillzocken.de/Spielen/205/Sport_Games/Mini_Putt_3.html

  • DavidSage

    How Republicans managed to lose (or nearly lose) this race is beyond me. The Democrat candidate was absolutely awful, it was a Republican district, and Tedisco was a strong recruit.

    I’m sure our Party leadership shares in some of the blame, but I’m beginning to think this country has simply shifted to the Left for the time being, and no amount of organizing or fundraising is going to change that. I hate to be so cynical, but I’m not optimistic about this country right now.

    I really think the only way Republicans will ever be a majority party again is if Obama and the Democrat Congress truly does drive this country into the ground. My guess is he will, but I hate to see the damage this country will have to endure before it decides to wake up.

  • IJB

    He may have been endorsed by the Conservative Party, but he sure didn’t act like it. He ran an idiotic populist campaign, and didn’t go after Obama and the Dems nearly enough.

    I don’t know the details about how he and others went after Murphy, but I suspect that was bungled too.

    I figured turnout would overcome the polling, but these days true blue Republicans still don’t have any compelling reason to come out.

    The problem right now is that virtually every Republican politicians out there is terrible.

    None of us are going show up at the polls if all we’re going to get is worthless Orrin Hatch- or Lindsay Graham-types, or Thad McCotters begging for GM handouts, or the House Republicans who voted for a Bill of Attainder on AIG execs salaries and then offered up an unserious alternate budget.

    The national Republicans simply do not get it (still!) and will continue to lose elections, even to Communist/Fascist Dems until they do.

    I’m starting to wonder if redress through the political process is a dead end. A few more candidates like Tedesco, and we may have our answer…

  • scarlos

    I hardly think a Democrat replacing a Democrat in a swing seat constitutes the end of the world. No matter how the Democrats try to spin this, NY-20 is a swing seat in swing territory–it voted for Obama after all.

    The Democrats also pumped the district full of money, and Tedisco slipped up on the Stimulus debate.

    Hell, if anything should signal a “Leftward turn” it’s the fact that the Democrats won a seat in Idaho.

  • Rod_Patrick

    There’s nothing to lose in NY-20.

    Incumbent is D.

    Obama won by 3+!

    I have never commented on few NY-20 diaries here at RS (including a very good one by Caleb) since I find the subject to be another meme by the left, just like the Limbaugh thing.

    Of course, we need to support all Rs running for election bids. But to buy the talking point of the Ds and the MSMs that “NY-20 special election is Test of Obama’s governance” is somewhat phony.

    The Real 1st Test Against Obama shall be the APRIL 15 TEA PARTY. Please note that it’s just the First Test. There will be more to come, believe me.

    What we should realize is this:

    We need to dictate our own winning issues…. instead of just riding on the issues being sold by the Ds.

  • Rod_Patrick
  • randy streu

    There ARE Conservative Republicans in NY. But New York is a state that has been force-fed on the government teat far too long. Even “strong” Republicans start to see need for government intervention in the smallest of issues.

    This is such a leftward state, frankly, that the most Republican guy I know (aside from myself ;) ) is a registered Libertarian.

  • randy streu

    nt

  • Dave_in_Fla

    What I take from NY-20 is that we should have won big here. But that requires that they be a public groundswell of discontent with Washington and Obama. If we want to see the electoral gains of 94 that are going to be needed to slow down this express train to socialism, then the vast middle of electorate (and I DON’T mean moderates!) that doesn’t pay attention to elections needs to be energized to go vote.

    Special elections are almost always governed by party faithful, so NY-20 looks to have an equal number of staunch Dems and GOP. The real problem is that the types that don’t pay attention are not connecting in their minds that economic pain is being brought on by the fiscal irresponsibility in DC. Or they think that the actions in DC are going to actually help, and are willing to give up liberty for a safety net.

    Jonah Goldberg said something pretty profound a few months ago, “The voters need to learn that government can’t love them”. The voters in NY-20 that didn’t bother to turn out haven’t yet learned that lesson.

  • WarEagle01

    So I think people need to simmer. Remember, most of those absentee ballots are coming from the military who tend to be about 70% Republican. This race is not lost yet.

  • dld1717

    The district voted for Obama and Gillibrand is still popular here ( won 60% last time)

    However, we need to learn that when wen nominate people exterior image comes off on many voters; we learned it with Obama and now Murphy.

    I am Italian so I can say this Tedisco came off very Soprano’s while Murphy came off as the sweet, charming, young looking guy with nice family. Imagery is important!

  • mbecker908

    but don’t forget that the ballots still sitting in the back of the D poll watchers cars haven’t been found yet let alone counted…

  • Kyle-MI

    It is hard for Reps to have a good image when the MSM is the propaganda arm of the Democratic party. It is probably ten times worse in NY.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    The GOP had everything put on lockdown before the polls even closed. Everything has been impounded; the ballots will be reviewed in central locations; and there will be no opening of the absentee ballots without full supervision and district-wide, consistent rules in place.

    Because we can be taught.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Took us 9 years to learn the lesson, but I expect that such injunctions will be standard practice in the future.

    Now if we could find a way to stop voter registration fraud.

  • Rod_Patrick

    I also share your frustrations. But it’s only less than 3 months. Somehow, the people who voted for Dear Leader Obama are still hoping and dreaming. We can’t do anything about it.

    For the mean time, let us be patient and wait. I really feel that something good will come out in the end.

    When the Dems fall, they will never recover anymore. America will forever cling to its conservative principles.

  • SecularRepublican

    This is a tradtionally red district where we hold a large registration edge. We also outspent the Dems and ran a candidate with great name recognition. For the results to be this close, against a no-name pol, is mighty disappointing. Even if we end up eeking out a victory, this isn’t the decisive vote against the Obama economic plan that I was hoping to see.

  • mbecker908

    Gee, maybe there IS hope…

  • The_Rebel

    critical mass yet in terms of the anger over Obama’s power grab, the spread of socialism, the failure of his nominees to properly pay their taxes, or his nonexistent foreign policy, to mention a few items. Either the American people are too stupid and not paying attention, or they are still too lazy to get up off their duffs and vote. Apparently they need more impetus to get out there. Maybe if millions more lose their jobs, or their 401k’s lose another 50%, or their utility bills double from a carbon tax, or they have to wait weeks or months for surgery under universal health care, they might just start paying attention. By then it will be too late.

  • VanishingNYRep

    With all due respect to Moe Lane and the rest of the RedStaters, this is standard operating procedure in NYS.

    NYS is home to 50% of all the election litigation in the USA because ot its arcane and confusing election laws. The result of all of this litigation is that, in every close election in NYS, the machines are impounded for a hand recount. The voting machines are glorified adding machines. In the recount, representatives of both candidates and parties appear at the place where the machines are impounded and stand behind the Bd of Election counters to verify the count. Sometimes in close elections, the machines were read incorrectly on election night and when recounted and checked, the totals sometimes change. Also as a result of the Election Law and litigation, there are standard rules for the verification of Absentee Ballots, how they are opened and how they are counted. So, in NY, this is standard procedure done by experts on both sides. There is no room for shenanigans. Any dispute over an Absentee Ballot is decided a ballot by ballot basis before they are opened.

    If you want to determine who will win, find out where the people who cast Absentee Ballots lived, whether in Columbia County or another, determine the number of ballots in each county and then use the ratio for the winning candidate to determine how many more votes will be gained. For example, if Mr. Tedesco won Schenectady by 54% and there are 1000 absentee ballots, you can safely assume that Mr. Tedesco will get 540 to Mr. Murphy’s 460 for a surplus of 80 votes. Check it out. You’ll see it works.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …that the GOP had jumped in even before the polls closed, so I assumed that this was unusual, just like all the other carpetbaggers reporting on this. :)

  • dld1717

    Columbia County gave extra votes to Murphy (HMMM?) and now Murphy leads by 25 votes