Rasmussen and the quietly rusting Democratic advantage.


Examining Rasmussen’s trust-on-issues numbers from month to month is interesting enough, but I was interested in the long term trends. So I put together this chart comparing this month’s numbers with those of last October’s*:

October 2008 May 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Cum Shift
Economy 51% 38% 13 44% 43% 1 (12)
Govt Ethics 40% 30% 10 40% 29% 11 1
National Sec. 47% 44% 3 41% 48% (7) (10)
Education 53% 34% 19 49% 36% 13 (6)
Healthcare 54% 34% 20 53% 35% 18 (2)
Taxes 47% 42% 5 41% 47% (6) (11)
Iraq 47% 42% 5 41% 43% (2) (7)
Social Security 49% 37% 12 48% 39% 9 (3)
Abortion 47% 38% 9 41% 41% - (9)
Immigration 40% 38% 2 36% 37% (1) (3)


As you can see, back in October it was fairly clear that Democrats were enjoying consistent leads over Republicans when it came to how much the public trusted them on various issues. It’s also fairly clear that in most cases, those leads have been savaged. Leading in four categories and tied in one may not sound wonderful; but compared to zero-for-ten that’s not half bad - particularly since it’s looking as if the Democrats are in the process of thoroughly squandering their existing trustworthiness with regard to the economy. The only real disappointment is the government trust numbers (which were much better last month**), but that’s the next project.

What does it mean? Not much, except of course as a helpful reminder that the people who are currently eager to tell you that we’re doomed as a party are not necessarily working from completely accurate data. Hardly surprising: most of those people don’t have your best interests at heart. Or any of your interests at heart, really.

Moe Lane

*It’s really the one that we’re all interested in, given that it’s more or less at the zenith of the Democrats’ popularity.

**This month’s and last month’s numbers in general were pretty volatile.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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36 Comments Leave a comment

Oh, I'm certain that Glibbless will explain away any significance of these polls...NT

USNJIMRET Monday, May 11th at 7:40PM EDT (link)

Is Energy a poll category, or part of Economy?

redneck_hippie Monday, May 11th at 7:44PM EDT (link)

After all, energy is one of O’s 3 top priorities.

“We must not lose our faculty to dare, especially in dark days.” - Churchill in March, 1942.

Remember NY-23.

 

Nice post

McKinley Monday, May 11th at 7:59PM EDT (link)

This suggests how awful the McCain campaign/Bush Administration had become at pushing the R agenda.

I've heard this criticism enough times

cmack Monday, May 11th at 11:28PM EDT (link)

that I have to speak up.

FWIW, John McCain is *the* reason I am now a flag-waving, patriotic, dyed-in-the-wool Republican. A year ago I didn’t care much about our country’s government, and it was John McCain that woke me up. While I am sure the long-time Conservatives have legitimate beef with McCain and his campaign, I think it’s important to realize that he did have a positive impact, because I *know* I am not alone. Nothing is new under the sun and if I feel this way, I know there are many others who can relate.

IMO, John McCain did not lose because of something he did or did not do, he lost because American voters are almost uniformly un-informed. Period.

The biggest argument against democracy

SoulEspresso Tuesday, May 12th at 12:33AM EDT (link)

… is a five minute conversation with the average voter. Hence the GOP’s need to educate the public.

McCain was the first candidate I was ever really excited about. And when he chose his running mate, well, the man insured the future of the GOP.

Since then I’ve become MUCH better informed about several issues in which I disagree with the Senator from Arizona. But the more I watch our president, the gladder I can say, “Don’t blame me, I voted for ….”

 

IMO, McCain lost because he utterly failed to explain the Dems cupability in the credit crunch

6eorge Jetson Tuesday, May 12th at 12:47AM EDT (link)

In mid Sept, McCain was even with Obama in the betting exchanges to win the Presidency. He even had a miniscule lead for a couple of days.

But then Lehman went bankrupt on Sept 15, and the economy became the whole ball of wax. Obama could talk of “those failed policies of the past eight years”, and with a campaign manager that had dined well at the FannieMae pig trough, all McCain dared to muster was a few weak attempts to explain the enabling role of the GSEs.

The Vice President is always minor factor. Playing the “I’m not Bush” card while failing to play the GSE card was a guaranteed losing hand, no matter the choice of running mate.

You can't be possibly right about that

bk Tuesday, May 12th at 7:54AM EDT (link)

I thought McCain lost because conservatives are a bunch of small tent, closed-minded bigots who are just way too far to the right and non-inclusive to appeal to normal people. At least that’s what traditional Republicans all over the place are saying - Colin Powell, Arlen Specter, Meghan McCain, etc. These are people who are strong backers of the GOP and are giving us advice on how to become the majority party again.

PS What’s that sarcasm emoticon again?

 
 
 
 

Re Gov't Ethics

itsonlywords Monday, May 11th at 8:12PM EDT (link)

I don’t understand that. Do you think that’s related to the “party of no” meme?

Tu ne cede malis sed contra audientor ito. ~Virgil
Do not give in to evil, but proceed evermore boldly against it.

politicians + media = 29%

JakePrime Monday, May 11th at 8:31PM EDT (link)

It’s good to see some positive movement in general, but we really have to figure out a way to turn that particular number around without just waiting for the Dems to mess up more. Politicians will be politicians, but 29% is not a good number. With the media being the way it is, it’s that much harder for us. Anything less than zero tolerance for corruption doesn’t cut it.

 

Yeah, I don't really get that one either, paulag.

janis Monday, May 11th at 8:51PM EDT (link)

But I assume that it’s the MSM at work as usual. Anyone of us here could read you chapter and verse about Dodd and Murtha, just to name two. God knows the two of them are the poster children for corruption, and yet Ted Stevens got a lot more press about his supposed charges of “corruption” than these two have. The fact that the charges against him were dropped and the prosecutors got in lots of hot water was certainly kept on the down low.

The only other thing I can think to attribute it to is the constant harping from Obama that all things that are wrong at this point belong to Bush, particularly the economic troubles. That’s not going to work much longer.

Heck...

itsonlywords Monday, May 11th at 9:18PM EDT (link)

I know plenty of Republicans who still think Stevens is the devil.

Tu ne cede malis sed contra audientor ito. ~Virgil
Do not give in to evil, but proceed evermore boldly against it.

 
 
 

I Tend To Have The Opposite Conclusion...

IJB Monday, May 11th at 8:49PM EDT (link)

…If we’re only at:

+7 on Nat. Sec.
+2 on Iraq (it’s unfortunate Afghanistan isn’t polled separately); and
+6 on Taxes

…then we have quite a ways to go.

(The best number in that poll is that the GOP has now completely neutralized the D “advantage” on the economy…)

I’ll regard the “comeback” as complete when the GOP is at least +10 (and more like +15 or more) on Nat.Sec. & Taxes (and the Economy).
(It’s not enough to be even/ahead in the generic ballot - the GOP *must* be significantly ahead on the “Who Would Do a Better Job…?” on Nat.Sec., Taxes and the Economy by the summer 2010 to even have a shot…)

I do figure we’ll be there by the end of this year (best case scenario: by the end of this summer), unless of course the GOP Congressional leadership completely blows it before them (odds on that: fair).

But, until we are, I’m not going to be breaking out any ‘bubbly’…

 

The trend is obviously bad news for the dems...

rbdwiggins Monday, May 11th at 8:57PM EDT (link)

That’s why everything is a crisis and there’s such a rush to enact Obama’s progressive agenda.

The trend also identifies the issues where we should concentrate a little more of our attention.

Education and Health Care continue to show signs of weakness on our part, but Obama has provided us with an opening with which to control the health care debate.

We simply can’t afford for the federal government to assume control over 17% of GDP. Health Care Reform is nothing but political rhetoric, $2 Trillion in “savings” is a pipe-dream and reform is destined to fail from the start, unless the core issues surrounding Medicare Entitlements, medical liability and the protection of intellectual property are addressed and resolved.

With a great deal of incompetence and unintended help from the Obama Administration, the Economy and Ethics in Government are in the process of resolving themselves.

That leaves Energy Independence. Once the investment banks begin buying oil again (It appears they may have already started.), we will own this issue, and we can use it at will as a club to beat the progressives about their collective heads.

“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan

 

Kudos to Moe and the RS team

Deskpilot Monday, May 11th at 9:58PM EDT (link)

A great presentation of the “statistical” state of the game.
As with you and all of the other great primary posters here @ RedState, I further my understanding of the whole, wide dangerous agenda being brought forth and the ganwing success WE THE PEOPLE are having at winning in the arena of ideas. Properly armed with clear, concise and commanding information, WE ARE overcoming the flaming rhetoric constantly spilling forth from the left and the further left administration.
Armed with all of the supremly high quality argumentative information presented here, even I have begun to get teh Obamnauts in my family to start reconsidering their actions pre-Nov4.
They look at their extra $18/per paycheck and realize the foolery of it all.
I’ve got one person to listen to Sarah Convention speach along with my annotated copy of the text, Annotated with all of the promises that BHO had made, and the programs that now underscore them.

Thanks for the on-going education.

If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you can still read it in English, You’re Welcome
Deskpilot, AM(H)1 (AW), USN (Ret)

 

An Amazing Shift

DavidSage Monday, May 11th at 10:03PM EDT (link)

That’s a dramatic swing in just a few months. My guess is these numbers will only continue to move in the Republican direction.

Many voters still blame the current environment on the previous administration. As time passes, Obama and the Democrats will fully own all this country’s problems. This economy is only going to continue to deteriorate. If energy prices start rising, the Democrats are really going to be in a world of hurt.

I do think Republicans need to use this opportunity wisely. We can’t just sit back and think the American people are going to be beating down our door, we need a clear agenda to contrast with the Democrats and Obama. Right now, we have terrible leadership that is incredibly ineffective. These numbers moving in our direction are purely the result of the other side making so many mistakes.

Regardless, it is encouraging to hear that Americans haven’t relegated the Republican Party to permanent minority status after all.

 

I don't see much "cause for celebration" here.

mbecker908 Monday, May 11th at 10:10PM EDT (link)

I see some movement, mostly on stuff that doesn’t matter or nothing can be done about. On stuff that is about to be, or should be, legislated we’re in the crapper.

Education, the economy, healthcare and social security “the folks” trust the Dems. I find that really depressing. And, a 7% difference on national security? Six points on taxes? We should have pushed them to impeach Bush. In 2004 before the election.

CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

 

The Dem's now have no excuses and it shows

texas214 Monday, May 11th at 10:27PM EDT (link)

in these polls. Can’t blame the GOP, although they still try

 

Dems 40% on Government Ethics, what the heck are we doing wrong?

DONTREADONME Monday, May 11th at 10:48PM EDT (link)

The democrats have proven to be the most unethical politicians of the last 70 years, and yet the Republicans are the culture of corruption. SOMEONE IS NOT DOING SOMETHING WRITE IN THE GOP! GET YOUR 5HI7 TOGETHER, MR GOP CHAIRMAN.

“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth

Exactly, I can't believe that the Dems have <i>increased</i> their differential lead

6eorge Jetson Monday, May 11th at 11:25PM EDT (link)

albeit only by one percentage, in Govt Ethics

This is apparently the default.

Moe Lane Monday, May 11th at 11:45PM EDT (link)
 
 

No celebration until Blue Dog Democrats stop being lap dogs

civil_truth Monday, May 11th at 11:00PM EDT (link)

…and start standing up to Harry and Nancy and putting their votes where their mouths were when they campaigned.

Until then, we’re grasping at straws, Or even worse, tempted to sit back and hope for the Democrats to self-destruct. Not a good strategy.

they don't and won't

JLenardDetroit Monday, May 11th at 11:53PM EDT (link)

which is why we must be sure people get enough examples to understand that the Blue-Dog thing is indeed just a Myth! You put it well, Blue-Dog = nothing more than Liberal-Lap-Dog. CCINOs (Conservative Campaigners In Name Only) who quickly sell-out their vote to the Progressive leadership to insure they get campaign help the next Election. Often they’re just PLINOs too. All those terms and real definitions (here).

(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (Reco) (Quotes) (removeRINOs.com) (Merry RSmas)
+ 0bama Lies & your Bank acct will Die! (4/15 Truthers)
+ Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
+ I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” - a Rush caller (other Quotes)

My point was that they definitely won't until the kitchen gets to hot

civil_truth Tuesday, May 12th at 1:57AM EDT (link)

So long as it looks like the Democratic Party is running the table while the Republican party is getting plastered at the bar, the Blue Dogs are going to assume they have a free pass to kowtow to the Democratic party leadership because they won’t face meaningful opposition at the next election.

It the Republicans are able to rally and it starts to look like some Blue Dogs may be facing a hostile electorate and a credible Republican challenge, then the Blue Dogs may feel forced to shift to the right a bit to triangulate, to start to give them so cover to back up their rhetoric.

That’s why I said that the Republican party will have evidence that we’re getting some traction again if the Blue Dogs start to feel a necessity to act more conservative and start opposing the leadership in their votes - assuming the Republican party hasn’t thrown in the towel and decided to become “Democrat-Lite” - in which case we may end up with 30 senators and 150 in the House come Jan 2011.

Lots of mixed metaphors here - it’s getting late.

 
 
 

Moe...these are great numbers from Rasmussen...

conservativemusician Monday, May 11th at 11:47PM EDT (link)

But I still think the most important poll is Obama’s approval number, which seems to be trending up lately on Rasmussen. Like Rush said today, his voters may never really hold this guy accountable for anything because he is such a “likeable” guy (I really don’t get this). Also, he’ll blame Bush for everything that goes wrong and use this as an excuse for a mandate to keep on spending money we don’t have.

My hope at this point is that these encouraging poll numbers on the various issues will translate to the GOP either taking back one or both houses or at least getting the voting margins closer where it will be mujch harder for Obama to get things done so quickly. This would be especially helpful in the Senate. Perhaps we can chip away in the next 2 to 3 election cycles to make this happen.

We can't afford to wait

Karina Tuesday, May 12th at 4:09AM EDT (link)

4 or 6 years to “chip away” their lead. Look at the damage they’ve caused our country in just a few months! Take a look at the pending legislation. We’ve got to start shooting at them with both barrels exposing their hypocracy and showing people exactly what Conservatives are made of.

Sites like rs are important but the information is not reaching average voters. Americans are typically lazy. They don’t want to have to work too hard for their information. It’s easier to watch GMA or the Today Show to get their news. More people have switched to Foxnews but it’s still not enough. They’re being fed misinformation and being led by the nose to socialism.

I have to say I’m very disappointed in Michael Steele. He’s allowing himself to be the laughingstock of the GOP rather than standing up to the opposition and refuting them. He’s acting like GWB and playing nice and it’s infuriating! It’s time to play the game their way and get a little dirty.

Stop confusing me with the facts, I’m making up my own imagination. ~My grandmother who voted for Obama

Of course, Karina, it would be better to take back both houses immediately if possible...

conservativemusician Tuesday, May 12th at 10:10AM EDT (link)

But I’m looking at this pragmatically. Tidal waves like the 1994 GOP landslide are great, but it’s going to take a similar seismic shift in public opinion to pull this off (hence my point about Obama’s approval rating being a major concern). It could happen, but I’m not banking on it, so I still hold to my original point that if we can’t do this all at once (which would be my preference), then we have to at least try to weaken them as much as possible by lessening their voting majorities.

Regarding your point about the intellectual laziness of Americans, I don’t fully agree with you. Remember that a lot of Dems also went to the tea parties as well and a lot of them are regretting their votes for Obama. People are waking up, albeit too slowly for most of us who post here, but it is happening. Fox News is absolutely killing everyone else in the ratings, so this is a great sign.

On Michael Steele, like many others here, I have serious doubts about him, but it is unlikely he will resign in the near future (and probably not at all). This will work itself out over time, but he can’t expect to get the support of the base if he keeps staying stupid things. If he’s as much like GWB as you say, then he should be promoting the things GWB did right, like keeping our country safe, promoting tax cuts, and promoting SCOTUS justices who actually believe the constitution. I hope he will start getting the message sonner rather than later.

I see your point

Karina Tuesday, May 12th at 10:49AM EDT (link)

Remember that Clinton had high numbers too. I don’t think a seismic shift is impossible. We’re seeing the rumblings already.

Yes, there were Dems at the tea parties. It’s the people who do not watch the abc, nbc,cbs or the Tonight Show and SNL that I was talking about. I saw a video taken the day of the election asking people why they voted for Obama. It also asked what his position was on different issues, who Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid was, things about Gov. Palin ect. Just about the only things these morons got right was the stuff on Palin and even that wasn’t quite right. THOSE are the people I was talking about. The hatred on their faces for anything Republican was disturbing. But their willful blindness was worse. I wonder what they think of Obama and the dems now. I’d like to see a second taping done of the same people now.

Unfortunately, everything Bush did is an anathema right now. I’m not sure Steele can do much there.

Stop confusing me with the facts, I’m making up my own imagination. ~My grandmother who voted for Obama

 
 
 
 

and those numbers also show that WE do not NEED....

JadedByPolitics Tuesday, May 12th at 5:36AM EDT (link)

to go left the numbers are trending OUR way without one little moderate doing anything….our caucus is Conservative (most of the time) and the numbers MOVED! This is this year wait until next when they SHIFT MORE and give us the 2010 election!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

 

Lets Get Real

aposematic Tuesday, May 12th at 7:43AM EDT (link)

The only people saying the GOP is dead are Democrats and their pundits or RINOs that wish it so.

Does anyone believe the Dems and their pundits really care and want to help the GOP regain power? Lets get real!

aposematic in VA

How hateful to call Meghan McCain a liar.

bk Tuesday, May 12th at 7:57AM EDT (link)

And Colin Powell.

And Arlen Specter.

These people are just trying to help, right?

Oh, come on, I think it's cute that her first foray into punditry is a series of ...

randy streu Tuesday, May 12th at 8:00AM EDT (link)

“My Daddy lost because Republicans suck” blogs. It’s kinda sweet, in an annoying, eyes-rolling-until-they-cause-a-seziure kind of way.

 
 
 

A different electorate

citadelsdaughter Tuesday, May 12th at 10:26AM EDT (link)

October 2008 was the high water mark of political activism just prior to a deeply anticipated presidential election. 6 months later, polls reflect a turn back to a more typical equilibrium between opposing camps. This post underscores the oddity of the party of government pulling superior numbers after the presidential honeymoon and during a period of historic unemployment and asset devaluation.

 

Hey...given these numbers...I've got a great idea...let's moderate our views so we look more like Democrats...

AceInTX Tuesday, May 12th at 11:04AM EDT (link)

I’s obvious these numbers are going down for Democrats because of what they are trying to do…its just that they’re not dong it as good as Republicans would!

{/sark}

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
Senate Conservatives Fund
House Conservatives Fund
Michael Williams for Senate
Marco 2010
Toomey US Senate

SarahPAC

Powell in 2012!!!

randy streu Tuesday, May 12th at 11:06AM EDT (link)

Aren't going down I mean

AceInTX Tuesday, May 12th at 11:06AM EDT (link)

I’s obvious these numbers aren’t going down for Democrats because of what they are trying to do…its just that they’re not dong it as good as Republicans would!

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
Senate Conservatives Fund
House Conservatives Fund
Michael Williams for Senate
Marco 2010
Toomey US Senate

SarahPAC
 
 

Ethics

Dencal26 Tuesday, May 12th at 11:24AM EDT (link)

The ethics issue concerns me. After Obama paraded Tax Cheat After Tax Cheat in front of America as nominees? Dems still command a lead in that area and have not dropped any,

 

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