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June’s Rasmussen trust numbers versus May’s.

More of the same.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  June 9th, 2009 at 02:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

So, last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than Democrats on four critical topics, and trusted more and/or tied on five.  It got a surprising amount of play, given that I hadn’t really thought all that much about it when I wrote it.  Besides, it was one month, compared to a very, very, very bad month for Republicans; the numbers could very easily shift by the next month.

They did.

Jun-09 May-09
Issue Democrats GOP Diff Democrats GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 47% 37% 10 53% 35% 18 8
Education 44% 37% 7 49% 36% 13 6
Social Security 43% 37% 6 48% 39% 9 3
Abortion 41% 41% - 41% 41% - -
Economy 39% 45% (6) 44% 43% 1 7
Taxes 39% 44% (5) 41% 47% (6) (1)
Iraq 37% 45% (8) 41% 43% (2) 6
Nat’l Security 36% 51% (15) 41% 48% (7) 8
Gov’t Ethics 29% 35% (6) 40% 29% 11 17
Immigration 29% 43% (14) 36% 37% (1) 13

Numbers in red represent a shift in the GOP’s favor; numbers in blue, the Democrats.  As is immediately obvious, the Republican Party is now trusted more on six out of ten (tied in one more), including the most critical one of the economy.  Also note that the GOP has had a net shift in its favor in eight of the ten categories.  In no category did the Democrats improve on their trust levels in May, and in nine of ten, they dropped; the GOP increased their trust ratings in seven of ten.  Most gratifyingly, the Government Ethics category (which is the most volatile, from what I’ve seen so far) is currently pegged at something approaching objective reality.

How significant all of that is I will leave to the statisticians and other modern-day diviners; but I think that it can be safely said that the Democratic Party isn’t having a good second quarter.

Moe Lane

PS: There’s sixteen months until the 2010 elections.  These numbers will shift back and forth several times between now and then. All of this is merely a reminder to avoid despair.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • Aaron Gardner

    but it is nice to see that there is fertile soil out there…hopefully the GOP notices and decides to plant a few more seeds.

  • IJB

    These numbers may not be exactly reproducible in Oct. of 2010.

    But both the trends and the overall picture are important, and set to establish the idea that, 1) all is not lost for the Opposition, and 2) the GOP is settling into good shape for 2010.

    The one(two) real troublesome spots for the GOP are their numbers on Taxes(Economy) – the GOP needs to be way ahead of the Dems on both, and definitely above 50% on both. Both of these numbers, but *especially* the Tax numbers, need to improve further.

    Once that happens, the odds of taking back the House improve substantially…

    (I’d also like to see the NatSec numbers look more like 55-32 in the GOP’s favor, but they’re actually pretty good where they are right now…)

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    and given the deepening of the great recession, I doubt we, the GOP, could fail to win massive seats in 2010 unless we tried to lose!

    History is on our side even if there were no great recession, in the first off year election for the out party.

    I said all along, since November, that the dems would own the recession in 2010, and that was before Obama actually did worse than I imagined!

    This poll to me is just the signs of the inevitable.

    remember, that even Reagan lost massive seats in 1982 due to the recession that he inherited that got him elected!

    Obama and the dems will suffer.

  • Aaron Gardner

    My point was that these numbers could shift before 2010 if the Republicans don’t seize on the fertile soil (represented by these poll numbers).

    If the GOP continues to pull it’s punches these numbers won’t continue the current trend, they need to turn up the heat. Tend to the crops, to keep with the farming analogy, keep pushing.

    I basically agree with everything you say in your post above, I was just saying that these numbers today do not relate directly to what the result will be in 2010.

    A positive sign? Yes, but will those driving the car see the sign or just whiz right past it?

  • http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

    Was it actions/speeches by various dems that pushed the numbers in our favor? Or was it certain actions/speeches by republicans (and if so, which ones)? Or is it just general malaise with the party in charge at the time?

  • Aaron Gardner

    We should be actively planting our own seeds as well.

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    muggings by dem policies with the GOP rather late to the game with their own seeds.

    I have found that relying on Republicans is rather useless.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • JadedByPolitics
  • Return to Revolution

    Health care, economy, and taxes. The GOP is now more trusted on the latter 2 but Democrats are still more trusted on health care. I can think of 3 things this can mean:

    1. Democrats can be liberal and “fix” health care without raising taxes or spending anything by relying primarily on Obama’s charming personality

    2. People mostly believe Democrats are actually free market capitalists at heart and will reform healthcare using said principles.

    3. A whole lot of people have a fierce case cognitive dissonance.

    Unfortunately, I’m afraid its #3.

  • Aetius728

    Most people don’t understand the difference between health insurance and actual health care.

    Selling universal healthcare by distorting the true costs and implying that it will result in better access to healthcare is easy when people have no concept of the fact that the things that government will impose to “keep costs under control” such as price caps and rationing will actually create incentives for reduced research and hospitals to stop investing in expensive equipment, such as MRIs.

    And it is not that people are incapable of understanding these things. The media is being totally unprofessional in their failure to report these concerns, which have occurred everywhere it has been tried(big suprise huh?), the state of economic education in our public schools is pathetic, and the truth is that most people’s lives are to busy to sit around and contemplate these things.

    Pointing out these problems is the responsibility of elected Republicans and us.

  • Mike gamecock DeVine

    diatribes against Cornyn’s that slander Rush and fund Crists so as to provide an example to others on how the GOP must not blow this.

    They seem intent on blowing it with their misplaced fear of Obama and the MSM, so as we “wish” for the GOP to do right, let’s not fear going after the Powell faction of the GOP even if the powers that be here may sometimes too closely equate the GOP and the conservative direction we need.

    And I know you are with me on that.

    devine is

    wishing and hoping and praying and….

    60s song lyric

  • DavidSage

    Obama’s chickens haven’t come home to roost yet. He’s still in the honeymoon part of his Presidency, and many people foolishly believe we’ve turned a corner and the worst is behind us..

    I believe this economy is going to get really, really bad, and I don’t think the Democrats are going to be able to get any traction on blaming Bush in the 2010 election. Obama and the Democrats will be held responsible in full for the economy, good or bad. What’s unfortunate for our side is that there aren’t that many Senate seats up for grabs this election cycle.

    Republicans have to understand though that we can’t just sit back and expect voters to beat down our door because the Democrats policies are so awful. We need to have alternatives that resonate with the American public, and we need to recruit quality candidates to run for higher office.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    agreed… we can/should be Optimistic, but not over-confident… alot of work to do and long way to go….

    Just how bad the BLUE-ism infestation is in many places, the degree of stupidity (above and beyond that) that remains in the Style Over Substance clowns that factored into the ObamaBinBiden win remains with how long they?ll keep their heads up their hindsides following all their 2006/08 votes in ANY given area of the country, ACORN looking to ?assist? ever more/new territories reach the ?proper? outcomes (in the ACORN mindset), the Baracklash (wish I could remember the RSer that gave me that to acknowledge), etc? means we can be Optimistic but still gives me some ?concern.? FOX was reporting ?Deed? as the probable Democrat Gov. nominee as they try to ?Conservative? their nominee knowing what/how the battle will be shaped in that State. That on the one hand is great, as they admit the ?needs,? but is still some concern (as going back to the afore mentioned ?concerns?) as we?ve seen the Democrat CINOs/PLINOs have duped far too many (asleep at the switch and easily fooled) folks into pulling that JackAss lever lately.

    Are people really waking up that ?Conservatisism? in actual/real direction for any part or the whole of the country is only going to come through the Republican Party, again plenty of CINOs/PLINOs out of Democrats that then just give control over to the Liberal left. Of course, too many Republicans went lax on the right direction themselves, but none-the-less it is the ONLY place it is going to actually return while the Dem?s play with Conservative ?sounding? candidates and values/principles to compete for (read: Dupe or Steal) the votes while never intending to “CHANGE” from their normal Tax/Spend/Socialist Incremental-ism agenda they have always taken the country down with. There are things to be ?Optimistic? about but there is still alot of work to be done in waking up the masses to ?acknowledge? they made mistakes with Democrats/Obama and reverse their bad habits of late.

  • scarlos

    with the “Barracklash”

    But in regards to your point here, i don’t think the public has come to that sort of realization yet, and I don’t think it’s going to be a spontaneous epiphany. Very few people are going to wake up in the middle of the night saying to themselves “I should probably start voting Republican now”

    Rather it’s going to be a painfully slow process. These voters probably bit their lip and accepted the “Stimulus”; bit their lip and accepted the multi-trillion dollar deficit, and so on for all of Obama’s policies. The justify this to themselves as being necessary, or an exception, or something like that.

    Our job is to pull the shades off their eyes. We need to prove to these people that no matter how long they wait or how hard they beg, the Democrats will never listen to what they have to say, and will never do more than throw them an occasional bone.

    If we can do that, we’ll be set for 2010 and 2012 and plenty of elections after those.

  • http://www.ssce.net/Web-Articles/Web-articles-indexed-authors.html#authors-l JLenardDetroit

    some are expecting that (Baracklash) to be instant and overnight… I’m with you, I do NOT think it will be – at least for most people. They have done that “Liberal” thing and went out and pulled that JackAss lever and then get to go back to sleep convinced (self delussion) about how they care and that they elected people who care and all that other Style Over Substance born out of the NEA Esteem Over Substance BS…. We have to beat on them to awaken them from their very deep slumber. Beyond that, we have to “HOPE” that some of the additional fools that feel to the hysterical… er… historical …. BS do go back to sleep and just don’t bother to wake up to vote again in any form (plenty of those fools).

  • JX12

    Elected Republicans may or may not elect to stick their necks out to be heard. I guess we’ll see.

    Americans love a leader, and they tend to elect leaders. Obama was widely perceived to be a leader in 2008 – at least more of a leader than McCain, at any rate ( hey, I didn’t say Americans always elect leaders who will take us in the right direction). Anyway, the same was true of Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America in 1994. Then, of course, there was Reagan in 1980. Yet even Reagan was trailing Carter for most of the 1980 election season (assuming one believes the polls of the day), despite the sheer misery foisted upon us during Carter’s term.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is, don’t just assume that the GOP is going to make big gains in 2010, even if things get far worse between now and then – UNLESS they run people who inspire voters to switch. It’s particularly important for the GOP to do this because the deck is already stacked against them with a sycophantic media – who are now going so far as to call Obama a sort of god (that’s just sick, by the way) – chomping at the bit to take them out. And let’s not even go down the whole ACORN voter fraud road – yet another card in the stacked deck.

    Suffice it to say that there’s going to have to be some SERIOUS inspiration emanating from the GOP to get enough voters to come over to their side in order to overcome the stacked deck. They can’t just assume that the lousy state of affairs in the country, by itself, will drive enough people into their camp accomplish that feat.

    Having said that, conservatism MUST win in 2010 (notice I didn’t say “Republicanism”). We certainly can’t afford for Obama to continue unchecked for the entirety of his term. If, however, the Republican Party leadership, and elected Republicans in particular, continue down this road of playing Democrat-lite, then they’re just going to have to be primaried out.

  • jeffreywturner

    This is how much the numbers shift merely as a result of how much the Dems suck.

    Just think how good they could look if the GOP actually grew some balls and offered some bold alternatives?

  • jeffreywturner

    People in America simply don’t realize how fortunate they are when it comes to healthcare.

    They have no clue how horrible socialized medicine is, or they would be thanking their lucky stars that we DON’T have it here.

  • molybdanthan

    We’ll know what we had when we don’t have it any more.

  • avgamerican

    However, Republicans need to go on the offensive. Number one they need to center in on O’s foreign policy and make it clear to the world and the voters that we don’t back O on terrorism and Israel. They need to slug O in the face with his comments on his tentative approval of Iran’s nuclear program. Number 2 thy need to hit O on this Chrysler bankruptcy thing and demonstarte to the public employees how their president just gave away 71% of their pension investment. Do dem voters really believe that they will not suffer by O’s policies? If I were a wealthy investor, I would pull my money as fast as possible and stick in an offshore account and buy gold. I certainly wouldn’t buy a government bond. Especially when a court can tell public or private entities that they don’t have to pay it back.

  • avgamerican

    Most Americans oppose abortion, but that won’t prevent them from voting for an Obama. Most Americans believe we are in a war on terror, but won’t acknowledge that what O is doing on foreign policy is endangering us.

  • wrenhal

    I just wrote this comment the other day in my journal:
    “How many people are going to be wearing their patriotism on their
    sleeves on the 4th of July while Obama tries to flush this country down the toilet thanks to their votes back in November?”

    It makes me sick how they can say they are patriotic but not care enough to vote for someone who is the farthest thing from a patriot.

  • redrockmd

    that the numbers are going to “shift” back and forth. I see no evidence whatsoever that the Dems are winning on ANY issue. It’s a rapid descent from “superstar” to Mr. “can’t get anything right” for Mr. Obama. His Presidency is on a downhill “death spiral” and there’s no possible upside in the cards. Let’s face it, this is already a failed Presidency.