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Five House races to look at.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  July 11th, 2009 at 08:06 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There’s no unifying theme to these choices: they’re merely five candidates for the House of Representatives that the GOP has recruited, supported, or at least working with. There are more – there are, in fact, a good deal more – but these will do for a start. And so, in no particular order:

  • Cory Gardner (CO-04). State legislator.  One of three candidates  for this R+6 seat.  The seat is currently held by Betsy Markey, who not only voted for Cap and Trade; she pretended that she had read it. Gardner is a Tea Party participant, and doing very well in fundraising. Donate here.
  • Charles Djou (HI-01).  City Councilman, Army Reservist.  Candidate for this D+11 seat.  Neil Abercrombie is not seeking re-election, as he is planning to run for Governor of Hawaii: the lack of an incumbent and the general reaction to Djou has this race on a lot of dark horse lists.  Everything needs to work out just right, which is pretty much what we said about Cao down in Louisiana.  Besides, you make ‘em fight everywhere.  Donate here.
  • Martha Roby (AL-02).  City Councilwoman with a track record of winning minority votes. Candidate for this R+16 seat.  Bobby Bright is a freshman hanging onto his fingernails, as witnessed by the fact that he was given permission to vote against both the stimulus AND cap and trade.  Martha’s running as a clear conservative, and it’s increasingly looking like she’ll be running in a clear field.  Donate here.
  • Van Tran (CA-47).  State Assemblyman, political refugee.  Candidate for this D+4 seat.  Loretta Sanchez looks untouchable… on paper; but the district went for Bush in 2004, Sanchez has tax and appropriation votes (she’s one of the PMA Porkers) to answer for, and – most importantly – both the GOP and Tran are eager to have a race here.  The Democrats really don’t want to have to fight for this seat.  Donate here.
  • Rick Crawford (AR-01).  Businessman, military veteran.  Candidate for this R+8 seat.  He’s up against Marion Berry, who did not have any opposition last election cycle; Berry also seems to be the type who likes to have creative income disclosures, which I believe that Crawford and the NRCC will be happy to bring up.  As I’ve noted before, Crawford’s pro Tea-Party; and he’s got solid connections with the community.  Donate here.

…and that should get you started.  As I’ve said, these aren’t the only five candidates that the GOP is running; merely five more or less representative ones.  And note that the Republican party is not playing the 2010 elections not to lose; it’s making aggressive moves, and in places where it perhaps was too quick to concede in 2006 and 2008.

This should be an interesting election cycle.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • mbecker908

    And frankly, since Governor Palin has raised about $500,000 for attorney’s fees for ethics that the State of Alaska is legally bound to defend her (assuming she would just ask for certification that her actions were within the purview of her responsibilities as Governor), she could donate $100,000 to each of these folks. They’d be instant contenders and high profile candidates.

    Also, since at least two of them are running against Dems with ethics issues she could campaign for the challengers with real authority.

    How about it Sarah. Let’s get some Republican conservatives elected, huh?

  • SteveLA

    Moe

    CA 47 will be very interesting with two growing and quite different ethnic groups trying to gain dominance.

    Sanchez represents the growing Latino population in Santa Anna, Van Tran the large and growing Vietnamese population in Garden Grove.

    Tran being a CA R assembly member will be under a microscope for voters in CA fed up with Democratic overspending, and depending on how that mess works out, he’ll ether get a boost or a bust out of that.

    Sanchez will play the race card, big time, if there is an immigration bill put forward by Obama, but it’s not clear how the issue of illegal immigration will play in the Vietnamese community. Any plan that is put forth that lets people cut line ahead of those who are playing by the rules by standing in line for a green card would most likely not play well in Little Saigon.

    It would be great for the national R party to put some money into this race.

  • $peciallist

    the people of Garden Grove have been waiting in line a LONG time

    and I talk to many in Santa Ana that are FED UP with Dems…

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister
  • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

    …or should that be loaded for moose…or rather, moose hunter

    Her announcement doesn’t sit so well with me either. And I stilll haven’t heard anyone explain why the State of Alaska isn’t covering her legal expenses.

  • SteveLA

    civil

    That’s a darn good question, maybe Art said something about that, forgetful me. Might be determination of what actions were part of official duties and what was not to figure out which would and would not be covered by the state.

    Troopergate, probably should be covered by the state, other complaints…who knows.

  • mbecker908

    Josh Painter has been absolutely intellectually dishonest about it, claiming that she’s paying for it to save the state money and now that she’s resigned it all goes away anyway. He totally ignores the substance of the argument, that she refuses to request certification from the AG.

    Gary and some other idiot who posted a couple of Palin diaries are not nearly so smooth as Josh. They are just flat out liars.

    And, I really mean it when I say that last week I had no real issues with the Governor, I just didn’t care and I think we have more important business to attend to. This week, I have issues with her quitting and the arguments are BS (not bs ;-) ). In addition, I’m 100% sick and tired of ‘bots taking up bandwidth – and money – that could be better used.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • mbecker908

    with a standard indemnification clause. See here for Art’s detailed explanation. It leaves little to the imagination.

  • DONTREADONME

    “From hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee. Ye damned whale.” -Moby Dick

    mbecker, everytime I see you go after the woman whose name by which we do not speak, I think about Captain Ahab.

  • mbecker908

    Do we know what primary status on these folks is?

  • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

    …indicating that normally theState is mandated to cover her legal expenses regarding her actions in the course of her official duties.

    Art has repeated asked the Palin enthusiasts here to explain why she’s been building a legal defense fund to defend herself against the various ethics charges. mbecker908 and I are simply repeating the question again.

  • mbecker908
  • mbecker908

    It’s nothing more than a standard indemnification agreement for officers and directors. Every corporation of any size has one or they’d never be able to hire an officer or a director. Cities and towns (and states) have them for their police officers. I would guess every state has one for elected and appointed officials.

    There is absolutely nothing unusual about it. The only thing unusual about this is her not using it.

  • aesthete

    I’ll try to toss a few bucks their way later in the week. Thank you for the info.

  • $peciallist

    lol

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Cory Gardner is definitely the front-runner in fundraising. He’s the CO House Minority Whip, and a very good candidate. He just reported raising over $200K last quarter (first time since he just announced a couple of months ago). I’ve met him personally, and I think he’d be a great candidate. He’s from the eastern plains of CO, so he’s going to have some work to do to get known better along the Front Range. Whoever wins will have to win Larimer and Weld Counties. That’s primarily Fort Collins, Loveland & Greeley.

    CU Regent, Tom Lucero announced quite a long time ago, hoping to gain some ground by announcing early. He’s struggling to raise money, and since he hasn’t announced how much he raised yet, I’m guessing it’s not much. He only raised a little over $12K in the previous quarter, but said that was before he was trying to raise funds. We’ll see after the official numbers come out.

    Captain B. Diggs Brown, a former Fort Collins City Councilman, will also likely run. Right now, it’s a “Draft” movement because he’s currently serving in the Army in Africa. He served in Afghanistan after 9/11. You can read about him in his book “Your Neighbor Went To War” (Clifton House, ISBN: 0-97541158-0-8) He raised over $50K this past quarter, primarily from people who live in the 4th District.

  • mbecker908

    Where ya been, missed you.

    And, do you have any info on where they stand on issues?

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    I was working on some local campaigns for awhile, then started umpiring youth baseball and girls fastpitch softball. It’s consumed a lot more time than I thought it was going to, but I have to admit it’s been nice to push away from the keyboard and go out and enjoy some fun with the kids (the parents & coaches I could do without sometimes). I’ve missed being around, but work, umpiring & the usual chasing kids has just consumed all of my time. Glad to know I was missed. I had planned to put up a “big 5-0″ blog last week, but didn’t get to it. I still plan to do it, hopefully sometime this coming week.

    As for the issues, I’ve tried to get Lucero to talk about the issues, but all I get is a grin. Diggs can’t talk about issues because he isn’t a candidate, and he’s currently in the Army. Cory has some information on issues on his web page.

    Personally, from what I know about their record, I’d say Diggs is the most conservative (the get the gov’t out of my life sort), Cory is still very conservative and a real fighter, and Lucero is simply unknown other than the usual platitudes and pontificating.

    If I had to handicap the race, I’d say Cory is definitely the front-runner, Diggs has a chance but he’s already behind and won’t be able to campaign until November earliest, and Lucero is a very big longshot.

  • The_Stranger

    Berry WAS unopposed in 08, but won with 69% in 06.

    Seem like a pipedream to think Berry will lose in that district. I doubt the voters will react the same to the financial thing as some of us here might.

    The unfortunate fact is that those voters are the ones who get to vote. Not us.

  • Jonah Shumate

    I live in the 1st District and I can tell you that there are significant amount of farmers that are sick and tired of Berry, as well as people all across the District who are tired of what he is doing and since he has voted 94% of the time with Pelosi, people dont want CA politics in AR.

    Rick is going to win and he is going to do it because he is a true conservative, he is a military veteran, and he is as sharp as anyone who has run since Warren Dupwe in ’96. There is almost a built in 30% vote against Berry and since Rick is a small buisness owner among other things, his story and credentials resonate with people around here.

    He is one to watch and I am telling you that Berry will lose. Far too many people want someone who will actually represent their values and not do it when election season comes around or when there is a serious contender in a race against him. If you are in AR, please help us out by donating. We need help from people all across the country and anything you can give to him would be much appreciated.

  • AKSteveB
  • secondpatriot76

    Don’t forget about the first congressional district in Marland. The incumbent is freshman dem Frank Kratovil. He defeated State Senator Andy Harris by 1,000 plus votes thanks to the Bamsters coattails. This year Kratovil wont have Obama to hold onto.

    If the NRCC and the RNC really want to take back the House and win this race they better get off their butts and put out some effort.

  • The_Stranger

    Well then, maybe he can win.

    The numbers just struck me as insurmountable.

  • Martin Knight

    That won’t be a factor as well.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    NT

  • The_Stranger

    If you can give me several examples of an incumbent that won in the 69% range in 06, and then lost in 08, maybe I’d be more easily convinced.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Particularly since the actual comparison would be: won in [Election Cycle -2] by 69%, ran unopposed in [Election Cycle -1] , and is now being seriously challenged by the opposition while having to explain long-standing ethics questions [all the while in a district that's shifted GOP in the last eight years. Which you already know quite well.]

    You’re not really very good at this, are you?

  • azaeroprof

    If the GOP doesn’t take this seat back in ’10, we don’t deserve to be a party. Ann Kirkpatrick is a total zero. She only won the seat in ’08 because it was a Dem year and the DNCC threw a ton of money to win this district to replace Republican Rick Renzi who was under indictment and retiring.

    I’ve met at least one GOP candidate for this (sorry, don’t recall his name but he is a dentist from Flagstaff) and have heard that there are at least 1 or 2 others working on it.

    Add to this the fact that John McCain is running for re-election in ’10. I know most of us here at RedState don’t care much for McCain, but he is still very popular in Arizona and WILL have coattails.

  • aesthete

    But as far as the rest of your analysis, a perfect 10. I don’t know a ton about the district, but from what I do know, I can definitely see this as a potential GOP pickup, depending on the candidate.

  • naraht

    I’m surprised that you are talking about Obama’s coattails in MD-01, when McCain won MD-01 by 58%-40%, more or less the same amount that McCain won the MD-06, the only district in MD currently represented by a Republican.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Maryland doesn’t award its Presidential electors by CD.

  • naraht

    If the Dems are smart, then *somehow* Gilcrest gets appointed as the Republican representative to some bi-partisan commission on the Chesapeake Bay. It keeps his name in the news, doing something that he agrees with the Dems on. It will also allow Kratovil to be seen with him relatively frequently over the next two years…

    The other issue that whether or not Kratovil is still in office affects is redistricting. If Kratovil loses, then the Democrats will probably propose a redistricting that looks like the 1990 redistricting since the 2000 redistricting was designed to get rid of Ehrlich’s old district and make Connie Morella’s (a Republican so far left she made Gilchrest look like a CfG member) district too far left even more her. (the 1990 redistricting was relatively sane)

    if Kratovil is still in office, I think all of the rules go out the window. Don’t be surprised if the new MD-1 ends up crossing over the Chesapeake at some point other than the bridge to pick up Baltimore City or Prince George’s County African Americans.

  • naraht

    But there are places online that have worked out the vote in the Presidential Election in each of the Congressional Districts.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Obama *won* Maryland. Therefore it’s possible to talk of him having coattails there.

    How he did in any one subdivision of the state is irrelevant.

  • naraht

    By those standards, McCain should have had coattails in AZ-1 which he won by 54-44 and which the Democrat won the open seat by twenty points. Sometimes local factors trump coattails…

    In 2004, Bush won the district by 62%-36% and lost the entire state 56%-43%. In 2008, McCain won the district by 58%-38% (Dem 4% better, Rep 2% worse) and lost the entire state by 62%-37%.(Dem 6% better, Rep 6 % worse)

    In 2004, Gilcrest(R) beat Alexakis(D) by (71%-23%) and in 2008, Kratovil(D) beat Harris(R) (49.1-48.3). (Dem 26% better, Rep 23% worse).

    Yes, Obama’s coattails may have had a *small* effect, but local issues including a better known democrat and the support of current Republican Office Holder led to a change roughly four to five time larger than the presidential change.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • naraht

    from Wikipedia…

    The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election. For example, in the United States, the party of a victorious presidential candidate will often win many seats in Congress as well; these congressmen are voted into office ?on the coattails? of the president.

    *However* while it is a tendency, other local effects can override it in the other direction (See Cao – Jefferson in Louisiana) or be *more* significant than the coattail at the local level (See Kirkpatrick – Hay in Arizona 1 or Kratovil -Harris in Maryland 1). Given the close race, if Gilcrest had been the Republican nominee rather than Harris, there is no way that Kratovil would have won regardless of how well Obama did in the State of Maryland.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You fail.

  • eburke

    a conservative one?

    No way!! I mean, it’s the *conservatives* who are the small-minded, small-tent, my-way-or-the-highway, I refuse to vote for anyone who doesn’t see it my way reflexive Neanderthals>

    This has got to be part of some nefarious conservative plot because a moderate Republican has *never* failed to support the winned of a GOP primary.

    Have they?

  • naraht

    There is currently no Conservapedia entry for Coattails.

    The first four hits for articles on Conservapedia that mention coattails are for Reagan, James Madison, Ike and Harry Truman and the usage in all four of them matches with the definition on Wikipedia…

    My definition matches more or less with what’s on Wikipedia. While a good number of the seats won by the Democrats in 2008 were helped by Obama’s coattails, I’ve given several examples where it was not the overriding criteria.

    Please give your definition of Coattails.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • naraht

    In the “you don’t get it so nyah nyah, I’m not going to tell you. Pthhh” style of argument..

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • naraht

    The *only* positive statement that you’ve made in the discussion is

    “Obama *won* Maryland. Therefore it?s possible to talk of him having coattails there.

    How he did in any one subdivision of the state is irrelevant.”

    And after my responses indicating that there were other facts in that race which had significantly more impact that the gain that Obama had over Kerry, you’ve made no positive statement at all.

  • janis

    .