Good news, and good news on PA-SEN race.


'A bad harvest and a bloody primary!'

The good news: Pat Toomey’s (R Cand, PA) campaign (donate here) is reporting that he raised 1.6 million dollars in the second quarter of 2009.

Mr. Toomey’s strong first campaign quarter fundraising compares favorably with those of successful U.S. Senate challengers in the last election. In fact, he has raised more than every successful 2008 challenger. In his first quarter as a Senate candidate, Mr. Toomey has raised more than candidates Al Franken (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kay Hagen (D-NC), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Mark Begich (D-AK), all of whom went on to defeat incumbent U.S. senators

The other good news: Joe Sestak’s (D Cand, PA) primary campaign against Arlen Specter (Arlen Specter, PA) is being reasonably well funded.

Sestak raised $1 million-plus in the spring

U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak plans to report this week that he raised a little more than $1 million in the second quarter this year, giving him $4.2 million in the bank for an expected Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter, campaign officials said yesterday.

“We believe this means we will have more cash on hand than any Senate challenger,” said Joe Langdon, spokesman for Sestak’s campaign committee. “As you know, this was achieved without the institutional support of the Democratic establishment.”

Have a nice, long, ruthless primary season there, Democrats.  Oh, and Joe?  If you run out of things to toss at Arlen, don’t hesitate to give the VRWC a call for new material.  We have a list.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


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So, John Cornyn

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 1:34PM EST (link)

Feeling stupid yet?

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Shhh

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 1:36PM EST (link)

He might endorse Specter again.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 
 

Sestak Winning The Primary Is Key

DavidSage (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 3:54PM EST (link)

Toomey’s chances to win go up dramatically if Sestak wins the primary, especially since 2010 should historically favor Republicans.

If Arlen wins the primary though. I’m afraid Toomey winning the Senate race will be a huge uphill battle, no matter how much Toomey raises. Remember, Santorum handily outspent his challenger, but ended up losing in a landslide.

Unfortunately ,the swing voters that decide these elections actually like politicians that switch parties, probably since these same voters also can’t decide which party to support. Throw in the fact that Specter is a longtime incumbent that easily wins every general election, is perceived as a moderate, and is a cancer survivor, that adds up to being the odds on favorite.

I’m hoping Pennsylvania voters will realize what a snake he is, but if they haven’t figured it out by now, they probably never will.

The conservative base needs to start Operation Chaos 2.0 and make sure Sestak wins the Democrat primary.

No more operation chaos's...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 4:12PM EST (link)

WE are smart enough to see where that left us last election. 2010 is going to be a Republican SWEEP and there is no need to mess with the primaries. Toomey wins no matter who he runs against. Let the Democrats’ KILL each other in the primaries. The electorate is going to be BEGGING to STOP Obama and they know the way to do that is to elect Republicans REAL Republicans NOT squishy D lite. The TEA Parties are an indication and Obama’s FAILING numbers vis a vis Rasmussen are the indicators of a Republican SWEEP if they stay on message of SMALL GOVERNMENT!

Strongly Disagree

DavidSage (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 4:46PM EST (link)

It’s never a good idea to assume that voters will just run into your arms. We’re going to have to fight hard (and dirty) for every win.

2010 will have some strong tailwinds helping Republicans, but it won’t be like 1994. There just aren’t that many competitive Senate seats in this election cycles and there aren’t as many retirements. Also, I believe America was still a more conservative country than it is now. Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat, and still would have lost had it not been for Ross Perot.

Incumbents tend to win, even when political parties fall out of favor. The Democrats have incredible margins in both the House and Senate, and it will take several election cycles to get the majority back.

I believe we keep the seats we have and win 6 more...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 5:05PM EST (link)

the House is where WE make the biggest DENT of all and I never said they will run into our arms….WE WIN on SMALL GOVERNMENT and STATE RIGHTS period. So I strongly disagree with you that getting into their primaries is a winning strategy Obama is ABSOLUTE proof of that failed tactic.

We will need no tactics we only need people who HONESTLY agree that the government is too big and that the leftist’s if left in charge will have all hard working American’s tied to the government teat if allowed to continue unabated. That their freeedom to choose how they want to live their lives without government interference will be lost for generations to come if we do not win the House back. It is a coming together of Republican’s ie: right of center and libertarians. It will be a sweep and I will be here posting right up until election night and we can then discuss if it was a winning strategy.

Pickup’s are AR, CT, CO, IL, NV, WA, just my opinion on the seats we pickup. I envision Rubio in Florida and Toomey in PA which even though they are R will actually be picked up by two Conservatives.

No way...

adamy Monday, July 13th at 5:34PM EST (link)

Pickup’s are AR, CT, CO, IL, NV, WA, just my opinion on the seats we pickup. I envision Rubio in Florida and Toomey in PA which even though they are R will actually be picked up by two Conservatives.

Do you really believe that? I just don’t see it.

Blanche Lincoln will (if she’s smart) try to put some distance between herself and the ObamaDems that are pushing national health care and this bogus climate bill. The only way she gets ousted is if the GOP can field a strong candidate. Wouldn’t it be great if Mike Huckabee could be drafted to run against her? That would be huge. Failing that, who else is there?

CT – Dodd is going nowhere. Those liberals are not going to elect a Republican in CT. Even if Obama’s national numbers fall below 50 percent, they are still going to be above that in CT. Look for Obama to make his appearance and look for the CT voters to act like he is the second coming of Christ. Dood’s numbers have nowhere to go but up. His weakness among Democrats will go away. He has been in trouble before and made it. I just don’t see it. I hope I am wrong.

CO – Possible we can get it back. Salazar is a freshman and CO has a libertarian bent that might not take kindly to Obama’s statism. I still give it better than even odds of staying blue.

IL – Kirk has a real shot. That climate bill vote really irritated me and I suspect that conservatives are not going to be too pleased. Still, he’s got the name and we could get the seat in a wave. Probably about a 40 percent chance of flipping it.

NV – Reid isn’t going anywhere without a credible challenger. THAT is a sin on our part. If the Republicans can find a half-way decent candidate then the majority leader will have a HUGE target on his back. Why can’t Republicans find a heavy hitter?

WA – Nah.

Rubio is not going to win the primary. He’s got no money and Crist is raising cash fast. He’ll hold the seat for the GOP.

Toomey isn’t going to win statewide in PA.

and you know what the beauty of that is adamy....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 7:00PM EST (link)

those are your opinions and just so you recognize each of us is entitled to them and I will bank on Rubio against Crist any day of the week! Toomey will take PA and Dodd will be gone. I feel good about my other picks but I am most confident in those.

you make a good case gal - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 7:08PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 

To do That

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Monday, July 13th at 8:53PM EST (link)

Picks ups in CT and IL require ‘RINOS’ winning, Simmons and Kirk. It’s almost 8/09 and we have no candidates recruited in AR, NV, WA.

How are we winning those races without candidates?

Give It Time

IJB Tuesday, July 14th at 12:28AM EST (link)

Candidates in those races could show up as late as 03/10-ish, and still have a reasonable shot at it.

If the poll numbers keep going south on Reid & Lincoln, someone will show up to challenge them.

(I’m not nearly as sanguine about places like WA or CA…)

 
 

Not sure CT will be a pickup,

The_Gadfly (Diary) Tuesday, July 14th at 12:25PM EST (link)

but I agree Dodd will be gone. The stench of corruption around him is getting so bad you can smell it through your tv.