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‘Hmm, let me see what Rasmussen’s put up today…’ Toomey 48%, Specter 36%

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  August 13th, 2009 at 08:27 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

:sound effect of mouthful of coffee being sprayed across the monitor:

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

:pause:

Wow.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • mbecker908

    the major election issues are apparent is so stupid. Realistically we’re not even close to a point where polling can be meaningful for 2010 let along ’12.

    Wonder if the NRSC is going to start supporting Toomey.

  • jeffreywturner

    I know, I know, we shouldn’t get our hopes up.

    But just think if we could rid ourselves of Arlen Specter and Harry Reid in the same year?

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …it’s very meaningful for the healthcare rationing bill. :)

  • Ausonius

    were not representative of the majority.

    If Rasmussen is even halfway close to being accurate, Specter is still behind.

    I can agree that the poll means not much for 2010: still, if we have the trend going our way, the task is to build upon it, widen it, and overwhelm the Dems next year.

  • mbecker908

    And healthcare is a current issue. My point would be related to polling like the initial T/S polls, or the Mario/Crist polling, one-on-one, way out, too far out to have a meaningful discussion about the candidates and the issues because essentially, there are no “issues” that far out but name rec.

  • Darin_H

    Arlen the jumper is in a REAL bind. This is, after all, a general election poll – I bet the partisan breakdown of those supporting Obamacare and supporting Arlen match up pretty well. So what’s Arlen to do?

    He has to win the primary first, and if he votes against killing the old and the infirmObamacare, no way that he wins the primary. If he votes for Obamacare, he may still lose the primary, but he’s dead in the water for the general. I have just one thought on that – DELICIOUS!

  • GOP84

    A reckoning is coming, Arlen!

  • GOP84

    A reckoning is coming, Arlen!

  • GOP84

    Mbecker’s only polling is exit polling. Any earlier than that, and it’s just too soon to tell…

  • GOP84

    Mbecker’s only polling is exit polling. Any earlier than that, and it’s just too soon to tell…

  • eburke

    with that flummoxed, blank, deer-in-the-headlights look as his constituents excoriated him at townhalls, and throw in the clip of Arlen playing the martyr as he says “I don’t have to be here” and those numbers will just keep growing.

    The only thing worse than a RINO is a self-serving traitor. Karma is a beautiful thing.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    nt

  • eburke

    I mean, a conservative Republican just can’t *win* in Pennsylvania!

    So decreeth the Colin Powell/John Cornyn/Mehgan McCain wing of the GOP and the Washington pundits who *always* have the GOP’s best interest at heart.

    Hmmm…I wonder if I conservative could win in Florida?

    Nah!

  • smitch61

    I think this statement pretty much sealed his fate….

  • George Claghorn
  • Ausonius

    that moderate, compromising, middle-of-the-road, friendly-to-liberals Republicans LOSE elections!

    My greatest fear is that these RINO characters still in office think that the party lost because they were not left-wing enough, and will start making deals on the Hell-th Care Plan to make themselves seem reasonable and moderate.

  • penguin2

    liberal (Rino) types. Crist is going to end up looking bad, if the people of Florida really understand how his support of increased taxes, a failed Stimulus bill and other Democrat lite behaviors will adversely affect them.

    I also could never, ever picture Marco Rubio saying “I don’t have to be here.” He struck me as an individual that would stand and face the people whether they were in agreement with him or not. In fact, I think he would seek out the folks to address their concerns in an honest and respectful manner.

    I realize this is Specter’s line, but somehow Crist and other Republicans who fall into that Dem. lite group, may well be facing some of the same hard questions that the Dems are running from.

  • http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/blog/loren_heal Socrates

    for Toomey’s rise in the polls.

    But you failed to even mention Toomey’s appearance at the Redstate Gathering.

    Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

  • rightfield24

    Satisfying as it may be to punch out Specter’s lights next year,
    it would be hard to turn Specter’s seat red. His prospective
    primary opponent, is Rep. Sestak, as sensible former Navy admiral
    I heard speak at a defense technology expo in May. Being
    a noncareer politician, he can bludgeon (turncoat) Specter in
    the primary with the townhall footage and then benefit from the
    decidedly blue tinge of PA voting in recent years. Santorum, sadly,
    appears to have been an anomaly. Toomey’s a worthy guy, but
    barring a tidal wave, PA’s gonna be a tough nut .

  • mbecker908

    What matters is polling on specific issues, and trend polling over time. That has a good shot at telling you something, assuming you understand the polling metrics.

    What is utter foolishness is citing individual polls for or against any particular candidate or issue especially when those polls are asking very broad questions and the polling metrics are suspect. As an example I would cite any of the “candidate polling” v. Obama aimed at 2012.

    Polling NOW aimed at 2010 races where the candidates are well identified and the issues are beginning to be identified are useful as long as you are looking at tracking polls taken consistently over time and not an individual snapshot and the Senatorial race in PA, along with the Senatorial primary in FL would be two races that I would put in that category. Watch the trend lines, not the individual polling.

  • IJB

    Gosh, thanks for the advice, but I think we’ll ignore it, thanks.

    (Aside: For the GOP to win PA, you just have Philly vote totals be low. I’m thinking that’s not going to be a problem next year…)

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    [ NT]

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Thanks for checking in.

  • Richard Mullins
  • George Claghorn
  • farstar99

    Besides, have you seen Specter lately?
    I’m not sure he’s going to live long enough to run again.

  • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

    Sestak is an unknown factor and we don’t know how effectively big labor can rally votes and throw in money in the general. Nor how much voter intimidation and fraud will come down in Philadelphia. Nor the state of the economy. Nor the fate of ObamaCare, Cap-n’-Tax, and Card Check. Nor foreign events or things that aren’t even on the radar today. Plus all the state-specific issues.

    Given all that, what we do know, as rightfield24 has rightly observed is the increasingly blue voting pattern of Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia suburbs have shifted noticeably blue over the past several decades. The default is for people to regress to the mean come election time, which means that conditions are going to have to be favorable for a Republican resurgence and Toomey is going to have to run a good campaign in the general. And planning will be challenging because Sestak and Specter bring radically different strengths and weaknesses, which means a different strategy depending on the opponent and thus a shorter lead time.

    Now it is exciting that the voter pools have shifted so much as they have; it does remove the air of inevitability over Specter and thus help rally money and support for Toomey and perhaps preempt kneecapping efforts by RINOs. But it’s much to early to count chickens yet. The worm may well turn several times yet before November 2010.

  • eburke

    years ’cause that portion of his anatomy ceased functioning when he started citing Scottish law as his rationale for voting to acquit Bill Clinton of the impeachment articles.

  • eburke

    Wow….now *that’s* a sleeper account.

  • eburke
  • clement

    he would have seen Toomey leads Sestak by 8%. What a fool.

  • Menlo

    Among likely Democrat primary voters right now, Specter leads Sestak 47-34.

  • Martin Knight

    And you’re here trying to sow discouragement with him?