Looking at the Cook Competitive Race Chart.


Looking at the Cook Political Report’s latest competitive race chart is in itself informative - the short version is that of the top 108 competitive races, the following ratios apply:

Dem GOP
Likely D 45 0
Leans D 23 1
Toss-up D 12 0
Toss-up R 0 3
Leans R 1 8
Likely R 0 15
Total 81 27

…but there’s some interesting things that can be seen with a little sorting. Below is a chart of competitive seats, sorted by Cook Partisan Rating:

TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
IN-3 Mark Souder R+14
KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
TN-6 Bart Gordon R+13
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
AK-AL Don Young R+13
TN-3 OPEN (Wamp) R+13
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
SC-1 Henry Brown R+10
TX-10 Michael McCaul R+10
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9
AR-1 Marion Berry R+8
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
TN-8 John Tanner R+6
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
AR-2 Vic Snyder R+5
NY-29 Eric Massa R+5
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
KS-3 Dennis Moore R+3
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
NY-19 John Hall R+3
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
VA-10 Frank Wolf R+2
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
PA-12 John Murtha R+1
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0
MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
WA-3 Brian Baird D+0
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
OR-4 Peter DeFazio D+2
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-7 Ed Perlmutter D+4
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4
PA-6 OPEN (Gerlach) D+4
CA-20 Jim Costa D+5
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
IA-1 Bruce Braley* D+5
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25

As you can see, there are a lot of Democratic incumbents in districts that typically vote Republican in Presidential elections, and almost no Republican incumbents in districts that vote Democratic. For that matter, something like 72% of the total competitive races are in Republican districts… which would sound like bad news for the GOP, except that Democratic-held seats make up 75% of both the total and particularly competitive races surveyed by Cook. The midpoint for that list is at R+3; below that point there are 14 GOP districts held by Democrats, and only 7 Democratic ones held by Republicans.

What does that mean, in terms of the 2010 elections? Well, if you assume that every district held by Democrats that’s at R+4 and above gets flipped, every incumbent between R+3 and D+0 keeps his or her seat, and that every Republican in a Democratic district loses his or her seat… the Democrats lose 31 seats next year. Assume that an incumbent needs to at least break even (i.e., has at least a R or D+0), and the number goes up to 48 seats lost by the Democrats. Split the difference, and now you know why Charlie Cook is pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances next year.

Moving on, here is a map of the cross-party-held seats:

Cook

As the key notes, Red shows states with at least one vulnerable Democrat-held seat; Blue shows states with at least one vulnerable GOP-held; and Purple are states with at least one of each. Again, there’s a lot more in the first category than there are in the second and third. The reason that this is important is that the exceptionally wide geographical spread of the territory that the Democrats will have to defend next year should make for some entertainingly hard choices for the White House. Assuming that the administration comes out swinging for the midterms… well, it can either pick its spots (at a guess: NY, OH, & PA) and abandon the rest, or it can try to defend everything (and thus defend nothing). Obviously, neither choice is really optimal.

Conclusion: as of this moment, one year in it looks good for the GOP to get a large number of seats back. One year in.

This will change.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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CO-3 & CO-7

NightTwister Thursday, November 12th at 7:50PM EST (link)

CO-3 doesn’t have a competitive challenger (yet), and we’ll have to wait to see if Frazier moving into the CO-7 race makes that one competitive or not.

It does now.

Third Street Thursday, November 12th at 8:02PM EST (link)

Apparently my dictionary has a different definition of "competitive".

NightTwister Thursday, November 12th at 8:11PM EST (link)

2010 Won't Be 2006

IJB Thursday, November 12th at 11:30PM EST (link)

I know nothing about the details on Tipton, but if everything is exactly the same as it was in 2006, Tipton will get more than 37%, and Salazar will get less than 62%.

Enough for Titpon to win? Probably not.
But it should be closer. Perhaps a lot closer…

Sorry, this looks like deperation.

NightTwister Thursday, November 12th at 11:32PM EST (link)

The Colorado GOP has issues….both inside the State and from outside influence. The only solid race we have here is CO-4, yet would should be cleaning up.

I Don't Know The Local Details

IJB Thursday, November 12th at 11:49PM EST (link)

I’m just saying that people who got blown out 4 years ago are unlikely to get blown out next year.

Well, I do.

NightTwister Friday, November 13th at 8:56AM EST (link)

I’m here in CO, and am following all the races closely. Unfortunately Salazar is popular in CO-3. The Western Slope is a strange mix of voters.

 
 
 
 

If you're using 2006 as a baseline then you're making the same mistake most of the pundits are.

Third Street Friday, November 13th at 2:28AM EST (link)

2006 was a very good year for Democrats and a very, very bad one for Republicans. So bad that the GOP failed to flip a single Senate seat, House seat, or governorship held by the other party. I believe ‘06 was the first election cycle in American history in which that happened to either of the two major parties.

2006 and 2008 were atypical cycles. It will be many years before the Dems get that lucky again. In a strong GOP year (and we’re looking at a frickin’ tidal wave), Tipton is very, very viable.

You're living in a dream world.

NightTwister Friday, November 13th at 9:03AM EST (link)

Salazar was first elected in 2004. He wasn’t swept in with the discontent of 2006 or 2008. He’s quite popular in CO-3, even now. McInnis (R Candidate for Gov.) held the seat before him. McInnis ran as a pro-choice moderate Republican. I’m not saying Salazar is unbeatable, but I don’t see him getting beat by a recycled candidate that got creamed.

Markey beat Musgrave in CO-4 in 2008, a Republican-leaning district. There’s only one person less popular in CO-4 right now than Betsy Markey, and that’s Marilyn Musgrave. If she tried again, even in the current climate, she’d get creamed again.

I deal in reality.

Third Street Friday, November 13th at 1:13PM EST (link)

And next year no Democrat in a seat like that, facing a viable Republican candidate, is safe. That’s the thing about wave elections; they tend to sweep out even “popular” Democrats like Salazar. And that’s a fact.

Where are you located?...nt.

NightTwister Friday, November 13th at 4:32PM EST (link)

Right here behind my desk! (nt)

Third Street Friday, November 13th at 4:47PM EST (link)

Never mind then...nt.

NightTwister Friday, November 13th at 8:25PM EST (link)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Outstanding Moe. nt

Aaron Gardner Thursday, November 12th at 7:51PM EST (link)

Aaron’s Archive

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

 

Also, keep in mind that it IS Charlie Cook.

Third Street Thursday, November 12th at 7:59PM EST (link)

Good old partisan Democrat Charlie Cook, who worked for a Democrat senator, who never saw 1994 coming, who has endorsements from Bob Schieffer and Dana Milbank on his front page, and who rated the New Jersey governor’s race as “Safe D” well into the summer (and who still has that rating for David Paterson in New York).

I believe there are even more competitive races than this. If ol’ Charlie says it’s bad for the D’s, then it’s probably worse.

Worse won't be helpful

antisocial Thursday, November 12th at 9:33PM EST (link)

Waterloo is better. We need to keep fighting. 2010 is our best chance(probably only) to prevent disaster.

No you can’t - Moe Lane
——————————
The Emperor has no clothes!!!
——————————
Republicans who lost the Crap-and-Raid fight in the House -
Mary Bomo Mac (CA-45)
Mike Castle (DE)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Frank A. LoBiondo (NJ-02)
Chris Smith (NJ-04)
Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
John M. McHugh (NY-23)
Dave Reichert (WA-08)

 

It Should Be (Read: Will) Be Worse

IJB Thursday, November 12th at 11:46PM EST (link)

If the Congressional vote for the GOP in 2010 is 53R/46D, roughly what it was in 2004, and roughly the reverse of what the congressional vote was in 2008, it means every district that is *D+3*, or better, could potentially swing to the GOP!
(It also would mean that a number of those “vulnerable” GOP Congressman in “hostile” districts would hold on…)

Taking Moe’s numbers - in that scenario the GOP could pick something like 58(+) seats.

And, if the bottom falls out of D numbers (e.g. the ‘generic Congressional vote’ poll question goes to *more* than R+5), and you start to get potentially really large numbers!

Obama’s best (pretty much *only*) chance at this point is for the economy to appreciably improve by next Summer. Unfortunately for him, his own economic policies pretty much preclude that from happening.

Heh.

 
 

TX-23

ktsub Thursday, November 12th at 8:02PM EST (link)

Francisco “Quico” Cansecois back to take on Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23.
He lost in the primary round in 2008, but would have had the best chance to flip this competitive seat.

Just updated his website, this will be a good chance for pick-up.

http://www.cansecoforcongress.com/

Canseco has been on my radar screen since 2004

Richard Mullins Thursday, November 12th at 11:50PM EST (link)

when he first ran in TX-28 and later after redistricting TX-23. He’s a good conservative and I mind voting for him.

For more on my views, go my wordpress site:
http://rpmullins.wordpress.com

For more on Happy jet airlines, go here:
http://happyjetairlines.wordpress.com

For a good dose of satire go here:
http://thesquash.wordpress.com

For more of I like to do a lot:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42008626@N03

 
 

Simply amazing

bambino33 Thursday, November 12th at 8:30PM EST (link)

Obviously the Democrat Plan is to just deny or outright lie.

Lies:

1. Americans are for this bill, any poll you look at shows Americans are against the Health Bill by 57-43%

2. Don’t rush to judgement when we can all see the facts point to the fact that Hasan was a terrorist they did nothing about because of new Political Correctness standards in the FBI and the Army. Poll’s show 60% of Americans feel Hasan was a a terrorist.

3. Americans don’t favor the endless deficit spending. Voters in Virginia and New Jersey pointed to this in exit polls, NJ a deep blue state 6 points, VA a state Obama won, 18 points for the Republican.

People have figured out this lier, his words, his actions, even what he doesn’t act on gives him away. He wants full blow socialism and if he has to deny the truths of how Americans feel to impliment it he will. Damn the torpedeos full speed ahead. We will win in 2010 and win big, I say at least 40 seats. Strangely enough I actually think Obama wants his congress to lose in 2010 so he can constrast himself to the new congress, thus sell himself as balance. Of course by then he will have accomplished his socialist agenda.

 

Braley Question

Charlie Thursday, November 12th at 8:44PM EST (link)

IA-1 Bruce Braley* is my congressman — What does the “*” denote?
Thanks in advance!

–cpac

Leftover from the cutting and pasting, Charlie.

Moe Lane Thursday, November 12th at 10:11PM EST (link)

Denotes a possible retirement, according to the map key.

A possible Braley retirement?

Third Street Friday, November 13th at 3:08AM EST (link)

Interesting… he’s only in his second term.

 
 
 

NC-4 and NC-13

VizBiz Thursday, November 12th at 9:11PM EST (link)

NC-4 we have a strong canadite running against David Price. His name is Frank Roche and he will meeting with Dick Armey tomorrow (barring any unforeseen scheduling conflict). We will be working very hard for this guy.

NC-13 is Bill Randell (an African American Christian Conservative/ ex-Navy) all around awesome guy running against Brad Miller. We will be hitting the pavement for this campaign too.

Two strong conservative canidates with a solid chance of upsetting two Libs.

Runs with scissors, walks with Wacom.

NC-4

ottomustaine Thursday, November 12th at 10:50PM EST (link)

I lived in NC-4 for years and years until 2007 when I moved to Sue Myrick’s district in Charlotte. I believe the last time David Price lost was 1994, wasn’t it? If anything I think NC-4 is even more liberal now, so I’m not holding my breath for that commie Price to lose. Let’s just say any district that includes Chapel Hill and parts of Durham always is going to be difficult for the GOP. But hopefully history will repeat itself in 2010.

 

NC-4

ottomustaine Thursday, November 12th at 10:50PM EST (link)

I lived in NC-4 for years and years until 2007 when I moved to Sue Myrick’s district in Charlotte. I believe the last time David Price lost was 1994, wasn’t it? If anything I think NC-4 is even more liberal now, so I’m not holding my breath for that commie Price to lose. Let’s just say any district that includes Chapel Hill and parts of Durham always is going to be difficult for the GOP. But hopefully history will repeat itself in 2010.

 

Wake County School Board

reddwarf Friday, November 13th at 11:02AM EST (link)

What do you make of the recent WC School Board results? I, for one, thoroughly enjoyed the professional edumacators angst, and the NAACP’s whining and threats of legal action.

The low turnout I took as indicative of a collapse of support for the decades-long liberal and teacher union dominance, their mad experimentation, heavy-handedness, and crisis mode of operation (where they keep everyone on edge and stressed out, grateful for whatever crumbs they afford).

Given Wake County is the capital county of the tenth largest state, that there has just been a seismic shift in the school board, operating the second largest school system in NC, I’m surprised no one has looked at it and the issues…

IMO Brad Miller is vulnerable, big time. He ought to be a prime target.

 
 

FL-2 Boyd - Meece running against

Fla Mom Thursday, November 12th at 11:28PM EST (link)

The only candidate I know of to date who is running against Allen Boyd is Carl Meece, Chairman of the Republican Party of Suwannee County.

From WhoRunsGov.com:

“In the last 12 years Boyd has won re-election with relative ease, despite the fact that Republican presidential candidates have carried the district with roughly 54 percent in the last three presidential elections…. Though there was speculation that Boyd would run for the Senate in 2004 when Bob Graham (D-Fla.) launched a presidential campaign, and again in 2009 when Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) announced his retirement, both times Boyd decided to run for reelection to the House.

“Al Lawson, a Democratic state Senator being forced out by term limits, is gearing up to challenge Boyd in the 2010 primary, but analysts say he is unlikely to succeed because of disadvantages in fundraising. Lawson, who is African-American, hopes to take advantage of demographic shifts (31 percent of registered voters in the district are black), and says Boyd is too conservative.

“Boyd has long been a leader within the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of 51 fiscally conservative House Democrats. In 2009, he was named chairman of the newly-established 15-member Blue Dog Budget and Financial Services Task Force…and has been vocal in the press in his concerns about recent federal spending….”

(Cherrypicked) From Project Vote Smart (but remember that a possible primary opponent called him too *conservative*):

Representative Boyd supported the interests of Planned Parenthood 83 percent in 2008.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the National Family Planning & Reproductive Health Association 100 percent in 2007-2008.

Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to National Right to Life Committee’s position, Representative Boyd received a rating of 0 for 2007-2008.

In 2007 NARAL Pro-Choice America gave Representative Boyd a grade of 100.

In 2008 National Taxpayers Union gave Representative Boyd a rating of F.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the American Civil Liberties Union 73 percent in 2007-2008.

In 2008 American Conservative Union gave Representative Boyd a rating of 12 percent.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the The Club for Growth 21 percent in 2008.

In 2007-2008 National Education Association gave Representative Boyd a grade of A.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the Family Research Council 5 percent in 2007-2008.

In 2008 National Rifle Association gave Representative Boyd a grade of A, in its scorecard for candidates seeking office in 2008.

In 2007-2008 English First gave Representative Boyd a grade of F.

Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to Federation for American Immigration Reform’s position, Representative Boyd received a rating of 23 in 2007-2008.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 71 percent in 2008.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees 71 percent in 2008.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 75 percent in 2008.

Representative Boyd supported the interests of the PFLAG, Parents, Families and Friends of Lesbians and Gays 100 percent in 2007.

In 2008 The Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law gave Representative Boyd a grade of 88 percent.

For 2007-2008, the National Organization for Women gave Representative Boyd a rating of 93 percent.

A good candidate who makes information like this known about Allen Boyd might have a good chance of winning, assuming rural turnout was sufficient (Tallahassee is in the district and skews it to the left).

Fla Mom

 

VA-11 Connolly will not have 0bama coat-tales to ride...

DONTREADONME Thursday, November 12th at 11:48PM EST (link)

yes, I misspelled tales, I see VA-11 going R in the 2010, especially after the off year election and Connolly’s vote on Cap n Tax, Stimulus, and HR Pelosicare (whichever one were on). Gerry Connolly is a one term critter who needs to go back to the Fairfax county board where he belongs, or run against Moran in the primary, he’s not representing PWC.

“The UN is right? you can’t be any more “un”; Than you are right now, the UN is undone, Another mushroom cloud, another smoking gun, The threat is real, the Locust King has come, Don’t tell me the truth; I don’t like what they’ve done, Just give me ammo for the United Abominations”-Megadeth

 

IL-13

Illinicon Friday, November 13th at 1:27AM EST (link)

I live in the district and I doubt it is going to be a competive race. Biggert did have her worst showing yet in 08 but that was still a 10 point win and the Dems here had massive Barry cotails as the youth vote turned out for him. She is facing the same opponet as 08 who has no name ID. If the Dems thought that this could be a competive race they had plenty of better candidates to run. Biggert will win by atleast 15 points.

Jindal/Thompson ‘12

Bringing clear Conservative change to America.

You and I both live in the same district!

DavidS1787 Friday, November 13th at 1:38AM EST (link)

I believe that we need a better Candidate than Judy Biggert!!!!!!

Scott Harper the Democrat is worse .

We need a fresh Pro life candidate with conservative values!

That is a We need

DavidS1787 Friday, November 13th at 1:40AM EST (link)

a fresh Pro life Republican candidate with conservative values!

 

Illinois Posters

proudgop Friday, November 13th at 1:18PM EST (link)

can we take down Bean, Debbie, and Foster this cycle?

 
 
 

I believe that we have a good Chance to pick up these three Democratic Seats in the House.....

DavidS1787 Friday, November 13th at 1:48AM EST (link)

IL-8 Melissa Bean
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson
IL-14 Bill Foster

Can you explain?

bauer Friday, November 13th at 9:56AM EST (link)

IL-8
The district went 56% for Obama.
Bean won with 60% of the vote.
Is there even a Republican candidate yet?

Republicans

proudgop Friday, November 13th at 1:21PM EST (link)

republicans controlled IL 8 for long time under Crane and he lost due to ethical problems and Bean has not really been tested since

 
 
 

Obamacare turncoat in bad shape

dittohead Friday, November 13th at 8:33AM EST (link)

Looks like old Joseph Cao will get trounced in Cold Cash Jefferson’s former district.. Is there a possibility of a primary challenge?

 

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