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State races are vitally important this year.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  November 13th, 2009 at 11:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This is why.

In the 43 states where the congressional redistricting process is in partisan hands, Democrats control both houses of the state legislature and the governor’s mansion in 15 states, while Republicans hold 8 states, and 20 states are split between the two parties. Going into 2010, Democrats control redistricting in nearly twice as many states as Republicans, but states where the GOP controls the process – for instance Florida, Texas, and Utah – are also the most likely to be adding congressional seats. And for the first time since it joined the union in 1850, California may not add a congressional seat.

…37 states will elect new governors and 36 new state legislatures next fall. That means that every state house race – especially in states like Tennessee, where the legislature is closely-­divided – has the potential to have effect on the next decade’s political landscape.

(Via 73Wire, via The Other McCain)

Let’s look very quickly at the eight states listed here as being the ones most likely to lose seats:

  • Iowa: The legislature has final say over redistricting plans. 56/44 Dem/GOP in the House, 32/18 in the Senate.
  • Louisiana: Currently split in control and the state house representatives do not have elections in 2010.
  • Massachusetts: State legislature does redistricting.  141/19 Dem/GOP in the House, 35/5 in the Senate, and at least they can’t actually take away a Republican’s Congressional District from him or her.
  • Michigan: State legislature does redistricting. 67/43 Dem/GOP in the House, but 21/17 GOP/Dem in the Senate.
  • New Jersey: Done by independent commission and there will be no state legislature elections in 2010.
  • New York: State legislature does redistricting. 104/41 Dem/GOP in the House, 32/30 Dem/GOP in the Senate.
  • Ohio: State legislature does redistricting.  53/46 Dem/GOP in the House, 21/12 GOP/Dem in the Senate.
  • Pennsylvania: Bipartisan redistricting. 104/99 Dem/GOP in the House, 30/20 GOP/Dem in the Senate.

I note this because by now the conventional wisdom has shifted from whether the Democrats will lose seats in 2010 to how many seats the Democrats will lose.  This means that, among other things, Democrats in the states that are losing House seats anyway will have, perhaps, an incentive in creatively redrawing Congressional District boundaries for 2012.  This makes it very important that state races are supported; good nights in Iowa and Ohio could save the GOP seats in the long run.

So support your local and state GOP.  There isn’t any such thing as a meaningless race: they’re all important.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • djemi

    Does the redistricting process happen before or after the 2010 elections.

  • Achance

    But not to worry, after the ACORN conducted census, there will be no people in any Republican controlled state.

  • http://electioninfo.wordpress.com jamesvw

    I just wrote a diary detailing upcoming legislative races – because all of these are so important.

    The party that builds the best from the bottom-up is going to prevail time and again.

  • djemi

    So does that mean you guys up there will end up with 1/2 a vote in the House.

  • Mayhem

    The General Assembly controls redistricting in Indiana, and the Indiana House is barely controlled by the Democrats (52-48, I believe). The Indiana Senate is firmly in GOP control and Mitch Daniels is the Republican governor. So, the 2010 State elections in Indiana are extremely important. Taking back the Indiana House could mean a potential pick up of 2 congressional seats currently held by Blue Dogs, just through redistricting. Donnelly, Ellsworth, and Hill were swept into office in the waves of 2006 and 2008, and they would be prime targets under a GOP redistricting plan (assuming they are not tossed out by the voters themselves in 2010)

  • Achance

    in his Congress. All those states full of bitter gun and Bible clinging people will just be represented by their betters in the more civilized Blue States. They’ll just count people like the count votes; keep counting till you get it right.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    ;-)

  • Achance
  • Finrod

    I recall reading that in Iowa, the district lines are drawn by a panel of retired judges. The state legislature may have the final say, but from what I remember, I don’t think they mess with it very much if at all. This is why the House district lines in Iowa look much more regular and uniform (they actually almost always follow county boundaries) than the insane gerrymandered squiggles that other states often have.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    Just cause a whole lot of physical violence.

  • djemi
  • nessa
  • scarlos

    IIRC, Indiana law says that whoever controls the Governors seat and at least one house of congress gets to redraw the borders, regardless of whoever controls the other.

  • proudgop

    Redistricting is very important

    MA, CT, NJ all slated to lose 1
    NY 2

    While states like GA, FL, UT, TX and NC slated to gain

    really is important we hold Gov mansion in FL, GA, and TX and hold state house in Texas

  • scarlos

    Texas: +4
    Florida: +2
    Arizona: + 2
    Georgia: +1
    Utah: +1
    Nevada: + 1
    South Carolina: + 1

    Ohio: -2
    Illinois: -1
    Iowa: -1
    Louisiana: -1
    Massachusetts: -1
    Michigan: -1
    Minnesota: -1
    New Jersey: -1
    New York: -1
    Pennsylvania: -1
    Missouri: -1

  • proudgop

    who controls state leg is MN and MO?

    You just know MN Dems would love to write Bachman’s seat out

  • jeffreywturner

    The GOP has not had complete control of the re-districting process since reconstruction.

    Assuming we don’t talk ourselves into losing the gubenatorial election next year, we will have complete control this time.

    In addition to ensuring that the new seat we get is a center-right district, this will probably allow us to draw John Spratt out of his district, which should be electing a conservative already anyway. So, we would see a gain of 2 seats for the GOP, even though we only gain 1 from re-apportionment.

    The truth is, there should not be ANY white Democrats elected in the South if the lines are drawn fairly.

  • scarlos

    Primarily because the state is 30% Black, and that means the next Congressional district they get should be a majority-black one (if it’s possible to draw).

    We’ll probably pick up a seat and draw spratt into the new majority black one, as that’ll help make the 1st and 2nd safer.

  • scarlos

    Though in both cases the Governor is of the opposite party.

    Also, I don’t think the Democrats will draw Bachman out of her seat, mostly because they can flip the 2nd and 3rd instead by drawing in parts of St Paul and Minneapolis, which would make MN a 6-1 state. She’s also in the most Conservative area of the state, so it’s significantly easier to just make her seat safe and sweep all the others.

  • jeffreywturner

    Clyburn’s district can be drawn to be basically all black, which would consume almost half of all black voters in the state. The remaining population of the state would be roughly 80% white, and given voting partterns among whites here, that means the six remaining districts, evenly distributed would be roughly 60% – 70% Republican.

    Even looking at the districts now, Spratt’s is at least R+10, and there are PLENTY of conservatives to spare in the upstate districts without endangering them.

  • Mayhem

    The General Assembly has enormous power over redistricting. The General Assembly has a certain number of days to redraw the lines however they choose. The governor has veto power over any plan passed. If the deadline passes, which is usually the end of the regular session, a redistricting commission is assembled to draw up plans, which have to be approved by the legislature. The governor can call a special session to amend any conflicts.

    Make no mistake, if the GOP takes the Indiana House next year, it will be good for the GOP.

    I would add, the Indiana Secretary of State is currently pushing hard for redistricting reform that would take the politics (gerrymandering) out of redistricting. The GOP controlled Senate plans on passing a similar reform measure during next year’s session.

  • IJB

    My guess is the population drain from this state over the last 5-10 years has actually been *underestimated*.

    And that’s not even counting the illegals that have gone home because of the bad economy here.

  • scarlos

    1. Minority-Majority district protection is requred by the VRA as currently interpreted. This means that South Carolina, if possible, must have at least 2 Black-majority districts if it’s possible to draw them.

    2. Blacks in South Carolina (and honestly, everywhere in the South outside of huge urban cities), and generally very spread out. This makes it very difficult to draw heavily-black Districts (the most African-American district in the south is in the low 60s). There is no way that we could draw an 65% black district in South Carolina, let alone an 80% one.

    Combining those two though, means we’ll probably see Spratt’s district pick up some Black Voters to make it about 40% black, thus making the other districts safer.

  • jeffreywturner

    You are correct that SC is a VRA state, but there is no HARD and FAST rule that there must be exactly 2 majority black districts.

    If there was such a rule, there would already be 2 such districts in SC, as the bulk of our black folks live between Coulmbia and the coast, and it wouldn’t be that hard the draw the lines so as to make for 2 such districts.

    I have already spoken with a GOP member of the state assembly who is on the committee responsible for re-districting, and he assures me that they can accomplish what I am suggesting, as long as they don’t squander the gubenatorial race next year. As a matter of fact, he said they would have liked to have gotten rid of Spratt in the 2001 redrawing, but were limited by the fact that they had a Democrat governor whom they had to negotiate with on the final bill.

    Remember also, any challenge to the lines under the VRA, be it from the Justice Department or anyone else, will be reviewed by a SCOTUS that no longer contains Sandra Day O’Conner, who was usually the 5th liberal vote on racial issues. Kennedy usually sides with us on those issues.

  • proudgop

    I read an article on this recently ( wish I could find link) and they were saying Pelosi’s district actually has least number of voters in CA now ( the bay area is losing the population in the area)

  • JoeG

    I really can’t find better estimates on the web. I suspect the decline in population for all three left coast states will be surprising.

  • Brad Smith

    Redistricting in Ohio is done by a committee of 7. Four are appointed by the legislature (2 from each party) so effectively the commission is controlled by the party that wins two of the three following offices, each of which appoints one member:
    Governor
    State Auditor
    Secretary of State.

    The State Auditor is currently Mary Taylor, a Republican first elected in 2006 with 50.6% of the vote, and the only Republican (other than Supreme Court judges) currently holding statewide office. Despite three years in office, Taylor is unknown to most state voters – one recent poll showed 78% had no opinion of her. Her likely opponent is David Pepper, a Hamilton (Cincinnati) County Commissioner. Taylor would be slight favorite at this point.

    The Governor’s race will be a knock-down, drag out affair between incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland and former Congressman John Kasich. Recent polls from Quinnipiac, the University of Cincinnati, and Rasmussen all show a dead heat.

    The incumbent Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, is running for U.S. Senate, but she is not favored in the Democratic primary and may yet decide to seek re-election. If Brunner doesn’t run, the Democrats have State Representative Jennifer Garrison and Franklin County (that’s Columbus) Commissioner Marilyn Brown to choose from. Brown has long been a potent political name in Ohio. John Husted, former Speaker of the State House and now a State Senator, is the presumptive Republican nominee. This will also be a knock down, drag out affair, especially if it appears likely to decide control of the reapportionment commission. But Husted’s fund raising has gone well and he will be the early, if narrow, favorite unless Brunner runs for re-election.

    Those three races, and not the state legislative races, will decide the reapportionment board in Ohio. The Republicans, however, do have an excellent chance to retake control of the State House next year.

  • scarlos

    California might be stagnating, but it’s not collapsing in terms of population. It’s set to hold onto all of it’s congressional seats for this census.

    Oregon and Washington, however, are gaining population relative to the rest of the US. Oregon is set to receive it’s 6th seat either in this census or the next one, and Washington is probably going to get a 10th soon as well.

    Stop counting the illegals however, and the Democrats will lose about 6 seats in California.

  • Menlo

    It will be quite a sight to see that “legislature” actually do something of significance. And I thought the last two sessions were spectacles!

    I don’t know how they are going to do it.

  • Richard Mullins

    but of course I would like not to put in a district that keeps Beaumont in with Spring/Humble/Kingwood.

  • Third Street

    A state doesn’t have to actually decline in population in order to lose a seat; it simply must be outpaced in its growth by enough competing states.

    I think it’s very likely CA could end up losing a seat next year. Its outmigration rate over the last decade has been staggering.

  • Third Street
  • JoeG

    is that population is in decline over the last year.

    I fear for the demographics shift in the decline. The steepest decline is in families with children, a natural conservative vote.