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Marion Berry (D, AR-01) cuts and runs.

He decided to go for the easy way.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  January 24th, 2010 at 07:05 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Somebody call up Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook (ooh, Charlie had this one as Likely Democratic): they need to adjust their Democratic DOOMWatch lists again.

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry to retire

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.

Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.

Speculation was rampant after his comments a couple of days ago; note that politicians routinely deny that they’re going to retire until they actually do.  Presumably, there’s always the hope of a convenient asteroid strike or something as a game-changer.  It’s a shame, in its way: we were all going to really enjoy watching Berry lose that race. As the video at the link shows, the man was seriously off of his game.  When you can’t even remember your own farm subsidy shenanigans…

Moe Lane

PS: It looks more or less like Rick Crawford for AR-01, on the GOP side.  Check him out.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C
  • nvrepub

    don’t these “Blue Dog” Dems vote like Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS)??? If they’d essentially vote like Republicans, in red districts, they’d probably last. What is wrong with them – seriously?

  • proudgop

    Other names are being floated on GOP side
    State Sen. Johnny Key (R), state Rep. Davy Carter (R), businessman/’84 GOV nominee Woody Freeman (R) and businessman Chris Fowler (R) as possible candidates

    Finally, Arkanasas may have a Republican delegation in DC

    Here is hoping to a lot more retirements: Spratt SC, Skeleton MO, Peterson MN, Boswell IA to name few

  • proudgop

    I believe Berry voted for stimulus, Obamacare, and cap and trade if I am not mistaken

  • janis

    Watching them lose on election night was something I was really looking forward to! But I’ll take every retirement among them as the same thing and enjoy it accordingly.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    nt

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    I have to say, seeing that its a race in the south, I was kind of hoping it was the Nascar Truck Series driver.

    After looking at his site for a while though, I can’t say that I’m disappointed. Looks like he’ll be a strong candidate for us.

  • jfindl2

    we find somebody else. Last FEC report had him with 38k in the bank in an uncontested Republican field, I’m willing to give him time to get more money now that he isn’t facing a, relatively, popular incumbent with over 500k in the bank. He looks like a solid conservative but there should be lots of solid conservatives in a district McCain won with 59% of the vote.

  • WarEagle01

    nt

  • discerningconservative
  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …to confuse the two every time there’s a post on Berry.

    Alas, the tradition dies in November.

  • zbigreddogz

    The D’s will now have to pour lots more money into trying to keep the district…and likely still lose. So it’s a double wammy, it’s a domino effect. Puts more races into play.

  • zbigreddogz

    In fairness to Berry, especially seeming as how we won’t have him to kick around anymore, his district WAS very D leaning up until recently. Bush barely lost it in ’00 and barely won it in ’04. McCain won it overwhelmingly in ’08. This is unlike Taylor, who’s district has always been very R at a Presidential level.

  • zbigreddogz

    1. They’ll have to try to defend the seat and pour lots of money into it.

    2. It’ll certainly thin out the Senate primary, some of the Senate candidates will probably run for Congress instead now, which makes it a lot easier for…

    3. John Boozman to get into the Senate race, which basically puts the nails in Lincoln’s coffin.

    That’s gotta hurt.

  • jfindl2

    Only question is if any of the candidates in the race have homes in the 1st district?

  • IJB

    All of those are rumored as possible retirees.

    If all three retire – we’ll be cooking with gas!! :)

  • Jonah Shumate

    Woody Freeman is actually working on Rick’s campaign.

    The rest will fall in to place.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    Byrd ain’t going anywhere and Rockefeller will die there as well.

  • IJB

    As for Byrd… well to be blunt about it – he won’t be with us much longer.

  • proudgop

    we will probably see a lot movement of people dropping out

    I mean would Baker get into open Synder race?

  • hones

    If Boucher throws in the towel, it’ll be an absolute slaughter in Virginia.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    Alan Mollohan (D, WV-1) has filed to run for releection, as will Nick Rahall (D, WV-3). Our filing period ends at midnight, Saturday, January 30.

    Due to his ongoing scandals, Alan Mollohan has lost his fundraising capacity and is also nearly broke personally, having spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on legal fees. There is a crowded Republican primary in the 1st District. Former Delegate David McKinley, a Wheeling architect, businessman, former House of Delegates minority leader, and former state party chairman, is our strongest candidate against Mollohan. Here is an article about his candidacy.

    In my district, Nick Rahall is in far better shape, with no current scandals and about $1.4 million cash on hand (not to mention a large, inherited fortune). I am supporting Conrad Lucas for this seat. Rahall is vulnerable due to Obama’s War on Coal and the increasing Republican leanings of southern West Virginia. The 3rd Congressional District of West Virginia produces more coal than any other congressional district in the United States. Although Rahall voted against cap & trade, he did so only after sitting at the bargaining table with Nancy Pelosi, Ed Markey, Henry Waxman, and the other bicoastal tree huggers, rather than leading the opposition to the bill. His NO vote (and Mollohan’s) came only after Nancy Pelosi secured the votes she needed to pass the bill. On health care, Rahall has often and publicly stated that he would like to have a Canadian-style single-payer health care system–but is a formidable debater. I’ve met all 3 announced Republican candidates, but Conrad Lucas is the only one who can stand toe to toe with Nicky Joe. For those who would say Conrad Lucas is too young to run for Congress, he is a year older than Nick Rahall was when he was first elected to Congress in 1976. This is one of those races where a longtime incumbent without any current major scandals will be sewpt out by the coming political tsunami.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins
  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C
  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    and prop him up in a corner somewhere because he’s such a reliable vote.

    j/k

    Seriously, if it’s going to happen this is the time for it to happen. Maybe Byrd will be content to die at home where so much is named after him, surrounded by all he loves (memorials to himself)>

  • zbigreddogz

    And even if that’s not the case, if Boozman gets in, that opens up his district as well. At least SOME of the 9 (!!!) candidates for Senate have got to live in one of the THREE open districts.

    Of course, I think Tim Griffin deserves the nomination in Snyder’s seat. He’s the one who was gutsy enough to get in when everybody was saying Snyder was unbeatable, and he was the one who raised a bunch of money, scaring Snyder out of the race.

  • zbigreddogz

    I think Griffin deserves it, as I state above.

    But he could run for Lt. Governor if Halter runs for House or for Senate. He could also move to one of the other two districts that’ll be open in that scenario.

  • zbigreddogz

    I’m 100% sure we can get someone who will do a better job, someone with more connections and better fund raising skills.

  • proudgop

    plus, he has shown great fundraising

    Its shame all these people are running in this Senate Race though; I believe Arkansas has a lot state wide office races this year too and perhaps Republicans can get some and rebuild party

  • wbb1950

    Massachusetts is only the beginning:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=662R2awSwPQ

  • thurman

    That’s how I like to think of all these retirements ;-)

    Plus, even a Blue Puppy incumbent has some name recognition– far easier to let them retire and scramble to field someone new instead

  • mbauer

    Our federal legislative seats have been some of the most consistently Democratic seats in the country. When the South started voting in Republicans, Arkansas just never followed. Republicans haven’t been the majority House delegation from Arkansas since… probably post civil war reconciliation. In that same time span, I think we’ve had exactly 1 Republican Senator for one term.

    I’d almost bet even money right now that all 4 AR house seats are Red in 2011 (implying 3 of them flipping) and we take Lincoln’s Senate seat on top of it. I sure would like to slap that “regional party” crap back in the liberal’s face when they are only represented in the NE and within 50 miles of the pacific ocean.

  • jfindl2

    http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2010/01/since_win_in_massachusetts_gop.html

    and

    http://tolbertreport.com/2010/01/21/rep-boozman-considers-senate-race/

    I bet he will announce he will announce in a couple of days.

  • Third Street

    as he is on so many others. Never use a single, aberrant electoral cycle like ’08 as a baseline for future results, Charlie.

    Hard to believe that only one cycle ago Ark.’s entire delegation ran unopposed.

  • teamronmiller

    Princella Smith, currently a communications director for GOP congressman Joseph Cao (R-LA), has had designs on this seat in the past and with this news is seriously considering a run. There are two Facebook sites encouraging her to run. More on Princella here:

    http://www.politico.com/click/stories/0909/a_rising_gop_pr_star.html

  • gemimail

    We had Berry listed as impossible at -16.2% chance (not possible) of going Republican and now have it at 74.1%. Likewise we had Vic Snyder at 32.7% and now have it at 81.9%. Both of these guys had no Republican opposition in 2008. But then they both voted for Pelosi care and committed political suicide. Losing a long term Democrat incumbent is a huge game changer. See “Dynamics of Open Seats” at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=367&Itemid=1205 for an analysis. We have Mike Ross (AR-4) listed at 35.6% but he had the good sense to vote no on Pelosi care.

  • gemimail

    We have Mollohan listed at an 11.2% chance of losing to a Republican, but all politics is local so a scandal makes a big difference which mathematical models cannot handle. We have Rahall at -7.3% so he is not in our table of districts in play at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130. Again local conditions could quickly change that.

  • gemimail

    We have Connolly (VA-11) at a 52.5% chance of going Republican while Boucher (VA-9) is at 37.9%. We are being conservative because the Republican candidate for governor got 66% of the vote in this district last November. Our reason for caution is the Boucher had no opposition in 2008 and won with a 35.6% margin in 2006. See http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144 for a by state list of vulnerable Democrats.

  • The_Gadfly

    that they KNOW all the Lame Stream Media polls are slanted in their direction?

  • The_Gadfly

    in the same news photograph at the same time?

    He/they both strike me as the double dipper sort so I’m not putting anything past them/him.

    :)

    I mean, if it is an internet tradition we should get some mileage from this shouldn’t we?

  • Jack_Savage

    Writes ADG reporter Jane Fullerton:

    Berry recounted meetings with White House officials, reminiscent of some during the Clinton days, where he and others urged them not to force Blue Dogs ?off into that swamp? of supporting bills that would be unpopular with voters back home.

    ?I?ve been doing that with this White House, and they just don?t seem to give it any credibility at all,? Berry said. ?They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ?Well, the big difference here and in ?94 was you?ve got me.?

    We?re going to see how much difference that makes now.?

  • http://www.whoisdavidmeeks.com davidmeeks

    zbigreddogz,

    For full disclosure I am running against Tim in the 2nd CD.

    I jumped in July when everyone thought Snyder was unbeatable. Tim was recruited by the NRCC and jumped in about the time a private poll showed a “Strong” Republican challenger could beat Snyder. The NRCC has backed Tim from the very start and is hosting fundraisers in DC for him even though it was understood that the Party doesn’t get involved in primaries.
    (Yes, I did contact the NRCC and tell them I was running and had several conversations with them.)

    No doubt he did scare Snyder out of the race, and he has raised alot of money.

    However in the last poll that was taken that had Tim and I in the race Tim was down to Snyder by 1 and I was down by 3. I had less name recognition then Tim did.

    So the people of the 2nd District have a choice. Someone like me was a Washington Outsider. A common man who is a conservative or someone like Tim who is backed by the establishment and has all the political connections.

    I am not saying that being part of the establishment automatically makes you a bad person. However at this time can we take a chance on an establishment person when the establishment (from both parties) is largely responsible for the mess we are in now.

    Until then people need to realize there are other good conservatives in this primary. They also need to realize the NRCC is sticking their nose in trying to influence the outcome.

    David Meeks
    http://whoisdavidmeeks.com