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Meet fourteen worrying Democrats.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 2nd, 2010 at 06:23 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

List extrapolated from here from Reid Wilson:

Candidate District PVI Cook Rating
Mike Ross AR-04 R+7 Likely Dem
Allan Boyd FL-02 R+6 Likely Dem
Alan Grayson FL-08 R+2 Toss-Up
Suzanne Kosmas FL-24 R+4 Lean Dem
Sanford Bishop GA-02 D+1 Safe Dem
Bill Foster IL-14 R+1 Lean Dem
Frank Kratovil MD-01 R+13 Toss-Up
Ike Skelton MO-04 R+14 Lean Dem
Earl Pomeroy ND-AL R+10 Lean Dem
Dina Titus NV-03 D+2 Toss-Up
Mike McMahon NY-13 R+4 Lean Dem
Michael Arcuri NY-24 R+2 Lean Dem
Chris Carney PA-10 R+8 Lean Dem
Ciro Rodriguez TX-23 R+4 Likely Dem

…and the reason that you can tell that they’re worrying is because everyone on that list commissioned a poll in the last three months of 2009. Reid explains why this is interesting:

Some political professionals advising their clients have told them to hold off conducting polls until this 3-month period, when the health care debate calms down. Dems saw a demonstrable drop in support during the final half of the year, thanks to health care, and polling during such a turbulent time gives unnecessarily worrying, or inaccurate, results.

Which last may or may not be true; but it still begs the question why these fourteen are worrying. Aside from the fact that they’re all in competitive districts.  And that all but one of them is in a race rated as competitive.  And that more than half of them are already at serious risk of losing their jobs.  And that it’s turning out to be a bad year to be an incumbent Democrat.  Other than that, no worries, yes?

Yes, ‘worry’ is an interesting word, ‘isn’t it?  It originally meant ‘to strangle,’ you know.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    Now in the mean-time, if we can just help the GOP establishment understand that the people are going to guide them along, and to trust us.

    No more Dede Scuzzies or endorsements of Crist when Rubio’s campaign hasn’t gotten off the ground. Let us guide you, or pay the political price.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    Richard Hanna has decided he would run again in NY-24. In 2008, as an incumbent (Arcuri won the seat in ’06) Arcuri only beat Hanna 52-48. This is in New York State in a heavy Dem. year, with a still widely liked Barack Obama on the ticket.

    In 2010, a Republican year with Obama hurting Democrat incumbents more than helping, an unpopular Democrat governor in Albany, and the specter of Obamacare hanging over mid-term elections, Arcuri is not in any sort of position that I would envy. He has to justify the extreme left Pelosi agenda to the moderate-conservatives in economically struggling Rome and Utica.

    Richard Hanna is one of the few good points for the GOP in this state right about now. I hope he gets some financial support from the national party, because this seat should be an easy pickup opportunity.

  • AngryMatt

    h/t to Geraghty over at the Campaign Spot. Apparently the GOP is adopting a modified version of Dean’s 50-state strategy. Except instead of a heavy top-down organization, this strategy is emerging organically by candidates doing great fundraising work on their own. Oh the parallels to capitalism’s apparent chaos actually creating efficiency versus socialism’s apparent order creating inefficiency are strident…

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/02/expanded-playing-field-126-gop-house-candidates-have-100kplus.html

    For those who don’t want to bother with the link, here’s the skinny:

    …126 House Republican challengers ? that?s those running in open seats or against Democratic incumbents ? reported having at least $100,000 in their campaign accounts. Forty-two of those have at least $200,000, and 10 have at least $500,000.

    There?s some overlap in competitive primaries. But the numbers generally support the view voiced by Republicans that they expect to put between 80 and 90 Democratic-held seats in play.

  • AngryMatt

    Allen West, running against Ron Klein in the FL-22 race for the second cycle in a row, has $707,000+ and no debt. I think it’s time to put this one on the “races to watch” list.

  • Richard Mullins

    by rights he should since the Republican Party of Texas has a target on his back. I’ve been hope for a long time he would be gone(I had to start dealing with him in 1997, lose a primary in 2004 and when I get redistricted in 2006, I had to deal with him again. Thank goodness, I live in a Safe Republican seat[TX-02]). The last time I saw him in person he didn’t seem worried at all. In fact, he was quite giddy.

  • itrytobenice

    That guy is a tea party hero!!

  • zbigreddogz

    Quico Canseco has a lot of money and seems to be running a vigorous campaign.

    I know he lost the primary last cycle, but he seems dedicated and this is a year in which he could easily win. Hope he does.

  • texasgalt

    Blue dog Edwards barely squeeked by last time. Republican businessman Bill Flores is building support and has own money. Edwards is a long termer sitting in the most Republican district in the country.

    Flores takes on several other Rs in debate tonight, streaming live at kbtx.com
    at 7 central.

    http://www.billfloresforcongress.com/

  • zbigreddogz

    The only thing that saved him was the year. He ran against someone who nobody thought had a chance and outspent him badly and still only won 53-47 or so.

  • snopercod

    Announcement: The Asheville Tea Party has taken the fight for good government to the next level by forming the Asheville Tea PAC. In the next two months, we’ll be selecting from a number of small-government, constitution-loving candidates to run against Pelosi’s big-government (‘blue’) lap dog, Heath Shuler.

    The candidates debate will be held on March 5th at A-B Tech in Asheville and so far, Heath Shuler has declined to participate, just like he declined to meet with his constituents in a town hall meeting last August. He’s apparently decided to hide behind the bleachers rather than jump into the game.

    We hope Shuler will man up and attend the debate along with his challengers for the NC-11 seat.

  • Richard Mullins

    before I got redistricted to TX-23. That year it went down to August before the Democrats knew how that going to have a candidate(Runoff between Ciro D Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar). He was doing a slow start then but I’m sure he’s kicked in to high gear. I keep a link to his Campaign site on my main blog. There is nothing better than to see Ciro have to walk to work. Hehehehehehehehe. It’s just really funny.

  • texasgalt

    Wow, with Del Rio, Eagle Pass and North San Antonio in his district, a loss by
    Rodriguez would be another shocker. Madame Pelosi is sending him the cash.

  • Richard Mullins

    Courtesy of the Republican Party of Texas. I think I’m keeping my eye on TX-23 and TX-29. Both could flip with the right help. BTW, TX-23 had Bonilla for years and getting Republican votes in Uvalde is hard too. Most of North San Antonio and Helotes is easy to get GOP votes, provided we get good turn out. The sticking point is always the Democratic machine of South Bexar County. Get good Donk turnout there and it’s going to be hard. I know that the lay of the land very well since I lived there for years.

  • kevhead62

    She avoided meeting with anyone during the August recess since she knew the vast majority of her constitutents were against the House Obummacare bill, which she voted for. I believe there are a lot of angry voters in her district that will be sure to vote for the opposition candidate.

  • proudgop

    Yet, none of them released their polls like we recently saw with Republican challenging Moran in VA or Congressman Dent of PA did??

    Usually if your internals are so great you like to brag

  • gemimail

    Candidate District Chance Going Rep
    Mike Ross AR-04 50.2%
    Allan Boyd FL-02 38.6%
    Alan Grayson FL-08 73.5%
    Suzanne Kosmas FL-24 54.2%
    Sanford Bishop GA-02 None
    Bill Foster IL-14 50.7%
    Frank Kratovil MD-01 95.4%
    Ike Skelton MO-04 None
    Earl Pomeroy ND-AL 37.6%
    Dina Titus NV-03 67.6%
    Mike McMahon NY-13 17.1%
    Michael Arcuri NY-24 74.9%
    Chris Carney PA-10 60.7%
    Ciro Rodriguez TX-23 55.6%

    Nine of these have every reason to be very worried. But there are 51 others who should also be very worried. See http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130 for a complete list and how worried they should be.

  • JadedByPolitics

    because I have been calling it since the summer when the TEA Parties geared up and I saw the ANGER in the populace that there is going to be a 80+ seat flip. This idiot in charge will have NO CHOICE but the deal with Conservatives come January of next year….NO CHOICE!

  • theoneandonlyfinn

    If we follow the Brown example and what looks like a begrudging one out of Illinois-
    we try to get as conservative a candidate as possible in the primary (like Rubio).
    If not, we vote R, regardless.

    If this is the pattern we will likely get 40-50 seats in the House. Probably more if the environment remains THIS sour for the Democrats.

  • JadedByPolitics

    behind its name after a PRIMARY it gets elected! The Democrats have found that they CANNOT get done what they want because they have “different” types of D’s and WE must be just as accommodating with the R’s…..WE will have our Conservative Caucus and it will be LARGER then the RINO Caucus IMO so WE will take what WE can and leave the rest on the FLOOR!

    This is a WAR for the very LIFE of our country and WE cannot sit out ANYTHING EVER again and if one does so they have NO RIGHT to complain about the socialists/communists/marxists in our midst.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Kosmos – History, she lost with the release of the latest budget that cancels the Constellation program.

    Grayson – Anyone calling this a toss up is insane. He is insane, and despite the fact that Fantasyland is in his district, the central Florida voters don’t like being represented by someone who is actually insane. He will lose, and lose badly.

    Boyd – Allen has a chance of pulling this out, since he voted against cap & trade and healthcare. For him, it is all about how much of a wave he is swimming against. He hasn’t personally made mistakes, he is just saddled with a D next to his name. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him switch parties.

  • dadofsix

    The district is currently Dem +2 (Cooks ‘Likely Democrat’), but there is a lot of Tea Party action on the ground. I was at the Lapeer County (just north of MI-09) Tea Party meeting last night, and there was a lot of fired up people to work against Peters.

    Hasta la vista baby…

  • mikerazar

    Every time he opens his filthy mouth, thousands of independents join us.

    On the other hand, when he loses, Rachel Maddow will burst into tears. OK….I see my error. I hope he gets CRUSHED.

  • cmw

    Edwards own FEC statement lists polling too, and we know hat one of the questions was, because one of our supporters got a call. His last question was specifically directed at Rob Curnock, who he clearly is afraid of in 2010, and with good reason.

    Rob Curnock is the one who stood up when no one else would. Curnock came within a few points of losing when the party and big money donors (like Flores) decided to put their money elsewhere. Too bad they didn’t come on board in 2008, because it would have made a difference. None of the other 4 guys even lifted a finger to help — they didn’t donate, put up a sign, call people, anything.

    Curnock’s grassroots organization might just win the primary outright on March 2 in a 5-way field. That would actually be a blessing, because then we could stop the inside baseball and infighting and get on to the business at hand, beating Chet.

    http://www.WithRob.com/

  • Maggie_in_Indiana

    He’s actually gotten some bad press for not answering phones or emails. He joined with McCain then voted to increase the spending cap. Moron.

  • realskinny

    11-2-10 is the last chance to save the Republic.

  • gemimail

    We rate the chances of his doing so at 61.2% at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    Chances are 55.6% that he will lose. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    Chances are 77.8% that he will. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    Chances are only 26.8% that Republican will win. On the other hand chances that Kissell (NC-8) is toast are 58.4%. Price in NC-4 is also a long shot at 13.5% of his losing. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    We calculate chances of Republican winning at 38.8%. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    Florida 2 Allen Boyd 38.6%
    Florida 8 Alan Grayson 73.5%
    Florida 22 Ron Klein 61.2%
    Florida 24 Suzanne Kosmas 54.2%

    See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    Michigan 7 Mark Schauer 80.3%
    Michigan 9 Gary Peters 58.1%

    See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

  • gemimail

    See “The Sky is Really Falling” at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/ for an analysis of the Senate races.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    But I didn’t find their methodology. I assume it is some combination of approval, registration advantage and the healthcare vote.

    I disagree with their Kosmas number, it is too low. It isn’t factoring in the impact of the Constellation budget bomb that dropped this week. To be fair, Kosmas can pull this out if she is able to save Constellation from the axe. But that is her only chance.

    Klein I’m going to wait and judge when I start tracking the Florida house races for this cycle. This is West’s second time up against Klein, and he is better funded with wind at his back this time. However, Klein had $3M in the bank at the end of the last cycle. That is a huge money advantage.

    Boyd’s only problem is that he voted for Pelosi to be speaker. For him it will all come down to how much of a headwind he is up against. If the election were today, he would probably lose, but November is a long way away.

    I hope Grayson is renting his house in DC.

  • texasgalt

    OK, fine. But it will take more than the 100K he raised last time to beat the 9 term Edwards. There is a hill to climb for any candidate because Edwards often fares far better in the off year elections. This time SHOULD be different.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You go all thre way to three sig figs with them, so you must have some seroiusly accurate data to work with, no? Share it.

  • kyoufuu
  • zbigreddogz

    Yes, he lost the primary last time, but he seems to be a hard working guy and given the year he could do it I think.

  • martyinaz

    about the “turmoil” over Health care? What happens when thr Republicans relent and agree to a watered down version? Voters have a short memory, forgive and forget. And you can darn well bet that the DemocRATS will take credit for ANY Health care bill that the President signs. Watch out. This could back fire and we are left with the Left In Congress. The next “big stink”, will be Cap & Trade. The Republicans had better get ready to capitalize on that one. How many Republicans think that Al Gore’s fairy tales about AGW are true? They had better get educated on it and oppose it vigorously.

  • chabsentia

    The problem is that the people are gullible ,mosinofrmed and uninformed. Thr politicians dont resond because the majority of voters have been returning 90% of the incumbents for the last twenty years. They dont think that November will be any different and they are probably right. You have to be gullible to think that tax cuts are responsible for the economic mess instead of a Housing and Credit bubble.

  • proudgop

    Yet, our guys are

    Scott Tipton challenging Salazar in CO 3 released poll

    http://www.votetipton.com/_blog/In_the_News/post/Tipton_neck-and-neck_with_Salazar

    Salazar 46%
    Tipton 44%