OK, let’s walk through this. Mind you, I’ve already declared this bill dead anyway.
- Back in November of 2009, the House of Representatives passed a health care rationing bill, 220-215. For the purposes of this discussion, we will note four Congressman ‘yea’ votes: Abercrombie of Hawaii; Cao (R) of Louisiana; Murtha of Pennsylvania; and Wexler of Florida.
- In December of 2009, the Senate passes their version of the bill. It lacks the ‘Stupak Amendment,’ which is the only reason why Cao voted for the House version.
- In January of 2010, Wexler’s retirement becomes official. The effective vote is now 219-215.
- Also in January of 2010, Cao declares that he will not vote for the Senate version of the bill.
- In February of 2010, Murtha dies suddenly. The effective vote is now 218-215.
With me so far? Well, here are the two problems that the Democrats are now facing:
- If the final version of the bill does not include the Stupak Amendment, Cao will not vote for it (and neither will Stupak), thus making the final vote 217-216 against and the bill not passing. If the final version of the bill does include the Stupak Amendment, then every Democratic Senator is going to inundated with screaming progressives. How could they resolve this? By junking the Stupak amendment and making a vulnerable Democrat flip-flop on his previous vote. In a year when it’s a bad idea to be a Democratic incumbent anyway.
- The other problem is Abercrombie. As Philip Klein and Ed Morrissey both noted, he’s supposed to be out the door at the end of the month in order to run for Governor of Hawaii. He had also promised to stick around to get health care rationing passed. The conditions of the special election to replace him - not to mention, the problems in delaying his formal gubernatorial run - are sufficiently complicated that breaking his word on the latter will probably cause him less problems in the long term. So, after February 28th, that puts the regular vote down to 217-215 for, and 217-215 against if Stupak is not passed. In that case, the Democrats need to flip two vulnerable Democrats (if the vote’s a tie, they lose).
Shorter Moe Lane: eight years of karma just caught up with the Democratic party, and it’s charging interest.
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Caleb Howe
Erick Brockway
Dan McLaughlin
Hunter Baker
Ben Domenech
streetwise_IT
Dan Spencer
JadedByPolitics
Problem is the Senate
Swamp_Yankee Monday, February 8th at 10:59PM EST (link)We dont know what will come out of reconciliation. If the parliamentaian strikes a lot of the bill down and swiss cheese comes out, it may not be as offensive to Blue Dogs. But time is ticking on the reconcilation clock. These storms and next weeks vaction dont help. Reid needs to know if he has fifty by the time the budget is authorized.
http://www.twitter.com/swamp_yank
don't count on the Blue Puppies
thurman Monday, February 8th at 11:14PM EST (link)While I agree losing the few votes they have lost as above is great for our cause, there were several Blue Dogs who voted against the previous House bill but would have had no qualms about jumping on for the Senate bill, or any other iteration.
If it wasn’t for the Mass Miracle, I think they eventually would have passed some new bill by 225 or so in the House after some tweaking
I think Pelosi had several more votes in her pocket, that she let off the hook so as not to “walk the plank”, especially with the previous vote and caving to Stupak at the last minute
The math doesn’t hold water with all the variables now, too many moving pieces– the bigger issue of House Dems being jittery about voting for ANY bill now is the key to our salvation IMHO
Retirements
cusefan96 Monday, February 8th at 11:24PM EST (link)My question would be, do they even need to have a vulnerable incumbent (or 2) walk the plank? Did any of the retiring Dems vote no the first time?
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“Sweep the leg…finish him!”
The Pay-Dawgs
Repair_Man_Jack Tuesday, February 9th at 9:12AM EST (link)will fall right in line when Pelosi needs them. Blue-Dog Democrats are the most pathetic sham going. They insult my intelligence by claiming any independence from the current leadership of Congress.
“smug doesn’t balance a spreadsheet” -Moe lane
Is there a loan modification program to take care of the high interest?
antisocial Tuesday, February 9th at 12:04AM EST (link)Demoncrats need protection….
Obama Doctrine - Boot On The Throat
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You know what Harry Reid’s campaign slogan is? Vote for me or my wife gets beat up. - Rush Limbaugh
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What is to be done?
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No. You can’t - Moe Lane
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We shall fight in the air, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields, we shall fight in the hills — for 18 months. Then we start packing for home. - Charles Krauthammer
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The Emperor has no clothes!!!
YOU ARE COUNTING CLOUDS
inspectorudy Tuesday, February 9th at 3:06AM EST (link)If you think that you can count on the way squishy Dems voted the last time to vote that way again, you must be simple. They don’t have a member with a backbone among them. If it ever comes down to a vote in the House Nan will get her 218 or someone will come out of the closet ready or not.
Best line ever . . .
bigalsouth Tuesday, February 9th at 7:24AM EST (link)from one of the best Sci-Fi movies ever.
“It’s the only way to be sure.”
“Rahm Emanual)ing-A”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s1MspmfEwg
Educate, vent, discuss conservative issues at
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Great "down in the weeds" analysis, but...
archer52 Tuesday, February 9th at 7:33AM EST (link)Great analysis of how the House is going south in a hurry over the healthcare issue. But I’m wondering if it is even that close now. I think we can gather from the sudden retirements of a number of Democrats THEY feel their time in power is coming to an end. The Republicans did the same thing if I remember a couple of years ago. It is a matter of if you aren’t relevant, why hang around?
The democrats know they shot their load this year. They also know why it didn’t work- Obama. I think many fell under his spell just like a lot of citizens and only now realize they were hoodwinked. It is too late for them. Thank God our system of checks and balances managed to hold long enough for the bloom to come off. It’s not over, but it is getting to be over- which is why I think so many dems are giving up. They aren’t stupid, just wrong.
You forget
Neil Stevens Tuesday, February 9th at 7:36AM EST (link)Individual members generally would *like* to stay though, and if they think they have chances they’re not necessarily going to throw them away for the good of Nancy Pelosi.
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
Current Senate Projection: Republicans +7.
Current House Projection: Republicans +58
Give to the NRCC to fire Nancy Pelosi in November. Become a Precinct Committeeman to fire Michael Steele in December.
Love the Title and subtitle
Dan Perrin Tuesday, February 9th at 8:13AM EST (link)NICE
Cool "Aliens" reference...
Adrian Tuesday, February 9th at 8:48AM EST (link)…and it’s very cool that Obama and the Democrats are very likely to take it in the teeth on health reform.
I know some people are worried about Pelosi somehow magically turning into a leader and being able to pull the magical votes needed to pass the bill, but if she couldn’t get it done pre-41 I can’t see how she’s going to manage it now.