« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Carol Shea-Porter (D, NH) in trouble.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 9th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There’s a lot of good news in this WMUR Granite State poll (as of this moment, we’re looking at retaining Gregg’s seat, and picking up both House seats), but Shea-Porter’s numbers are the most immediately interesting. 35/40 approval/disapproval (the worst she’s ever had); and she loses to all four hypothetical candidates:

In a race between Shea Porter and her best known challenger, Frank Guinta, 43% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Guinta, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 22% are undecided.

In a matchup with Rich Ashooh, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Ashooh, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.

In a matchup with Bob Bestani, 36% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Bestani, 33% would vote for Shea Porter, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 30% are undecided.

And in a matchup with Sean Mahoney, 39% of likely 1st CD voters say they would vote for Mahoney, 32% would vote for Shea Porter, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 28% are undecided.

“Shea Porter does not break 40% against any of her challengers a sign that she faces an extremely difficult challenge to keep her seat,” said [Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center].


NOWHampshire.com has more, and by ‘more’ I mean ‘a collection of her more egregious video moments.’ Although that implies that she has video moments which are not egregious, which I suppose wouldn’t actually violate any laws of physics…

Moe Lane

PS: In case you haven’t noticed, I more-or-less look forward to skimming through Shea-Porter’s concession speech the day after Election Night, before I forget her existence utterly.

PPS: Frank Guinta & Bob Bestani have websites.  I’m more inclined to the former, but the final decision will be up to New Hampshire voters.

PPPS: I’ve been sent Rick Ashooh‘s website as well.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Tags: , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • clintonformccain

    The national media continues to overlook the Clinton/Obama subtext to many of these races. In Massachusetts, Scott Brown dominated among white middle class Reagan Democrats (including union families) who gave Clinton a double-digit win the state primary only to have the “Harvard dems” like Kennedy support Obama. Voters have not forgotten this. It’s swirling in the political soup and a continuing issue among many long-term Democratic rank n’ file organizers like county chairs and the like.

    In fall 2007, Clinton gave Shea-Porter the prime speaking slot at a massive Bill and Hill rally in downtown Portsmouth. In return, Shea-Porter endorsed Obama, after receiving the standard check from Obama’s PAC that accompanied endorsements.

    I’m sure it sounded good to Donna Brazille and David Axelrod when they proclaiimed that the new Democratic coalition no longer needed middle class white voters. As Shea-Porter may find out, however, winning an election in New Hampshire without middle-class white voters is pretty much impossible.

    Some of these young whippersnappers may not beleive it, but winning the votes of the “Reagan Democrats” has been and remains the all-important high-ground terrain in US politics.

    The Republican just needs to wake up every day and read the bullet points from Scott Brown’s campaign.

  • clintonformccain

    BTW, I doubt that Hillary or Bill Clinton will make a trip to NH to campaign for Carol Shea-Porter. Maybe she could call Obama to make a special trip. He’s magic on the campaign trail, I hear.

  • AceInTX
  • http://thecorruptworld.blogspot.com/ wayneinnh

    The UNH polls tend to lean way toward the Democrat though this in not really a surprise from a university polling outfit. The sample was 500 ADULTS, meaning whoever answered the phone got counted. Of that were 444 likely voters. If adults needed to be counted along with likely voters, the news must have been much worse for the Dems than they wanted to report.

  • gemimail

    We already had both House districts going Republican before this poll (as we did Scott Brown before the first poll). We have Shea-Porter with a 67.7% chance of losing and district 2 with a 62.5% chance of going Republican. Yet people think we are crazy to project picking up 60 seats in the House while losing two (DE and LA-2) for a next gain of 58 when other analysts are only predicting about 30 seats. See the complete list at: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130.

    We do not think any Republican Senate seat is in trouble and while only projecting a pick up of another 6 seats in the Senate due to Pataki, Thompson and Rossi not jumping in, we admit that another 6 on top of that are entirely possible. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=318&Itemid=1156. Republican candidates or projected candidates are ahead in 10 seats already which would give control of BOTH houses of Congress.

  • repealthe16tha

    Carol Shea-Porter needs to get booted from office for the following reason. As a consequence of her evident ignorance of the Constitution, she has wrongly surmised the following about the constitutionality of Obamacare, for example. Evidently oblivious to the constitutionally limited powers of the federal government, she wrongly reads the Constitution’s silence about public healthcare as a call for Congress to do the “unfinished” work of the Founders where public healthcare is concerned.

    http://www.freedomslighthouse.com/2009/08/democrat-congresswoman-justifies-obama.html

    But if Shea-Porter, and her boss Nancy, actually knew the Constitution that they have sworn to defend, she would change her tune about Obamacare because of the following.

    To begin with, given that the federal Constitution is silent about public healthcare, the 10th Amendment automatically reserves government power to regulate and lay taxes for healthcare to the states, not the Oval Office and Congress.

    Consider that Jefferson, while discussing the Founder’s division of federal and state government powers, had noted that the Founders had trusted the states, not the Oval Office and Congress, with the care of the people.

    “Our citizens have wisely formed themselves into one nation as to others and several States as among themselves. To the united nation belong our external and mutual relations; **to each State, severally, the care of our persons** (emphasis added), our property, our reputation and religious freedom.” –Thomas Jefferson: To Rhode Island Assembly, 1801. http://tinyurl.com/onx4j

    In fact, the USSC has already decided that Congress has no business sticking its big nose into the medical practice.

    ?Direct control of medical practice in the states is obviously beyond the power of Congress.? ?-Linder v. United States, 1925. http://supreme.justia.com/us/268/5/case.html

    It’s also important to note that Chief Justice Marshall had established the case precedent that Congress cannot base federal taxes on state power issues.

    “Congress is not empowered to tax for those purposes which are within the exclusive province of the States.” –Chief Justice Marshall, GIBBONS V. OGDEN, 1824. http://supreme.justia.com/us/22/1/case.html

    So not only is proposed Obamacare constitutionally unauthorized, but Congress doesn’t have the power to lay taxes to fund Obamacare either.

    If Congress actually respected the Constitution that it swears to defend, what Congress needs to do establish Obamacare is the following. Article V requires Congress to propose an amendment to the states which, if the states chose to ratify such an amendment, would expressly give Congress the power to administrate healthcare. But the states can always choose not to ratify such an amendment in which case Congress remains without power to address healthcare issues.

    The reason that misguided federal lawmakers like Shea-Porter think that the federal government has the power to establish healthcare is the following. By the early 1940s, constitutionally clueless FDR had managed to nominate 8 justices who tended to ignore state sovereignty. These justices sought to allow Congress to overstep its constitutional limits to help FDR establish his socialistic spending programs. Justices did so by not only perverting the Founder’s intentions for the general welfare and commerce clauses, but also ignored state sovereignty statutes like Article V and the 10th Amendment when they decided cases which tested the limits of Congress’s powers.

    And the reason that the corrupt, misguided Congress continues to get away with ignoring its constitutional limits is because citizens have evidently not been teaching the Constitution and its history to their children for many generations, IMO. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is a shameful example of this inexcusable situation, IMO.

    The bottom line is that voters have a big mess to clean up in DC in 2010.

  • morstar150

    Who’s up?

  • miketheknife

    The bottom line is that voters have a big mess to clean up in DC in 2010.