(Via Instapundit) I regret having to correct Jennifer Rubin - she is scary-smart when it comes to this stuff- on anything, but I must, here:
It’s a well-known pattern for many Democrats, Harry Reid included, from Red or Purple states: talk a conservative game back home, make speeches on fiscal sobriety, and roll over for liberal leadership when it comes to actual votes. Usually they get away with it when the public is not so engaged, the legislation is not so controversial, and Republicans blur the lines by defecting to vote with the bulk of Democrats. But here the public was vigilant, the legislation was noxious both in substance and in process, and Republicans held the line in their unanimous opposition to ObamaCare. So now these “centrists” are finding it hard to hide and explain why they threw in their lot with Reid-Pelosi-Obama. They may regret having “blown their cover” as faux fiscal conservatives for a bill that probably won’t pass and that is now the rallying point for an energized opposition.
The word ‘may’ has no business being in that paragraph. ‘Will’ is a much better choice. James Taranto has more. The bottom line for all of this is that we’re in the middle of yet another realignment - third in ten years, really. Realignment One was post 9/11, and represented the perfectly respectable and natural desire of the American people to have, when hit, people in office who would hit back. Realignment Two was 2006-2008, and represented a perfect storm of new campaign technologies meeting a mass centrist reaction to the previous alignment meeting a lack of enthusiasm among the rank-and-file of the current ruling party*. Realignment Three is this one, and it’s centrists learning the difference between Bad and Worse.
And so it goes, and so it goes: the next Realignment will probably involve the existing, old liberal Democratic leadership being purged-by-retirement and being replaced with a generation who did not grow up being taught (for example) that the conquest of South Vietnam was somehow a good thing**. When that starts happening, we’ll see how the political parties react. Probably by writing books about how X or Y is inevitable…
Moe Lane
*Note that the war was pretty much irrelevant in all of this, except for draining money and energy from antiwar progressives. In 2007 the Democrats were content to yell loudly and leave Bush in peace to win it for them; and in 2009 they pretty much went with the GOP plan because, well, we’re the go-to guys when it comes to hitting back.
**They will have instead not been taught about the conquest of South Vietnam at all, but that’s a worry for my kid’s generation. I’ll settle for watching the Vietnam War activist contingent all die of old age.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Caleb Howe
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streetwise_IT
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JadedByPolitics
I always wonder what would happen if..
neum432 Tuesday, February 9th at 7:23PM EST (link)in every congressional race, senate race..only pure conservatives ran against pure liberal/progressives. I’m talking pure black and white differences, no shades of grey. I just wonder what would happen. I feel that the conservative viewpoint would have a permanent majority. Of course this scenerio is fantasy, but fun to ponder the possibility.
“To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
Well, if you think about it
aesthete Wednesday, February 10th at 12:29AM EST (link)“Liberalism” or “progressivism” in the US is really just a bastardization of free-market principles to suit said progressives and their goals. In fact, even many of the leftists in Congress today would be considered to be broadly on the right in most countries. Many of our CongressCritters probably wouldn’t overly mind letting the Red flag fly, but their constituency won’t let them. The most that we get is a weak form of market socialism. With that in mind, a truly leftist candidate, in the global sense of the word, would probably get <30% of the vote, even in the most liberal of states (and the votes that they’d get would come from the fools with Che paraphernalia, more likely than not).
That beating would be fun to watch.
“Yet it is very certain that [the Commerce Clause] grew out of the abuse of the power by the importing States in taxing the nonimporting, and was intended as a negative and preventive provision against injustice among the States themselves, rather than as a power to be used for the positive purposes of the General Government, in which alone, however, the remedial power could be lodged.”
-James Madison
BTW, this only happened
aesthete Wednesday, February 10th at 12:48AM EST (link)because of the fall of the USSR. Subsequently, Clinton and the “new Democrats” were smart enough to recognize that parroting Soviet Union apologist lines verbatim was going nowhere fast with Americans, and gained a healthy “respect” for free-market principles (not). If you look, the left was much worse, and much bolder, from 1930-72 than it has been since the Reagan Revolution.
Fun thing to do to tweak a lefty: find quotes of his favorite lefty preaching to the choir about the manifold benefits of the USSR/Cuba/[insert random third-world hole here]. Trust me, they’re out there. When they insist that the Soviets/Lenin/Trotsky weren’t that bad, read them a copy of Gulag Archipelago, and ask them how the process (certified by Lenin and Trotsky) was better than Nazi camps. Then, ask them to find a quote from your favorite conservative pol in favor of anything close to that level of atrocity. (Another good, all-purpose books on the USSR, which should have put the final nail in Marxism’s philosophical coffin, is “The Black Book of Communism”.)
“Yet it is very certain that [the Commerce Clause] grew out of the abuse of the power by the importing States in taxing the nonimporting, and was intended as a negative and preventive provision against injustice among the States themselves, rather than as a power to be used for the positive purposes of the General Government, in which alone, however, the remedial power could be lodged.”
-James Madison
I think that old time Leftism is making a comeback
Richard Mullins Wednesday, February 10th at 12:52AM EST (link)With the hardest of hard leftist running the house,senate and WH, it hard not to notice.
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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
Well, they're trying
aesthete Wednesday, February 10th at 1:23AM EST (link)Even so, FDR would probably have considered an agenda with “only” HCR, Cap ‘n Trade, Card Check, and others to be pussyfooting it. Considering that an avowed, open, and diehard USSR supporter (not “democratic socialism” proponent, as even our most leftist will squeamishly call themselves in favor of) was a heartbeat away from the Presidency when FDR was near death, I’d say that leftists have a ways to go before they can get back to their “glory days”, at least rhetorically speaking.
“Yet it is very certain that [the Commerce Clause] grew out of the abuse of the power by the importing States in taxing the nonimporting, and was intended as a negative and preventive provision against injustice among the States themselves, rather than as a power to be used for the positive purposes of the General Government, in which alone, however, the remedial power could be lodged.”
-James Madison
But many convinced themselves to vote
youthgrunt Wednesday, February 10th at 8:50AM EST (link)for Obama by saying that he would govern from the center. I can’t tell you how many times I heard that from people clearly talking themselves into voting for him. One admitted his error to me about 3 months into his Presidency. I think many others have come to realize their error.
Don't forget the cap and trade votes in House
Rich Tandler Tuesday, February 9th at 7:26PM EST (link)Those also will come back to haunt so-called Blue Dogs in red states. It will be interesting to track the survival rate for House members from red and purple states who voted for both.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed with the tears of defeated politicians of BOTH parties and at ALL levels over the next few election cycles.
The Three T’s of reform–Term Limits, Tax Reform, and the Tenth Amendment
America is awake
tatertot62 Tuesday, February 9th at 7:29PM EST (link)It is pretty amazing how politics change when Americans are wide awake and paying attention. This next year may be the most accurate elections in years. Americans may finally get what they are voting for, not some myth! Let’s hope!
No. Independents are scared silly.
Section9 Tuesday, February 9th at 8:45PM EST (link)They believe Obama and the Democrats to be spending the nation into penury, and they do not trust the Democrats with power.
It’s that simple. Other than that, the problem with Indies is that they vote for who’s done what for them lately. They are about as useful as tits on a bull.
“History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it”-Winston Churchill
Independents, people that can flip-flop on issues without having to worry
Richard Mullins Tuesday, February 9th at 8:59PM EST (link)or better yet, the stick the finger in the wind electorate. Independent is so BS these days, those define themselves that way are BS. I’m more than happy of our voter registration here in Texas, the party neutral one. That cuts out some of those that want to align themselves with Independents. Independents always vacillate between Major parties in voting because they don’t want to stand for anything. Our electorate has become a bunch of cowards over the years. It’s time to stop that.
Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
There are permanent majorities
earlgrey Tuesday, February 9th at 9:07PM EST (link)If there is no difference between the two parties. That is why the repubs must return to conservatism and oppose the Obama agenda. No compromising of principles!
Communicate openly, freely and tell it like it is. Don’t dodge the uncomfortable subject. Be up front. Tell people what you are doing and why.
I disagree that '06-'08 represented a realignment...
Third Street Tuesday, February 9th at 11:50PM EST (link)…it’s just that the Democrats happened to have two cycles in a row in which they got really, really lucky. Bush was just that unpopular, the Dems’ recruiting strategy was just that effective, the Republicans had gotten just that pathetic, and the storm was just that perfect. In ‘06 the GOP failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship held by the other party, something I don’t think had ever befallen either of the major parties in history, even in their worst respective years. Meanwhile, when we look at these times in the history books, 2008 will look a lot like 1964. Big for the Democrats, but fleeting.
These were two extremely abnormal, fluke cycles. The Dem mini-streak is over, and as a result of that mini-streak there are a whoooole lot of Democrats sitting in seats they simply shouldn’t have, and soon won’t have. I think that fundamentally, the electorate is still where it was as a result of the 9/11 realignment, and for the first time since ‘04 we’re about to have something much closer to what a “normal” election year should look like as a result of that realignment. And what that should look like is a map that’s a big sea of red, producing a Congress that’s either GOP-controlled or razor-thin between the parties.
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” –Wilkins Micawber, “David Copperfield”
Yeah I wouldn't use realignment in this context
Neil Stevens Tuesday, February 9th at 11:53PM EST (link)Realignments *are* the dramatic, lasting changes:
1800. 1860. 1898. 1932. 1994.
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
Current Senate Projection: Republicans +7.
Current House Projection: Republicans +58
Give to the NRCC to fire Nancy Pelosi in November. Become a Precinct Committeeman to fire Michael Steele in December.
My measure of "will" vs "may"
youthgrunt Wednesday, February 10th at 8:57AM EST (link)I will measure if the electorate IS really paying attention is if my state throws Sen. Bayh out of office. He is the textbook talk conservative at home and then vote for Cap and Tax and Health Care “Reform” when away from his constituents.
We have several candidates running who should be acceptable replacements. Let’s see if we are paying attention.