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2010 SEN +4 to +8 R at this point…

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 15th, 2010 at 12:31 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

…and that +4 is me being nice and assuming that the Democrats will take two of the open R seats (they won’t) and keep two of Cook’s Democrat Tossup seats (they won’t do that, either). One of each sounds more likely, making the final total at least +6… and if we run the table at +8 it’s a 51/49 Senate.

By the way: that’s not the worst-case scenario. That’s a scenario that assumes that Senators Boxer, Feingold, Gillibrand, & Schumer don’t do anything stupid. Or Candidate Blumenthal.

Snickering based on this latest Cook Political Report survey.

Moe Lane

PS: Sen. Bayh really handled this retirement announcement… poorly. And what is Bayh going to do with that 13 million war chest, anyway?

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • theoneandonlyfinn

    2nd consecutive Rasmussen poll out of my state shows both Carly and Tommy within the margin of error against Babs, both keeping her below 46%.

    Chuckie is within 5.

    6 seem a lock at this point-
    ND,DE,IN,NV,AR,PA

    Illinois and Colorado are leaning rather favorably our way.

    California puts us at 50

  • proudgop

    I don’t see Bayh staying out of politics he simply sees writing on wall this cycle and I bet he runs when Lugar retires

    I see us winning all open seats at this point ( Illinois included))

    Reid, Lincoln, and Bennett are gone

    Gillibrand is so weak now if only NYGOP has someone to run. Boxer can be beat. Feingold too.

  • proudgop

    Arlen is better for us to beat in Nov.

  • eastbaylarry

    Every race needs to be watched and encouraged to go to the most conservative candidate. And if the most conservative candidate calls themselves democrat, that may still be better than a progressive republican.

    Oh, and let’s all agree that a vote for a third party is a vote for the dems.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    I also am predicting 8 seats at this point. I actually think New York is more likely than California…but who knows. Getting to 50, I still think, will take a small miracle…but we did win in Mass, didn’t we?

    http://neoavatara.com/blog/?page_id=9559

  • gumbyandpokey

    Then the Senate is in play. Being in Wisconsin, I can tell you that Tommy’s act is starting to grate on even many Republicans, so he has to make a decision one way or the other.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    There is no scenario where their election environment improves, and plenty where it gets worse. Look at the factors:

    Unemployment: Even with fudging the numbers, there won’t be a surge in employment before November, even the administration admits it now.

    Foreign Policy: We will still be fully engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran will be closer to a nuke, and the KSM debacle will be on full display.

    Economy: The commercial real-estate crisis is scheduled to explode this summer. All those recently hire census workers will be unemployed again.

    Legislative: Obama/Reid/Pelosi seem hell bent on continuing their Quixotic pursuit of HCR and C&T, both of which are political losers.

    So +6 in the Senate and +30 in the House is currently looking like the floor of GOP gains in the fall, and can only go up from here. There are no external factors that will improve things in the next 6 months. The best they can hope for is to keep the current environment.

  • peter_s

    Moe,

    And that’s not all. In 2012 I think the Dems are defending something like 23 seats to c. 8 for the Republicans.

    January 20, 2013: conservative Senate representing and actually reflecting this center-right nation for the first time since (never?), conservative House (same), and first woman President, also an authentic conservative.

    Not too bad for a bunch of rabble, eh?

    Peter

  • E Pluribus Unum

    before we get the singular satisfaction of SHOVING them off.

    it taints the palate, just a bit.

  • Richard Mullins

    need to stay in so we can have the fun of beating them. There is no fun in having them go overboard. I really hope they would all stay in(hint Senator Lincoln, stay so we can beat you).

  • Castor

    As Bayh drops out giving us another seat, other factors will enter into the election equation:
    1.An Israeli attack on Iran which appears nmore and more inevitable.
    2.Three Democrat senators are 85-86 years old and Byrd is older yet and more infirm than the octogenarians..
    3.The crisis of the Euro deepens as Portugal, Spain and Ireland add to the EU’s woes brought on by Greece.
    The Republican pick-up could be between 9 and 11 !

  • BlueStateSaint

    That the over/under is 11, myself. Right now. And I tend towards the “over.” Let’s remember something about “conservative Democrats”–they still contribute to the Dem caucus in the Senate; therefore, the legislative priorities are set by the Dems and not the Republicans. So, for that reason, I’d want a liberal Republican over a conservative Democrat. Go against the liberal Republican in the primary, but in the general, go with the liberal Republican if a liberal Republican is the Republican nominee. That way, the Republicans get the majority (theoretically).

  • Gandalf

    Just Wow. I couldn’t believe when I saw the news saying Bayh is retiring. I hadn’t really considered Indiana very high on our list of possible take-over seats in my last update

    http://www.redstate.com/gandalf/2010/02/09/senate-2010-analysis-early-february/

    Update to follow tomorrow…

  • earlgrey

    I hear that 2/3 of the stimulus has not been released yet. Glenn Beck was saying that they will release a lot of this money in the close races/districts before the mid terms. FDR did this in 1934.

    Of course these are different times and I am not sure how much of an impact this will have given the brazen behavior of the dems and the scrutiny provided by the new media.

  • crosley

    With a net gain of 8 being very likely. I really hope either Pataki or Zuckerman runs against Gillibrand in NY, and Thompson run against Feingold, then we’re looking at flipping the Senate.

    I do however agree with Erick’s assessment that the best thing that could happen to Obama’s reelection chances would be a Republican controlled Congress.

    The best case scenario for Republican’s to go against Obama in 2012 would be for Democrats to narrowly control control Congress, but be unable to actually pass anything of substance.

    In terms of public policy, absolutely nothing “conservative” is going to be passed with a narrowly controlled Republican Congress and this President. Obama will not pivot to the center-right like Clinton did, and Republicans won’t have those margins to get that far anyway. It would be better politically to not have control, but just derail Obama’s agenda. I also see a very flat recovery economically by 2012, and it would be beneficial for Democrats to get all the blame, and then blow them out of power in another wave in 2012 where we can actually get something done.

  • SIConservative

    The Tea Party movement has registered a party for this November and will have a candidate on the ballot. If their man, Jon Ashjian, takes some of the Republican vote, especially if we fail to get a stronger candidate, Reid might be able to win with well under 50%.

  • Vegas_Rick

    While we need to be cognisant of this petty challenge (lest it grow), it is petty. We have two strong candidates in Lowden and Tarkanian. They both have two things that Ashjian lacks, name recognition and MONEY. The Tea Party in Nevada is not well organized nor well financed. I can’t even find an organized protest of Obama’s fund raiser for Dingy Harry later this month. Conservatives control the precincts here. This guy will be road kill after the primaries. Yes, I know he’s third party. But other than the libs who read the Sun, who has ever heard of him?

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com Conservative Phantom

    …for a presidential bid. President Toonces looks more vulnerable in the Democrat primary with each passing day. HRC, Bayh and a handful of others may be seriously thinking about putting the screws to Hopey the Clown for the nomination. You never know.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Answer: none

    Government air dropping money doesn’t grow business, private sector investment does. No one is going to be investing between now and November, because know one knows what stupid thing the Government is going to do next in the name of regulation.

    The truth is that those 2/3rd of the funds will in the end be funneled to continued unemployment benefits. While that keeps people from starving, it doesn’t give them the incentive to vote for you. Oh, and a bunch of union and government employees will keep their jobs, but they were already going to vote Dem.

  • ColoradoRed

    …about the new poll in Washington (rated “Solid Democrat” by Cook Political Report) that shows Dino Rossi could beat 3-term incumbent Senator Murray.

    If we win all of the races rated “Toss Up” or better, we only need any two of Connecticut, California, New York (Gilibrand), Wisconsin, and Washington. In New York we just need Pataki or Giuliani to step up and we’re set. As I said, in Washington it’s about getting the right candidate as well. I agree with the assessment of another previous commenter who noted that this year it’s about 1) taking the majority NOMINALLY so that we can control the agenda, and 2) creating a large buffer against Obama’s agenda by making room for 5-10 squishy Republicans to cross over while still maintaining a successful filibuster. In 2012, when many more Democrat seats are up, and we can take back the White House, that’s when we can really go for the throat. A huge majority at the moment wouldn’t do us any good because every decent piece of legislation would get vetoed anyway.

  • blaze422

    fight the next Republican president? If we have parity in the house and senate, and Paul Ryan ( my choice) as president, I wonder how much resistance to a popular (populist) conservative agenda will be exhibited by the Dems.
    FWIW, 2010 is in the books…bloodbath. 2012 will give the Dems on last chance to read the writing on the wall. My feeling is that if we have a resistant Dem minority to a Republican (constitutionalist/populist) president we could see 2014 get us to super-majorities.

  • paint_it_red

    So after Brown’s suprise coup in MA, we went to 41. CO, AR, NV, NE, PA, and DE look like very good bets to put us at 47. IN and IL lookly very winnable. CA, NY, WA, and WI are not beyond the realm of possibility. I’ve seen some real good polls lately for DeVore, Rossi, Thompson, and Pataki. If we can land even some of them, we could get to 50. And then maybe get Lieberman to switch…

  • IJB
  • vamoose

    how will that change the relative numbers on the committees? Right now Dems have something like 13-10 majorities on committees. If that changes to 12-11, life might get more difficult for Dems even if they retain the control of the senate.

  • Mary Beth

    “I?ve just heard from an impeccable source that Barbara Mikulski, the Democratic Senator who is up for reelection this November, will choose to retire. Mrs. Mikulski is expected to make her formal announcement in the next few days.

    Mrs. Mikulski seriously fractured her right ankle last fall just prior to Edward M. Kennedy?s death. Due to the severity of the fracture, she has had to open reduction surgery, that included the insertion of pins, as well as the use of special surgical boots, during recovery. She had tried to arrive in time for Mr. Kennedy?s funeral but was turned away.”

    http://hotair.com/headlines/?p=71867

  • wrenhal

    but I have a warning for all:
    I think they are trying to play a game…. they are giving back room deals to all these dropouts so they can then put up somebody that is supposedly more “in the center” or to the right to try and counteract all the negative Obama press. Also, this way they can’t be held accountable to the public for any of their votes from this day forward. We should make sure to push this to the front so that ALL will be warned of the bait and switch they are about to try and pull on the American electorate.

  • bobojake

    After having gregorie the democrat steal 2 governor elections he may need some assurances from higher ups. Iit was gregories’ crooked recount team that went to work for al frankin.

  • ashland_avenue

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35414827/ns/politics-more_politics/

    Lautenberg is not critically ill, but is 86 and not well.