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Barbara Mikulski and the Democratic margin of error.

As in, there isn't one.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 16th, 2010 at 08:33 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Jim Geraghty dumped a bit of cold water on this not-yet-officially-refuted rumor that Senator Mikulski is planning to retire:

…the least she’s ever gotten in a Senate race is 60 percent. Evan Bayh faced a tough reelection bid, but Mikulski’s biggest-name opponent so far, is Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Eric Wargot. She’s raised $3 million, he’s raised $176,526. Even in a terrible year for Democrats, she should be safe.

If Mikulski is contemplating retirement, it’s not because she fears she’ll lose in 2010.

…which is true enough: if Mikulski is retiring (we should probably get that confirmed today), it won’t be because of the current political environment.

But from now on, reasons for Democratic drop-outs no longer matter.  Particularly in the Senate.

As of this moment, the conventional wisdom has conceded that the GOP is going to have a good run in November. The blue-sky goal is slowly moving from ‘retaking the House’ to ‘getting fifty or more seats;’ and people are beginning to suggest a hint about the possibility of maybe being in a position to flip the Senate.  As it stands, +8R seats is… justifiable.  It will require the GOP to keep all of its in-play Senate seats (which is actually looking likely, at this point) and the Democrats to lose all of theirs (less likely, but not actually impossible).  To hit the magic +10R number, the GOP would have to knock off two out of three remaining races: Gillibrand in NY, Boxer in CA, and the open seat in CT. Getting one of those three will be an accomplishment; getting two would be tricky.

But that obscures the real problem for the Democrats, which is that they cannot have any more bad luck if they want to be assured of keeping their Senate majority.  If Mikulski retires, of course the GOP will press hard for her Senate seat.  The Democrats will have defend it, which means resources that they’d rather spend elsewhere.  Senator Frank Lautenberg is in the hospital right now after a fall.  I hope he’s fine, I wish him a speedy recovery, and I expect that he’ll be back to work next week; but if he had broken his neck instead the Democrats would be facing the fact that the manner of his replacement would be under the control of a Republican governor.  Senator Chuck Schumer of NY is one scandal away from having his poll numbers go south in a tearing hurry.  And so on, and so on.

My point here is that the ‘why’ of any particular political setback for the Democrats is now no longer as important as the setback itself.  We are almost at the point where everything has to go right for them, from now until November, for them to preserve their Senate majority.  Meanwhile, the GOP is already poised to gain enough seats to allow a margin on cloture votes; and while we may want +11R, if we have to we’ll soldier through and somehow make do with +6R.  Put another way: we’re already hit our primary objective.  Now we’re just seeing how far we can make the rubble bounce.

Odd how things can change in a year, yes?

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • proudgop

    That would be tough state for us to win. Steele can’t run now. I am not sure Elrich could win on federal level there

    Honestly, only Republican ( he is RINO) that could win is Collin Powell.

  • JadedByPolitics

    in Maryland tend to not go vote because they feel their vote is useless, this go round I have been looking at a LOT of MD blogs and Republicans are PUMPED UP along with the Maryland TEA Party Movement and while I am not sure she would lose she certainly would have a much BIGGER fight on her hands then in previous elections.

    Never say NEVER….lol :)

  • cwilson

    He turned in his (R) badge in September 2008. He’s not even a RINO anymore. He could run for the seat, but only as an (I) — but he’d be a better fit as a (D).

  • teresakoch

    Reports say that she had spoken with her physician about the possibility of not returning to Congress earlier. It’s taking much longer for her ankle to heal than anyone thought, and she is said to be in considerable pain, having to use a wheelchair at times.

  • streiff

    but his is the first intimation I’ve seen of anyone thinking that Mikulski would be dropping out for anything but health/injuries complicated by age. If she runs she’s a shoo-in.

    Unfortunately, there is no one of stature in the MD GOP to enter this race (some might say no one of stature. Period.). Bob Ehrlich is going to take another run at Martin O’Malley.

  • Jon E. Schultz II

    Dunno if Wisconsin is in your +8 calculation, but if Tommy Thompson jumps in the race, it looks like he’ll knock off Feingold.

    That’s *if* he ever decides to jump in…I think he likes all the intention he’s getting at the moment, deciding between the governor’s race (bad idea), the senate race (good idea), or staying in the private sector ($$$ idea).

    - Jon

  • SIConservative

    Thompson needs to either get into one race or the other now or make an announcement that he’ll never again seek elective office. This has gotten well beyond tiresome with talk of him running statewide every two years, being the prohibitive, primary-clearing favorite, and then announcing at the eleventh hour that he’s not going to run. I don’t know if anyone in Wisconsin knows better, but from the cheap seats it looks like he’s just on a massive ego trip.

  • gumbyandpokey

    I’m from WI, and I can assure you that Thompson’s act has become tiresome. Even Conservative talk radio hosts here have been saying the guy has to make up his mind and quit this dog-and-pony show that goes on whenever a major seat becomes available. BTW, nobody thinks he’s really going to run. Tommy just likes to have his name floated every few years. Another bizarre thing here is why Mark Neumann is wasting his time in the Gov’s race, when Scott Walker has all the money, energy, and volunteers locked up. He’d make a very good candidate vs Feingold, but insists on a suicide mission in the GOP primary for Governor.

  • tankertodd

    Table stakes for new Republicans should be private sector experience. We can’t afford to go in a direction with government that doesn’t include a massive rethinking of government programs. I can’t see Powell or any lifelong public employee having the slash-and-burn mentality to accomplish that.

    Private enterprise knows all about slash and burn. When you don’t have the ability to print your own money, you have to make the right cuts. Let those experienced people do it. Not lawyers or government people.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    I am sick and tired of Republican heavy weights debating on their future. It is time to take a stand. If you want to move forward, run. If not, move out of the way so a newcomer can try.

    http://neoavatara.com/blog/?p=9733

  • bk
  • philbo

    Obama is setting off on a “Save the Senate” campaign tour.

    http://washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/16/sagging-senators-seek-obama-bump/?feat=home_headlines

    We know what his magic did for the Chicago Olympics, Copenhagen AGW agreement, Martha Coakley, Colts in the Super Bowl, the elections in VI and MD, and other times when the Nobel Prize Winner in Chief stepped in.

  • 10ksnooker

    That anyone but a RINO could win Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts — Oops, never say never.

    Remember even for Democrats, it’s their economy too. Some Democrats may be late to wake up to that fact, but eventually they do.

  • archer52

    All kidding aside. I’m getting the feeling like when you are standing next to your top bomb disposal guy as he works on an IED and you hear him say, “Uh oh….” My advice is if you see him running, you’d better keep up if not pass him by.

    What do they see coming? Beck claims at least another recession worse than this one or at worst some kind of collapse. Others, like my Mensa bright buddy, are struggling to get a handle on it, but I can tell by talking to him, he’s not happy or comfortable. There are certain economic facts that no economist or politician can manipulate, although they have tried- leading us to this point. Some of these natural laws (many we violated) will always win out in the end. It is like gravity. Yes, you can fly, in a plane, for a while, but sooner or later you’ll run out of gas and plummet to earth. Gravity will always win.

    If it were only our nation, we’d could pull out relatively quickly. If it were a European issue, we’d could insulate ourselves. But in this case everyone is in the freezing water and nobody is in the boat offering a hand up. Who throws the rope we can catch?

    All of this is going to end badly, within a year or so. The unions will not be able to negotiate endless benefits for employees. There is no money left. The government will not be able to steal taxes from us with Cap and Trade because it won’t pass, now that the global warming scam has been exposed (thanks to the Russians). The government can’t steal cash from the medical industry either. States will freeze or eliminate jobs, growing the roles of the unemployed. How does the federal government pay for this? Revenues are down, future revenues will also be down. Borrowing will end when no one can afford to lend.

    It was our fault. We believed the politician’s promise that all things can be free. That promise kept the majority of us voting in the same people over and over. All of us refused to look behind the curtain. Now we pay.

  • AngryMatt

    Personally, I think CT is a lost cause unless Blumenthal does something horribly stupid. He’s very well liked, has sky high approval numbers and, while he’s never won a hotly contested race, our candidates are not in the Scott Brown mold of retail politics. Simmons and McMahon are not going to do what it takes to beat Blumenthal which is to basically repeat Brown’s campaign in every aspect and catch a few breaks as well.

    Now on the other hand, I think it’s far more likely we can win Murray’s seat than the CT-Open race. I know open races are generally considered tossups, but in this environment, I think incumbency is a drag regardless of party. I think Murray would be very vulnerable to a Rossi run (as evidenced by his lead in a Rasmussen poll) but even a strong second tier candidate could win that race. Boxer is vulnerable as we know, but I don’t see a strong NY candidate coming out to take on Gillibrand. And unless there is a huge surge by one of the folks already in the race or Thompson joins in, Feingold isn’t going anywhere in WI.

    So there it is. I think the path to 51 is win all the tossups and pick off Boxer and Murray. It’s a steep uphill climb, but it is doable, especially if voters’ moods towards the Dems continues to darken.

  • renny

    maybe the rats fleeing the ship are seeing the dollar collapsing.

    70 years of debt and deficits have to end up somewhere. I have been hoping not in my lifetime.

  • nessa
  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    This sealed it and is worth watching again:

    Thank you.
    ColdWarrior
    No More Scozzafavas!
    Become a Republican precinct committeeman. NOW!

  • redtillimdead

    He has ZERO chance in the Republican primary against someone as well liked as Scott Walker. Thompson needs to sit this one out. Anyone who is a Republican that loudly supports ObamaCare has no place in a senate race next year.

  • redtillimdead

    You’d have sky high approvals too if you had never run a campaign in 20 years. Trust me. In those 20 years, he HAD to make a bad call on a controversial case that Simmons and especially McMahon and her $50 million will point out.