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Baron Hill (D, IN-09) does not play well with others.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  February 25th, 2010 at 09:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Which most people reading this already knew: but it’s now the Democrats’ turn to learn that. I don’t think that they’ll enjoy the lesson:

Within hours of Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement last week, establishment Democrats in Indiana and Washington were signaling that Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) was their preferred favorite to succeed him. And by Friday, the last day to file for office, Ellsworth had announced his intention to run for the Senate seat.

It had all the makings of a neatly wrapped package, with just one exception: Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) hadn’t signed off on the succession plan.

Now Hill is suggesting he’s seriously weighing a campaign — and other candidates are making calls to committee members to feel out support — and the process of choosing a Democratic Senate nominee could prove to be a lot messier than originally anticipated.

I was pleased to hear that Senator Evan Bayh had decided to not run for re-election; it meant that we’d pick up a Senate seat. I was also pleased to hear that Rep. Brad Ellsworth had decided to go for the seat; it meant that we’d pick up a Senate and a House seat. But if Baron Hill ends up being the nominee, then Bayh’s sudden retirement will mean that we will pick up a Senate and two House seats: the Democrats can’t make their Senate pick until after the primary and they’ve already picked the sacrificial victim for IN-08.  And the progressive base doesn’t really like Ellsworth, anyway (NSFW language).

Some day I hope to hear just what the Obama administration specifically did to Evan Bayh, to fuel this revenge.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • proudgop

    I maintain Hill is a lot easier to defeat then Ellsworth. I would not minimize how easy it will be to defeat Ellsworth he has won to big races in that Bloody 8th now

    I think we will pick up 9th even if Hill doesn’t run but if he does its slam dunk as the other Dems on the ballot are really low quality.

  • izoneguy

    And hopefully – Bayh won’t be the last one to stab Obama in the back…..

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    He seems to know he’s lost his district back to Sodrel. Now he’s afraid they just fired him as a shill by attemptign to jimmie Elseworth into the Senate bid. Good times. Blue-on-blue fatricide is a pleasure to behold.

  • IJB

    But your point about Ellsworth’s district and Bayh’s seat is well taken.

    However, I’d feel better about IN-08 if we had better candidates running – there were 8 GOP candidates in that race (right off the bat – that’s too many in a primary), but they mostly seemed lower-tier as I don’t think the IN GOP really thought about seriously taking on Ellsworth this year after the last 2 debacles. Now Bayh’s surprise move has left the IN GOP holding the bag in IN-08, without a really high profile candidate. So I worry that it’ll end up being a missed opportunity (novice candidates can flame out on you unexpectedly – see PA-12 in 2008…) even without Ellsworth running.

    But IN-09 was going to us with, or without, Hill running. :)

  • proudgop

    http://www.bucshonforcongress.com/

    He doesn’t seem like low quality to me. I think Ellsworth would of survived the race but I think Buchson can win in November now

  • IJB

    …But I am generally leery of novice candidates in districts like IN-08. It’s not just winning it too – it’s *holding it* from here on in.

  • proudgop

    While votes usually for Republican for President it still like 9th has a majority of Dems at local and stat rep and state senate level

    it limits the number of elected republicans who can run

    I suspect both Ellsworth and Hill are looking more at Open Gov and possibly Open US Senate Seat ( lugar retires) and this might be stepping stone

  • LibertarianHawk

    …is that both Ellsworth (as the Dem candidate for Senate) and Trent Van Haaften (as the Dem candidate for the IN-08 House seat) will be stronger candidates than you seem to suggest.

    I’m not saying that one or the other will win their races, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either or both did…even in this climate.

    In the case of the Senate race, Coats is a weak establishment favorite, Hostettler would come across as a bit wacky, and Stutzman still seems like a longshot to capture the nomination.

    I have a hard time explaining Brad Ellsworth’s political appeal beyond aesthetics. He’s something of a dullard — and the next time he takes a firm stand on something buoyed by a cogent argument will be the first.

    But I’ve been pretty fascinated by the political musical chairs going on around here after the Bayh announcement. It’s actually even better than just a fight between Ellsworth and Hill for the Senate nomination.

    The other guy tangentially affected by all this is Democratic Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel. Weinzapfel has had his eyes on the 2012 gubernatorial race. And so has Baron Hill.

    Weinzapfel was first asked about his interest in the Senate race. He passed. Then he was asked about the IN-08 race (which he ran unsuccessfully for in 1996). He passed.

    He wants to be governor. But now there seems a distinct possibility that Evan Bayh will run for governor again in 2012. And, if he does, then he should at least have no problem sealing up the Democratic nomination.

    And that would obviously leave Weinzapfel out in the cold — or, at best, as Bayh’s runningmate.

    Both Ellsworth and Weinzapfel have been seen by state and national Democrats as future stars. And it seems quite possible that the recent turn of events, combined with the awful political climate for Democrats, could see both of them suffer major political setbacks.

  • LibertarianHawk

    I know that Hill’s been looking at the 2012 gubernatorial race. He’s admitted as much.

    But I don’t think Ellsworth has any designs on that particular office himself. It’s Jonathan Weinzapfel who does.

    And you’d think that, if either Ellsworth or Hill were angling for Lugar’s seat when it opens up, that they’d both want to punt in this cycle…which is shaping up to be a tough one for candidates of the donkey persuasion.

    I can’t imagine that losing a Senate race in 2010 would do much to burnish their cred for a future Senate race.

  • LibertarianHawk

    If you had me place a bet right this minute on who the next 8th District Congressman from Indiana will be, I’d place it on Trent Van Haaften….unless the underlying wave is so strong in the “R” direction that he just can’t overcome it.

    My suspicion is that it will simply be harder to be an incumbent in this race than to be a Democrat. And Van Haaften won’t be an incumbent.

    Plus, Buschon really doesn’t seem have to been doing much with his candidacy thus far. I know it’s early — but he’s starting from complete scratch politically. Van Haaften, as a sitting state rep, is not.

  • LibertarianHawk

    But I ultimately think that Ellsworth will end up with the Democrats’ Senate nod over Hill.

    Ellsworth’s widely seen by Dems as a rising star — Hill, not so much. At first, I thought they might prefer Hill over Ellsworth, if for no other reason than to avoid a tough primary in the governor’s race in 2012 between Hill and Weinzapfel. But it didn’t take party leaders long to tell the press that they were leaning toward Ellsworth.

    The way the early polling has looked, you’d think that Ellsworth and Hill would both be hoping that the other guy gets it.

    But, when the campaign gets into full gear, and if Ellsworth’s the Democratic candidate, I suspect he’ll be pretty formidable. He seemed well on his way to holding onto his seat in the “Bloody 8th”, despite all the supposed headwinds.

    I don’t know why he wouldn’t be similarly strong statewide.

  • bsblogger

    Sodrel is not the way to go. It will be a tough primary but Todd Young is the guy to support. He’s not flashy but he’s young, accomplished, and articulate. His town halls in my district were great where he said all the right things, allowed the people to get what’s on their minds off their chest and has the background to back it up. Last summer, Baron Hill refused to have a town hall for weeks until Mr. Young scheduled his, then finally scheduled one. On the same night. In Bloomington! The Baron refused to have one in his own home town of Seymour and went to one of the most liberal cities in America. Todd’s a former Marine, lawyer, pro-life, fiscal and foreign policy hawk, etc. etc.. Hill’s toast no matter what. He can’t win either election, House or Senate. Let’s get behind Todd Young.

    BS

  • bsblogger

    Sodrel is not the way to go. It will be a tough primary but Todd Young is the guy to support. He’s not flashy but he’s young, accomplished, and articulate. His town halls in my district were great where he said all the right things, allowed the people to get what’s on their minds off their chest and has the background to back it up. Last summer, Baron Hill refused to have a town hall for weeks until Mr. Young scheduled his, then finally scheduled one. On the same night. In Bloomington! The Baron refused to have one in his own home town of Seymour and went to one of the most liberal cities in America. Todd’s a former Marine, lawyer, pro-life, fiscal and foreign policy hawk, etc. etc.. Hill’s toast no matter what. He can’t win either election, House or Senate. Let’s get behind Todd Young.

    BS

  • IJB

    I’d liked to here more on what the problem with Sodrel is…

  • bsblogger

    and I’ve voted for him a number of times. His reputation in the area is mixed , however and his base of support has dwindled. From the Repubs I’ve talked to they think he comes off as an opportunist and they are looking for something new. I expect a victory in November and I think Todd Young is the best chance. My observations.

    BS

  • adamcdavis

    If the want a down the line voter with Barry and the gang, then they will push for ‘Red’ Baron Hill. If they want to push a moderate in a red state, then it will be Ellsworth. I want the ‘Red’ Baron. Lets ruin his career for screwing the coal district of Indiana.

  • libertyjustice

    I’m a Hoosier who did “town halls” last year. If you haven’t seen this video of Representative Baron Hill, you need to. We laughed out loud when we saw this one on You Tube in August or September:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtmgQ2W3lhM

  • Reagan

    Travis Hankins is the only conservative running for this seat and his campaign has the support of grassroots conservatives.

    Todd Young is considered to be a “Lugar” Republican and even now in the heat of a GOP primary Young has no conservative policy proposals to offer.

    Travis Hankins will win this primary despite the liberal media and liberal GOP establishment’s plan to discredit him and prop up Young.

  • Reagan

    I beg to differ on your assertion that Young is a conservative. I have heard nothing from him that puts him in the conservative category. He is strong on NRCC and RNC talking points and Richard Lugar/John McCain nuances but nothing that makes him a REAGAN conservative…quite the opposite.

  • proudgop

    but I really have to assume voters in 9th are tired of the never ending Hill vs Sodrel races

    Young is just that young and new face and Sodrel can bankroll his own race because Hill does fundraise very well and Young hasn’t real raised that much

    I believe Young is related to Dan Quayle right?