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‘Deem and Pass’ watch: Brooks on the ledge, Rubin on the sidewalk.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  March 18th, 2010 at 11:36 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

With regard to this despairing statement by David Brooks:

Deem and pass? Are you kidding me? Is this what the Revolutionary War was fought for? Is this what the boys on Normandy beach were trying to defend? Is this where we thought we would end up when Obama was speaking so beautifully in Iowa or promising to put away childish things?

…I do not say that Jen Rubin is sharpening her knife.

Maybe the rubes understand Obama fairly well, after all. They figured out quite some time ago that the entire campaign message — change, hope, post-partisanship, nonideological, fiscally sober — was a ruse. And they understand how immoderate both his methods and his aims are.

I personally am not out on a ledge. (But then I never bought the whole Obama campaign whoop-de-do.) Should this pass, I have infinite faith that the American people will deliver a mortal electoral blow to those politicians who thought they could shred anything to get their way. And then bit by bit — or in one fell swoop — the elected replacements for the shredders will rip out ObamaCare. So there’s no reason to be morose. Elections are great corrective exercises, and one is just around the corner.

That would imply that Jen would have been foolish enough to let the knife get dull in the first place.  She’s not the sort; and neither am I.  I still think that this bill will not pass – but at this point, we’ve got a fallback strategy in place, just in case.  And should quote-unquote ‘moderate’ Democrats really do decide to commit electoral suicide for the sake of their liberal leadership, I guess that we can accommodate them.

And relax about worrying about how we could possibly gut this next year.  The Democrats are doing us the favor of setting the procedural bar very, very, very low…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • Jack_Savage

    You just might get it.

    I wish I knew which ledge he was on. I would be tempted to do us all a favor.

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    to God’s ears, Moe.

    I have this bad feeling that Pelosi has a few votes in her back pocket. I think this thing is going to pass.

    The Senate is where the war will have to be fought, tooth and nail.

    http://neoavatara.com/blog/?p=10387

  • jaykali

    I don’t care ab the elections.

    Eveyone says the democrats will lose in the elections if this passes, it doesn’t matter they are going to lose either way. As far as liberals are concerned if they get the holy grail they don’t care if they sustain losses this decade, they’ll recover later on.

    The fact is once this passes and I think next week it does it’s going to be really tough to undo. This is the beginning of a war and I don’t know who’s going to win. Subsequent Republican administrations are going to try to undo a lot of the govt intervention and add in free market solutions why future Democratic majorities are going to try to grow it.

    What’s bad for Republicans is that the window for changing big parts of the bill is very small, bc the earliest we can get a Republican president in office in 2014, so we really need that and majorities in both houses. It’s not impossible but we’ll see.

    I think it will be as tough to repeal this bill or big chunks of it as it was to pass it but I think health care ‘reform’ is going to be on top of every agenda for years to come.

  • cari

    nt

  • earlgrey

    Willing to support this massive takeover. Also their leadership
    put them in a horrible situation and has already publicly stabbed Stupak in the back. Why do they want to reward her?

  • lucretius

    Demon Pass aspect of the bill, I don’t believe it will have any significant electoral effect. Voters don’t care about process. I, a political junkie, didn’t even remember reconciliation had been used for the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

    Are you saying Dems will get a drubbing because of the effects of the bill itself or because of procedural tactics? I’m pretty convinced 1994 was partly because Hillarycare failed, not in spite of it.

  • lucretius

    Demon Pass aspect of the bill, I don’t believe it will have any significant electoral effect. Voters don’t care about process. I, a political junkie, didn’t even remember reconciliation had been used for the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

    Are you saying Dems will get a drubbing because of the effects of the bill itself or because of procedural tactics? I’m pretty convinced 1994 was partly because Hillarycare failed, not in spite of it.

  • lucretius

    despite my only clicking once. Does anyone know how to avoid this?

  • lucretius

    despite my only clicking once. Does anyone know how to avoid this?

  • earlgrey

    I wonder if this is because she already has te votes and is letting the guys in trouble off the hook.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    This bill will not get 217 votes.

  • LibertarianHawk

    No, I don’t believe that we’ll see a trillion dollars of deficit reduction in the second decade of Obamacare.

    But it really doesn’t matter anymore. This isn’t about fiscal reality, it’s about political cover.

    Hate to say it: but I think the CBO report will be enough to get the abomination over the finish line.

  • tdpwells

    and a pedantic weakling – I can’t stand men like him.

  • LibertarianHawk

    I think you’ll see a lot of undecideds declaring their positions today. And Arcuri was long thought to be leaning against voting for the bill.

    I’m predicting the bill will pass 218-215 on Sunday. Hope I’m wrong.

  • gnomechumpsky

    …about how difficult this will be to undo if they pass it. This is America and we are Americans.

  • Menlo

    Republicans are never going to see large majorities in our lifetimes, certainly not like Democrats have, and no election is going to fix anything.

    If enough of us were upset enough, we could put the insurance companies out of business by refusing to buy any and force this bill’s repeal. Unfortunately, I don’t think enough people are opposed enough to make that sacrifice. Meanwhile, trying to work through elected or appointed officials (like these “feel good” resolutions states are adopting) is a waste of time and money.

  • GT350

    I think Nancy will get the votes, by hook or by crook. Before you call me a couch sitting whiner, listen to me. Outside of DC’ers, I have fought as hard as anyone to stop this Healthcare bill (probably with 1000+ phone calls, office visits and considerable $$ contributions).

    But I am realistic that when the Speaker and Presidency put their entire credibility on the line, they will get party discipline. The only escape is to defect from the Party, like Joe Lieberman.

    That said, I also agree with Jen Rubin: It ain’t over. This bill will be gutted, slashed, and burned to a crisp. The Senate will keep the issue alive until closer to the election. The deals and bribes will be exposed to open air. The tax hikes will never be put in place. The benefits, which only kick in 6 years down the road, will be illusory. It will cause ballooning near-term health care costs and service constraints that give lie to Obama’s promises. These costs will be like the monthly unemployment numbers proving his Stimulus was a lie and a fraud. Economic reality will be painful, but it will ultimately be our biggest ally.

    Finally, I am confident that the American political system is self-correcting. Another 1994 bloodbath will destroy Obama’s remaining agenda. His out-of-control spending will send the Liberals into the wilderness for another 40 years. The damage to the system is substantial but will be overcome. Sometimes you win big by losing.

  • NotSoBlueStater

    … put seats at risk unnecessarily?

  • http://www.thesubstratum.com GJ Merits

    “Virginia last week became the first state in the country to pass a state bill declaring it illegal for the government to require individuals to purchase health insurance, a key part of bills under consideration on Capitol Hill.”

    See here for a map that indicates the current state of similar bills in your state. Looks like Virginia will be flipping to the red color – passed. Hover over and click on the balloon to see the a more detailed update of the status of legislation in your state and call your state representative and governors office. Get the snowball rolling.

    Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/yz3pxfc

  • teresakoch

    According to Dan Perrin, many of the Dems still on the fence haven’t been made aware of this fact by the House leadership. The leadership is basically hanging them out to dry.

    Remind the undecideds that “passing” this through the Slaughter rule is NO DIFFERENT than passing the Senate bill by itself. The only difference is that they will also be voting to pass a reconciliation bill to send to the Senate. If the Slaughter rule is passed, the Senate bill will be passed.

    The reconciliation bill can get “stalled” in the Senate just like it would have before, the President can still sign the Senate bill and refuse to sign the reconciliation bill, and he may very well tell the Senate to move on to other legislation “for the good of the country”.

    THEY NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS – PASSING THE SLAUGHTER BILL CHANGES NOTHING!!!!!!

  • tritonspolartiger

    …we ARE Americans – no need to get down, regardless of what happens.

    That said, I do NOT believe this thing will pass. They STILL don’t have the votes, or they’d be voting as soon as Pelosi could fill the chamber. Calling a vote is NOT scheduling a vote. These weasels are still playing the “creating inevitability” game.

    Besides, even if it does pass, Moe makes a very salient point at the end of his post – the procedural bar will have been set VERY, VERY LOW. After all, the Dems will have effectively nuked the filibuster… so if they can add this student loan nonsense into a piece of healthcare legislation, I see no reason why we can’t turn around and pull a similar bit of legerdemain and insert repeal of this nightmare into, say, a tiny bit of legislation aimed at federalizing dog catchers.

    We run on repealing the beast; we’ll win in all but the bluest locales; then we invoke the SlaughterHouse Rule with a conservative in the white house after 2012. Two can play this game.

    We must keep our wits here

  • eburke

    All this handwringing about people coming out in favor of the bill is nuts. I wouldn’t doubt that a lot of these folks who were yesses in Nov went onto the undecided list just so they could come out in ‘favor’ of the bill in order to create a sense of ‘momentum’ for the bill.

    The *ONLY* numbers that matter are yesses to no’s and no’s to yes’s. Acuri’s flip means the crapweasel dem leadership has to now go out and find another no to a yes. And the only place left to find these people are for the most part in R+ districts.

    Their task just got harder.

  • momo

    we have two “blue dogs” who will now be voting yes on healthcare because they have been bought off with a promised allocation of 25% water supply for the farmers. We are currently at 100%+ rainfall levels for the year!! These Dbags were going to vote for the bill anyway but they should have held out for at least 50%

  • http://www.thesubstratum.com GJ Merits

    These guys are doing just that teresakoch. A similar campaign they did last year caused the Senate to start obstructing just in time or we would have had ObamaCare by now Scott Brown or no Scott Brown.

    They did a large email buy (not cheap) and are running this on full throttle:

    http://patientoptout.com/email/senate-gop-must-object-obstruct-delay-again/

  • eburke

    extra just in case someone went rogue on you and changed their vote at the last second.

  • writeblock

    …the Senate won’t matter. The bill then would be “passed”–unconstitutionally it appears. Then the war goes to the courts and the polls.

  • http://www.thesubstratum.com GJ Merits

    I don’t think it will pass, but if it does, as the post states the states are already fighting and not just in the courts. Question is, what is your state doing:

    http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2010/03/18/deem-and-pass-watch-brooks-on-the-ledge-rubin-on-the-sidewalk/#comment-31577

  • writeblock

    Since when is it helpful to express discouragement in the middle of a battle? This only undermines morale. Stop the hand-wringing and join the fight. The last thing we need to read are posts like these–especially when the outcome is actually unclear and there are plenty of signs we’ll win this thing. As of now they don’t have the votes. We need one or two more–and there are 50 undecideds.

  • peg_c

    Jump!

  • writeblock

    …Hillarycare was despised by the public–which was why it went down to a resounding defeat in the first place–and Obamacare is despised even more–process and content. The American public is VERY aware of the backroom deals and trickery used in trying to pass this piece of socialism. There will be hell to pay in November one way or the other, pass or fail.

  • writeblock

    The Hill has 37 no’s listed. There are at least 5 more among the undecideds.

  • Return to Revolution

    for this NOT to be over Sunday. If Pelosi can’t come up with the votes, I just can’t see her dropping it or letting it die by going to a vote. It will just drag on and on until she gets removed from power.

  • writeblock

    Why the pessimism? Nothing has changed. I never expected the CBO numbers to come out any differently, given the input by Pelosi. This isn’t going to change a thing. The swing districts are still toss-ups and constituents still hate the bill. The Stupak gang is still intact. The votes still aren’t there.

  • GT350

    Large majorities of R’s or D’s should not exist. They are an aberration.

    I never thought R’s would have the Presidency, House, and Congress like we did thru 2006. The R’s overreached and got too comfortable with power and spending. The electorate slapped them back to bring balance back to governance. The Blue Dogs were voted in by conservative voters, angry with big-government Republicans. Those seats never belonged to the Democrats, and certainly won’t in Nov 2010.

    The Democrat supermajority was always a freak occurrence, just waiting to be normalized. It was always a matter of time. They are overreaching, and that hand will be slapped back even harder. Massachussetts was the first shot, but I am optimistic for a Republican-led House AND Senate next fall. 2010 will make 1994 look like a party. We will use that control to gut the Obama agenda and keep his big-spending ways in a box.

    America is a center-right country. Always was, always will be.

  • eburke

    to get 1 no to officially flip to a yes (and that was Kucinich who I *never* believed would allow himself to be the vote to scuttle health care) OTOH, there are TEN no’s that were yes’s last time. And yet the Dem’s and their sycophants in the MSM are trying to conjure up this chimera that there’s a mad rush toward the bill.

    Right now, the Dem leadership would have to get every single No on the undecided list to flip to a yes AND hope that there aren’t any more of the Stupak 12 that were Yes’s in November listed in the Undecided’s and since Stupak is holding his cards really close to his vest, there’s a good chance there are.

    And some of us keep acting like this is all over for us.

    Grrrr!!!!!

  • writeblock

    Seems to me there’d be more public announcements if this were the case.

  • http://www.thesubstratum.com GJ Merits

    http://ow.ly/1nTkU

  • http://www.thesubstratum.com GJ Merits

    http://tinyurl.com/ygf55t4

    Get the word out on the IBD story. Twitter, facebook, email, post. And fax, call, and email Congress.

  • earlgrey

    Some ways are more productive than others.

    Do you know anything about Lynch from
    Mass? I am giddy over his possible flip. Of course it could be nothing.

  • GT350

    HillaryCare and ObamaCare are both despised. The notion that “1994 is because HCare failed” is a fantasy constructed by the MSM. The truth is the public hated the concentration of power in Democrat hands, hated the overreaching, and hated the tax hikes. They kicked the D’s to the curb to put Mr. Clinton in a box. He only emerged b/c of his incredible political skills. Obama does not have those skills.

    Now stock up on popcorn and watch what happens in Nov 2010. I have faith in the American voter.

  • msctex

    this is the true end of the Cold War, the death rattle of an entire socio/eco/philosophic way of thinking disproven by use. We’re watching as their lies catch up with them faster and faster; it is only a matter of time before they reach the point they are no longer taken at all seriously be anyone. The States are already girding up to protect themselves; if the Press functioned at all, that alone would be enough to signal defeat.

    The only question is how much damage will be done in the meantime.

  • Ward_Off_Monkey

    http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11355&type=1 or http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11355&zzz=40566
    I had it pulled up a few minutes ago but went off that page and now it says not authorized to view this page. You can get to the link from CBO.gov through the cost estimates menu link and either browse or search and it will show up as the first item.

    Wonder why they pulled it so you can’t access it now? Suppose they discovered some critical errors in their preliminary estimates, especially since they haven’t seen the final legislation but just some notes on the amendments changes?

  • Aaron Gardner

    House Budget Committee Ranking Republican Paul Ryan (WI) issued the following statement:

    ?The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press ? and spinning for partisan gain ? numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was ?giddy? about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority ? in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office ? to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost.?

    I don’t have a link for this right now, but trust me, there is no CBO Score yet.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Exactly what I was thinking.

  • Ward_Off_Monkey

    that all the estimates are preliminary. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf

    Here’s the key passage from the first page of the cover letter to Nancy Pelosi that speaks to the unreliability of these numbers:

    “Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.”

  • Ward_Off_Monkey

    the Preliminary Estimate of the Effects on the Federal deficit / a,b

    a. Does not include federal administrative costs that would be subject to appropriation.

    So no administrative cost are calculated at all in these numbers. I guess all that new bureaucracy will just work for free?

  • http://www.usawatchmen.com/blog usawatchmen

    I don’t think the American public is aware. We are, because we follow politics. Most people that I see on a daily basis have no idea about backroom deals or even how congress works. They only want that warm fuzzy feeling. They are naive and believe what Obama and the media tells them. I think more are waking up, but we must sound the alarm even louder.

  • GT350

    I don’t know how the vote will turn out. Could go either way. It is up to the consciences of a handful of conservative House Democrats. That said, I’m on the phone with them making my voice heard.

    I hope we can kill it today. If we lose today I will fight again tomorrow. But the American people are with me (sayeth any poll you wish to consult). So I keep calling.

  • Menlo

    I’ll acknowledge that the chances of defeating it in the house would be far greater than ever doing so in a court or in a state. At least the former is not one hundred percent impossible. That’s about the extent of my optimism.

    Like I said, state legislatures are adopting what amount to little more than “feel good” statements. In practice, they change nothing. I do want to thank you for the laugh though with that final question. Texas has the nation’s most worthless and incompetent legislature, a trend the primary voting majority recently ensured will continue.

  • mizzoutiger

    I love that some people really support this: http://bit.ly/9ltkD1 What are they thinking?

  • nayyer_ali

    If this is to be stopped it has to be stopped before it becomes law. Once it is in, it will be extremely difficult to reverse. No expansion of the social safety net has ever been repealed, in fact they tend to get rather popular. Notice how many Republicans are suddenly springing to the defense of Medicare, a program that Ronald Reagan decried as socialism when it was passed. To repeal this law will need 60 senators, a House majority and the President to sign it. No matter how bad the Dems lose this November there is no chance of repeal. Obama will be reelected in 2012 because by then the economy will be mending and the deficit declining. He is at his lowest point right now. Reagan looked like a one-termer 2 years in and Repubs got creamed in the mid-terms. He then romped to his reelection. The same is going to happen this time.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    I figured this was coming. She knows she will lose to Cory Gardner in November, so she’s decided she might as well take the country down with her.