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FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Optimism Watch: Instapundit/Israel/Obama edition.

I like Glenn Reynolds, but I think that he’s wrong here about why the President is mucking about with Israel right now:

I think Obama expects Israel to strike Iran, and wants to put distance between the United States and Israel in advance of that happening. (Perhaps he even thinks that treating Israel rudely will provoke such a response, saving him the trouble of doing anything about Iran himself, and avoiding the risk that things might go wrong if he does). On the most optimistic level, maybe this whole thing is a sham, and the U.S. is really helping Israel strike Iran, with this as distraction.

For three reasons:

  1. He’s a Democrat, and Democrats are not very good at foreign policy.
  2. He’s a Democrat, and Democrats are not very good at foreign policy*.
  3. Even if he wanted to do this, his staff are all Democrats, and Democrats are not very good at foreign policy**.

Come right down to it, if the President was planning to implicitly or explicitly let Israel take care of our Iran problem we’d already know, because somebody in his administration would have leaked a warning to the Iranians via the New York Times.  Which is probably more ‘sedition’ than ‘treason’ – not much of a distinction, admittedly – but still something that any Democratic President has to take into account when trying to formulate a foreign policy at odds with the neocom wing of the Democratic party.

Moe Lane

*To paraphrase a classic: “I know that, technically, that’s only one [reason], but it was such a big one I thought I’d mention it twice.”

**Or three times.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

COMMENTS

  • mschmitt

    The Obama administration is no more willing to speak to Israel without preconditions than it is Iran, and our self-assumed King is just plain annoyed that they would treat him as a strategic partner — perhaps even a wayward and/or inept one — and not as their master.

  • throwback59

    Obama doesn’t like Israel.
    Period. End of story.

  • mschmitt
  • janis

    follow the pattern of other countries:

    Start taking away the freedoms that Israelis have traditionally had.
    Murder/imprison/torture a few hundred of its citizens when they speak out against their government.
    Nationalize all private industry.
    Ruin their economy.

    Easy as pie. Obama will host a party in their honor and invite all the other tyrants to raise a toast to them.

  • jeffreywturner

    n/t

  • jeffreywturner

    who was dismissed as “dumb” and “unsophisticated” when she tried to point out Obama’s history of alliances with antisemitic left-wing nut jobs?

    Gee wiz, my memory fails me.

  • fpete13527

    I agree that there is no semblance of foreign policy proficiency in ANY Dem administration….ESPECIALLY this one.

    However, I believe that the Dems, ESPECIALLY this administration DO know how to conduct foreign policy in a way that DISEMPOWERS the Unitied States in order to turn control of the United States over to the United Nations of Alinsky.

    The distancing from Israel further supports the disempowerment of the U. S. as a sovereign nation. This is a clear stated goal of the Obama administration.

    The Obama adminsitration empowers all nations and inititves that promote socialism, communism, and sharia law. They disempower all nations that promote freedom and capitolism….like Israel.

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    Israel wants to buy three C-130 Transports from Lockheed-Martin.

    http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/me_israel0250_03_26.asp

    The Obama administration has not approved a major military
    sale to Israel. Over the last year, Israel has submitted a range of requests for U.S. aircraft, missiles, refueling systems and helicopter upgrades.

    =========

    That?s called an embargo. Say it with me??. EmBarGo.

    What makes anyone think Obama?s gonna ?change? now ?

    I bet Obama lets the three aircraft get built (jobs, jobs, jobs…….. making damn sure not one single non-union person is involved at any level)…………… and five minutes before takeoff of the aircraft frames for delivery to IDF, he cancels the whole shootin? match because he can’t allow Teh Eeeeevil Jooooooooooos any possibility of having his carbon footprint on defending their homeland and people.

    That?s definitely conceivable as a scenario.

    But worse yet, it?s a three-year time frame on delivery.

    Israel doesn?t have three years.

  • rodney_robbins

    Other than the very astute observation that Dems are not very good at this foreign policy thing.. It’s clear from the pattern of behavior that Obama is carefully pushing our traditional allies away, and snuggling up to the international dregs of society. This is no accident. He is clearly an islamic sympathizer, and Israel is in for some very hard times.

    It is ironic that the Jewish vote was probably very key to his getting elected.

  • fairtaxguy

    They agree with us and have some thoughtful commentary about Obama and Israel. Also the scripture says the nations who bless Israel will be blessed and the nations that curse Israel will be cursed. 80% of Americans support Israel.

  • johnt

    You can’t rely on a low class, ignorant media to do your advance & support work for you. Foreign entities are not moulded by that media, they couldn’t care less about the things that send the media and millions of morons into a tizzy of admiration over a man and a party composed of the dregs of the human race. ACORN is of no use here.
    It would help if we had a person of at least minimal decency and competence in the WH, rather than one who because he detests his country,[ at least I think it's his country] also detests it’s allies.
    Just where is the fabled intelligence & capabilities of this crew, or liberals [?] in general? It ain’t there, it never was.

  • Castor

    I believe Obama is bludgeoning Israel for various reasons: 1. He is an antisemite .2. He wants to be a hero to the Muslims.3. He wants to provoke Israel into an attack on Iran that he hopes will fail. I believe that Israel will attack Iran, but that it won?t fail.They have 5 dolphin class submarines capable of launching low yield nuclear missles.They also have better intel about Iran than we do. It would not be difficult for them to do enough damage that it would take years for Iran to recover. If they could take out some of the IRGC leaders in the attack, better yet. True, the wishy washy europeans would condemn the attack as well as others, but both Egypt and Saudi Arabia would be very happy. Then Obama would be forced to send in the navy to clean up the mines in the straits of Hormuz.

  • archer52

    I think Castor may also have some good points, including a closeted dislike for Jews. You don’t sit in the pews for twenty yars and not pick something up.

    Here is my post-

    http://truthandcommonsense.com/2010/03/27/israel-is-getting-the-message-they-are-alone-good-thing-they-have-nukes/

    Truth is Obama is a thirteen year old in a man’s body. He is uninterested in anything that does not directly affect him to his advantage. He cannot accept criticism or being told he is wrong. He is spiteful and vengeful in his mental process. “I’ll show them someday” seems to be a driving force in his personality. I know these people as many of you do. They are angry, insecure, shallow in much of their intellect, and desire immediate gratification. He hides it well, but his is a thirteen year old boy who wants to be the one who always gets the ball thrown to him.
    And if you don’t he’ll stomp and carry on and mutter “You get yours one day, you just watch!”

    It would be fine if he were in a job where that didn’t matter, but the leader of a superpower?

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    …want Israel to bomb Iran, thus 1) ending the threat but 2) keeping their favorite whipping boy in type, to be whipped some more.

    We weren’t joking when we wrote (4 times now) that some real men need to step forward and end this by taking the unilateral action Bush should have taken (and would now). That’s either France or Russia, and since Russia is on Iran’s side (for purely non-doctrinaire reasons) that leaves the French.

    Oh, well.

  • janis

    wouldn’t this give Obama and the other tyrants around the world all the reason they’d need to unite and go after Israel for Israel’s “unprovoked attack on a nation which was only seeking to use their nuclear power for energy needs instead of for war as the Israelis have just done.”

  • janis

    Or are you implying that what Obama and Bibi went through in the WH the other night was a type of Kabuki for the benefit of the rest of the Muslim world?

    If so, then what about the weapons that have been denied to the Israelis by this administration? Would any of those weapons be crucial to the success of an Israeli strike on Iran? If not, then that makes me feel somewhat more sanguine, but not much.

  • http://jhpruitt.blogtownhall.com/ kipling

    I think we all agree that the most optimistic scenario of the U.S. actually helping Israel strike Iran is very unlikely.

    With that said, according to Mr. Reynolds, we are left with the the President of the United States acting like a teenage school girl attempting to manipulate those around her to get what she ultimately wants. It is like a plot from 90120 where one girl manipulates a boy to get said boy to do something to another person. Is this the foreign policy we get from a Harvard grad and he team of geniuses? Sweet mother of pearl, we are in trouble.

  • weatherford

    The reason for a very robust U.S. Nuclear Warfare presence is greater today than during the “hot” cold-war. And Israel is, or sure ought to be, worried sick over Obama’s antics with the Russians.

    Put bluntly, Israel must have a credible failback on the nuclear forces of the United States to deter IRAN from a first strike if Iran gains that capacity.

    To be clear: the failback is not strickly to deter Iran, but to checkmate more capable nuclear forces from arraying their atomic weaponry in defense of Iran to Israel’s great strategic detriment.

    This morning Megan Kelly, by inference, extoled Obama’s brilliance in arranging a meeting with Putin TO SIGN a nuclear disarmament Treaty with the “ex”-Soviets. I didn’t catch the date Megan gave but it was in early April and may have been as soon as April 9th.

    Megan mentioned in passing the need for the Senate’s consent to ratification but glided over that point as if it entailed a mere “tradition.”

    It was unclear whether she meant before or after the signing ceremony in Moscow. It would not be unusual to have the President sign subject to Senate approval, but in the case of this rogue administration, implimentation on the Obama signature alone is highly likely under the rubric of the inherent powers of the Commander-in-Chief.

    The State Department often asserts, falsely, that the signing of a treaty “ad referendum” obliges the U.S. to do nothing in derogation of the treaty terms during its pendency before the Senate. This doctrine is complete nonsense, but the danger here is even worse. Will Obama simply draw down our nuclear deterent BEFORE consent to it?

    As to the treaty terms as we are sparely informed of them, it appears that the U.S. would reduce its forces by one-third and Russia would reduce its forces by a similar amount. That is very bad for our position as a nuclear power, as to Russian, as to China, and as to both of them in our dealing with third-world powers with atom bombs.

    The point is that Russia’s atomic arsenal is already so much larger than ours that a one-third reduction for them means eliminating fat while a one-third reduction for the U.S. means eliminating muscle.

    The proposed treaty should be assessed against one measure, the American Plan for fighting a nuclear war and winning. That plan, based on adequate nuclear arms, is why we are RIGHT NOW protected from a surprise nuclear attack. Does Obama care if he destroys or cripples that plan? He has done enough to our country already for us to know the answer.

  • ceili_dancer

    It’s the right thing to do. They have stood with us throughout the cold war and since. They’ve done all of the dirty work around the world. Pray for us and pray for Israel.

  • mikerazar

    the first casualty of an Iranian attack on Israel will be the destruction of Mecca. The second will be the rendering of the mideast oil radioactive and unusable for centuries.

    Israel will survive. America will survive. The Arabs and Europeans? Not so well.

  • Scope

    If Obama wanted Israel to attack Iran to take care of the problem, then why is he stopping shipments of weapons and C-130′s to Israel? I don’t think it’s a far stretch to consider that the O wants Iran to wipe Israel off the map. That way the O can say, now at long last there is peace for the Palestinians, and I am the one who brought that about. Aren’t I great, no other pres. has been able to do that. It’s historic.

    This deluded piece of crapola is all about smoke and mirrors, but, I don’t think his disgusting treatment of Bibi N. was anything more than what we all heard. Isn’t it amazing that there are no pictures of Bibi and his team leaving the WH. I guess he didn’t want to see or hear a repeat of the Dali Lama’s shove out the back door to piles of garbage. Don’t worry Pres., we already know you are clueless, classless, and delusional, that makes you even more lethal.

  • Scope

    n/t

  • archer52

    The Russians win either way. They get Iran off the market and Russia’s oil is worth more . Iran continues to occupy the Mideast and Russia can reap the benefits of our being willing to negotiate with them (like not deploy missile defense systems).

    Russia isn’t stupid. But they are playing with fire a little. There is no telling which way a missile goes once it is in the air. If Iran decides to make Russia glow for being “infidels”….

  • Doc Holliday

    they may save some needed money on dumping rusty, expensive weapons that are used only to boost the numbers, but they would NEVER do anything to weaken themselves. Obama wants to weaken the USA, so it is a win for Obama and for Russia.

    BTW, Israel could turn Iran into a glass factory with its own nuclear arsenal. Of course they need us as an ally, but not to stop Iran. They need us for the blowback if and when they do stop iran.

    BTW, I think Obama will be tossed aside before the US tosses away Israel. Obama looks like he will step too far and lose his power, good.

    I am not counting chickens early, it just seems this guy is a pulled off his mask and the monster is out of control.

  • weatherford

    Speling, again. This time in the lead in.

    It’s got something to do with dysgraphia. Well, at leas,as a denial, that sounds plausabel.

  • Scope

    are the many many Jewish people in his admin, and the Congress. They know what he is doing, and they still stand by their man.

  • Doc Holliday

    then again, you are wrong :) It has nothing to do with Democrat foreign policy ineptitude. It has to do with the fact that Obama hates Netanyahu and likely cares nothing for Israel and the Jooos.

    the hard left loves the Palestinians only because they hate the Jews. It may sound simple, it may sound horrible, but these people ARE horrible.

  • mikerazar

    Knock out the mideast oil and Russia does just fine. America will be forced to build massive coal to gasoline factories, but will be back to normal in two years. Europe will just wither away. All those old age pensions and free medical care will evaporate. The Arab world will be a wasteland.

    So five years later America and Israel will have rebuilt. The Russians and Chinese may even come to their senses. The English speaking countries will manage to survive and may even help the mother country. The Kurds will rule Iran.

    Any questions?

  • weatherford

    You are absolutely right – in any one-one-one with Iran.

    What I was flagging was the overall strategic deterant of Israel, which is, certainly to a degree, based on the informal assumption that Israel, at least up until Obama, was generally considered by other major nuclear powers to be, as to them, under the U.S. nuclear umbrellla.

    The more significant factor is exactly the one you highlighted. The treaty must be weighed against its effect upon the components (the atomic weapons) needed to carry out our integrated strategic plan for nuclear war fighting.

    My guess is that it would put that plan in great jeopardy.

    Are our Senators even looking? Perhaps so, but should we leave it to Mitch?

  • gnomechumpsky

    Do we even have until November to correct this mistake?
    (in a non-violent way – just to clarify)

  • janis

    and look how much to heart he has taken those teachings. Although granted, the kind of “Christianity” he heard for 20 years bears almost no resemblance to the kind that Christ actually taught. But no one in his administration is ruled by their religious beliefs, because they don’t have any.

    You cannot serve two masters.

  • izoneguy

    by Federal standards….
    The only good thing is that the Federal Government is sooooo slooooowwww………

  • Doc Holliday

    just like the health care take over. And I find it absurd we put in the contract that Russia could back out if they don’t like our nuclear shield plans and the administration say it is no big deal. It is like these people are children.

  • littlehouse18

    it’s just twisted. And that’s the frightening thing.

  • weatherford

    nt

  • philbo

    And America could not stand by and do nothing while its national interests in the Middle East are ruined.

    The more plausible explanation is that the administration is hoping to buy time by forcing the nationalistic Likud to bend and so create an appearance of progress

    I believe that Obama is underestimating Israel’s resolve to survive as a nation. He is also underestimating the political backlash that abandoning Isreal (and American national interests) to destruction will trigger. It would signal that we are being led by a suicidal cult and must be stopped by any means. Even if it means defying the Republican ban on being impolite.

  • jsmiddleton4

    “I believe that Obama is underestimating Israel?s resolve to survive as a nation.”

    Yep but being consistent with his arrogance, he is over estimating his role in being able to control Israel.

  • mbecker908

    1. Israel, for the very near future CAN defeat Iran by themselves. It will require the use of nuclear weapons and taking out all of the major Iranian population centers. Not pretty, but doable.

    2. America – certainly under this administration – would gladly stand by and watch Israel wiped out because Obama seems to think our national interest lies with the “Palestinians”.

    3. These children are not smart enough to consider “buying time” because they wouldn’t have a clue what to do with it.

    4. Obama’s not underestimating anything, he simply doesn’t care about Israel beyond making sure it’s overrun by “Palestinians”.

    5. Don’t hold hold your breath about backlash in the US. The people who care about Israel are Republicans and the Left and the Democratic Party are staunchly anti-Semitic.

    6. Republicans won’t be “impolite” as long as the current R leadership is around.

  • weatherford

    have got this one dead on.

    Didn’t The O get schooled in his formative years at a Madressa in Indonesia.
    Or was it just a regular Muslim school?

    Israel is justified if it feels a bit uneasy about a U.S. President bearing the name “Husien.” I do.

    But the question is much larger than C-130s. A much bigger but tied issue
    is not what Obama is not selling to Israel but what he is giving to Russia.

    Maybe I am drawing a picture that is too obvious, but the easiest way to unblock Obama’s apparent distaste for Israel is to show a modicum of interest in his related deal with Russia.

    Americans should all do that anyway — just for our own country’s well-being.

  • johnt

    about it. At Langley the prices in the CIA cafeteria are known to the penny, anything else they get from the NY Times.
    And don’t get caught in the stampede at quitting time.

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    I think they want to get rid of the Iran threat but still be able to beat up Israel

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    I just think that when someone steps outside the box and ends the problem without Israel being the bad guy, and no in the US is going to choose that option, then the world benefits. History benefits,

    It’s not likely. I just like to tweak Russians for being less men than the French

  • weatherford
  • philbo

    that THIS Republican party is a lost cause. I get reamed daily by lots of so-called “conservatives” for saying that. The key for retaking the GOP is August 24 in AZ when McCain should fail to secure the nomination. It’s an open field for conservatives after that.

  • jdw4america

    Just as much as the average Muslim in Syria. They should be ashamed, but they are not. Any day now I expect to hear a defense of the Holocaust deniers from our brainless little gorm, barry.

    If anyone in Israel can hear me – hold on, brothers, we’ll be there as soon as we can tie his hands!

    Just needed to say that.
    Love from a good little Catholic girl

  • weatherford

    they are very resourceful, active, and relentless.

    [I wrote a long disertation on senate procedure in executive session and how the government can be shut down for at least two months, easily, under treaty consideration procedures -- particularly of a bad treaty.]

    Somehow my entire text disappeared toward the end. I’m going to take a break and try again later. The procedures are complex, but they cut very much our way and are designed to preclude foreign “entanglements.”

    My main point was that the proposed deal with the Russia on nuclear arms is terrible, but it presents a golden oppotunity to us — if Mitch is not allowed to soft shoe around a real danger to the country and a great opening for us to win one of overridding importance — while also inflicting massive and severe collateral damage.

    More to follow.

  • http://www.asmallcornerofsanity.com NosferatusCoffin

    Doc Holliday:

    I am glad someone else sees this, as well.

    I have been saying for the last 8 months or so that Obama will be driven out of office by sometime next year. After the Dems see how badly they will be slaughtered in November, they and the media are going to turn on him like a rabid rattlesnake. The GOP majority will just be along for the ride. But I feel he is already toast.

    I would wager that 12-15 months from now, Obama is no longer POTUS.

  • mschmitt

    Let’s see them try that sort of thing with a powerful country like Iran — pfeh — hardly…

    Putin is a well known laughing stock amongst the mullahs. They call him “Sag Mahmoud Bach Biyaad”, which is Farsi for “the shameful child of Mahmoud’s Dog.” They think they have the Russians in the palms of their left hands.

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    make wild allegations, and contine to use thuggish tactics. If and when he does get defeated in 2012, I imagine he’ll say it was because of health care. But the fact is, the American people who voted for him in 2008 wised up to his song and dance six months ago.

  • 29Victor

    but it would mean replacing the bulb.

  • eburke

    I’m pretty sure that ‘toast’ is really just code word for ‘black’ which means that what you’re really doing is employing closet racist rhetoric designed to incite violence against TheOne.

    Don’t think you can fool me, pal.

    Racist!

    Sincerely,

    Jim Clyburn

  • mschmitt
  • weatherford

    but if this joke on our security weasles it way to the Senate, IT CAN BE DEFEATED.

    Apart from one procedural rule disaster that Mitch already permitted to reduce the power of the Senate, the Senate Rules remain highly protective of the rights of a minority in opposing and defeating a bad treaty — especially one that is held in the Senate long enough for the People to recognize just how bad and how dangerous it is.

    The exceptionally strong protections afforded to even ONE senator during consideration of a treaty are founded, inter alia, in Washington’s warning against “foreign entanglements.”

    Initially, it may be left to only a few to hold this Obama garbage up to public ridicule long enough for the People to be fully informed before and during a vigorous attack on Obama as a cowering sell-out.

    The are plenty of folks on this site who understand the Senate Rules pertaining to the consideration of a treaty in executive session.

    I dont want to be overbearing and thus hope someone else will get what can be done outlined so we all know the easy route, under entrenched procedure, for killing this turkey — while doing as much collateral damage as inventive minds can cause.

    This proposed treaty with Russia is a golden opportunity we need.

  • eburke

    he’s been busted for being a racist, bigoted, sexist, homophobic, gun & religion clinging, right-wing terrorist tool.

    It’s a new day, man! Get with the program!!

  • mbecker908

    Except that JD won’t even get close. It’s McCain in a walk.

    Either John Shadegg or Jeff Flake could have given McCain a real run and potentially either could have beaten him. Hayworth is a well known idiot in Arizona. He’s no Marco Rubio, JD is very well known all over Arizona and is about as popular as HIV.

    McCain will most likely win by 20 or more. JD hit his high mark on the day that people talked about him running back in November of last year.

  • Superheater

    During the health insurance hi jinks, Reverend Jackson gave him spiritual advice that he shouldn’t let America be a tool of the h*mies..

  • larryp

    how come no CEO or Bibi doesn’t just thow the papers or coffee or wahtever back in his face?

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    I dunno…… Maybe it’s because of those highly trained, mostly unsmiling folks in the dark suits who are never more than a few feet from this little twerp The President Of The United States at all times.

    They tend to move very quickly with incredible skill and also have toys that go bang.

    However, on a figurative basis, PM Bibi did just that – coffee in the face, papers in the air, etc…….. The morning after the meeting…….. PM Netanyahu’s office – not the man himself, but his office – sent a memo to our Dictator In Training Pants saying Israel’s Jerusalem policy would not change.

    Yeah, the word ‘change’ was in there too. It’s a 50/50 guess if that was on purpose……. Some of ‘my people’ have one heck of a sense of engaging in irony at the proper moments in time.

    —— —— ——

    On a side note, if you ever get to meet any of ‘the detail’ (inner and/or outer), say thank you. Their job, first and foremost, is as a shield. Not many people are capable of that, knowing what it entails.

  • mikerazar

    or something like that, lol

  • horseshowfreak

    serious, foreign policy is a republican thing, and i don’t trust these socialists in charge one bit. you only have to look back to how nixon handled vietnam and compare it to johnson. slam dunk for nixon! even ford was better than jimmy carter (though the liberal mainstream nobel committee gave a PEACE prize to carter– rendering it worthless decades before BHO got it as a social promotion.

    the masters for foreign policy, though, were reagan and the two bushes. who won the cold war? hello? (hint, it wasn’t gorbachev). who kicked saddam’s a** the first time? and who kicked it again? (hint: there was an eight year hiatus of useless foreign policy between those two). we’re still reaping the benefits of all that virtuosic foreign policy. too bad BHO doesn’t have the cognitive capacity or love for america sufficient to complete the good job started by Bush Jr.!