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Unpacking the Rasmussen partisan numbers.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 2nd, 2010 at 09:06 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I had read the latest Rasmussen examination on the topic (short version: health care debate increased both the GOP and Democrats’ partisan identification) when I noticed that they had provided a handy table of their polling results over time. I personally feel that this material is more accessible in graph form; so I pulled the results, averaged them by quarter, and graphed the whole thing out. So:

The vertical bars represent the last three federal elections. Using somewhat primitive analysis methods (‘squinting and looking’) 2005-2006 seems to show that Independent voters increased at the cost of Republican ones; and 2007-2008 seems to show Democratic voters increased at the cost of Independent ones. And since then… Republican voters are more or less holding steady, while Democratic voters are dropping at about the same rate that Independent ones are growing.

All of this is important because the Democratic strategy for victory in 2010 is based on the conditions on the ground in the first quarter of 2009, which was a distinctly better time to be a Democrat than it is today. Rasmussen is not the only pollster to notice the Democrats’ loss of independent* voters (PPP‘s Tom Jensen is probably hoarse from all his shouting about that by now); but if the implications of this trend has been internalized by Democratic political strategists, it’s not obvious from their actions.

You can imagine how broken up I am about this.

Moe Lane

PS: If the Republican party would like to take long-term (or even medium-term) advantage of this, it would be well-advised to not forget about fiscal responsibility once we’re back in control of the House.

Very.
Well.
Advised.

*For the record: ‘independent’ does not mean ‘moderate’ in this context. It means ‘neither Republican nor Democrat.’

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • EagleWatcher

    Some people became independent because the GOP wasn’t conservative enough. Some Dems became independent because the Social Democrats weren’t Left wing enough.

    The independent block is not homogeneous. I would like to see Rasmussen or somebody break down the political views of the “Independent” block.

  • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

    that says the majority of the country identifies as conservative, either moderately or strongly. He has been citing it for a long time now and every year is comparable to the years before.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    …not Republican because they think the GOP is just another socialist party.

    Call them constitutional conservatives. Or libertarians. Or whatever. Capture them and you win every election.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    Note that the number of self-identified independents seems to drop during presidential election years – I’d be interested to see if that holds up historically. If it does, it would contradict the pundit-class conventional wisdom that the harsh campaigning and flawed candidates of our presidential contests turns people off. To the contrary, it would seem that personalizing the issues through an identifiable leader and laying out the contrasts between the parties appears to pull more people off the fence.

  • philbo

    would be to extend the time frame as far back as possible and see whether there has ever been a time in history where both parties were this unpopular at the same time. This sure makes the argument that America is very ready for a new party to replace one of these two 3rd parties pretending to be “a major” party.

    This one-party government of corruptocrats has taken America to a very dangerous place indeed.

  • Woo_girl

    now the dems know!! Can’t Rasmussen keep a secret?

  • The_Gadfly

    and never allow the facts to get in the way of that. If you look at any of the years with large election victories, they were years in which the distinctions between the parties are clear, not years in which the candidates are “running toward the middle” “in classic Nixonian fashion” (to pick on a few of their favorite phrases).

  • IJB

    Much before 2004 or 2000, the numbers you’d get for “partisan identification” would be few and far between, and probably sketchy (e.g. some would measure that among Registered Voters, some among All Adults, and only a few among Likely Voters) and not really comparable.

    Unfortunately, I think Rasmussen’s numbers back through 2004 are likely as good as we’re going to get on the subject…

  • The_Gadfly

    I’m more certain they can’t read polls, and nearing philosophical certainty that even those few who can read polls, are incapable of internalizing what they mean. So I believe you could wave Moe’s column in their faces (although you’ll want to be very careful to keep your mouth tightly close so you can’t be accused of spitting on them) and it wouldn’t help them any.

  • usedtobelib

    the term “middle class” to the Dems. I know it’s a simple observation, but simple applications of language matter and looking at polls and trying to figure out with whom people identify reminds me of a fundamental failure of the GOP.

    To wit: There isn’t an American voter who doesn’t associate the term “middle class” with the Dems and” big business” with the Repubs. That so many of them actually believe that Dems are more likely to fight for middle class interests remains very disturbing, but that erroneous conclusion persists because the GOP has no overarching strategy to once and for all beat back that ridiculous link with simple language at every opportunity.

    It seems “small business” is all the Repubs manage to substitute now. It justs galls me that the party most associated for years with business seems clueless about using what the business of marketing has to teach about using language effectively.

    Here we are a few weeks after the health care debacle and already they seem to be content to link the new law with fears of debt–that’s good, of course, and it does resonate, but they have already, it seems, stopped talking about how the middle class, particularly middle class Baby Boomers, are going to suffer from the rationing of medical care once the law takes full effect. Yes, seniors will feel the pain, but many older seniors will never feel the full force of this law. This argument was made early in the debate, but has faded from the cacophony. Why?

    One of the business guys on Fox put it best—government is going to take from seniors who most need medical care, particularly Baby Boomers, so that healthy 20 year olds can have it. What’s up with that?

    Why hasn’t a simple sentence like that been said over and over and over again by the GOP, even on this break?

    And most curious, why hasn’t one of the most fightful terms to have come out of literature in the last hundred years, Big Brother, been attached by now to Obama and his big bureaucracy.

    The spotlight on health care was the perfect opportunity for the conservatives to proclaim, over and over again, in a loud, unrelenting voice, that once again the Dems were out to “Soak the middle class, those who get up and go to work every day of their lives” while pretending to be their protectors!

    So much of communications isn’t rocket science. Reagan was the last GOPer who was able to link the middle class to conservative ideas.

    We need to apply Occam’s Razor.

  • Achance

    they still think they’re young. Most are still working though some, like me, have government retirements already. Whether retired or still working, most have quite good health insurance and most are still enjoying good health. Two things are about to happen: the price of their health insurance is going to skyrocket and their employer is either going to make them pay for it or let them go and their health is going to deteriorate inexorably. I know I’ve used more of my medical benefit in the last two years than I had in the preceding twenty.

    Anyway, the times they are a’changin, but it doesn’t really seem to have sunk in to most Boomers who they’re going to cull from the herd with health care rationing.

  • gbenton

    Right now, independents appear to be increasingly disenchanted with the Dem’s job since 2006 and yet, what concerns me about getting too complacent that Republicans will benefit is that the Republican numbers are not rising that much. Steady may win the race, but only by default by the other side.

    And I wouldn’t underestimate the Democrat thugs after Obamacare…

    I’m an independent who cheered for each electoral GOP victory and supported Republicans at every turn – it was like a dream to see the Dems crushed in 2004.

    After 8 years of Clinton and 4 of Bush ‘Read My Lips’ Sr., it was almost too good to be true… and then it was.

    I was dismayed at the colossal lost opportunity that were the W Bush years, and I really wanted to like the guy.

    Instead of a historic continuation of the Reagan revolution I watched a Republican majority toss most conservative fiscal principles and leave some dirty footprints on the idea of limited Government and utterly destroy the GOP brand.

    It was the most painful bait and switch in my life time, and I believe that is what killed the GOP with independents.

    That’s how you get an inexperienced 1st term Senator with known radicalism in his background and NO executive experience in the White House in 2008. That year, America DID toss the bums out and replaced them with psychopaths.

    I know many independent friends who are like me, far more conservative than the Republican national party. Fiscal conservatives who revere the constitution and who want limited Govt and to be left alone.

    Now republicans are in the nasty position of trying to convince people like me that they are now ‘good conservatives’ instead of Bush ‘conservatives’, and that is, I believe, a big part of the skepticism reflected in the steady but flat GOP line in that graph.

    If the GOP hadn’t scorched their brand, the line would be rising as the Dem’s fall.

    To the less politically active independents who only sorta follow this stuff, there is no distinction between ‘good’ republicans and ‘bad’, there is only the sinking feeling that we can’t trust either party to actually represent American values and that we’re out of options. Thus, the Tea Party… and the risks inherent with the rise of a third party a la Perot.

    I’d LOVE to be able to believe and trust in one party and register as such, and I pray that the Republicans can sell their renewed commitment to core principles. It will take principled voting and savvy marketing and PR to pull it off… along with the Dem’s continued disregard for unfavorable polling data as they march onward with their progressive agenda stuffing tactics.

    For the Republicans to win, the Dems have to continue screwing up – and that is not a strong hand to play, but they hold the majority and so it is.

    Right now, after recent electoral victories, especially in NJ, I’m guardedly optimistic that the GOP has seen the light and America is ready to believe again in the GOP. I’ll still vote R, even if for a RINO in the general election, if only because the enemy of my enemy is my ‘friend’. But that won’t go on forever. At some point a party that keeps putting up RINO’s is not a party worthy of support.

    What I hope happens is that national level R’s like DeMint and others communicate this R revival and connect with voters – and that RINO’s discover that getting electoral dominance for the GOP is not about watering down principles and being Dem-lite…it’s about being better at getting the message across that R’s stand for the majority of American’s core values and that they can be trusted to STICK to their principles in this battle with progressives (especially within the GOP).

    Winning buzz word: common sense conservative.

    All common sense conservatives need to make clear that we are that first and Republicans second and that commitment will resonate with independents who likewise are uneasy about aligning with a party with such a botched recent history of betraying core principles.

    We need a FREE MARKET approach to political parties. I’ve got my values and I’ll buy your party if you deliver value – if you don’t, you’re fired. I’ll take my vote where it will be respected.

    Example: If it wasn’t for Olympia Snowe siding with the dems in the senate early on in the process, might we have been able to prevent Obamacare from being reality today? Hard to say for sure, but the sting of her betrayal is symbolically what is hurting the GOP’s numbers.

    That we now have to worry about McCain or Graham selling us out on Cap and Trade or Immigration reform is salt in the wound. We’re facing an enemy to the Republic with the progressive Dem’s, and defended only by a chain of defense that is as strong as it’s weakest links.

    That’s why we’re angry at BOTH parties. I hate one and can’t trust the other.

    Hey, if selling out conservative principles like RINO’s do to be ‘accepted’ actually worked electorally, then McCain would now be our president instead of the Obfuscator in Chief.

    It wasn’t America loving Democrats in 2006 that cost us the House, it was livid Americans desperate to stop the stupidity and corrupt fools that were running the GOP at the time. It was a move to reduce the GOP power to do further damage.

    it was a ‘lesser of two evils’ vote… and at that time, Dems appeared to too many to be a lesser evil than RINOs and spineless conservatives.

    R’s in the Senate should notice the bump in the polls for the GOP in Congress after their principled stand on Pelosi’s last stand two weeks ago and that over 60% of Americans favor repeal.

    Repeal is NOT a moderate concept. it is a principled stand and COULD be a pillar in a document like ‘Contract with America’ that common sense conservative candidates could publically hold themselves accountable to – that would get the Independent vote, I think.

    Accountability is the opposite of spinless, cowardly ‘get along’ votes the GOP has become too famous for. Frank Luntz’s research seems to validate that idea. Obama dares us to repeal, how about the R’s DARE America to hold them accountable by trusting them ONE MORE TIME in 2010 so we can build for 2012.

    Vote me in 2010 and if I don’t do 100% what I promised, I won’t run next time. Sing a Mea Culpa and MEAN IT GOP.

    Here is the bad news I so hate to even say…

    Given the nightmare that is one party rule now under the Dems, it is a PIPE DREAM that the GOP can take back all branches in 2012 without some serious trust building between now and then. No way independents will go for that outcome when in recent memory, a solid majority for EITHER party meant out of control, unaccountable government trampling all over us.

    For a GOP victory, there is ZERO room for RINO selling out to the progressive threat. Bipartisanship is a SIN when the other side is evil.

    From my view, the two parties are progressive vs. limiited government… the R and D mean little.

    That said, I know the Democrats are without exception my enemy – what sickens me is that I always worry that the GOP is not my friend when I need them the most.

    We’ve got work to do between now and election time to sell the ‘new’ GOP to Independents… it’s an election this country can not afford to lose to the forces of progressivism/collectivism because the other side has shown they can unite when the chips are down.

    Alternately, ALL conservatives should identify themselves by leaving the RINO’s behind and forming a Conservative Party… the few foolish enough to stand by the tattered RINO GOP in that scenario might as well become Democrats – does anyone MISS Arlen Specter???

    Seriously, I hope it doesn’t come to that, but having the public unclear on what to expect from the R brand is a terminal cancer that will eventually destroy the party anyway. Political movements are about passion – and it’s hard to be passionately FOR the GOP when so many RINOs keep selling out.

    If we can’t kick them out, then the RINOs need to grow a spine and vote with the conservatives like the Dems got the ‘blue dogs’ to vote with the leftist progressives.

    The more committed adversary will win… and right now, Pelosi is showing how it’s done – too bad she’s going in the wrong direction from the average American’s perspective, but it is a lesson for the GOP none the less in terms of historic legislative accomplishment.

    I’d respect the RINOs if I saw them line up in the House and Senate with the conservatives and take a vote as fearlessly as the Dems just did on that horrible healthcare bill. Had Republicans done so earlier, we could have stopped this mess last summer when a Republican in the house voted with Pelosi and sold us out for fear of personal political survival. That ONE RINO is ultimately to blame for Obamacare, along with Snowe. Think about it.

    You want to revive the GOP? Then vote lock step to repeal, vote lock step to toss the hated income tax in favor of a Flat or Fair tax and strip away the regulatory stranglehold that is choking up our country at every level.

    Follow an uncompromisingly patriotic path to counter the radically progressive hordes advancing against the Tree of Liberty!

    Such reform, sold correctly, with proof from economic history, would ignite the passion and hearts and minds of the silent majority and energize the GOP in a way that NO RINO wing of the party EVER could.

    Look, if the Dem’s can vote lock step on things that are blatantly defiant to the constitution and prevail, the GOP COULD far more easily vote lock step to champion the constitution and core American values.

    Currently, the lib media and Dems have tarred the GOP as the party of angry wihte men who hate the poor and suck up to the rich.

    it’s time to reveal the report card of what Progressive policies have done to the poor, the minorities, and everyone else in the last 100 years. Rub their noses in it and nullify their propaganda with PROOF.

    It’s time to shout the truth from the roof tops and commit to ALL Americans and show the benefits of limited Government and the prosperity and good times it could bring if 100 years of progressive bloat were cast off our shoulders.

    You want jobs in American and reverse the debt tide? Eliminate tax on capital gains and regulatory burden and make the US a business and tax haven relative to the foreign anti-business countries.

    Reagan was right. Get the Govt out of the way – if the GOP get’s its majority again in 2012 and DOESN’T make good on that new morning in America, I predict that someday the GOP or the USA will be finished as the founders intended us to be. After the Bush years, the GOP gets only ONE more chance to do the RIGHT thing in my book and we’ll know by 2014.

    If you want the revival of America to succeed, George Washington can’t keep getting stabbed in the back by the Benedict Arnold’s in his own party. United we stand, divided we fall, it’s that simple.

    In the Dems case, it’s united they fall, but that’s the price of being on the wrong side of America’s independent spirit.

    That is my Declaration as an Independent!

  • Aaron Gardner

    But that would require actual work, it’s much easier to just stay an independent and complain about how broken the Republican party is.

  • gbenton

    I do vote Republican personally, but at the same time, respect and loyalty need to be earned.

    I’ll do my part and I want to encourage the GOP leadership to read these polls and see the challenge from the perspective of the independent voter, who Rasmussen appears to show aren’t willing to put an R next to their name.

    Tolerance for RINO’s and blind loyalty to the party got us where we are now. Just as there is tyranny when the government doesn’t fear the people, there is corruption of values and betrayal by a party when they don’t fear electoral loss when they don’t stand for what they sell at election time.

    To your point, I agree that without action to support reform in the GOP on the ground level, my rant by itself risks being arm chair just activism. Thank you for that… I’ll do my part, too

  • Aaron Gardner

    You have no lasting impact on the GOP as long as you aren’t in the party, and I mean a voting member, aka precinct committeeman.

    Your influence as an independent is limited to the one month run up to the election.

    The GOP’s support of you will be just as fickle as your support of them.

    Either engage in the fight, or don’t.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    I’d love to see data supporting that.

  • rbdwiggins

    “middle-class”… It sounds so… normal. However, the Democrats’ use of the term is class-warfare of the highest order. What other purpose is served by separating Americans into opposing groups based entirely on their economic status?

    It’s much better to call them what they really are: Hard working, patriotic Americans, who live and play by the rules.

  • rbdwiggins

    Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group

    Not a complete ideological breakdown, but you can fill in a few of the blanks with a side-by-side using some of the graphs.

    Clearly, Americans are trending to be more conservative.

  • gbenton

    Aaron Gardner – Most of my post was commentary on the original poll numbers and expressing a strategy for victory. Strategically, I see the lack of conversion of independents into Republicans as Dems fall as a problem that the moderate and conservative wing of the party interpret differently.

    By recognizing the fact that Independents aren’t flocking to the GOP, I hope that reluctance to join the GOP will serve as motivation to do the right thing.

    Conventional wisdom in the lib media and among RINOs is that independents are scared away by conservatives and my post was to show why I thought the opposite is true.

    I agree ‘partisan’ GOP arguments will turn away independents (thus feeding the RINO argument), but that is specifically because the brand itself is tarnished with lack of conservative principles driving the party. Until the GOP fixes that, I don’t see independents joining the GOP to fix it from within.

    Nationally, the country voted in Bush twice… he got the benefit of the doubt and flubbed it. Now the GOP has some explaining to do.

    Nationally, I expect the GOP will work harder to woo independents who don’t forgive RINO transgressions so easily, lest the party go back to sleep and take these voters for granted again. Nationally, its up to the GOP to do that and they better mean it.

    I’m a strategic marketing guy, so I was stating what I thought would ‘convert’ better with independents and give conservatives within the GOP ammunition to fend off the RINO interpretation of Obamacare’s passing.

    I think the way they get independents to listen again is to be less ‘partisan’ and show they understand why the independents are wary of the GOP.

    If conservative leaders in the GOP at all levels say ‘we’re taking over the party because we know the R’s really screwed up before and if you want change, a third party isn’t an option due to electoral reality’. That may be a way to rebrand the GOP. If it stays Bush/McCain, that’s weak.

    That’s a story that could sell to Tea Partiers and others who may prefer a third party. They have the passion – to channel that in the GOP’s favor, they’re objections have to be addressed.

    An essential part of overcoming objections is to agree on the problem…

    The problem is that the GOP wants to be the solution while it has contributed to the problem and a mea culpa is the only way I see the party fixing that incongruity.

    Saying to independents, ‘this time its different’ will fail just as surely as it failed for McCain unless the reform is real. But if you listen to David Frum, the conservatives and ‘far right’ are to blame.

    The whole partisan ‘R vs D’ argument sets up conservatives to lose in this climate.

    That’s because too often I see people arguing Obama vs Bush, and that is a false comparison as Bush was not a conservative. Getting stuck in that argument costs GOP votes and threatens to give Obama re-election because independents had turned away from Bush.

    But that’s a strategic and marketing discussion at the national level for the GOP…

    As for me personally, what am I going to do?

    I am intrigued by your comment that the GOP’s conservative commitment will only be sustained in the run up to the election. Sadly, I agree. Just reinforces the warning I was making about the party itself.

    But like you said, locally, I can’t wait for the GOP to come to me.

    As an independent, individually, it seems I have been part of the problem by not working from within the party to reform. at the local level.. and I appreciate your call to enter that fight.

    I appreciate you making that point. I hadn’t thought it through that way before.

  • Aaron Gardner

    There is only one party that is open to conservatives, and it is the Republican party.

    Instead of rehashing the failures of the moderate wing of the Republican party you should be going to you your local committee meeting to force the mea culpa.

    We, here at RedState, have been pushing for conservatives to do just that since Nov of 08.

    The reform can’t be real unless you participate in it.

  • gbenton

    My other comments are just expressing how the GOP could sell itself to independents and win.

    To be clear, I’m advocating partisan GOP in the sense that it is the only choice, but also taking care to draw the distinction between the Bush/McCain GOP and the Reagan GOP so that the Independents will listen.

    It sounds funny, but I’ve been a partisan independent in that I would NEVER vote for a third party candidate or a Dem, I’ve just been slapped around by the GOP since I was a kid in the 80′s.

    As I grew up, I recall being very confused that I liked the GOP, and yet for reasons I couldn’t figure out, they were totally screwing up. I’ve been on a quest ever since and discovered that I was a conservative and that the GOP wasn’t reliably so at the national level.

    Because of that, when is see polls like the one here, I ‘get’ why the numbers are flat for the GOP when they should be soaring.

    When GOP leaders or candidates sell the party to independents, I just think a nod to the objections they have to identifying with the party needs to be worked into the message for persuasion purposes.

    Too often I’ll see a commentator on Fox get the worst of a debate with a Dem or pundit by failing to differentiate between the Bush years and true conservative GOP vision. In failing to do so, the audience is robbed of the insight and instead tunes out the GOP. Then, the RINOs say, ‘we gotta be more moderate’ and that is throwing gasoline on the fire.

    McCain said he wasn’t Bush, but he failed to explain why and even worse, he actually WAS worse than Bush. He was a double wammy. He was a RINO and was LYING about it. That does not help the GOP recover conservative Americans and directly contributed to the Tea Party movement.

    When I talk with independents who appear to ‘hate Bush’, I find when the learn what the conservative GOP stands for, we have common ground. Persuasion is possible.

    But to get there I have to be willing to agree that I have objections to the Bush GOP, too and start from that ‘non partisan’ perspective, if you will. I’ve used this tactic and gotten people who formerly were anti-GOP to consider Republicans again.

    Many independents only discover they are ‘conservatives’ when a discussion on principles is allowed to happen. The Dem spin in the media and the more obvious failures of Bush make independents think they can’t vote GOP.

    In the past, the Dem’s have largely controlled the ‘spin’ and I’m suggesting a way to message the GOP that could rise above that now that the reality of the Dem’s has tarnished THEIR brand so badly.

    Bush baggage is our greatest adversary in the coming elections, because Obama is doing a great job of being unpopular, but independents don’t know they could have a home in the GOP when they think that means ‘the last 8 years’.

    And they get confused because the Dems chant ‘you don’t want to go back to the status quo’, and no, we don’t. But again, that argument only works because the GOP fails to articulate WHY conservatives are not the Bush GOP status quo.

    It’s too easy for Conservatives to project our certainty on what the GOP means on to a less politically educated ‘independent’ middle. As a marketer, I am focused on how to talk to them so they can be introduced to a ‘new’ GOP and over-write what they know they don’t like about the Bush GOP. It’s a tricky line to walk.

    But you are of course correct, the independents with conservative values have only one home, we just have to build trust with them again by showing how to find the way home and cleaning house before we invite them in the door.

    All I’m saying is that as proven in November of 2008 the GOP partisan message was falling on deaf ears among indy’s. Vote GOP just because…. failed.

    Now that America has been rudely awakened by a series of buckets of ice water by the Dems, some careful messaging on the part of the GOP now may find indy’s more receptive to listen.

    The poll results show the Dems are falling, badly. My entire post has been to explain why the GOP hasn’t been a direct beneficiary from an independent conservative’s perspective.

    At the party level, I’m putting on my marketing hat and saying how I think that can fixed be done effectively, again, as if I were the GOP selling to ME. I’m like a customer telling a company what I want to buy.

    Once again, though, I want to stress that I agree with you. The way for me to take action on that reform is to champion the GOP I believe in from the inside out,. We totally agree on that.

    That said, another thing I can do in terms of discussion and reaching out to GOP leaders via letters etc., I can also contribute by helping to make the case for conservative GOP vs. RINO GOP from the pen of an independent so they see we exist..

    I think we keep going back and forth between my comments on Party strategy and messaging vs. what me, the citizen, should do about it at the local level.

    It’s the difference between contributing to a blog and commenting on current events from a conservative perspective to help change minds and advance the discussion, vs what you do offline to make a difference in your own life for the country. Strategy vs. tactics.

    I totally agree that being partisan at the local level and working within the GOP is the best tactic on the ground for my activism., and I’ll work to bring in more independents by letting them know we can reform the GOP instead of settle for what Bush/McCain etc. offered last time around.

    Thanks for your feedback, I’ve enjoyed the discussion and am a big fan of RedState…

  • texasgalt

    Independents are a lot like moderates- don’t want to get their hands dirty.

    And you are just skillful at a very old philosophy

    Drop the rhetoric, get out the chair and get in the game. Reinforcements are sorely needed.

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    The ball players in the real ball game of politics can’t hear you from up there.

    If you really want to impact the Republican Party, become a precinct committeeman. It’s your civic duty (remember that concept?).

    If you are interested, go to the link below.

    Thank you.
    ColdWarrior
    No More Scozzafavas!
    Get in the ball game.
    Become a Republican precinct committeeman. NOW

  • lastrick

    Performing a correlation analysis on the numbers takes out the guess work. (As an aside, thanks to Rasmussen for providing it in such an easy form.)

    Essentially, I correlated R vs Other, D vs Other and and R vs D for each year. From that you can tell which sets are the highest correlated and decide which ideological group suffered that year. My results:

    2004: R and D identity increased at the expense of Other.
    2005: R and D gave it back to Other.
    2006: D and O took from R at roughly the same rate.
    2007: R and D both took from O (R gains a little larger).
    2008: No positive correlations between any of the groups.
    2009: D absolutely shedding identity to O (correl=-0.93), some small R gains on D.
    2010 (to this point): Too soon to tell, maybe small gain of O at expense of R and D.

    Thoughts: It was suggested above that major parties made gains leading up to election years. That was definitely true in 2004. In 2006 and 2008, Dems have gained identity leading up to elections, while Rs have not (this should not be surprising). Finally, the past two years has been dreadful for Dems — in 2009, Dems fled to the “Other” party; in 2010 both GOP and Dems have moved that way.

  • jdw4america

    I’m was done with sitting on the sidelines and letting others do the hard work. Dutifully, on Election Days past, i’d walk in and pull the levers under R – mainly to cancel out my mom’s automatic Ds. Not anymore – barry and company just used our Constitution for toilet paper and now they mockingly dare us to repeal their precious takeover.

    I’ve made damn sure my kids are registered, and I’m out in the field, getting the folks to join, volunteer and donate. No excuse not to anymore. Those people on the left are dangerous to each and every one of us. If the R is going to mean anything, and this is the year IT MUST, then it’s up to us in the rank and file to make sure that it does. You want conservatives in Congress? You want barry outta there, stop whining and DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT!

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    after learning some bad news.

    Here I am organizing some PCs to recruit more PCs at the Tempe Diablo Stadium in Tempe, AZ on April 15. Americans for Prosperity is hosting it. We want to be able to steer people to the AZ GOP in every county in AZ because there’s a chance someone will be there from neighboring counties. So, wouldn’t it be logical to say “Go to the AZ GOP web site and drill down to your county’s web site.” Yes, if the folks at the AZ GOP were doing their job. (Now, mind you, the AZ GOP was to be one of the “kick off” web sites for Michael Steele’s revamping of the web technologies used by the GOP). No, that’s not possible. The ONLY info right now to the counties is an e-mail link to the various county chairman. That’s it.

    Now the good news. I have been asking them to put info up on the site about the need to become a PRECINCT COMMITTEEMAN. I e-mailed them my stuff and said use whatever you like. They DID.

    Here’s the link:

    http://www.azgop.org/site/c.qtK2KeMSKuG/b.5810129/k.292E/Become_a_Precinct_Committeeman.htm

    I have a call in to them about the county web page links.

    Must . . . keep . . . on . . . them!

    Thanks for all you are DOING!

    ColdWarrior
    No More Scozzafavas!
    Act! Become a Republican precinct committeeman. NOW!

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    I was an English major. :)

  • lukematthews

    Remember this, the “mainstream” Democratic Party run polls use the old percentages to ‘weight’ the poll. They are scared to death with the real numbers coming out of their polling data. PPP is one of the few that is actually using raw, instead of weighted, data, and they are appalled at the findings. People are fleeing the parties for independent voter status precisely because these politicians are so scurrulous in their actions. Bailouts, payoffs, buyouts, earmarks, and downright thuggery are making people more and more uneasy at the political process. There are big CHANGES a coming.