« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

FL-19 Special Election results. [UPDATED]

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 13th, 2010 at 07:55 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

[ANOTHER UPDATE THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BEFORE THIS UPDATE: Deutch wins.]

[UPDATE: On the other hand, Matt Gaetz won his state house race for the GOP.  Every little bit helps.]

Before anybody says anything: yes, I probably should have written about this race more.  Or somebody should have written about this race more.  Anyway, preliminary results here.

Tags:

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    … but I didn’t see a single poll about it.

    Also I’m not sure anything interesting every happened.

    Sadly Deutch didn’t make about a dozen unforced errors like Coakley did, and Lynch didn’t make the kind of noise Brown did.

  • tngal

    For bringing this one up. This has always been a longshot for Lynch(R), given the super heavy dem population in this district. And Deutch (D) had a ton of money… from deep pocket. Lynch didn’t get a whole lot from the R party or big-time money bomb or any of that. Plus the big name newspaper heavily endorsed Deutch.

    This one is out of our hands but we can still steer Hawaii and Pennsylvania! (and NY if Paterson would jsut call for an election!)

  • pilgrim

    The link to check results is
    http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/

  • cabanon

    But from the tone of the posts here is it not looking good?

  • proudgop

    http://twitter.com/Dave_Wasserman

    Early vote results show Deutch (D) will hold Wexler seat, but could end up with <60% in 65% Obama district

  • ktsub

    So far primary results look good for November.

    Tx-17. Bill Flores and TX-23 Canseco are up, both will have money to compete against Dem incumbents. Texans making good choices on these races.

  • Locked and Loaded

    right at the close of today’s show. That was the first I had heard about it.

  • cringinghere

    That link goes to one of the worst designed websites I’ve seen in a long time.

  • earlgrey

    Should we be down about this result? I see rasmussen has Obama approval at 49. Maybe there isn’t as much anger as I was hoping for.

  • WarEagle01

    I really hope all the retirees in that district like it when they’re doctors start dropping them because of Obamacare. What a bunch of idiots.

  • Ausonius

    Do they want to see America dragged down like the Titanic?

    Do they pay any attention to the basic math of the deficits, to the bankrupting pork in the Hell-th Care Bill, to the continual surrender to dictatorships, to the shutting down of space exploration so we can pay the Russians to transport our astronauts (we are talking Florida, right???), etc. etc etc.

    “We get the government we deserve.”

  • pilgrim

    42.8 for Lynch and 53.8 for Deutch and no results from Palm Beach yet.

  • BAW

    I may be grasping at straws but I’m just the lemonade type.

    If I read the results right (and earlier I was using numbers that turned out not to be final results, so a big IF):

    Tonight’s results in Broward County give Deutch 53.8% of the vote.
    Lynch 42.8% so an 11% margin.

    While in 2008, Obama got 67% to McCain’s 32% a 35% margin.

    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Broward/8512/13864/en/summary.html

    Still waiting for Palm Beach numbers but at least for Broward County, IF I’ve got this right, shows a pretty significant change in direction.

  • IJB

    Delwin Jones is the only incumbent GOP TX State Rep. in the runoff that looks like he’ll lose the runoff.

    The other incumbent GOP TX State Rep forced into the runoff, Fred Brown (TX State Rep-14), looks to be coasting to a runoff win.

    I’m wondering what these two did to be forced into runoffs (with one of them apparently losing!)…

  • texasgalt

    Use to be a Dem way back. He got on the wrong side of a struggle for Speaker a few sessions back and has been with not so much influence since. Past time for him to move along – he has to be in his mid 80′s. This one will be a win for a tea party endorsed candidate.

  • zr2x4

    Their were a lot of factors that played a role in the defeat tonight of Edward Lynch.

    -Seniors, Many don’t have rides and can’t drive since their up in age. Also memory can play a role, they could easily forget.I made many calls these past few days on behalf of the Lynch campaign, and discovered the age group we were trying to reach. The birth dates were around the 1920s, and 1930s which just by that; told me that these people weren’t motivated.

    -Media, I checked everyday on google news and the coverage was dull. Didn’t seem special and was an obvious slam dunk for democrats from most peoples point of view.

    -Funding, Lynch was outspent 1.2 million to about 78 thousand?

    -Turnout, this was probably the largest factor that played a role. Out of 111,000 republicans, only 6,000 showed up….

  • texasgalt

    NARAL is going to lose their friend, Chet Edwards. Bout time.

    Everybody say it: There is no such thing as a moderate Democrat.

  • Return to Revolution
  • cabanon

    Obama is power grabbing and steam rolling the Constitution and the Country is plummeting into socialism and only 6,000 republicans out of 111,000 bothered to show up!

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    ….Broward County couldn’t muster more than a few thousand concerned Americans to get out and vote?

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Options were, alas, kind of limited. :)

  • tngal

    I kid you not!!!On April 9th.

    “The Palm Beach County Human Rights Council, which advocates for gay rights and against discrimination based on ?gender identity and gender expression,? told thousands of its members today that Tuesday?s special congressional election is for Democrats only.

    The group sent out a blast e-mail endorsing Democrat Ted Deutch. The e-mail says ?only registered Democrats may participate? in the special congressional election to replace Robert Wexler.

    ?That was a typo. We?re going to correct that,? said the group?s president, Rand Hoch.”

    http://www.postonpolitics.com/tag/ed-lynch/

    Hah! A dem only vote, that’s rich. Actually, I’m pleased with the results. When I look at the maps of the precincts that supported Lynch….given his recent “foreclosure” announcement, lack o cash, he did real good. The dems had predicted he was going to be n the mid-60 percent of voters. And of course a third party candidate drew a few hundred votes away that most everyone expected to go to Lynch.

    11 percent difference…with cash and boots this was doable about a month and a half ago. Better than the 30 percent beatdown some (ahem) dems were expecting.

  • tngal

    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Broward/15704/22232/en/summary.html

    from this overview page you’ve got several tabs which breakdown things. Aslo on this page find precincts reporting and it braings up a map of the precincts and which carried each precinct. and one precinct was a tie.

  • the_invisible_hand

    All this means is that the biggest single goal for Republicans has to be our GOTV effort. Republicans must concentrate on this to the expense of everything else if necessary. The more people vote in 2010 the better we will do.

  • IJB

    It”s been amazing the swing to the GOP in these deep Blue districts.

    Again, if a +10-12% swing to the GOP is replicated nationally in November, the GOP would pick up *boatloads* of House seats…

    IOW, FL-19 was actually another good result.

  • zr2x4

    wow what crooks. i almost forgot to add, that BIll Clinton also made a trek down to host a fundraiser for Deutch and Nancy Pelosi also donated $2000.

    Was it wrong for the RNC not to support Lynch? If he was funded a bit more and had the resources to make more phone calls to get out the vote, maybe.
    But i can see how the RNC didn’t want this to be a referendum on November, the chances were low.

  • proudgop

    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/

    He won with 62% when Obama won with 65%?

  • zr2x4

    With all 93 precincts reporting in Broward County, which makes up about 30 percent of congressional District 19, Democrat Ted Deutch got 53.8 percent to 42.8 percent for Republican Ed Lynch and 3.4 percent for no-party candidate Jim McCormick.

    http://www.postonpolitics.com/2010/04/final-broward-numbers-deutch-538-percent-bigger-lead-in-palm-beach-county/

    btw, i thought you couldn’t calculate how much the GOP gained, since it is a special election, turnout was low; and you would expect people to vote with their party.

  • zr2x4

    this seat is temporary and will be fought for again in November. Even if Lynch won he would only hold onto it for 7 months.

  • cwilson

    West Palm Beach County and Broward/Dade Counties (Miami) in the south, parts of Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Lake counties (Orlando), Leon (Tallahassee), Alachua (Gainesville). Duval (Jacksonville) usually leans right, I think; not too sure about Hillsborough (Tampa).

    Basically, the bigger cities, university towns, and whereever the yankee retirees [1] roost tilt heavily leftwards. I wish lefties would stop soiling their own nests, then fleeing to other locales to repeat the process in my home…Hey, Grandma! Didja ever think there might be a REASON you couldn’t afford to keep living up north on a fixed income? Like…the taxes and regulations the drive up the cost of living…which YOU voted for up there, and now vote for down here?

    The Space Coast and the Panhandle usually go 60% or better R. But sometimes, as in 2008, that just isn’t enough. (You don’t think there might have been a bit of…payback…involved when Teh Won killed 20,000 jobs on the Space Coast do ya? huh? When FL already has 11% U3 unemployment; god only knows what the U6 number is.)

    [1] And sometimes the yankee snowbirds, too (part year residents) — there was a story back in 2000 about snowbirds casting ballots both in NY and FL. “What’s wrong with that? I live in both places?” As if that gives them the right to double representation in the House and Senate, and two votes for president…

  • proudgop

    Having last name Lynch in this majority Jewish district was not winnable right there.

    It baffles me why Jewish Americans are such staunch Dems. I see it all time here in NYC

  • proudgop

    You have to be 6 month resident of Florida to be called resident to get tax breaks and people with millions save a whole lot by it

    ask donald trump

  • Raven

    Not the special election. With Murtha dead, there’s no Dem with anything approaching a realistic chance of winning that district.

    And the Senate race is more likely to be either Specter or Sestak just handing the keys to the office over to Toomey than a steal.

  • DONTREADONME

    the number few hundred thousand registered.

  • ktsub

    Terrible effort, this is chalked up to just having a candidate on the board. In this type of district, maybe the theory that low-turnout election is good is wrong. Similar to MA, a high turnout would have helped the GOP. This is a D+15 district, I would not have anyone read ot much into anything.

    Snapshot, and we have known the GOP’s GOTV in recent election cycles is poor, the money was huge issue also.

  • Adjoran

    This was Robert Wexler’s seat – remember him? The obnoxious whiny Clinton apologist from the whole Monicagate period who would appear on any cable show at any time of day or night to defend Clinton? And yet, he was reelected again and again and again, etc., with huge margins and token opposition (if any).

    This is a very BLUE district. Republicans in the district probably wouldn’t even bother if the seat was the only office on the ballot, they regard it as hopeless.

    The low turnout in this district is a good sign for November, and tends to confirm the pollsters reporting a lack of enthusiasm from self-identified Democrats.

    Depressed turnout in a district dominated by older people who are faithful Democrats is something which should give us heart, as it may be a harbinger of turnout in the fall.

  • http://pointvcounterpoint.com reasonsjester

    I signed up for the Ed Lynch newsletter and donated to his campaign. I DID NOT KNOW THAT HE WAS RUNNING IN A SPECIAL ELECTION, I THOUGHT HE WAS RUNNING IN A PRIMARY. I DID NOT KNOW THE ELECTION WAS TODAY. That is terrible campaigning!!! I keep track of all elections, and how this slipped off the radar, I have no idea. I shot out a missive to a tea party group of about 20,000 people this morning that go zero replies, understandably. Didn’t have time to organize the Florida group or anything. Lynch, how about big bold letter on the website – DON’T FORGET TO VOTE IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS ON APRIL 13TH!?!? Sheesh. Is this amateur hour or throwing it to the Dems? I don’t know which.

  • tngal

    was a bit lackluster. And no there was no ”party’ help. The party did not want to invest heavily in what was viewed as a losing proposition. Any help would have to come from grassroots. Several members here made diaries to bring attention to this race. a few other blogsites too but that was about it.

    BUT, and this is important….

    There is a race just a month away, May 18th to fill John Murtha’s seat in Pennsylvania. While Lynch seat was difficult but could have been had with lots of effort, this one can be aquired with a little less effort. The ‘party’ started looking at this while back. Tim Burns is the GOP candidate and Mark Critz is the dem. Just googling critz, burns, and murtha togther and you will find a boatload of stuff on this race, as opposed to the other one which drew little attention. cq politics has the race as a tossup.

    A couple of weeks later (may 22) is another special election in Hawaii district 1. Charles Djou is the R candidate . against 2 dems. Again diaries have mentioned it but you can google a lot on this. The party and the teapartiers are both helping in this race as well. It too will be tough but all pub will help.

    please don’t let those email lists go to waste.

  • hunter

    We keep telling ourselves how angry the voters are, and how the voters hate Pelosi and the democrats and Obama.
    Yet let us be frank: Except for electing a very liberal Republican from Mass., what have we done to change the balance in the House?
    Yes, the Governors are important. Bu last time I checked, they are not voting on bills.
    Our tendency to form spontaneous circular firing squads comes to mind, We seem really good at that.
    Where was the support and guidance for Lynch?

  • IJB

    Still, not bad, though not as good as the +12% swing to the GOP in Broward County alone.

    Even a +6% swing to the GOP nationally would be huge…

  • IJB

    It actually represents a +8% swing to the GOP in the district – Lynch got 27% in 2008, but 35% this time. That’s an *8%* swing.

    Sorry for that…

  • Pingback: grant writer qualifications – M. W. Lit Press | Self Publishing